Speculation: Mitch Marner Mega Thread Part 5 (Warning in OP)

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Notsince67

Papi and the Lamplighters
Apr 27, 2018
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That is not what happened at all. You made a bunch of incorrect and ridiculous statements and contradictions, and when called out, you dug yourself into a deeper hole that you are now deflecting away from and refusing to answer questions about.

I have said it multiple times and even bolded it in my last post, so I have a hard time believing you just missed only that.

Explain to me how, if the comparables have shifted based on the Matthews signing according to you, how does Marner being signed for 9m/year after 61 and 69 points not shift the comparables for Nylander and Matthews, resulting in a higher total cost for all 3?
An RFA contract is one of comparables. Nylander was done and cooked. Matthews and Marner wasnt. Nylander 61 x 2 points would never be a comparable should Marner merely maintain his 69 point average which was extremely unlikely to happen based on trends. Matthews pedigree was already high so he was pretty well a lock to get a number between Eichel and McDavid. Nobody envisioned he would get a better contract than McDavid (based on UFA years sold). Nylander deserved no more than an inflation adjusted Ehlers....around 6.3 x 7 years. Does that make it clear or should I bold everything?
 

YearlyLottery

The Pooch Report
Feb 7, 2013
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In no world did it make sense to sign Marner to that contract last offseason.

Marner WANTS to be a Leaf which is why Dubas is not caving in to his demands. It is also the reason Marner hasn’t signed an offer sheet. The dude doesn’t want to play for another team, including my Islanders.
 

LEAFANFORLIFE23

Registered User
Jun 17, 2010
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I would hope so. Like I already said, it's just a rumor. If this thread isn't being used to discuss rumors & hypotheticals, what are we doing on page 30 of thread 5?

I don't even believe it is a rumor I believe it is something he pulled out of his ass because it is Julyn7th and all the big guys with real credibilty are on vacation
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
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Lumping everyone who disagrees with you as a “Dubas apologist” and applying p/60 to anything that I said is pretty lazy. I, and many who analyse this stuff have long held that G > A1 >> A2 when it comes to gauging offensive contribution (to the point where A2 is sometimes completely erased as “noise”), so no need to put a stake in the ground on p/60 just because you’ve lumped me into this “Dubas apologist” group you seem to engage with.

I didn’t spend any more time reading your post after that gem, as it categorised you into a group I call “not worth the time”. But with a genuine apology I might consider it.

Btw, a while back we discussed the Evolving Wild contract projections and how you imagined they got it right. I mentioned they wrote a blog post on it stating they use p1 along with term as the strongest indicators of contract value. You said you couldn’t find it, but later at my laptop I googled “evolving wild contract projections blog” and it was like the first hit. Seemed like a lame attempt to stick your head in the sand.

And you’ve never shown me the “Evolving Wild contract projections blog” where they mention P1.
 

LEAFANFORLIFE23

Registered User
Jun 17, 2010
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In no world did it make sense to sign Marner to that contract last offseason.

Marner WANTS to be a Leaf which is why Dubas is not caving in to his demands. It is also the reason Marner hasn’t signed an offer sheet. The dude doesn’t want to play for another team, including my Islanders.

It woulfd also be a very bad idea for them to sign Marner to an offer sheet because Barzal needs a new deal in a year
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

yer leadin me astray
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I don't even believe it is a rumor I believe it is something he pulled out of his ass because it is Julyn7th and all the big guys with real credibilty are on vacation

Do you know the definition of a rumor?
Rumor: a currently circulating story or report of uncertain or doubtful truth.

Reports coming from NHL Network correspondent.....
 

LEAFANFORLIFE23

Registered User
Jun 17, 2010
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Do you know the definition of a rumor?
Rumor: a currently circulating story or report of uncertain or doubtful truth.

Reports coming from NHL Network correspondent.....

The only difference between this"report" and Eklunf is Eklund isn't on TV the credibilty of the "report" is about the same
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,361
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Stamkos has on every single contract taken on average about 2 million less on His contracts he took 8.5 the year after the big players took 10.5. Kinda makes your gm look bad for signing Kane for 7.

