Value of: Mitch Marner this offseason (2.5 mil retained)

[lanceuppercut75]

I'll play:

Toronto:
Hronek
Mikheyev
Raty

Vancouver:
Marner
Timmins

Take Liljgren instead of Timmins instead and gave us a 2nd rounder or half-decent prospect. Or take Liljegren AND Timmins.

Marner
Liljegren
(Timmins if you want)

for

Hronek
Mikheyev
Raty
2nd or half-decent prospect

 

[lanceuppercut75]

A (good) 3rd liner and a bottom pairing defender for a 1st line winger, how ever could the Leafs say no

Also the defenseman is a UFA on July 1st.

 

[KevinRedkey]

It's unlikely he's traded without an extension in place.

They definitely don't say yes. You can get a 1st and a prospect for a rental at the deadline easily let alone a full season and or extension

If the Leafs ask Marner to waive his NMC, and he agrees - what motivation does he have to sign an extension, just for the Leafs to benefit more?

No extension = he stays with the Leafs or gets traded to a team he's cool with for a lesser package (and thus gets traded to a better team).

The only way I see him signing an extention is if he asks for the trade, and not the Leafs.

 

[4thline]

If the Leafs ask Marner to waive his NMC, and he agrees - what motivation does he have to sign an extension, just for the Leafs to benefit more?

Securing an 8 year deal with an organization that will pay him what he wants, where he wants to be seems like a pretty good motivation

 

[KevinRedkey]

Securing an 8 year deal with an organization that will pay him what he wants, where he wants to be seems like a pretty good motivation

If that's team is where he wants to be, then he'll have asked for a trade. Because otherwise, he'll just become a UFA and do that on his own regardless.

 

[Legion34]

If the Leafs ask Marner to waive his NMC, and he agrees - what motivation does he have to sign an extension, just for the Leafs to benefit more?

No extension = he stays with the Leafs or gets traded to a team he's cool with for a lesser package (and thus gets traded to a better team).

The only way I see him signing an extention is if he asks for the trade, and not the Leafs.

????? Because then he has gauranteed money and if he gets injured/has a bad year he doesn’t lose money.

Lots of players cost themselves lots of money every year playing it out.
Most players want to sign in the summer.

 

[Legion34]

If that's team is where he wants to be, then he'll have asked for a trade. Because otherwise, he'll just become a UFA and do that on his own regardless.

It’s much more complicated than that

1.) you lose the 8th year
2.) it’s not about who is “asking for the trade”. They are having contract talks. The leafs can say
-we aren’t signing you. You can’t talk to other teams. So either a. Let’s work out where you would want to go to get you that 8th year. Plus you can do it now so they don’t spend their money. Teams just don’t wait in case a player is available.

The idea that Marner. Who has a literal security team that is monitoring social media and trolling fans. (Rocketsecurity) would spend a lame duck year here is insane. I guess he may do it. But he’s not built for that.

Also. Has there been any actual offers here?

 

[CanadienShark]

The reason why Toronto is trading him away is precisely the reason he wont fetch much in a trade. Hes essentially a rental, hes expensive currently and if you want to resign him, itll be for a lot. And in the playoffs hes going to be a complete non factor or even a liability

The best fit would with a offensive starved team.

The article with trade ideas did bring up an interesting trade. Marner for Adam Larsson + Shane Wright. Seattle needs the offense bad. Larsson brings much needed defensive ability to the Leafs and Wright is sold young prospect and can be developed into a 2 way player in time

I think that's a dream come true type of offer for Toronto. Seattle would be crazy to do it.

 

[Fatass]

Bottom line, he’s not playing for some irrelevant US team. He’s playing with one of the few that can and will make his life hard if they so choose.

He will not win in a stalemate with the organization.

It’s not a stalemate. Marner has all the control. There is literally nothing the Leafs can do unless he agrees.

 

[BM14]

It’s not a stalemate. Marner has all the control. There is literally nothing the Leafs can do unless he agrees.

You clearly see this from the POV from an entry level so I no longer expect you to understand the amount of pressure a team can exert, especially one of the most influential teams/brand in hockey.

