Mikhail Grigorenko...future 3rd line center?

[RefsIdeas]

Hear me out...

His defensive play has been much improved this year. He has a great ability to break up the play with his long reach. He still does have some brain farts in his own end though, but I think that can be corrected. Also:

- His possession numbers are either above average or at least average when compared to the rest of our players
- His FO% is behind only Ellis & McCormick
- He's been fairly impressive the past few games, and you can tell he's just cracking the surface of his potential.

A lot of people are pegging Zemgus as our future 3rd line center, but I think he can easily play on the wing on the 1st or 2nd line.

Our lineup could look something like:

Kane - McEichel - Ennis
Girgensons - Reinhart - Moulson
Foligno - Grigorenko - Gionta
Deslauriers - Larsson - McCormick/FA

Let the bashing begin.

Click to read more...

 

[5 Minute Major]

The bashing should begin because, under your projected roster, Larsson should be the #3 center. much better defensively and is better with the puck.

Grigorenko will be dealt this summer.

 

[Nibbler]

The bashing should begin because, under your projected roster, Larsson should be the #3 center. much better defensively and is better with the puck.

Grigorenko will be dealt this summer.

Is Larsson really that much better defensively? Lately I've seen a lot of Moulson and even Ennis Dropping down to cover the slot while Larsson covers the point.

Grigorenko is decent defensively and will get better, he's only 20 years old. He has more talent than Larsson and with more NHL experience I think we will see his puck handling and passing improve dramatically. IMO he will be a much better player than Larsson and he would make an excellent 3rd line center.

 

[tsujimoto74]

The bashing should begin because, under your projected roster, Larsson should be the #3 center. much better defensively and is better with the puck.

Grigorenko will be dealt this summer.

No reason both can't find some time in the top 9. I agree Larsson is better suited for a traditional checking line role (plus his game is just much more refined/polished than Grigs' is at this stage), but he can play either wing, Grigorenko could probably play wing. And since I've seen it pop up a few times now...I don't see why there's this narrative being created that it's going to be one or the other going forward. There can be room for both of these guys.

 

[B U F F A L O]

Is Larsson really that much better defensively? Lately I've seen a lot of Moulson and even Ennis Dropping down to cover the slot while Larsson covers the point.

Grigorenko is decent defensively and will get better, he's only 20 years old. He has more talent than Larsson and with more NHL experience I think we will see his puck handling and passing improve dramatically. IMO he will be a much better player than Larsson and he would make an excellent 3rd line center.

Well, quick look up on War-on-Ice shows the following:

GA60 5v5 (All)
Larsson 1.59 (1.61)
Grigorenko 2.85 (3.05)

Other notables:
Ennis 2.37 (2.40)
Reinhart 1.31 (1.28)
Girgensons 2.93 (3.48)

GF60 5v5 (all)
Larsson 1.85 (2.65)
Grigorenko 1.52 (1.69)

Other notables:
Ennis 1.89 (2.56)
Reinhart 0.66 (0.64)
Girgensons 1.75 (2.13)

I think its safe to say Larsson is our best defensive forward based on his GA60. Hes played in almost every role too -- from top line to middle lines all the way down. And hes providing the most GF60 as well. He should have a top 9 C spot locked down heading into next year.

 

[Jame]

Is Larsson really that much better defensively? Lately I've seen a lot of Moulson and even Ennis Dropping down to cover the slot while Larsson covers the point.

Grigorenko is decent defensively and will get better, he's only 20 years old. He has more talent than Larsson and with more NHL experience I think we will see his puck handling and passing improve dramatically. IMO he will be a much better player than Larsson and he would make an excellent 3rd line center.

yes. yes he is.

2014-15
GA per 60 ES
Larsson 1.83 (32 games)
Grigorenko 2.83 (20 games)

SA per 60 ES
Larsson 29.3
Grigorenko 30.5

2013-14
GA per 60 ES
Larsson 1.25 (28 games)
Grigorenko 2.56 (18 games)

SA per 60 ES
Larsson 25.4
Grigorenko 31.3

 

[5 Minute Major]

No reason both can't find some time in the top 9. I agree Larsson is better suited for a traditional checking line role (plus his game is just much more refined/polished than Grigs' is at this stage), but he can play either wing, Grigorenko could probably play wing. And since I've seen it pop up a few times now...I don't see why there's this narrative being created that it's going to be one or the other going forward. There can be room for both of these guys.

If the Sabres secure McEichel, I see no future for Grigorenko in Buffalo.

He isn't a #4 center.......And I believe we have better prosepcts on the wings to fill out the 3rd and 4th lines.

I certainly could be wrong but I'm just not feeling a future for Grigorenko in Buffalo. I think Murray wants his wingers with more of an edge to them on the 3rd and 4th lines........even having some on the top 2.

 

[stokes84]

I think one of Grigorenko or Larsson will be dealt this off-season. Whoever remains has a good shot at that 3C role, at least in the short term. I guess it depends on who is buying, but it's hard to determine who has more value. Larsson is clearly ahead of Grigorenko, but he's also two years older. If I'm Murray, I think I prefer to move Larsson because giving up on Grigorenko this early could really come back to bite us. Larsson has become a really nice player, but he's not irreplaceable.

