"Mindset of Shooting" - Some Numbers

[UConn126]

I, like many here, am frustrated with this team. My current whipping boy is Krech, largely for reasons like we saw yesterday where he had 2 grade A scoring chances but opted to pass both times instead of shoot. Cassidy has called this out team-wide, saying they need to play with the "mindset of shooting".... But the Bruins are 4th in the league in shots per game, averaging 32 shots per game. Only Colorado, Montreal, and Florida average more shots than us. Yet we are 27th in goals for.

So what's the deal?

We are shooting, so the numbers say, but we're shooting worse. Here are some shooting % numbers, this year vs. career average:

	Current %	Career %
Marchand	17.9	15.8
Bergeron	10.1	10.8
Pastrnak	13.7	14.6
Krejci	2.5	12.3
Ritchie	12.7	9.3
Smith	8.1	9.5
Coyle	11.6	10.7
DeBrusk	7	12.9
Bjork	9.5	11.9
Kuraly	4.5	5.3
McAvoy	5.3	7
Gryzelck	4.5	3.6
Carlo	6.9	3.3
Lauzon	0	3.6

Maybe the advanced stats folks can weigh in, but what has happened? So many of our players are shooting at a lower percentage than expected. Are we taking worse shots? Have our players aged and lost a step in their shooting? Is it mental?

Click to read more...

 

[BMC]

IMO it isn't the # of shots that is the problem, it is the kind of shots they are taking. This business of constantly shooting 15-20 foot wristers instead of getting in close before unloosing a shot means the puck ends up in the goalie's mitt or is otherwise blocked instead of going in back of the net most of the time.

I don't know if this is a coaching problem or if the players have decided on their own to do this but it is like an infection, even Craig Smith who has scored most of his goals in close has caught it.

Go.to.the.net. Shoot the puck from close range. Park a big body close by-Nick Ritchie is excellent at it- prepared to shoot a rebound.

This is not rocket science.

 

[Lobster57]

IMO it isn't the # of shots that is the problem, it is the kind of shots they are taking. This business of constantly shooting 15-20 foot wristers instead of getting in close before unloosing a shot means the puck ends up in the goalie's mitt or is otherwise blocked instead of going in back of the net most of the time.

I don't know if this is a coaching problem or if the players have decided on their own to do this but it is like an infection, even Craig Smith who has scored most of his goals in close has caught it.

Go.to.the.net. Shoot the puck from close range. Park a big body close by-Nick Ritchie is excellent at it- prepared to shoot a rebound.

This is not rocket science.

This.
Someone posted a tweet from one of the Islander games (i think) comparing where the Bs were shooting from vs where the other guys were, it was pretty clear the majority of the Bs shots came from the dots or further, not gunna score many from there against NHL goalies

 

[McGarnagle]

While shot quality does make a difference, just raw shot totals should lead to more goals. Unless we're just lobbing from the blue line unscreened 37 times a night, they should be getting more.

That indicates to me a lack of net-front presence to screen goalies and clean up rebounds. Other than Ritchie, who has been doing that well, nobody seems to be getting dirty.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

I, like many here, am frustrated with this team. My current whipping boy is Krech, largely for reasons like we saw yesterday where he had 2 grade A scoring chances but opted to pass both times instead of shoot. Cassidy has called this out team-wide, saying they need to play with the "mindset of shooting".... But the Bruins are 4th in the league in shots per game, averaging 32 shots per game. Only Colorado, Montreal, and Florida average more shots than us. Yet we are 27th in goals for.

So what's the deal?

We are shooting, so the numbers say, but we're shooting worse. Here are some shooting % numbers, this year vs. career average:

	Current %	Career %
Marchand	17.9	15.8
Bergeron	10.1	10.8
Pastrnak	13.7	14.6
Krejci	2.5	12.3
Ritchie	12.7	9.3
Smith	8.1	9.5
Coyle	11.6	10.7
DeBrusk	7	12.9
Bjork	9.5	11.9
Kuraly	4.5	5.3
McAvoy	5.3	7
Gryzelck	4.5	3.6
Carlo	6.9	3.3
Lauzon	0	3.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Maybe the advanced stats folks can weigh in, but what has happened? So many of our players are shooting at a lower percentage than expected. Are we taking worse shots? Have our players aged and lost a step in their shooting? Is it mental?

