Player Discussion Mike Kelly of SportLogiq discusses Sens and Players w the Boys on 1200

[Sens of Anarchy]

Kelly: Expectations weren't realistic in Ottawa

NHL network's Mike Kelly on using analytics to figure out how a team is playing, importance of expected goals for and expected goals allowed, finding the right partner for Thomas Chabot and sharing Chabot minutes with Jake Sanderson.

www.tsn.ca

30/32 NHL teams are clients of SportLogiq... providers of a plethora of statistics.
I believe the Sens and BSens use their reports.

Click to read more...

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I expected the team to at least fight for a playoff spot. I don't see how that's unrealistic.

 

[Sensinitis]

Expectations were fine, the team looked very very good before we got hit with all the injuries.

I hadn’t seen a Sens team that good since 05-06.

We would have 3 waves of attack pouring on the opposition with a 4th line that would keep possession and that’s while Sanderson was still getting his feet wet.

Too bad it only lasted 5 games

 

[Micklebot]

Kelly: Expectations weren't realistic in Ottawa

NHL network's Mike Kelly on using analytics to figure out how a team is playing, importance of expected goals for and expected goals allowed, finding the right partner for Thomas Chabot and sharing Chabot minutes with Jake Sanderson.

www.tsn.ca

30/32 NHL teams are clients of SportLogiq... providers of a plethora of statistics.
I believe the Sens and BSens use their reports.

Ya, we use them from what I understand

 

[Micklebot]

Expectations were fine, the team looked very very good before we got hit with all the injuries.

I hadn’t seen a Sens team that good since 05-06.

We would have 3 waves of attack pouring on the opposition with a 4th line that would keep possession and that’s while Sanderson was still getting his feet wet.

Too bad it only lasted 5 games

I think Kelly's point about expectations was more about the teams we needed to leapfrog than how good we would be.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Expectations were the team would miss the playoffs but not by a lot.

It could still happen. The team is playing ok.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Kelly: Expectations weren't realistic in Ottawa

NHL network's Mike Kelly on using analytics to figure out how a team is playing, importance of expected goals for and expected goals allowed, finding the right partner for Thomas Chabot and sharing Chabot minutes with Jake Sanderson.

www.tsn.ca

30/32 NHL teams are clients of SportLogiq... providers of a plethora of statistics.
I believe the Sens and BSens use their reports.

Yep DJ and Mann have talked about it a lot the last few years. They get reports every period, and more detailed at end of each game, and on upcoming opponent.

You pick and choose which stats you want from thousands.

NHL teams pay around 200k each, some a bit more , some slightly less.

TSN and Sportsnet use them as well.

 

[Sensinitis]

I think Kelly's point about expectations was more about the teams we needed to leapfrog than how good we would be.

I don’t think the two points are mutually exclusive

 

[Pinto Bean]

Betting sites had Ottawa as long-shots to make the playoffs. For the most part, these sites have a pretty accurate read on whats going on in sports. I think many fans had the Sens as a fringe playoff team or a team that would just miss out. So in that regard, I agree that expectations were too high.

In terms of expectations from the team, more often then not the line I heard from Dorion & Co. was that they wanted to remain competitive around the deadline and closer to the end of the season. No mention of playoffs. I like to think thats a fair expectation when worded that way. But still probably a reach given the first 15+ games and how stiff the Atlantic is.

 

[Big Muddy]

I think Kelly's point about expectations was more about the teams we needed to leapfrog than how good we would be.

Yes, he was talking about a 85 - 90 point season being a reasonable expectation which is not a playoff team. Also, he did mention that the division would be tough and it would unlikely and expecting too much for the Senators to leap frog or be better than the best teams in their division and conference. By looking at the some of the comments coming from the GDTs that looks like a segment of the fan base expecting too much. Sounded like he thought the team would win more games eventually given what the metrics indicated.

 

[Samsquanch]

Betting sites had Ottawa as long-shots to make the playoffs. For the most part, these sites have a pretty accurate read on whats going on in sports. I think many fans had the Sens as a fringe playoff team or a team that would just miss out. So in that regard, I agree that expectations were too high.

In terms of expectations from the team, more often then not the line I heard from Dorion & Co. was that they wanted to remain competitive around the deadline and closer to the end of the season. No mention of playoffs. I like to think thats a fair expectation when worded that way. But still probably a reach given the first 15+ games and how stiff the Atlantic is.

