Blue Jays Discussion: Midway point in the season and things don't look.. Ugh.. Good

[TF97]

I'd bet the list of takers for Martin and his contract is zero. His offensive numbers are not very impressive for somebody who hits in the top/middle of the lineup.

G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS GO/AO
59 196 35 46 79 6 0 9 19 39 0 53 0 2 .235 .378 .403 .781 1.33

9 HRs but a measly 19 RBIs.

How dare Russell not get on base in front of himself. Absolute failure.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Aaron Judge is a freak

 

[zeke]

Martin's great and totally worth his contract. However if we're presented with 3 alternatives:

A) Trade him with no retention, get some decent prospects
B) Trade him with considerable retention, and get some quality prospects
C) Just keep him and have him continue to work with our young and up and coming pitching, lead the clubhouse and maybe even retire as a Jay.

I will GLADLY take either B or C instead of A. Not even close.

oh absolutely. eat all the money to maximize the return. but....rogers.

 

[zeke]

I expect Tulo to finish the season with a wRC+ north of 100 and around 2.0 fWAR. He's hitting really well right now. Not worth $20 million, but I think his demise has been overstated.

the last 2yrs by fangraphs' (low-bidding) free agent dollar calc, tulo was worth 22.6m last year and 18.4 the year before, as a 3ish war type above average O and D shortstop.

i also think he'll finish north of 100wrc+ and again on his now-usual 3ish war pace, which will again put him right back at that dollar value, and in the offseason most will be looking at him as a 3ish war player again going forward, above average SS both offensively and defensively, and his contract won't look bad at all compared to what free agents will be getting.

 

[zeke]

Martin is fine; the issue is the back-loaded $60 million left on his deal which almost certainly won't be fine, hence why you'd probably need to eat some of his salary to get something back even though he is still good now. That is a lot of money for a catcher who already has to be rested at an increasing rate (which will only get worse).

why is that money an issue?

a very smart org just signed Yadier Molina for $20m/yr until age 38.

Martin's getting $20m/yr until age 36.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Judge is a machine.

 

[Stats01]

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Angels, Blue Jays and Royals are three teams "that have at least mentioned" Dee Gordon in trade talks with the Marlins

First and only thing that comes to mind is speed. 29 years old..doesn't really fit into the plans of this team going forward unless management actually think this is a contending team still...just to get to 88 wins the Jays are going to have to on a Astros/Dodgers kind of run in the second half and I highly doubt that happens.

 

[canucksfan]

Bichette finished 0-4 with a walk and 2 SOs. I had the gameday opened while working. Seemed he had good at bats

 

[Eyedea]

Martin is fine; the issue is the back-loaded $60 million left on his deal which almost certainly won't be fine, hence why you'd probably need to eat some of his salary to get something back even though he is still good now. That is a lot of money for a catcher who already has to be rested at an increasing rate (which will only get worse).

By backloaded 60m left you mean backloaded 40m left

 

[metafour]

why is that money an issue?

a very smart org just signed Yadier Molina for $20m/yr until age 38.

Martin's getting $20m/yr until age 36.

Yadier Molina is worth more to the Cardinals than he is to any other team. That new contract he signed had a whole lot of off-field factors going into it that stretch well past actual on-field performance; most notably appeasing fans and ensuring that he retires as a Cardinal. You can read write-ups of that deal and see a lot of blatant "yeah, he's probably going to decline badly, but this deal is about more than just production" coping. The point is, while Molina holds obvious sentimental value to the Cardinals that justifies the contract they gave him, that doesn't exactly hold any relevance to a team looking to acquire Martin today on the basis of straight production. $60 million remaining for a physically deteriorating catcher is a huge commitment.

 

[metafour]

By backloaded 60m left you mean backloaded 40m left

I literally keep forgetting that we are in 2017.

 

[zeke]

Yadier Molina is worth more to the Cardinals than he is to any other team. That new contract he signed had a whole lot of off-field factors going into it that stretch well past actual on-field performance; most notably appeasing fans and ensuring that he retires as a Cardinal. You can read write-ups of that deal and see a lot of blatant "yeah, he's probably going to decline badly, but this deal is about more than just production" coping. The point is, while Molina holds obvious sentimental value to the Cardinals that justifies the contract they gave him, that doesn't exactly hold any relevance to a team looking to acquire Martin today on the basis of straight production. $60 million remaining for a physically deteriorating catcher is a huge commitment.

are the cardinals known for wasting money?

 

[Mach85]

The Cardinals weren't afraid to walk away from Pujols.

 

[hockeywiz542]

miami — there are two major hurdles standing in the way of major league baseball possibly returning to montreal: Oakland and tampa bay.

commissioner rob manfred spoke with media on monday during an all-star game town hall meeting where he said mlb will continue to delay any plans for expansion until after the oakland athletics and tampa bay rays get new ballparks.

“i think it would be difficult to convince the owners to go forward with an expansion until those situations are resolved,†said manfred.

