Value of: Mitch Marner this offseason (2.5 mil retained)

[BM14]

Marner controls everything here. If the Leafs ask him to waive he will likely say for only one team and that he wants to negotiate his next contract with them before he’s traded. The acquiring team knows they’re the only club evolved. They will give Toronto the shaft. Leafs should keep Marner. Better that than making a bad trade.

And Toronto staples him beside Reaves and DeWar for half the season. Marner is not bigger than the team. Good luck getting $11M + after that.

 

[I am Canadian]

A 1st line winger with a 10.5M caphit and a rental to boot as well as a NMC. Leafs probably say yes.

It's unlikely he's traded without an extension in place.

They definitely don't say yes. You can get a 1st and a prospect for a rental at the deadline easily let alone a full season and or extension

 

[Junohockeyfan]

It's unlikely he's traded without an extension in place.

They definitely don't say yes. You can get a 1st and a prospect for a rental at the deadline easily let alone a full season and or extension

With 50% retention. Leafs retaining 50%?

 

[seanlinden]

Imo it’s in Marner’s best interest to have a contract with his new club ready to sign soon after any trade. So that would mean he picks where he’s will to go. The Leafs can come to him with several options but ultimately it’s up to Marner which he chooses. Once he’s chosen then the clubs negotiate. I see Treliving, who made that terrible Tkatchuk trade for the Flames, making a similarly poor deal for the Leafs. So keep Marner. Don’t make a bad trade just to make one.

There's a couple of different approaches that can be taken.

1. Leafs ask Marner to give a list of 3-5 teams that he'd like to go to. That list will presumably be 3-5 teams that Marner is interested in signing with; and Leafs trade him to one of those 3-5 teams - Leafs choice.

2. Leafs sit down with Marner and Marner says, "I want to go to this team, and this team only". Leafs try to make a deal with that team, but failing that, he may lose out on the opportunity to join that team.

3. Leafs go and start shoppign Marner without asking him if he'd like to go anywhere specific, and then come to him with a proposal. This isn't really likely, given that it could all be a waste of time given the amount of control Marner has.

As for the Tkachuk trade, Treliving actually did quite well on that one. He got a guy coming off a 115-point season making $5.9m for 1 year. He got a highly regarded 28 year old #2/3 right shot defenceman coming off a 44-point season. He got a prospect who had seen NHL ice, and an unprotected 1st round pick.

The problem(s) with that trade were:
- The subsequent contract that Huberdeau signed.
- The fact that he didn't recognize the possibility/probability of Huberdeau's 115 points being an abberation.
- Possibly prioritizing gettting immediate help (he basically traded 1 immediate impact player for 2) versus guys that might grow into the role.

Even on the evaluation of Huberdeau, it's a little hard to fault him on that. Toss out his 115 point season, over the prior 3 years, he had put up 231 points in 206 games; a 92-point pace.

Tkachuk on the other hand if you throw away the 104 points he had, over the prior 3 years, had 181 in in 205 games, a 72-point pace.

 

[Fatass]

And Toronto staples him beside Reaves and DeWar for half the season. Marner is not bigger than the team. Good luck getting $11M + after that.

No coach is going to do that.

 

[Legion34]

Imo it’s in Marner’s best interest to have a contract with his new club ready to sign soon after any trade. So that would mean he picks where he’s will to go. The Leafs can come to him with several options but ultimately it’s up to Marner which he chooses. Once he’s chosen then the clubs negotiate. I see Treliving, who made that terrible Tkatchuk trade for the Flames, making a similarly poor deal for the Leafs. So keep Marner. Don’t make a bad trade just to make one.

Tre got a 100 pt winger, a top pair D and a first for tkachuk. Huby turned into a pumpkin. Sure. But that was an excellent value deal.

That would be like a kempe/anderson/1st for Marner.

I would take that value any day. There was zero reason to expect Huberdeau would be a 55 pt player. Even if Toronto got a 55 pt player/top pair D would be good.

The issue is hubys contract. Which was fair ish at the time.

 

[seanlinden]

I had a variation of this one a few pages ago and the Sportsnet did a pared down version. Let's try again with some tweaks..

On July 2, the Leafs trade Marner to Seattle and on that day the Kraken sign him to 8 years and $90M. The Leafs will have paid Marner ~$7M as a bonus on July 1. So, Seattle is getting Mitch for nine years at $93M ($10.66 per) although the cap hit is $12.5 for the final eight years.

The trade goes...

Marner
Liljegren (RFA)
Kampf (2.4m)

- for -

Larsson
Oleksiak
Wright

There could be picks back and forth, possibly conditional on the Leafs performance this year.

Why Seattle does this? For Marner, they do it to get a top winger in the game that scores at a 100-point pace consistently, PK, PP and is perennial Selke level defender. He is young, entering his prime and would come off the books before it gets ugly. Liljegren helps soften the blow or giving up two dmen and has a future as a top 4. Kampf is a good, responsible bottom six that the Leafs will miss but is probably overpaid by $750K per year. He doesn't have to be in this deal and the Leafs could keep him or move him elsewhere but I think he adds value for Seattle.

Why the Leafs do this? This is how they turn forward cap into defense cap. Trading Marner and Kampf gives the Leafs two top for defensemen and cap space another $5M dman. Tanev? Liljegren can be top four but the Leafs window is now and this gives them a stronger D, a much stronger D.

Rielly Tanev
Oleksiak Larsson
Benoit McCabe

Wright is a wildcard and without him in here this might be a terrible deal for the Leafs. They are giving away the best player in the deal, maybe even the best two (Liljegren when you consider age and contract) for two older D's one of whom is in his final year of a deal. Wright balances this. The Leafs also have Cowan coming up and he may replace some of what Marner brings some day and this another reason Mitch is the odd man out.

