Value of: Mitch Marner this offseason (2.5 mil retained)

[YP44]

No one can afford Marner and he's badly overpaid.
You being up the Kings
They have no cap space and have to sign Byfield and 2 goalies
Are the Leafs going to take PLD back?

Doughty for Marner.
LA re-signs Roy. Marner replaces Arvidsson.

 

[Ignatius]

EK65 from Pittsburgh for Marner

 

[leafsfan2point0]

Zero interest in trading Marner. Especially for trash offers when he’s at the lowest value of his career.

 

[doublechili]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Marner has a full NMC through the end of his contract, right? So he could theoretically just keep saying "no" to deals until 7/1/25 and then walk for nothing. Or he could tell TOR where he'd be willing to go, and that could be 1 team. So, putting a value on him is kind of difficult because it's not a normal market transaction, potentially anyway.

 

[Darren McCord]

Well there's this guy in Pittsburgh who would. He might even think that Bitchy Mitchy and Sid would make the greatest pairing ever.

I haven't paid any attention to the Pens, do they have cap space and the assets needed in a trade?

Cap yes. Assets yes. Assets the leafs fan would want. No.

Marner isn't getting traded. If he does it would be for the haul leafs want. Unless he comes with an extension lower than his current cap.

 

[FiveTacos]

Seemed just fine in the regular season.

Works great in video game hockey too. So what?

Playoffs are different obviously. There's more game planning for specific opponents, no one's pacing themselves for an 82 game grind, almost all guys are more committed to 200ft play, calls aren't as tight, and there's a lot less time and space. Plus you're just generally facing stronger teams.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

whoever acquires him, he gets cranky when he doesn't have his Dino Nuggets and Smiley Fries so stock up

 

[TS Quint]

Works great in video game hockey too. So what?

Playoffs are different obviously. There's more game planning for specific opponents, no one's pacing themselves for an 82 game grind, almost all guys are more committed to 200ft play, calls aren't as tight, and there's a lot less time and space. Plus you're just generally facing stronger teams.

You think the regular season is the same as a video game? This took a weird turn LOL.

 

[molon labe]

Zero interest in trading Marner. Especially for trash offers when he’s at the lowest value of his career.

His value is likely not impacted by this years' playoffs.

His value peaked just before his NMC kicked in. With a full NMC and 1 year left on his deal his value is more about his history and willingness to waive to a certain market.

It's never been lower due to contract length and NMC - not his playoffs. When he goes to sign a new contract? Sure, debate it.

That being said I'd trade for him on the Pens full contract no retention but salary has to go back so it would be take your pick of what is applicable and works.

 

[ottawagm]

Why would he waive his NMC at this point?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Why would he waive his NMC at this point?

I could imagine a scenario where a player accepts a trade f he wants to get out from under the microscope in Toronto. I doubt Marner feels that way, but you never know.

 

[General Fanager]

Doughty for Marner.
LA re-signs Roy. Marner replaces Arvidsson.

You understand that DD is 34 right?

While I agree that Marner's value might take a small hit due to the circumstances, DD straight up just isn't close.

 

[Lt Dan]

Why would he waive his NMC at this point?

Because Stone Cold said so?

 

[General Fanager]

The Leafs need to improve the D and goaltending. Stop searching for more and more offense and get some actual D and goalies who can turn the needle. Too much pressure is being put on the star forwards and when they fail because the playoffs is about D and goaltending and timely scoring, the blame game starts over and over again.

Anderson should have stayed on a team friendly deal. The Canes are very happy with him as a contender but then the Leafs will say Anderson chokes too much in big games. Well, there has been a hell of a lot of choking still happening after Anderson was let go. Stop blaming players and start blaming the roster flaws that have ripple effects to the star players.

8 years to improve the D and goaltending (since the Matthews draft) . Brutal! Dubas was given too much chance over and over again. Most important time in franchise history and they gave the job to a rookie GM learning on the job.

This is incorrect. There are serval reports that Shanny had to approve all deals made by Dubas and said no to several. Dubas wanted to explore changes to the core last year and Shanny killed that idea too.

Dubas for sure has to share in the blame but to lay it all at his feet is just unfair.

 

[hizzoner]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Marner has a full NMC through the end of his contract, right? So he could theoretically just keep saying "no" to deals until 7/1/25 and then walk for nothing. Or he could tell TOR where he'd be willing to go, and that could be 1 team. So, putting a value on him is kind of difficult because it's not a normal market transaction, potentially anyway.

