MLD 2014 Quarterfinals - Montagu Allan - (2)Lahti Pelicans vs. (3)Carolina Hurricanes

[seventieslord]

Lahti Pelicans​

Coach: Eddie Gerard

Marc Tardif -- Nicklas Bäckström -- Viktor Shalimov
Red Hamill -- Scott Gomez -- Jiri Lala
Baldy Cotton -- Patrik Sundstrom -- Chico Maki
Rob Zamuner -- Charlie Burns --Charlie Sands
Bill Ezinicki, RW Alex Burrows, RW Geoff Courtnell, LW (Sands and Zamuner can both play C)

Lou Fontinato -- Bryan McCabe
Niklas Kronwall -- Mario Marois
Percy Traub -- John Van Boxmeer
Alex Pietrangelo

John Bouse Hutton
Don Edwards​

PP1: Tardif - Backstrom - Shalimov - McCabe - Van Boxmeer
PP2: Hamill - Gomez - Lala - Kronwall - Marois
PK1: Burns - Maki - Fontinato - Traub
PK2: Zamuner - Cotton - McCabe - Marois
PK3: Sands/Backstrom/Sundstrom

VS

Carolina Hurricanes

Coach: Alf Smith

Craig Simpson - Craig Janney - Vincent Lukac
Vyacheslav Kozlov - Barry Pederson - Justin Williams
Shayne Corson (A) - Jeff Carter - Sami Kapanen
Dave Tippett - Jordan Staal - Scott Mellanby (A)
Martin Gelinas, Erich Kühnhackl

Kenny Jonsson (C) - Drew Doughty
Roman Hamrlik - Sylvain Cote
Bruce Driver - Phat Wilson
Keith Carney, Bill Juzda

Sean Burke
Jonathan Quick

PP1: Simpson - Janney - Lukac - Hamrlik - Doughty
PP2: Kozlov - Corson - Carter - Driver - Pederson

PK1: Tippett - Staal - Jonsson - Doughty
PK2: Williams - Kapanen - Wilson - Cote
​

Click to read more...

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Awards voting for Lahti Defensemen

McCabe - Norris 4, 9 / AS 4, 9, 14
Fontinato - Norris 7, 9 (no complete All Star voting records in years he got Norris votes)
Kronwall - Norris 10, 13 / AS 11, 14 / 2x WC AS / 1 WC MVP
Marois - Norris 8, 9 / AS 11, 11
Van Boxmeer - Norris 11, 18 / AS 11, 17, 25
Traub - non-NHL. WCHL All Star - 1st, 2nd, 2nd

Awards for Carolina defensemen

Doughty - Norris 3, 6, 9, 11 / AS 3, 6, 9, 12
Johnsson - no NHL awards voting / 1x Best D Olympics / 1x WC AS
Hamrlik - Norris 7 / AS 7, 18
Cote - no Norris / AS 12
Driver - no awards voting
Wilson - non-NHL. Inducted to the HHOF for dominating an amateur league, though it may have been as a player/coach

Doughty is the best defenseman in the draft, but I think Lahti generally has a better defense 2-6.

 

[MadArcand]

I find it interesting (and potentially exploitable) that your best defensive guys are all on the left.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I find it interesting (and potentially exploitable) that your best defensive guys are all on the left.

I think Marois is probably better defensively than Kronwall, or at least similar.

 

[MadArcand]

1st lines:

Centers:

Backstrom:
- Selke 23rd
- PTS: 4th, 8th, 9th
- A: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd
- PTS (PO): 9th
- A (PO): 7th
- playoff PPG: -0.25

Janney:
- All-Star 7th
- A: 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th
- PTS (PO): 6th, 9th
- A (PO): 2nd, 4th
- playoff PPG: -0.07

Both centers are very similar playmaker types that fed great goalscorers. Janney proved to able to mesh with a number of goalscorers (Neely, Hull, Shanahan, Tkachuk, Nolan), Backstrom only played with Ovechkin so far. Backstrom holds a slight regular season edge, however Janney is a much better playoff performer, and we're in the postseason here. Janney was instrumental in several finals runs, while Backstrom's been a part of a chronic playoff choker team.