 

[Rec T]

Some team will want a superstar/best player to build around or take them to the next level. I hope that team is willing to participate with pieces the Leafs want.

The problem with that is that all the other GMs in the league 'know' that Marner holds the cards here. They may not bend Toronto over the desk with absolutely no lube, but they aren't going to give up the farm for him either. They probably won't play absolute hardball as the GMs are an 'old boys club' and they won't want to potentially damage future relationships ... too much. But they certainly will take advantage of all the, oft listed in the thread, negatives that Toronto has to work with when trying to deal Marner.

Will he get 'something'? Sure, but I really doubt that it will be as much as Leafs fans are expecting. Time will tell.

 

[TheDoldrums]

The Leafs have a very good club. They are expected to win most games. Putting winning second to management decisions would lose the room.

Dude, Marners security team is literally trashing Leafs players, the organization and fans on social media.





They are not going to lose the room by theoretically ostracizing Marner. The well has been poisoned. And the team would still make the playoffs if he just disappeared.

It doesn't matter, he will be moved. It's in everyones best interest. Both the player and team are tired of each other.

 

[Ulysses31]

tbh i think marner plays this yr without an extension. leafs gonna say "earn it, prove it ".

small chance marner camp folds n signs the nylander deal but not a penny more.

highly doubt hes traded.

 

[Fatass]

Dude, Marners security team is literally trashing Leafs players, the organization and fans on social media.





They are not going to lose the room by theoretically ostracizing Marner. The well has been poisoned.

It doesn't matter, he will be moved. It's in everyone’s best interest. Both the player and team are tired of each other.

Imo that isn’t actually the security company. That’s just some Toronto fan using that company’s name. An actually company wouldn’t post on chat sites.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Imo that isn’t actually the security company. That’s just some Toronto fan using that company’s name. An actually company wouldn’t post on chat sites.

The security company is just one guy. Why are you talking like you have any understanding of the situation man? Local people have more insight than you.

 

[GTA]

Imo that isn’t actually the security company. That’s just some Toronto fan using that company’s name. An actually company wouldn’t post on chat sites.

Some Toronto fan that Marner follows?

 

[Fatass]

Some Toronto fan that Marner follows?

Where is the evidence Mitch Marner is involved in the chat room? Where is the evidence his security company is involved?

 

[conFABulator]

The problem with that is that all the other GMs in the league 'know' that Marner holds the cards here. They may not bend Toronto over the desk with absolutely no lube, but they aren't going to give up the farm for him either. They probably won't play absolute hardball as the GMs are an 'old boys club' and they won't want to potentially damage future relationships ... too much. But they certainly will take advantage of all the, oft listed in the thread, negatives that Toronto has to work with when trying to deal Marner.

Will he get 'something'? Sure, but I really doubt that it will be as much as Leafs fans are expecting. Time will tell.

I think the trade I am suggesting already reflects that the Leafs will not get top value, but I don't think this is as much of a ransom situation as you make it out to be.

Do you really think that Marner wants to play a year in Toronto when fans know he blocked a trade and will leave after the season for nothing? He doesn't seem like a guy that wants that in his life. The value will be reduced because we will be working with a small group of teams/cities he would consider signing an extension in, but you just need one team to overpay or think another team will to extract value.

My trade proposal is a prospect with a lot of questions (Wright), a solid middle pair defender with one year to UFA (Larsson), and another solid middle pair d-man with a couple of years left on a decent deal (Oleksiak).

In exchange, Seattle gets a top right winger and perennial all-star that plays in all situations and may even up his game away from the fishbowl. They get him for nine years and the first year at $3M in cash. He is the best player in the deal by a wide margin. The Leafs also include a middle pairing RFA D-man that lines up with the Seattle timing. Kampf is a useful bottom sixer too.

Maybe Utah with something that includes some combination of Ingram, Keller, Cooley, Doan, Barrett, and Durzi makes more sense. Again, the best player in this deal is Marner. Players of this caliber don't get moved often..who was the last one? Eichel and his neck injury? He got a good return for Buffalo.

 

[KevinRedkey]

????? Because then he has gauranteed money and if he gets injured/has a bad year he doesn’t lose money.

Lots of players cost themselves lots of money every year playing it out.
Most players want to sign in the summer.