The taxes matter. They matter even more when players get completely tax free signing bonuses.

Look at Tampa. Their 3 guys who took giant discounts just happen to be the 3 guys who got the signing bonuses? They just happen to love it the most or are the best team guys? Or tax breaks help. Tax free signing bonuses help a lot

Your team just paid 11.5 for a one legged Karlson. And 7 for Evander Kane. They have nice weather too. Teams that have actually won like LA, chicago and Pitt and Anaheim had to pay top dollar to their stars.

but Tampa/Dallas/Nashville just happen to have the best gms and players that want to be their the most? And those players just happen to be the one with signing bonuses?

Ive actually run the same comparison charts regarding Kane and Karlsson. Kane was slightly overpaid, roughly to the same degree that Nylander was, while Karlsson was significantly underpaid relative to his comparables when you adjust for production. The Sharks have received significant discounts too; look at the contracts that Joe Thornton signed throughout his prime.

Your posts are epic nonsense...my God man, did the Leafs team bus run over your dog or something?

Do you actually have anything valuable to add to the discussion? Or do you just want to try to convince yourself that anybody who criticizes your golden boy must just be a “hater”?

You’ve even got Leafs fans agreeing with me in here on many counts.

Agreed.



I have zero problem with him saying that.



Couldn't you just as easily say he forced Nylander to hold out that long to get him to reduce his demands? Also, this had the side effect of lowering Nylander's cap hit which helps the team now.



Meh, if he's overpaid, it's by a very little amount.



I doubt he said that and he certainly didn't say it publicly. In fact, he publicly said something quite to the contrary (along the lines of "No one knows what will happen in the future..."). I.e., fake news.



These contracts were signed several years apart and can't be compared. The recent comparables were Eichel and Draisatl and Matthews is a superior talent. But Matthews is slightly overpaid, yes.



I have zero problem with him saying that.



Had no choice. Zaitsev demanded a trade. Ceci is a lateral move in that regard and Dubas managed to shed Brown's cap space in the same move plus got a pick. He also managed to trade Zaitsev's remaining 5 years for Ceci's 1 year commitment. In every possible way to look at this deal, Dubas did well.



Someone has to play on the right side this season. Well, I guess we could try some drastic modern age Roger Neilson style experiment and go with a 1 - 4 arrangement the whole season.



He also:

- Signed the most valuable UFA possibly ever available.
- Brought in Jake Muzzin to shore up the defense.
- Moved Marleau's almost untradable contract without losing a roster player or prospect.
- Rightly saw that Kadri was the most valuable trade piece and sacrificed some forward depth to finally address the defense woes and somehow managed to convince the Avs to retain half of Barrie's salary while at the same time trading for Kadri's replacement.
- For the last year these boards have said the Leafs were screwed with their cap situation. Dubas managed to navigate this masterfully while leaving enough space to fight off an offer sheet to Marner.

Dunno, your list seems kinda weak and mine seems kinda strong.

I’m not going to give him credit for holding out on Nylander when he still overpaid him. You don’t give credit to somebody for bringing down a cap hit that is still considerably overpaid. By my calculations, the Nylander overpayment was by about $0.75M (17%). That’s not huge but the problem was it set a precedent that is being followed.

If you want to look at his quote regarding a Nylander trade, it’s here:

“The discussion that William and I had had a couple of times was a fear of his … that he was being signed to be traded,” Dubas told Bob McCown and Stephen Brunt on Prime Time Sports. “And my discussion with him, I just affirmed with him that that was not our intention whatsoever.
“Our intention was that as long as I was here that I saw him as a part of the Toronto Maple Leafs.”

I don’t think we want to get into the business at all of having these young, core pieces of ours, and then going forward and moving them from our team,”

You’re right, not that bad and maybe not worth including. Tough to say what he said to Nylander behind closed doors. If Nylander misinterpreted the situation, that’s still partly Dubas’ fault for not being clear.