Left wings:

Tardif:
- WHA All-Star 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd
- WHA PTS: 1st, 1st, 6th, 7th
- WHA G: 1st, 1st, 6th, 6th, 7th, 7th
- WHA A: 1st, 1st, 7th, 8th
- G (PO): 9th
- WHA PTS (PO): 2nd, 4th
- WHA G (PO): 1st, 7th, 7th
- WHA A (PO): 4th, 6th
- playoff PPG: -0.33
- WHA playoff PPG: -0.15

Simpson:
- All-Star 3rd, 4th, 6th, 11th
- G: 2nd
- PTS (PO): 1st
- G (PO): 1st, 2nd
- A (PO): 4th
- playoff PPG: +0.23

Similar pattern, Tardif better in RS (though it was WHA), Simpson much better in playoffs.

Right wings:

Hard to compare. My instinct is obviously that Lukac was better, but then that's biased. I wonder what someone unbiased would say?

Overall I think my top line is clearly better built for the postseason. Regular season swings the pendulum in Lahti's favor, but to lesser extent than playoffs are in Carolina's favor.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

1st lines:

Centers:

Backstrom:
- Selke 23rd
- PTS: 4th, 8th, 9th
- A: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd
- PTS (PO): 9th
- A (PO): 7th
- playoff PPG: -0.25

Janney:
- All-Star 7th
- A: 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th
- PTS (PO): 6th, 9th
- A (PO): 2nd, 4th
- playoff PPG: -0.07

Both centers are very similar playmaker types that fed great goalscorers. Janney proved to able to mesh with a number of goalscorers (Neely, Hull, Shanahan, Tkachuk, Nolan), Backstrom only played with Ovechkin so far. Backstrom holds a slight regular season edge, however Janney is a much better playoff performer, and we're in the postseason here. Janney was instrumental in several finals runs, while Backstrom's been a part of a chronic playoff choker team.

Backstrom barely played with Ovechkin at even strength in 2013-14 and did just fine. Also, obviously didn't play with him in the Olympics, and has generally put up good stats there. Yes, I do think his raw stats are a little inflated by usually playing with Ovechkin though.

Janney put up great playoff stats next to power forward types. But he's also one of the softest, if not the softest, players in the entire draft. Are any of his linemates capable of protecting him from NJ's extremely physical group of defensemen?

Left wings:

Tardif:
- WHA All-Star 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd
- WHA PTS: 1st, 1st, 6th, 7th
- WHA G: 1st, 1st, 6th, 6th, 7th, 7th
- WHA A: 1st, 1st, 7th, 8th
- G (PO): 9th
- WHA PTS (PO): 2nd, 4th
- WHA G (PO): 1st, 7th, 7th
- WHA A (PO): 4th, 6th
- playoff PPG: -0.33
- WHA playoff PPG: -0.15

Simpson:
- All-Star 3rd, 4th, 6th, 11th
- G: 2nd
- PTS (PO): 1st
- G (PO): 1st, 2nd
- A (PO): 4th
- playoff PPG: +0.23

Similar pattern, Tardif better in RS (though it was WHA), Simpson much better in playoffs.

I think Simpson's playoff production is more than a little bit affected by the fact that he played on the dynasty 80s Oilers, right?

Right wings:

Hard to compare. My instinct is obviously that Lukac was better, but then that's biased. I wonder what someone unbiased would say?

Overall I think my top line is clearly better built for the postseason. Regular season swings the pendulum in Lahti's favor, but to lesser extent than playoffs are in Carolina's favor.

Doesn't seem like either of us has time for a detailed comparison, but the thing is that Lukac performed well in the depleted CSSR domestic league of the early 80s, but internationally didn't see to do all that much - definitely not as much as Shalimov or his (at the time) countryman Lala.

 

[MadArcand]

Backstrom barely played with Ovechkin at even strength in 2013-14 and did just fine. Also, obviously didn't play with him in the Olympics, and has generally put up good stats there. Yes, I do think his raw stats are a little inflated by usually playing with Ovechkin though.