Bang on. All the big 4 got nmc, the term and pay they demanded. Leafs have painted themselves into a corner and the fans must realize that they have no leverage to make changes other than walking away from the player...

 

[ottawagm]

I could imagine a scenario where a player accepts a trade f he wants to get out from under the microscope in Toronto. I doubt Marner feels that way, but you never know.

Maybe if there's a team ready to offer him a long term extension after July 1.

 

[FiveTacos]

You think the regular season is the same as a video game? This took a weird turn LOL.

No, just saying neither is the same as playoff hockey. Two things being different from a third thing does not mean the first two are the same. Just like a horse and a fish being different than a bird does not mean a horse is a kind of fish. And this ends today's lesson in logical reasoning.

In decades of watching hockey I've seen plenty of teams with high end forwards but lacking great dmen do wonderful in the regular season but slow down in the playoffs.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Oh yeah, Ovi's all about heart and leading by example.

Come on now...

 

[seanlinden]

Why would he waive his NMC at this point?

Because players generally don't want to be where they're not wanted; and guys of his "calibre" / pay scale don't really tend to "want" to go all the way to UFA.

The problem with actually going to unrestricted free agency for a premier player, is that teams often have to make their "plans" in advance of it..... approaching UFA, he's going to pick 2-3 teams that he really likes, and if he actually has to wait until July 1, he may find that the cap space on those teams may not be there.

By doign something this year, he'll likely find himself traded with retention, where the team can fit him in and have a year to adjust to paying him $11m.

If Marner was only interested in money, then maybe he'd be fine going to UFA and hoping that Utah or whomever banks up the brinks truck for him.... but he's made a lot of money in his career already... he probably wants a chance to win.

Usually, how it works in situations like this, is the Leafs would tell Marner it's time for a change. He'd pick 2-4 teams that he'd want to go to, and the two sides work it out.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

His value is likely not impacted by this years' playoffs.

His value peaked just before his NMC kicked in. With a full NMC and 1 year left on his deal his value is more about his history and willingness to waive to a certain market.

It's never been lower due to contract length and NMC - not his playoffs. When he goes to sign a new contract? Sure, debate it.

That being said I'd trade for him on the Pens full contract no retention but salary has to go back so it would be take your pick of what is applicable and works.

Trading him is almost a guaranteed loss for the leafs. No interest in trading elite talent. I’d rather resign him and wait for the Tavares contract to run out next year. If for some reason he asked for a trade, I’d take a loss and trade him out West. He’d burn the leafs the rest of his career in the East.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Marner has a full NMC through the end of his contract, right? So he could theoretically just keep saying "no" to deals until 7/1/25 and then walk for nothing. Or he could tell TOR where he'd be willing to go, and that could be 1 team. So, putting a value on him is kind of difficult because it's not a normal market transaction, potentially anyway.

He can do that.

 

[namttebih]

So, was talking to a relative about this and they had a great idea:

Chicago

They have the cap room to cover his contract easily.
Playing on Bedards wing might go a long way in convincing him to waive his NMC to go there.

The question is what can Chicago offer back?

As dangerous as that sounds, that would be a very small line.

 

[T1K]

EK65 +/- minor pieces and cap

 

[namttebih]

EK65 +/- minor pieces and cap

This entire exercise is to shed cap and baggage. What you propose isn't exactly checking either of those boxes. You might even say that it's making the cap situation worse long term. Although it would be pretty entertaining to watch him roll into Ottawa.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This is incorrect. There are serval reports that Shanny had to approve all deals made by Dubas and said no to several. Dubas wanted to explore changes to the core last year and Shanny killed that idea too.

Dubas for sure has to share in the blame but to lay it all at his feet is just unfair.

Sorry but Dubas just didn't get it done. 8 years from when Matthews was drafted and the goaltending/D has not improved. You can try to defend him but it becomes excuses. Both Shanny and Dubas deserved heat.

Hopefully, you can figure it out this summer. Leafs cap does open up a bit and will open up even more for the 25/26 season ($92M cap). With the Coyotes moving to Utah, I see even more revenue and a $100M cap is not far away. I've been saying this for years. Once the NHLPA pays of their outstanding balance, the cap will rise sharply.