“once they’re done, i think we have some great candidates,†manfred said. “i know the mayor of montreal has been very vocal about bringing baseball back to montreal. It was not great when the expos left. The fact of the matter was baseball was successful in montreal for a very long time. Charlotte is a possibility. And i would like to think that mexico city or some place in mexico would be another possibility.â€

 

[metafour]

are the cardinals known for wasting money?

The Cardinals aren't known for throwing $30 mill at relievers like Cecil either. You'd think a "smart" franchise could find a 0.5 WAR reliever elsewhere; maybe a guy like Joe Smith.

There isn't a single baseball person that is going to argue against the notion that Molina's extension went well beyond "baseball". Just because St. Louis is a "smart" organization, it doesn't mean that they aren't privy to locking up the face of their franchise, a fan favourite, "loyal guy", even if it means paying him more than he's likely to produce going forward. They let Pujols go and even with him flopping that was a huge blow to their fanbase who didn't exactly take that signing well.

 

[metafour]

The Cardinals weren't afraid to walk away from Pujols.

Yes, and that was a move that wasn't exactly well received at the time. There is also a pretty significant difference between keeping fans happy at the cost of 3/$60 vs. 10/$240.

 

[zeke]

so you want to just dismiss literally the best comp to martin in baseball being signed for the same price but for much longer by a very smart and successful organization in your assessment of martin's value?

i'm going to disagree with that approach.

 

[dredeye]

so you want to just dismiss literally the best comp to martin in baseball being signed for the same price but for much longer by a very smart and successful organization in your assessment of martin's value?

i'm going to disagree with that approach.

Not to mention you could make similar points about Martin but in a diffferent way. Jays wanted to show fans they are willing to sign top free agents and signed a Canadian kid to do so. One that also filled a black hole for the Jays and the perfect fit for a young staff.

I think people also forget how heavily aa back loaded his contract to manipulate the payroll while he was here. 5 years 82 million is 16.4 a year if balanced out evenly. That would make him look that much better right now if evenly distributed

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Bichette is in the lineup for Dunedin today. Was delayed just started.

I see there is somewhat of a log jam with positions. Biggio, Gurriel, Bichette and Guerrero.

Gurriel is going to see time in the outfield as well. Kind of grooming him to be in a utility role, which is probably his role if\when he makes it to the majors.

I wouldn't worry about Biggio\Bones taking AB's away.

 

[doorman]

The Cardinals aren't known for throwing $30 mill at relievers like Cecil either. You'd think a "smart" franchise could find a 0.5 WAR reliever elsewhere; maybe a guy like Joe Smith.

There isn't a single baseball person that is going to argue against the notion that Molina's extension went well beyond "baseball". Just because St. Louis is a "smart" organization, it doesn't mean that they aren't privy to locking up the face of their franchise, a fan favourite, "loyal guy", even if it means paying him more than he's likely to produce going forward. They let Pujols go and even with him flopping that was a huge blow to their fanbase who didn't exactly take that signing well.

While I obviously wouldn't know for sure, I guessing when AA wanted to sign Martin, part of the pitch he would've made went beyond on field production. He would've talked about leadership, helping current staff and molding young pitchers that the organization had at the time. Things he was well know for when he signed.

 

[Discoverer]

Assuming Martin finishes the year with a line somewhere around what he's done so far this year (115 wRC+, ~3.0 fWAR), then he would be in line to earn a lot more than $40 million as a free agent.

Factor in his game-calling and pitch-framing, and his contract is absolutely fine. If he were to be traded, then it would make sense to retain as much as possible because that will always increase the return, but it's not like he's in a situation where the team would have to retain just to have someone take him. He has surplus value.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Kicking tires on Dee Gordon apparently - this from the Fan 590 just now

Article from Heyman: https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/marlins/heyman-teams-checking-dee-gordon-marlins-listen/

 

[doorman]

Assuming Martin finishes the year with a line somewhere around what he's done so far this year (115 wRC+, ~3.0 fWAR), then he would be in line to earn a lot more than $40 million as a free agent.

Factor in his game-calling and pitch-framing, and his contract is absolutely fine. If he were to be traded, then it would make sense to retain as much as possible because that will always increase the return, but it's not like he's in a situation where the team would have to retain just to have someone take him. He has surplus value.

See and I wouldn't trade him. To me his value if you bring in young pitchers and position players is through leadership and teaching how the game is supposed to be played. Somethings need to be taught by other players and not coaches, he is one of the guys who seems to revel in sharing his knowledge of the game. That goes beyond whatever you would most likely get in return.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

The Blue Jays would rebuild at the right time then

 

[TOGuy14]

If the NHL was able to get a $500M expansion fee out of LV, how much would MLB ask? $750M? $1B? A bottom feeding team like the Marlins are apparently going to sell between $1.3B - $1.7B

Who has the pockets deep enough to float that cost alone?