They can't predict injuries. Or teams like the Devils.

And I find it hard to believe that this team would have the same record with Norris and Zub in the lineup. Add Talbot and heck even Formenton, and its so easy to some of those 1 goal games change to Wins.

Injuries are a part of the game. That's the truth. And this young team that's still finding their way at peak strength would have been much better - and that's also true.

Yes it's clear we aren't an elite team like the Bruins that can shrug off major injuries. We have to grow towards that. But this team is better than its record shows.

 

[DrEasy]

They can't predict injuries. Or teams like the Devils.

And I find it hard to believe that this team would have the same record with Norris and Zub in the lineup. Add Talbot and heck even Formenton, and its so easy to some of those 1 goal games change to Wins.

Injuries are a part of the game. That's the truth. And this young team that's still finding their way at peak strength would have been much better - and that's also true.

Yes it's clear we aren't an elite team like the Bruins that can shrug off major injuries. We have to grow towards that. But this team is better than its record shows.

I agree, lack of depth is hurting, but why did we have to sustain an injury where we are the thinnest (RD) AND to the best player at that position? That's really bad luck.

 

[bert]

They can't predict injuries. Or teams like the Devils.

And I find it hard to believe that this team would have the same record with Norris and Zub in the lineup. Add Talbot and heck even Formenton, and its so easy to some of those 1 goal games change to Wins.

Injuries are a part of the game. That's the truth. And this young team that's still finding their way at peak strength would have been much better - and that's also true.

Yes it's clear we aren't an elite team like the Bruins that can shrug off major injuries. We have to grow towards that. But this team is better than its record shows.

The analytics community did expect the Devils to improve quite a bit. They had a great offseason adding the types of players they were missing too. Grit, experience and faceoffs in Palat and Haula. Steadying d man in Marino and new goalies. As they had the worst goaltending in hockey. They have been fortunate on the injury front thus far. We will see how they do. If they lose Hischier and Seigenthaler for example that will test them. Similar loses to what Ottawa has experienced. Although I do think Hischier is their best player he is amazing.

The leap frogging thing is definitely real right now. Two teams from last year are in and two are out. The other 6 teams currently sitting in spots are the same ones.

The Islanders are in which should be no surprise as they were very good before last season after having a freakishly bad year. Starting on the road, covid, injuries etc. New coach bump etc.

Jersey as per my previous post.

Two teams are out are two of the three aging teams that people speculated may be on the down swing in Pitt and wash.

It's really not overly surprising other than the sens. Most metrics had them competing for a spot.

The rest of your post is spot on. I agree without the injuries I think Ottawa is right there. But teams have to play through them. Ottawa could really benefit from a new coach bump and some better injury luck.

 

[Micklebot]

They can't predict injuries. Or teams like the Devils.

Devils were well regarded by the analytics community last year but goaltending was seen as their undoing. They had the worst goaltending in the league last year.

They went out and picked up a new starter that looked promising basically wiping away alot of the concerns, then on top of that added a top 4 D in Marino.

Pretty sure they were expected to have a good year.

 

[Pinto Bean]

They can't predict injuries. Or teams like the Devils.

And I find it hard to believe that this team would have the same record with Norris and Zub in the lineup. Add Talbot and heck even Formenton, and its so easy to some of those 1 goal games change to Wins.

Injuries are a part of the game. That's the truth. And this young team that's still finding their way at peak strength would have been much better - and that's also true.

Yes it's clear we aren't an elite team like the Bruins that can shrug off major injuries. We have to grow towards that. But this team is better than its record shows.

Well the Sens are a bottom-5 team and prior to winning the last game they were tied for the least amount of points in the NHL. So no these betting sites don't assume injuries but they also weren't predicting the Sens to be a bottom-5 team.

I agree that the Sens are better than a bottom-5 team but that doesn't change the point that anyone suggesting playoffs in the off-season was getting ahead of themselves. Even with a full healthy squad, anyone ranking them with or above the Leafs, Lightning, Bruins and about 4-6 other teams in the East was probably being a homer.

