Value of: Mikael Granlund (UFA)

[Kraken Jokes]

What kind of term and AAV do you expect Granlund's next deal to be?

If your team was interested, what would you offer him?

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[57special]

Impossible to say, at this moment. Have to wait till the year plays out. If he ends up with 30 points, like he is on pace for, then it he will likely sign a one year "prove it" contract for about 3M. Otherwise, I can't see any team paying him any more than 3/11M

 

[HaNotsri]

I’ll start the bidding from Buffalo:
2 years, 4.1 million.

 

[rynryn]

I said at the outset I think he and Fiala would be great together...

 

[FameFlame069]

Flames show me contract 3M for 1 year

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think the rest of the season and wherever Granlund ends up is key to his next deal. If he lands somewhere and finds the right chemistry, he could restore faith. Back when we acquired him, we figured we'd have to commit to something like 7x$7M to retain him!!! What a long time ago that seems to be. If he has a strong finish he might still be able to find 5x$5M-ish. If he doesn't, he's probably only playing at a 3x$4M pace, with a little allowance for his past successes.

He's only 27 and if I was him I might think about taking the best 1 yr "show-me" deal I could get... obviously there's risk in that, but if he had a good year and got back on the 7x$7M path it would be a gamble that pays off.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

I don’t know what he will command as a UFA but I hope by the deadline he’s an Oiler. Edmonton also has the centre’s needed for him to re-establish his value with a 1 year deal. I’d do as high as $4 million on a 1 year or 3 years x $5 million as I’d be shocked if he couldn’t earn it with McDavid

 

[57special]

Whoever gets him should realize that he is a superb stick handler and passer. He's a guy who should be handling the puck, and setting up scorers. A guy like Neal might do very well with him. Very smart player, and courageous. Has made himself into a good two way player, who is surprisingly good in puck battles, despite a lack of size and strength.

He has average speed and strength, and below average size, though he's not tiny.

He's too young to be burnt out or done....I simply don't know how a guy who seemed to have proved a level of a fringe first liner could turn into a bottom six player like he is now. I would remind everyone that he started to play badly when he was still with the Wild, after having a good start to the season, but falling off in December, prior to his trade to NSH, so his problem is not just NSH based.

 

[P10p]

Please back to Minnesota

 

[ChargersRookie]

There's an earlier thread.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

There's an earlier thread.

The other thread is about his trade value at the deadline, this one is about what his next contract will look like.

 

[ChargersRookie]

Nice mask.

 

[Kraken Jokes]

Nice mask.

Thanks?

 

[vipera1960]

I don’t know what he will command as a UFA but I hope by the deadline he’s an Oiler. Edmonton also has the centre’s needed for him to re-establish his value with a 1 year deal. I’d do as high as $4 million on a 1 year or 3 years x $5 million as I’d be shocked if he couldn’t earn it with McDavid

Those are numbers that seem very unrealistic to me, but for two different reasons. First, if he doesn’t improve it’s a clear overpayment. Second, if he gets traded to tho Oilers (as you hope), and his play improves (as you hope), if the Oiler’s want to keep him it will probably take at least 6.5.

The fact is the only reason he is an undervalued asset is his year in Nashville. If he goes anywhere else and puts up good numbers, he’s suddenly a $7m asset again.

Which, btw, is exactly why anyone would give up a 2nd round pick for him.



Tl:dr
If he’s a 30-35 pt player it’s too much, if he’s a 60-70 pt player it’s not enough. Either way a trade is the most important factor.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Wayne Simmons played like a cooked player. Still looks fairly medium well this year and still got 1 year 5 million(I get he brings physical play and leadership which on Devils is doing so much good #sarcasm). I wouldn't go past 1 year 2.75 million for Granlund. But with free agency there is always one village idiot.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Similar to what MoJo or Dzingel got. Think he’ll want short term too.

 

[sr edler]

Granlund has great upside. A dip session in Nashville means nothing in the big picture. He's still young too. Shallow teams depth wise like Edmonton and Buffalo should be all over him like bloodhounds.

 

[LaMasquerade]

Maybe we should start some more threads about him. He's been playing great since the original trade thread (with all the complains that he's been brutal) was started. The HF boards jinx/anti-jinx never fails!

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Wayne Simmons played like a cooked player. Still looks fairly medium well this year and still got 1 year 5 million(I get he brings physical play and leadership which on Devils is doing so much good #sarcasm). I wouldn't go past 1 year 2.75 million for Granlund. But with free agency there is always one village idiot.

Thing with Granlund is that he really doesn't look "cooked" in any way. He just isn't putting up the numbers that he normally would. But still looks physically capable of being the same player he ever was.

Although the goals he's been popping in lately almost get him back on his usual pace goal-wise. The lack of assists is the big kicker... which again probably comes down to the poor chemistry he has had with the Preds players/systems.

I don't know how sensitive his production ultimately is to his linemates/chemistry - whatever he had going worked in Minnesota, and it hasn't worked in Nashville. It's not enough data points to really extrapolate to a new team. But if you have your pro scouts study some tape and think you figure it out and can recreate the magic for him, I have to think he's fairly low-risk to bounce back. It's not like he got old or blew out a knee or anything.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

He's been maybe our best forward since the coaching change, and really seems to be carrying the line with Johansen and Duchene currently.

 

[Bazeek]

He's been maybe our best forward since the coaching change, and really seems to be carrying the line with Johansen and Duchene currently.

Has there been a noticeable difference since the coaching change?

I can't remember exactly which one it was, but Russo mentioned in a recent podcast that soon after Hynes was brought in John Torchetti called him up with some advice on Granlund. Torchetti coached him for a few months when he was the Wild's interim coach after Yeo was fired, a period (end of the 2015-16 season) where Granlund was shifted more to the wing and his production really started to take off.

I honestly don't know what Torchetti told him or if Hynes actually took it to heart, but if Granlund's been better since the change there may be a real coaching/usage aspect to this.

 

[57special]

If he sprints to the finish line this season then it will only confuse his FA value. Again, MiG started playing/ producing badly before he left MN, not once he reached NSH, so the chemistry narrative doesn't fit.

A GM would have to be crazy to give him term on a contract.

CBJ might be a good fit.

 

[mm11]

too lazy to look it up, but can the guy win a meaningful draw or is this a liability?

 

[Kraken Jokes]

too lazy to look it up, but can the guy win a meaningful draw or is this a liability?

I wouldn't sign him specifically to play C, though maybe he's slightly more productive up the middle.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Has there been a noticeable difference since the coaching change?

I can't remember exactly which one it was, but Russo mentioned in a recent podcast that soon after Hynes was brought in John Torchetti called him up with some advice on Granlund. Torchetti coached him for a few months when he was the Wild's interim coach after Yeo was fired, a period (end of the 2015-16 season) where Granlund was shifted more to the wing and his production really started to take off.

I honestly don't know what Torchetti told him or if Hynes actually took it to heart, but if Granlund's been better since the change there may be a real coaching/usage aspect to this.

I think the main changes are that lately he's played with Johansen as his center. And Hynes has expanded his role so that now he's one of the regular PK forwards too... this has resulted in him having a few games with really heavy 20-min icetime. He still got plenty of ice and opportunity before too. Just now he is getting even more, in all situations. And his center now is more of a heavier pass-first center instead of a fast rush puck-carrying center (Duchene).

I don't think they've yet quite hit on the perfect fit for Granlund. But this is better. His shooting % the last 10 games where he has these 5 goals is probably unsustainably high. But he's still not getting any assists - Johansen isn't going to score goals, and so far I would say Duchene now looks more like the square peg on this new line now.