Janney put up great playoff stats next to power forward types. But he's also one of the softest, if not the softest, players in the entire draft. Are any of his linemates capable of protecting him from NJ's extremely physical group of defensemen?

Yeah Janney was mega-soft. Much softer than Backstrom, who is rather softish himself. It's also true that neither Lukac nor Simpson are power forwards. However, I don't think those factors are enough to bridge the playoff gulf between Backstrom and Janney completely.

I think Simpson's playoff production is more than a little bit affected by the fact that he played on the dynasty 80s Oilers, right?

His dominant playoff run was post-Gretzky/Coffey/Fuhr and thus not really in the dynasty era. Injuries ruined him soon after that.

Doesn't seem like either of us has time for a detailed comparison, but the thing is that Lukac performed well in the depleted CSSR domestic league of the early 80s, but internationally didn't see to do all that much - definitely not as much as Shalimov or his (at the time) countryman Lala.

Well, Lala would get more icetime by default, as he was Czech. Shalimov has better case here. I also disagree about the persistent depleted league myth, but you already know that.

 

[MadArcand]

2nd lines:

Centers:

Gomez:
- All-Star 8th, 10th
- Selke 25th, 45th <- WTF?!
- A: 1st, 8th
- A (PO): 6th, 7th, 9th
- playoff PPG: -0.04

Pederson:
- All-Star 3rd, 4th
- Hart 12th
- Selke 10th, 11th, 15th, 31st
- PTS: 5th, 6th
- A: 3rd, 6th
- PTS (PO): 3rd
- G (PO): 3rd
- A (PO): 4th
- playoff PPG: +0.60

I don't think there's any comparison here. Pederson absolutely demolishes Gomez in every way imaginable. Much better goalscorer, much better defensive player and vastly superior playoff performer (although Gomez is in no way a choker).

Left Wings:

Hamill:
- G: 3rd, 5th, 9th
- playoff PPG: -0.40

Kozlov:
- All-Star: 16th
- PTS (PO): 8th
- G (PO): 8th
- playoff PPG: -0.05

Hamill is the better goalscorer (in RS) and much more physical. Alas, he's also worse overall offensively, worse defensively and an absolute playoff choker.

Right Wings:

Williams:
- Conn Smythe
- PTS (PO): 2nd, 6th, 6th
- G (PO): 2nd, 10th
- A (PO): 3rd, 4th, 7th
- playoff PPG: +0.03

Lala is definitely stronger offensively. Williams is better defensively, and also a true playoff warrior.

Again, my 2nd line is much, much better in playoffs, and in fact overall too, even if one considers Lala better than Williams, as Pederson is much better than Gomez and Kozlov than Hamill.

 

[MadArcand]

3rd lines:

Centers:

Sundstrom:
- Selke 9th, 13th, 16th
- PTS (PO): 9th
- A (PO): 10th
- playoff PPG: -0.17

Carter:
- All-Star 6th, 10th, 11th
- Hart 10th, 23rd
- Selke 17th, 24th
- G: 2nd, 4th, 7th
- PTS (PO): 2nd
- G (PO): 1st, 2nd, 10th
- A (PO): 3rd
- playoff PPG: -0.07

Sundstrom is better defensively, but Carter is no slouch himself. He's also significantly better offensively, and really turns it on in the playoffs. Overall easy comparison in Carter's favor.

Left Wings:

Cotton:
- A: 7th
- PTS (PO): 9th
- G (PO): 9th
- A (PO): 3rd, 6th, 7th
- playoff PPG: -0.11

Corson:
- All-Star 17th
- G (PO): 8th, 10th
- playoff PPG: +0.02

Cotton is better defensively and better playmaker, Corson more physical and better goalscorer. Corson might elevate his playoff performance more, but I think Cotton is also good in the postseason. Slight advantage for Cotton.