Matthews isn’t “slightly overpaid”. It doesn’t make sense to say that Eichel and McDavid were the only comparables, when Matthews isn’t that similar, but if he was, then Dubas should’ve got 8 years and he should’ve paid him closer to Eichel. He didn’t get 8 years and one could argue that 8 years at 16.67% cap hit than McDavid took is more team friendly than the 5 years at 14.63% cap hit that Matthews took. The fact that you can even make that argument between their contracts is absolutely hilarious when McDavid has proven he is in another league from Matthews.

He did have a choice to sign Cody Ceci for more than his qualifying offer. Do your homework. He did not do well in every possible way to look at that deal because he acquired Cody f***ing Ceci and then paid him $0.2M more than his qualifying offer. The fact that you say he did well in every possible way shows that you aren’t ready to hand over criticism to this GM where it is due.

There are defensemen available for $2M who are miles better than Cody Ceci; even left-handed defensemen who would be playing on their off side.

The fact that you don’t have a problem with either of the comments he made to the media shows that you don’t understand how he blew his leverage in negotiations. I think the proof is in the pudding with the actual contracts. As I have said before, these comments weren’t a massively big deal but they were unprofessional rookie mistakes that most GMs don’t make.

Lastly, nobody asked for a list of the good moves that he has made. Somebody asked for a list of the bad rookie mistake type moves and I included them.
 

TomasHertlsRooster

Don’t say eye test when you mean points
May 14, 2012
33,361
25,425
Fremont, CA
Told you how to find it. Sorry on my phone again not going to do basic internet things for you.

Oddly enough, when you Google that with quotation marks, this thread is the only thing that comes up.

It’s a really bad look when you mention something and then can’t cite it. Is this from the same article?

A player who never gets injured, plays a lot of minutes, and “points” is one that teams love historically.

Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason

Are you specifically referencing this article here in which “p1” and “primary points” are never mentioned? Sure sounds like you’re making things up.
 

BoredBrandonPridham

Registered User
Aug 9, 2011
7,573
4,061
Oddly enough, when you Google that with quotation marks, this thread is the only thing that comes up.

It’s a really bad look when you mention something and then can’t cite it. Is this from the same article?



Projecting NHL Skater Contracts for the 2019 Offseason

Are you specifically referencing this article here in which “p1” and “primary points” are never mentioned? Sure sounds like you’re making things up.

Then you didn’t read the article.
 

robertmac43

Forever 43!
Mar 31, 2015
23,655
15,800
There are defensemen available for $2M who are miles better than Cody Ceci; even left-handed defensemen who would be playing on their off side.

Which defense are you talking about? Ceci is by no means a Norris candidate however he played 22 mins a game last year and did alright for being on the worst team in the league. Being in a reduced role in here in Toronto should suit him well.
 

BoredBrandonPridham

Registered User
Aug 9, 2011
7,573
4,061
“P1” and “primary points” literally do not exist in that article. I searched it.

This is a very bad look for you.

Try reading. It’s brutal you can’t even read an article on a topic you seem so interested in from a projection model that you brought up yourself in previous discussions about this. I guess it’s easy to Just mindlessly tip on a team but when it turns out you need to read the sources you bring up yourself to keep up you fizzle out.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

yer leadin me astray
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Apr 27, 2005
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The only difference between this"report" and Eklunf is Eklund isn't on TV the credibilty of the "report" is about the same
Perhaps. Like I've said multiple times, it's just a rumor. If this thread wasn't for talking about speculation and rumors, then what are we all doing here?
 

LEAFANFORLIFE23

Registered User
Jun 17, 2010
45,954
14,717
Perhaps. Like I've said multiple times, it's just a rumor. If this thread wasn't for talking about speculation and rumors, then what are we all doing here?

And I am not saying it's not even that it more along the lines of "holy duck it is July 7th we got nothing to talk about quick make something up."

Friedman, Lebrun, Bobby Mack Chris Johnston and to a lesser extent in this case dreger these are the rumor guys
 
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