 

[Heraldic]

You should notice that despite Larsson now plays in the top-line, he has gotten easier match-ups averagely compared to Grigorenko:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

The difference in absolute value is significantly in Grigo's favor.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Relative value not that much, but it still favors Grigo.

Larsson is defensively better, but those numbers are something you should also take into account when comparing numbers.

 

[wnysupport]

Not sure why it's either or....has Grigo ever played wing. Not sure why you give up on a 20 year old who has looked better recently, because of Larsson.

Both seem like they could have roles.

Although if Grigo has more perceived trade value, then I think if you can move him for something better, you do it.

 

[Uberpecker]

I'm on the keep Grigo on the roster bandwagon. We all know his ceiling and he has shown definite signs of life as of late. He apparently managed to convince Nolan who wasn't shy to criticize him quite harshly earlier in the season. He's played his way up the line-up and has been rewarded with increased ice-time.
By no means is he untouchable, but his trade value is likely rather low and we can afford to take a gamble. As long as he isn't a liability and shows signs of development, I keep him in the lign-up.

That being said, if a trade around a young top 4 d à la Merrill or Gormley (or a top 6 winger of similar value and situation) presented itself, I probably wouldn't say no.

 

[stokes84]

You should notice that despite Larsson now plays in the top-line, he has gotten easier match-ups averagely compared to Grigorenko:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

The difference in absolute value is significantly in Grigo's favor.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Relative value not that much, but it still favors Grigo.

Larsson is defensively better, but those numbers are something you should also take into account when comparing numbers.

The QOC numbers always seem a bit suspect to me. The Larsson line sees other teams top shut down units, which generally have their QOC hurt because producing offense is not their job.

 

[Jame]

You should notice that despite Larsson now plays in the top-line, he has gotten easier match-ups averagely compared to Grigorenko:

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

The difference in absolute value is significantly in Grigo's favor.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Relative value not that much, but it still favors Grigo.

Larsson is defensively better, but those numbers are something you should also take into account when comparing numbers.

Larsson has maintained his GA per 60 all season. It stands to reason that his QOC currently, is in the same ballpark as Moulson/Ennis.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

The bashing should begin because, under your projected roster, Larsson should be the #3 center. much better defensively and is better with the puck.

Grigorenko will be dealt this summer.

I bet anyone Grigorenko gets another year with the sabres.

 

[Wisent42]

I was happy when we drafted Grigo and I still like him, but I'm leaning more and more to him being the odd man out. Once McEichel is secured, I just don't see a place for him on the roster. He seems to be a top-6 or bust kind of player. Between him and Larsson, the latter has more value to us because he is more of a bottom-6 with upside.

That said, there is still a chance for him to earn a spot on a kind of third scoring line, and we have no idea yet if either Reinhart or McEichel earns a spot on the team next year. Grigorenko looked really good the first two periods last night (didn't watch the third) and for the last games he has slowly but certainly started to look more confident. I think he is figuring things out and I really hope he is still in the mix next year. After that, who knows?

 

[5 Minute Major]

I bet anyone Grigorenko gets another year with the sabres.

I don't see him here......though you certainly could be right. I believe that Murray makes another move for a physical, skilled winger. I don't see a spot for Grigorenko in the top 9 and he makes no sense as a 4th liner.

 

[DeadGhost]

Grigorenko sucks.

 

[mgeise]

I really hope they roll with both Larsson and Grigorenko next year. They'll certainly improve next year, but it's still an evaluative year. Rather than sell Grigorenko at what might be his lowest value, I'd rather roll the dice that he takes another step next year. Having 5+ potential top nine centers in McEichel, Reinhart, Girgensons, Larsson, Grigorenko, and a possible FA signing this offseason would be a good problem to have.

 

[KeziaTML]

A lot of people seem to forget how young Grigorenko is and that it's not his fault that he wasn't ready for the NHL. It was forced upon him by inept management.

Please, by all means, trade him to the Leafs for a bag of pucks. I swear it won't come back to bite you in the ass.

 

[stokes84]

Grigorenko sucks.

Well, he's only 20, so.....

 

[Wisent42]

A lot of people seem to forget how young Grigorenko is and that it's not his fault that he wasn't ready for the NHL. It was forced upon him by inept management.

Please, by all means, trade him to the Leafs for a bag of pucks. I swear it won't come back to bite you in the ass.

We already traded Mitchell, Flynn and Stewart for pucks. We're up to here in effing pucks, we don't need more pucks!

 

[5 Minute Major]

Wingers that will be here next season.....

Moulson, Ennis, Kane, Girgensons, Gionta, Foligno.....I think those guys are set in stone. Like I said earlier, does anyone not believe that Murray attempts to deal for another top 9 winger this off-season?

I just don't see a spot for him moving forward. Not with the current scenario. We know, most likely, right now that there are 4 players, McEichel, Reinhart, Kane and Girgensons that are not in the lineup right now that will be next season.

 

[DeadGhost]

Well, he's only 20, so.....

He has longer left in his career to suck?

 

[stokes84]

He has longer left in his career to suck?

Or, ya know, improve. It's almost like it's part of the process.

 

[ZeroPT*]

He has longer left in his career to suck?

Talk about shortsighted