Right Wings:

Maki:
- PTS (PO): 4th
- G (PO): 7th
- A (PO): 1st, 8th
- playoff PPG: -0.05

Kapanen:
- All-Star: 14th
- Selke: 57th
- playoff PPG: -0.15

I think Maki is better defensively, but Kapanen is solid as well. I'd consider Kapanen slightly better in RS offense, but Maki has a very solid playoff run to his credit. I think Maki is better overall here.

I think your line is more checking-line oriented than mine (I leave that role to my 4th line). Offensively, my line has a definite edge, courtesy of Carter. It's also Carter that's the best playoff performer here, though overall it's somewhat close.

 

[MadArcand]

4th lines:

Centers:

Burns:
- playoff PPG: -0.12

Staal:
- Selke 3rd, 8th, 13th, 14th, 28th, 29th, 58th
- playoff PPG: -0.08

Both are very strong defensively, with edge to Burns I think. Offensively, Staal has the edge.

Left Wings:

Zamuner:
- Selke 7th, 13th, 26th
- playoff PPG: -0.13

Tippett:
- Selke 9th, 11th, 13th, 25th
- playoff PPG: -0.01

Both good defensive players, but I'd give slight edge to Tippett defensively, and in playoffs too.

Right Wings:

Sands:
- G: 8th, 10th
- A: 8th
- PTS (PO): 6th
- G (PO): 7th
- A (PO): 6th
- playoff PPG: -0.14

Mellanby:
- Hart 22nd
- G (PO): 8th
- playoff PPG: -0.19

Sands has the edge defensively and in playoffs. Mellanby's strengths are physicality and longevity. I think Sands has overall edge here.

I think the lines are pretty much even overall, mine having the offensive edge, your defensive.


Overall, I think my forwards are notably better offensively and in the playoffs. My center depth is also much stronger - I think only Bacstrom would make my squad, and even that on the 4th line. I think you have the edge defensively, though.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Heh, easier to have a good "percentage change" into the playoffs when you are starting from a much lower position. I mean, hard to go anywhere but up from where Dave Tippett starts... oh wait, he doesn't even do that.

I like the "even if one considers Lala better than Williams" line.. Haha, of course he's better - way better.

 

[seventieslord]

Carter is not anywhere near the overall player Sundstrom is! Sundstrom's percentage scores are a tad better, and he's far, far better supported as a defensive player, penalty killer and all around warrior. I'm surprised TDMM didn't jump on that one.

 

[MadArcand]

Heh, easier to have a good "percentage change" into the playoffs when you are starting from a much lower position. I mean, hard to go anywhere but up from where Dave Tippett starts... oh wait, he doesn't even do that.

Well, the immense offensive threat that is Rob Zamuner starts from like within 0.03 PPG off Tippett.

I like the "even if one considers Lala better than Williams" line.. Haha, of course he's better - way better.

Sure, if you completely ignore defensive ability, of which Lala has none.

 

[MadArcand]

Carter is not anywhere near the overall player Sundstrom is! Sundstrom's percentage scores are a tad better, and he's far, far better supported as a defensive player, penalty killer and all around warrior. I'm surprised TDMM didn't jump on that one.

Indeed, he's not anywhere near Sundstrom, as he's much, much better. I'm surprised that someone as stats- and especially awards-based as you would claim that, actually. Or do you suppose being top-10 in Hart voting and leading the playoffs in goals is chopped liver at this level?

 

[seventieslord]

Well, the immense offensive threat that is Rob Zamuner starts from like within 0.03 PPG off Tippett.


Sure, if you completely ignore defensive ability, of which Lala has none.

Williams is nothing special defensively at all.

Indeed, he's not anywhere near Sundstrom, as he's much, much better. I'm surprised that someone as stats- and especially awards-based as you would claim that, actually. Or do you suppose being top-10 in Hart voting and leading the playoffs in goals is chopped liver at this level?

I prefer the larger 6 year prime sample, actually, not what happened in 20 games.

And how many Hart votes did Carter actually get?

 

[MadArcand]

And how many Hart votes did Carter actually get?

Uh-huh. Because 3x top-7 in goals indicates a player inferior to a player with no offensive resume to speak of at all.

And Williams is above-average defensively, Lala is complete non-factor.