 

[Samsquanch]

The analytics community did expect the Devils to improve quite a bit. They had a great offseason adding the types of players they were missing too. Grit, experience and faceoffs in Palat and Haula. Steadying d man in Marino and new goalies. As they had the worst goaltending in hockey. They have been fortunate on the injury front thus far. We will see how they do. If they lose Hischier and Seigenthaler for example that will test them. Similar loses to what Ottawa has experienced. Although I do think Hischier is their best player he is amazing.

The leap frogging thing is definitely real right now. Two teams from last year are in and two are out. The other 6 teams currently sitting in spots are the same ones.

The Islanders are in which should be no surprise as they were very good before last season after having a freakishly bad year. Starting on the road, covid, injuries etc. New coach bump etc.

Jersey as per my previous post.

Two teams are out are two of the three aging teams that people speculated may be on the down swing in Pitt and wash.

It's really not overly surprising other than the sens. Most metrics had them competing for a spot.

The rest of your post is spot on. I agree without the injuries I think Ottawa is right there. But teams have to play through them. Ottawa could really benefit from a new coach bump and some better injury luck.

Devils were well regarded by the analytics community last year but goaltending was seen as their undoing. They had the worst goaltending in the league last year.

They went out and picked up a new starter that looked promising basically wiping away alot of the concerns, then on top of that added a top 4 D in Marino.

Pretty sure they were expected to have a good year.

The analytics community getting the Devils right is one thing. And I mean even a broken clock gets it right twice a day right? So for every prediction the analytics crowd guesses right, its normally followed by another 2 or 3 that they get totally wrong.

But the Vegas odds makers (which is what I was speaking to) are another beast altogether. There's actual money on the line with their predictions. Their predictions actually mean something in the real world (like something more than absolutely nothing at all). And Im not so sure that they predicted anything even close to what we're seeing from the Devils right now.

 

[bert]

The analytics community getting this one right is one thing. And I mean even a broken clock gets it right twice a day right? So for every prediction they get correct, it would not be surprising to see another 2 or 3 that they got wrong.

But the Vegas odds makers (what I was speaking to) are another beast altogether. Theres actual money on the line with their predictions. And Im not so sure that they predicted anything even close to what we're seeing from the Devils right now.

I dont think even the biggest homer Jersey fan would have predicted this but boy are they good. I think Siegenthaler has really cemented himself into a top level shut down guy. Him and Hamilton are a legit number 1 pairing. Hughes and Hischier have taken big steps into being elite players. They havent really had any major injuries yet we will see how they do when that happens. Will be interesting to see if Hughes can stay healthy for a full NHL season. He is definitely looking stronger and taking the puck to danger areas way more. I will eat crow on that one, thought he would continue to be a perimiter player. They dominated Toronto last night, love their 4 line game. Bastian Mcleod Wood are so fast and physical what a 4th line.

I actually cant believe how good of a player Hischier has turned into. He is incredible on both sides of the puck, underated skill.

 

[Samsquanch]

I dont think even the biggest homer Jersey fan would have predicted this but boy are they good. I think Siegenthaler has really cemented himself into a top level shut down guy. Him and Hamilton are a legit number 1 pairing. Hughes and Hischier have taken big steps into being elite players. They havent really had any major injuries yet we will see how they do when that happens. Will be interesting to see if Hughes can stay healthy for a full NHL season. He is definitely looking stronger and taking the puck to danger areas way more. I will eat crow on that one, thought he would continue to be a perimiter player. They dominated Toronto last night, love their 4 line game. Bastian Mcleod Wood are so fast and physical what a 4th line.

I actually cant believe how good of a player Hischier has turned into. He is incredible on both sides of the puck, underated skill.

Agreed but that was sort of my point. The Vegas oods makers cant predict injuries, nor can they predict teams like the red hot Devils happening.

So as much as they have their finger on the pulse of the league before the season starts - its still largely anyone's best guess as to how the season is going to play out. Which again is the original point of my OP that got quoted.

 

[swiftwin]

Betting sites had Ottawa as long-shots to make the playoffs. For the most part, these sites have a pretty accurate read on whats going on in sports. I think many fans had the Sens as a fringe playoff team or a team that would just miss out. So in that regard, I agree that expectations were too high.

The Sens were set at +200 to make the playoffs, which is an implied 33% chance to make the playoffs. Which is pretty much in line with expectations, especially in the Atlantic.

 

[Pinto Bean]

The Sens were set at +200 to make the playoffs, which is an implied 33% chance to make the playoffs. Which is pretty much in line with expectations, especially in the Atlantic.

