Leafsman
I guess $11M doesn't buy you what it use to
- May 22, 2008
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No, 80% odds of success would be fabulous
That way you would expect to succeed 80 times on the first try, and to be unsuccessful only 20 times.
Of the 20 times you had to go on to a second try you would also expect to succeed 80% of the time. You would expect 16 wins and four losses in those 20 tries.
Ditto for the four times you had to go on to a third try: you would expect about three wins (rounded down from 3.2, or 80% of 4) and one loss (rounded up from 0.8, or 20% of 4) in those four tries.
In the end, you would have succeeded 80 times on the very first try, 16 times on the second try, and three times on the third try for a total of 99 times; and after 100 tries you would have expected to fail only once after all three tries. That would be a failure rate of 1% and a 99% of picking in one of the first three rounds.
As I said before, every single scenario was simulated and combined together in a weighted fashion to produce that table. Because it makes zero sense to have lower absolute odds to win 2nd overall than 1st overall. That 2nd overall odds includes the odds that TOR loses the first lottery.
You don't add balls at all. What I am saying is the chances of TOR winning *any* one of the 3 lotteries is 52%. This is because the odds of picking 4th is 48%. The other possibility is picking top 3. They both have to add up to 100%. So it is 52%. There is no other possibility.
The odds to pick top 3 continue to drop to as you lose lotteries. So the odds of being second in this table = the odds of losing 1st lottery and odds of winning second lottery with eliminating the balls of winner in the subsequent lottery.
These are all independent absolute odds not dependent on winning or losing. As soon as 1st lottery is done, all the odds change in the table.
I know it's a bit counter intuitive but the example of 4 coin flips is easier to understand. The probability of seeing a tails in 4 coin flips is 93%. But the odds of seeing one tails in the remaining flips decrease if I see heads in the first coin flip.
If you guys can answer this then I'll concede.
If we do the same calculations but instead calculate the odds of not picking 1-3, it comes out to approximately 248%?????
If the odds are 20,17.5,15% for winning.
The odds then should be 80%,82.5%,85% for not winning