But why am I even arguing that nonsense? Your mind seems to be set that a team with #2 center worse than my #4 and #1 center barely above my #4 is better. Suit yourself.

 

[seventieslord]

Points > goals. Surely you know this. Sundstrom was a better point producer than Carter.

Scouting reports from throughout Williams' career paint him as average - at the best of times. And he's the second weakest offensive player on a scoring line in this draft.

You didn't answer me by the way. How many Hart votes?

 

[seventieslord]

Also, I didn't comment on which team was better. I just came in to reply to an outlandish comment.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

This is a really bad matchup for Carolina. Probably the softest top 6 group of forwards in the draft against arguably the most physical group of defensemen in the draft.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I also fail to see what makes Craig Janney any better than Scott Gomez

Both are guys who live off their playmaking. Neither anything special defensively. Gomez is far from tough, but he plays with a chip on his shoulder, while Janney is just downright soft.

Gomez's 7 year VsX weighted score is 68.1 Janney's is 67.9.

Gomez's 10 year VsX weighted score is 64.3. Janney's is 62.0

Gomez put up his best numbers centering Alexander Mogilny, then Patrik Elias, then Brian Gionta.

Craig Janney is best known for centering Cam Neely, then Brendan Shanahan.

 

[seventieslord]

I also fail to see what makes Craig Janney any better than Scott Gomez

Both are guys who live off their playmaking. Neither anything special defensively. Gomez is far from tough, but he plays with a chip on his shoulder, while Janney is just downright soft.

Gomez's 7 year VsX weighted score is 68.1 Janney's is 67.9.

Gomez's 10 year VsX weighted score is 64.3. Janney's is 62.0

Gomez put up his best numbers centering Alexander Mogilny, then Patrik Elias, then Brian Gionta.

Craig Janney is best known for centering Cam Neely, then Brendan Shanahan.

...well, I guess playoff scoring is one thing.

Gomez achieved better team success, Janney was definitely the better playoff point producer. Maybe the two wash out, though.

also, if you look at HR's adjusted points, Janney's ahead in his best 3, 4, 5, 6 seasons or whatever you want to use. Despite (what I believe is) a bit of a disadvantage to him using that metric. VsX has him behind only because of a few brutal benchmarks that were chosen.

Anyway, your point is well-made. They are pretty close.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Top adjusted points seasons, based on hockey-reference

Gomez: 82, 80, 76, 76, 67, 62, 61, 61, 60, 54
Janney: 85, 82, 78, 76, 76, 60, 54, 52, 51, 47

I see very little to choose from.

Janney's early years in the late 80s are probably over-adjusted, but his best adjusted season is the wacky 92-93 year, for what that's worth.

 

[MadArcand]

Points > goals. Surely you know this. Sundstrom was a better point producer than Carter.

So he was better offensively & defensively yet never received a single All-Star vote while Carter has three top-11s? Ooookaaay.

@TDMM: Janney is also better goalscorer. And if you think a matchup vs. your pylon-filled defense is very bad, go ahead and do so. I trust the voters will see the defensively inept pylon on your top pairing and not go ******* over his physicality (which is useless vs. fast players given his lack of hockey IQ, positioning and speed).

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Best adjusted goals seasons:

Janney: 23, 20, 19, 19, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11
Gomez: 33, 21, 18, 17, 16, 15, 15, 14, 13, 11

Both are pretty crappy as goal scorers, but they seem similarly crappy, outside of Gomez's outlier year in 2005-06

 

[seventieslord]

So he was better offensively & defensively yet never received a single All-Star vote while Carter has three top-11s? Ooookaaay.

@TDMM: Janney is also better goalscorer. And if you think a matchup vs. your pylon-filled defense is very bad, go ahead and do so. I trust the voters will see the defensively inept pylon on your top pairing and not go ******* over his physicality (which is useless vs. fast players given his lack of hockey IQ, positioning and speed).

Three top 11s? How many votes? Never mind, you don't like answering that.

It's like you are time warping from 2010, using arguments that may have flown back then. For what it's worth, I regret any part I may have played in legitimizing such nonsense.