If that were true, most players would sign a deal as soon as they are eligible (the year before they become a UFA). It does happen that a player sings early, but the opposite is significantly more common.

 

[Legion34]

If that were true, most players would sign a deal as soon as they are eligible (the year before they become a UFA). It does happen that a player sings early, but the opposite is significantly more common.

Most players live in fear of not getting the next contract. They would sign immediately if they could. Most are a dime a dozen replacement level.

Marner isn’t most. He is a star.
Most star players do. Though. Many will be upset they can’t get a deal done.

Going into the last year isn’t what most players want to do.

IF Marner isn’t staying. The most likely and logical thing to do is to tell Toronto where he may want to go. They work out a deal and Marner goes there.

Your suggestion is Marner

1.) knows he is leaving Toronto, so he will have to sign somewhere else anyway
2.) purposely decides to put himself in a situation where he cannot get 8 years
3.) risks getting injured for no money
4.) puts up with media scrutiny and becomes public enemy number 1 in his hometown forever.

For what? Delaying the inevitable for 12 months? What if his wife gets pregnant. Now you are moving with a young kid?

It’s just a silly idea really.

If the team makes it clear you aren’t in the plans/there is no deal to be made. Why would you possibly refuse to move and come back?

The PP sucked. What if Marner is off the pp this year.

It’s just a bizzare plan.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

If the team makes it clear you aren’t in the plans/there is no deal to be made. Why would you possibly refuse to move and come back?

The PP sucked. What if Marner is off the pp this year.

It’s just a bizzare plan.

I can see a situation where there is currently no fit at this time. No team that he would waive for, that is interested in his services due to cap-constraints. Rather than waiving and signing longterm for a team that is not in his interests, he could see out his contract then try again next offseason as a UFA, when there may be more teams interested that fit his desires.

 

[norrisnick]

You clearly see this from the POV from an entry level so I no longer expect you to understand the amount of pressure a team can exert, especially one of the most influential teams/brand in hockey.

They can exert all the pressure they want, but they're still going to pay him $11M and/or trade him somewhere he agrees to go to. Don't forget they are operating under a mutually agreed upon CBA and Marner would have the full weight of the NHLPA behind him should the Leafs try anything untoward.

Teams start f***ing around with guaranteed salaries and/or negotiated trade/movement clauses and they are going to get slapped down.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Most players live in fear of not getting the next contract. They would sign immediately if they could. Most are a dime a dozen replacement level.

Marner isn’t most. He is a star.
Most star players do. Though. Many will be upset they can’t get a deal done.

Going into the last year isn’t what most players want to do.

IF Marner isn’t staying. The most likely and logical thing to do is to tell Toronto where he may want to go. They work out a deal and Marner goes there.

Your suggestion is Marner

1.) knows he is leaving Toronto, so he will have to sign somewhere else anyway
2.) purposely decides to put himself in a situation where he cannot get 8 years
3.) risks getting injured for no money
4.) puts up with media scrutiny and becomes public enemy number 1 in his hometown forever.

For what? Delaying the inevitable for 12 months? What if his wife gets pregnant. Now you are moving with a young kid?

It’s just a silly idea really.

If the team makes it clear you aren’t in the plans/there is no deal to be made. Why would you possibly refuse to move and come back?

The PP sucked. What if Marner is off the pp this year.

It’s just a bizzare plan.

1. I didn't make a suggestion at all

2. You seem to be way more fearful of the future than most. The tactics you're using are that of a player agent.

3. Most Star players sign closer to last minute than what you're saying. That's a non-debatable fact. Though (like I said), there are exceptions.

4. It's odd to suggest what is by far the most common occurrence (to not sign early), to be 'bizarre'.

 

[JimmyApples]

Leafs have absolutely no leverage on a Marner trade. NMC, high salary, one year left on his deal, and the player has low value right now.

 

[Legion34]

Leafs have absolutely no leverage on a Marner trade. NMC, high salary, one year left on his deal, and the player has low value right now.

1.) he makes league min next year
2.) any star player in the last year has a defacto UFA as they pick where they sign
3.) you are just saying he has low value.

Insiders disagree.