Post-Game Talk: Mika May

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Hunter Gathers

The Crown
Feb 27, 2002
107,085
12,565
parts unknown
Nah this one's good. Metal af.

It got dumber, MH.

Image 5-5-24 at 10.26 PM.jpeg
 
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Hunter Gathers

The Crown
Feb 27, 2002
107,085
12,565
parts unknown
Aw man, they ruined the 666.

I'm dead-ass serious, though, when I say that stuff like this really kills my confidence in certain modeling, analytics, etc.

I can't take certain things seriously if you get outputs like this.

Very frustrating to see it be *THIS* off, heh. Just seems like I feel this way more often than I should with MP.
 

PuckLuck3043

Stairway To Heaven
Nov 15, 2017
10,049
15,291
Hudson Valley
It is a major flaw and it's just something unique to hockey.

Baseball, different world. Basketball has a massive sample size. In football, you can just accumulate yards, so its not "bad" to do it quickly as far as the measure goes. Soccer just isn't this fast.

Scoring quickly and missing out on the scoring chances in the build up can definitely throw analytics out of whack.

That's why there's goal-based models and Valiquette's type of metrics where he weights great chances more heavily over a bunch of solid ones.

Certain people will say that. They're wrong. It's another one of the reasons analytics people like to look at 5v5. That's not to say you ignore special teams. Again, you have to have the context of the game to make a fair judgment.
And a lot of people who didn't watch the game will pull up that bogus meter and just make stupid assumptions. You are right. It's a flawed model.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
144,066
117,201
NYC
I'm dead-ass serious, though, when I say that stuff like this really kills my confidence in certain modeling, analytics, etc.

I can't take certain things seriously if you get outputs like this.

Very frustrating to see it be *THIS* off, heh. Just seems like I feel this way more often than I should with MP.
You have to just take everything with a pinch of salt. It was one of those games where I knew it would be weird.
 

Hunter Gathers

The Crown
Feb 27, 2002
107,085
12,565
parts unknown
You have to just take everything with a pinch of salt. It was one of those games where I knew it would be weird.

It's just frustrating is all. The NFL used to have awful analytics but now it's somehow seemingly surpassed the NHL (which seemed to be the analytics baby after baseball).

I just figured there would be more things to rely on when it seems like much of the hockey world is stuck in the mud.

The NHL itself really needs to take all of this stuff over, invest heavily, and go the route of the NFL. Look at all the insane tracking data we get now from the NFL. Makes analysis so much better and more thoughtful.
 
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Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
144,066
117,201
NYC
And a lot of people who didn't watch the game will pull up that bogus meter and just make stupid assumptions. You are right. It's a flawed model.
I think it's a good visual aid when I weigh all of the data, along with what I viewed, and I'm pretty certain it's correct.

There have been many games where I didn't think it was.

There was a game this year where I think it straight up glitched out. It gave our opponent like 7 xG. NST had them at 2.3.
 

Machinehead

GoAwayTrouba
Jan 21, 2011
144,066
117,201
NYC
It's just frustrating is all. The NFL used to have awful analytics but now it's somehow seemingly surpassed the NHL (which seemed to be the analytics baby after baseball).

I just figured there would be more things to rely on when it seems like much of the hockey world is stuck in the mud.

The NHL itself really needs to take all of this stuff over, invest heavily, and go the route of the NFL. Look at all the insane tracking data we get now from the NFL. Makes analysis so much better and more thoughtful.
I just think the NHL gloms it all and keeps it out of public eye the same way they treat injuries.

Valiquette works for the Rangers. There's no way they aren't being fed all the really in-depth shit he comes up with.
 

UnSandvich

Registered User
Sep 7, 2017
5,244
7,548
I just think the NHL gloms it all and keeps it out of public eye the same way they treat injuries.

Valiquette works for the Rangers. There's no way they aren't being fed all the really in-depth shit he comes up with.

And now we even have a coach who might give it a second thought. Unlike our last coach, who might as well have been a caveman screaming at the concept of numbers
 

17futurecap

Registered User
Oct 8, 2008
18,909
14,622
NJ
I think it's a good visual aid when I weigh all of the data, along with what I viewed, and I'm pretty certain it's correct.

There have been many games where I didn't think it was.

There was a game this year where I think it straight up glitched out. It gave our opponent like 7 xG. NST had them at 2.3.

It feels like the Rangers are getting dinged because they scored two pp goals in 20 seconds, and didn't get 4 minutes of constant chances on the PP.
 

Fitzy

Very Stable Genius
Jan 29, 2009
35,198
22,066
I mean discussion of methods aside it was absolutely the special teams that won us this game.

That and marginally better goaltending.
 
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Glen Sathers Cigar

Sather 4 Ever
Feb 4, 2013
16,615
20,471
New York
Nice win, felt in control for basically the whole game until the end and they held on. PP adjustments to counter the aggressive Canes PK was great, that's what you need to do draw them to you and make those quick passes and catch them out of sorts.

Igor looked a little rusty early but settled in. Look to see him more locked in on Tuesday.

Officiating was weird. Seemed like we went 2-2 on our PPs and the refs were like "ok, no more power plays for them that's not fair" because tons of stuff was let go and then Fox gets called for a chintzy slash and Trouba gets called for a crosscheck where he barely shoves the guy and he flops. And that Rempe call really should've been interference on Staal against Rempe, Rempe is outside the blue and the lane is there he's allowed to get to that ice and Staal shoved him into the goalie. If that's Panarin pushed onto the goalie, Staal gets called.
 
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