Please don't just say "nope", let me know why "nope".

Close, but I don't think that's the deal if Seattle is the team. A Couple of reasons:

#1. I dont think that the Kraken are all that excited about potentially moving Oleksiak, given that he & Borgen are often their #1 shutdown pair, and I don't think the Leafs would push all that much for Oleksiak, given that he's a left shot.

#2. Shane Wright is certainly an interesting piece, but his lack of upward trajectory has to be concerning. I fear that those struggles may get amplified in Toronto as the "centrepiece of a Marner trade.

If Seattle is the team, I think it would probably be something like Larsson, Bjorkstrand and a pick.

If it were me, and I'm Brad Treliving, I'd probably take a different tact. Do something like Borgen, McCann and a pick / prospect.

 

[BM14]

No coach is going to do that.

Want to bet?

A new coach with a long guarantee with the relatively new GM?

 

[Fatass]

Want to bet?

A new coach with a long guarantee with the relatively new GM?

The Leafs have a very good club. They are expected to win most games. Putting winning second to management decisions would lose the room.

 

[sxvnert]

And Toronto staples him beside Reaves and DeWar for half the season. Marner is not bigger than the team. Good luck getting $11M + after that.

Or make him the new #3 center and put JT on his wing (No PP#1 for either player). Keep him there the entire season. If he dogs it, move him to #4C.

 

[BM14]

The Leafs have a very good club. They are expected to win most games. Putting winning second to management decisions would lose the room.

The Leafs are bigger than Mitch Marner and if he needs to be the sacrificial lamb, then he will be.

 

[Fatass]

The Leafs are bigger than Mitch Marner and if he needs to be the sacrificial lamb, then he will be.

The other players want to win. They know with Marner that gives them a better chance. There’s no chance a coach does what you suggest with Marner.

 

[BM14]

The other players want to win. They know with Marner that gives them a better chance. There’s no chance a coach does what you suggest with Marner.

There 100% is a chance.

The players know better than us keyboard pundits who they can go to battle with and Sunfish Mitch ain’t it.

 

[Fatass]

There 100% is a chance.

The players know better than us keyboard pundits who they can go to battle with and Sunfish Mitch ain’t it.

Bottom line is the players want to win. If they see their coach making decisions that undermine their chances of wining the coach will lose the room. No coach will do what you suggest. Marner earned his full no move. He gets to control the situation.

 

[Drumman44]

If Dubas had been allowed to trade Marner last summer I wonder what he would have cooked up?

 

[conFABulator]

Close, but I don't think that's the deal if Seattle is the team. A Couple of reasons:

#1. I dont think that the Kraken are all that excited about potentially moving Oleksiak, given that he & Borgen are often their #1 shutdown pair, and I don't think the Leafs would push all that much for Oleksiak, given that he's a left shot.

#2. Shane Wright is certainly an interesting piece, but his lack of upward trajectory has to be concerning. I fear that those struggles may get amplified in Toronto as the "centrepiece of a Marner trade.

If Seattle is the team, I think it would probably be something like Larsson, Bjorkstrand and a pick.

If it were me, and I'm Brad Treliving, I'd probably take a different tact. Do something like Borgen, McCann and a pick / prospect.

Thanks for this. I do love getting actual, thoughtful input.

I didn't know how the Kraken felt about Oleksiak, I knew they would like him but didn't know anything beyond that.

I agree on Wright, on all counts...might not be enough of a piece and being "the" piece might be more than he can handle. I guess I was hoping the Oleksiak/Weight factors could offset each other a bit. I don't know enough about the pieces you suggest to offer any valid feedback, though I do appreciate yours.

The hopeful part of me is that the return should hurt the other team a bit, because any trade of Marner we make, we lose. Some team will want a superstar/best player to build around or take them to the next level. I hope that team is willing to participate with pieces the Leafs want.

 

[Martin Skoula]

The Caps we could be a decent match. Marner knows our coach Carbery well and maybe will waive his NTC to join him.
We can offer Tom Wilson, Jensen, and Dowd depending on what the leafs needs are.

What do you guys value Protas at?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

What do you guys value Protas at?

Pretty highly we just signed him to an extension. He has good size and can play center. That said for a player like Marner he could be on the table.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

If Dubas had been allowed to trade Marner last summer I wonder what he would have cooked up?

I’m beginning to think Dubas wasn’t nearly the problem fans make him out to be. I’m of the opinion Shanny made a lot of those core 4 decisions and Dubas got blamed for them.

 

[BM14]

Bottom line is the players want to win. If they see their coach making decisions that undermine their chances of wining the coach will lose the room. No coach will do what you suggest. Marner earned his full no move. He gets to control the situation.

Bottom line, he’s not playing for some irrelevant US team. He’s playing with one of the few that can and will make his life hard if they so choose.

He will not win in a stalemate with the organization.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Too bad Shanny didn’t pull his head out of his ass before July 1 of last year. Nothing happened this year that wasn’t well known last year. It would have been so much easier to be serious about what needed to be done.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Wonder if something around Marner and Ehlers could potentially be done.

 

[Kegs]

A couple of firsts probably. And maybe some throw in pieces or picks.

 

[Drumman44]

Bottom line, he’s not playing for some irrelevant US team. He’s playing with one of the few that can and will make his life hard if they so choose.

He will not win in a stalemate with the organization.

Sitting him or playing him on the fourth line is going to be a great way to piss off his agent and even the NHL PA

 

[BM14]

Sitting him or playing him on the fourth line is going to be a great way to piss off his agent and even the NHL PA

His agent can chew b**** and the PA has zero influence on how players are deployed.