A lot of the problem comes down to quality of chances created – the where and how of the shots you’re firing. 5v5, the Bruins rank 31st in the league for high danger scoring chances created, 30th for total scoring chances created, 30th in high danger goals scored, 31st in expected goals for, and 31st in shooting %. No single player can hold his head high for the quality of his offensive play – in terms of high danger scoring chances created whilst they’re on the ice, league-wide McAvoy is the best Bruin, at 89th, while just among the forwards Marchand is 182nd, Bergeron 212th, Smith 226th, Coyle 252nd and Pastrnak 266th.

Conversely Boston have the 3rd highest corsi % 5v5 and the 3rd highest shots for %, although they only rank 21st in total number of shots taken. So the team is good at defense, good at winning and maintaining possession, but terrible at creating quality scoring chances. Hence all that puck time and shots in favor but often so little to show for it. Bad tactics, bad coaching, bad execution, lack of talent, all of the above; whatever the exact reasons, this team just doesn’t do offense well.

What's changed from last year? Actually not that much in terms of the numbers. Their offensive advanced stats were still poor in 2019-20 - not as bad as this season, but still bottom quarter of the league. They were simply finishing better on the chances they did manage to create, probably playing with more confidence than they are currently, and their PP was much better. Take those 3 things away and their deficient offensive game stands more exposed.

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

calling @OneManIsNoMan

 

[loosemoose]

Bruins expected goals at 5 on 5 is 29th in the league, so there's a huge gap between shot generation and generating quality scoring chances.

 

[VanIsle]

In 2018-19, 9.46% was the average scoring percentage. I would guess it would be close to that 2 years later.

Forwards bring the number up, defenseman bring it down on average.

Krejci has spaghetti hands, or so it seems.

 

[BruinsPortugal]

They dont go to the net nearly enough. The defenseman shooting is poor and overall they mostly shoot from low danger areas.
Unless you think there is a virus running in warrior arena, that to me, is on coaching and gameplan.

They are great at defending and limiting opposing team but they arent built to score. Its a problem.

 

[ON3M4N]

calling @OneManIsNoMan

I was going to dive into this, but I think @Aussie Bruin summed it up pretty well lol. The only thing I'd add is (and this is even more frustrating) if you look at the rest of the NHL and look at HDGA, other East team ranks (most to least)

PHI - 1st
BUF - 4th
PIT - 11th
NYR - 12th
BOS - 21st
WSH - 26th
NYI - 27th

We are in a division where 4 teams are top 15 worst in HDGA at 5v5, but we don't seem to want to generate chances in the high danger areas. IDK if its players, the system or what, but its frustrating to watch the hope of seeing this core win another cup get smaller and smaller.

 

[Aussie Bruin]

I was going to dive into this, but I think @Aussie Bruin summed it up pretty well lol. The only thing I'd add is (and this is even more frustrating) if you look at the rest of the NHL and look at HDGA, other East team ranks (most to least)

PHI - 1st
BUF - 4th
PIT - 11th
NYR - 12th
BOS - 21st
WSH - 26th
NYI - 27th

We are in a division where 4 teams are top 15 worst in HDGA at 5v5, but we don't seem to want to generate chances in the high danger areas. IDK if its players, the system or what, but its frustrating to watch the hope of seeing this core win another cup get smaller and smaller.

Thanks. Some teams can get away with being tactically deficient or not generating a huge amount of chances - as a basic example the division-leading Caps only rank 24th in the league for high danger shots taken 5v5, but with Ovi and co. smacking 23.9% of those into the net (2nd highest in the league, compared to the Bruins 15.4%), they have to create less for better results. Boston just don't have that luxury of personnel, so there's nothing for it but for them to work both harder and most importantly smarter.

 

[wintersej]

We saw this same phenomenon of taking lots of shots from outside in those two years the Bruins missed the playoffs as the old slow d-core was being replaced by the new d-core.

Its because the forwards are hedging to get back on D because a bottom 4 of Zboril, Lauzon, Clifton and Kampfer is lottery quality.