Perhaps your expectations but I do think a good portion of the fanbase has increased expectations that went beyond that.

 

[Micklebot]

Perhaps your expectations but I do think a good portion of the fanbase has increased expectations that went beyond that.

Are we talking HF, or general public?

I think most people around here at least had expectations of being a bubble team if all went well.

I don't recall too many people assuming we were playoff bound.

 

[Pinto Bean]

Are we talking HF, or general public?

I think most people around here at least had expectations of being a bubble team if all went well.

I don't recall too many people assuming we were playoff bound.

I guess I'd be referring to both Twitter & HF. Of course not everyone on both platforms but I'd definitely see the rhetoric that Ottawa has bumped past Boston & certain other teams that are a clear step above us.

That being said, I most often saw that users would often put the Sens on top of the fringe teams grouping. So teams like the Red Wings, Devils, Islanders, Sabres, etc etc but for me, looking at the Sens defence going into the season, there was just no way I could put them above teams like the Isles and even the Devils and especially not teams like Boston, TOR, TBL, and a good chunk of that Metro division.

Point is to say, I still think the Sens were closer to the lower end of the conference then they were the higher end.

 

[swiftwin]

I guess I'd be referring to both Twitter & HF. Of course not everyone on both platforms but I'd definitely see the rhetoric that Ottawa has bumped past Boston & certain other teams that are a clear step above us.

That being said, I most often saw that users would often put the Sens on top of the fringe teams grouping. So teams like the Red Wings, Devils, Islanders, Sabres, etc etc but for me, looking at the Sens defence going into the season, there was just no way I could put them above teams like the Isles and even the Devils and especially not teams like Boston, TOR, TBL, and a good chunk of that Metro division.

Point is to say, I still think the Sens were closer to the lower end of the conference then they were the higher end.

My impression was that many believed the Sens had a decent shot at the playoffs if they weren't in the Atlantic division. Leaping past Toronto, Tampa or Florida was always going to be a tall order. Most fans felt like our only avenue to making the playoffs was a big regression from Boston.

IMO, the Sens should finish ahead of Buffalo, Detroit and Montreal. But Boston and New Jersey taking off like they did is going to make it really hard to squeeze into a WC spot. Florida is vulnerable, as are Pittsburgh and Washington. It is possible for the Sens to finish ahead of those 3 teams. If they do, they'll have a WC spot.

 

[milkbag]

When Friedman spoke on how Dorion had a trade in place but the dman blocked it, what if it was Karlsson? Maybe he just straight up doesn't want to come back.

 

[Big Muddy]

I dont think even the biggest homer Jersey fan would have predicted this but boy are they good. I think Siegenthaler has really cemented himself into a top level shut down guy. Him and Hamilton are a legit number 1 pairing. Hughes and Hischier have taken big steps into being elite players. They havent really had any major injuries yet we will see how they do when that happens. Will be interesting to see if Hughes can stay healthy for a full NHL season. He is definitely looking stronger and taking the puck to danger areas way more. I will eat crow on that one, thought he would continue to be a perimiter player. They dominated Toronto last night, love their 4 line game. Bastian Mcleod Wood are so fast and physical what a 4th line.

I actually cant believe how good of a player Hischier has turned into. He is incredible on both sides of the puck, underated skill.

That line is called the BMW line. They are much beloved by Devils fans. I frequently watch the opponent's team broadcast when I watch a Senators game because that's the nature of the beast living in the U.S. and using ESPN+. I actually kind of like it though because you learn a lot more about the other teams ultimately.

My impression was that many believed the Sens had a decent shot at the playoffs if they weren't in the Atlantic division. Leaping past Toronto, Tampa or Florida was always going to be a tall order. Most fans felt like our only avenue to making the playoffs was a big regression from Boston.

IMO, the Sens should finish ahead of Buffalo, Detroit and Montreal. But Boston and New Jersey taking off like they did is going to make it really hard to squeeze into a WC spot. Florida is vulnerable, as are Pittsburgh and Washington. It is possible for the Sens to finish ahead of those 3 teams. If they do, they'll have a WC spot.

Well, a wild card slot would have been another path. But, there's lots of other good teams in Eastern Conference as well. So, that path was also much closer to long shot versus a sure thing.