Post-Game Talk: Microcosm

[bobbythebrain]

Maybe Nuge should just be credited goals for hitting posts now. lol They should count. snicker

Nobody disputes the Oilers should have got the result. They were playing Ottawa, a team that cannot defend at all, and that gave up 40 shots while hardly ever having the puck. The Oilers still managed to lose. After getting blown out in Toronto.

Both Cychrun goals were CC into the dot from low post passes. Another a giveaway and Batherson walks in uncontested to the slot.
When Drai scores those goals he's a stud, great pass by McD or whoever. When McD walks into the slot uncontested, he's the GOAT
Yet when another team scores those our goalies are to blame, and the team sucks

Hockey is about luck too. And watching 3 posts and 2 unwarranted PP goals was definitely more of a catalyst than shitting on the team/player every time there's a goal and a loss

 

[guymez]

Some interesting splits regarding our specials teams

At home our pp is the best in the league and our PK is the 4th best. Absolutely elite special teams on home ice.

On the road our pp drops to 14th and our pk drops all the way to 28th. Significant drop off for both but especially that pk. My god.

I seem to recall that this was an issue when McLellan was coach as well.

 

[iCanada]

Both Cychrun goals were CC into the dot from low post passes. Another a giveaway and Batherson walks in uncontested to the slot.
When Drai scores those goals he's a stud, great pass by McD or whoever. When McD walks into the slot uncontested, he's the GOAT
Yet when another team scores those our goalies are to blame, and the team sucks

Hockey is about luck too. And watching 3 posts and 2 unwarranted PP goals was definitely more of a catalyst than shitting on the team/player every time there's a goal and a loss

I guess the thing for me is - for every time McDavid or Draisaitl score that goal, it gets saved 4-5 times.

The sens had 7 high danger scoring chances and scored on 4 of them. The Saturday the Leafs had 8 high danger scoring chances and scored on 5 of them.

That's why I get on goaltending. We're generating changes at an elite level, and converting on our chances at an elite level. We're limiting chances against at an elite level. Yet somehow we get scored on at a much higher rate per chance against than the rest of the league by an extremely large margin.

Either that's goaltending, or somehow our defense despite limiting chances very well is somehow several standard deviations worse than even say Chicago or Anaheim's. Even guys like Carrick, Henrique, and Stecher are seeing their oniceHDCAsv% drop significantly coming from Anaheim and Arizona. There are only really three options - is it puck luck? Did they get significantly worse at defending after the trade? Or are Skinner and Pickard significantly worse than Gibson/Dostal/Vejmelka/Ingram?

 

[Stoneman89]

I guess the thing for me is - for every time McDavid or Draisaitl score that goal, it gets saved 4-5 times.

The sens had 7 high danger scoring chances and scored on 4 of them. The Saturday the Leafs had 8 high danger scoring chances and scored on 5 of them.

That's why I get on goaltending. We're generating changes at an elite level, and converting on our chances at an elite level. We're limiting chances against at an elite level. Yet somehow we get scored on at a much higher rate per chance against than the rest of the league by an extremely large margin.

Either that's goaltending, or somehow our defense despite limiting chances very well is somehow several standard deviations worse than even say Chicago or Anaheim's. Even guys like Carrick, Henrique, and Stecher are seeing their oniceHDCAsv% drop significantly coming from Anaheim and Arizona. There are only really three options - is it puck luck? Did they get significantly worse at defending after the trade? Or are Skinner and Pickard significantly worse than Gibson/Dostal/Vejmelka/Ingram?

Gee, I wonder why it gets saved most times. It's been McDavid and Draisaitl's go-to move on the PP and a bunch of other times for several years now, and they try it at least a couple times each PP. Teams have scouts and film galore these days and lock into tendencies. So the goalie knows McDavid will likely not shoot and moves over to the other side prematurely, making it look like a much better save than it really is, since he knew it was going there. Duh.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Both Cychrun goals were CC into the dot from low post passes. Another a giveaway and Batherson walks in uncontested to the slot.
When Drai scores those goals he's a stud, great pass by McD or whoever. When McD walks into the slot uncontested, he's the GOAT
Yet when another team scores those our goalies are to blame, and the team sucks

Hockey is about luck too. And watching 3 posts and 2 unwarranted PP goals was definitely more of a catalyst than shitting on the team/player every time there's a goal and a loss

We get it. These are NHL teams and the Sens are capable of making good plays offensively. Thats in their DNA, they can score and I said that before game. What the Sens cannot do is defend and its unacceptable how much trouble we have scoring against clubs like this. Without the Hyman year that he's having this would be even more highlighted. It isn't just that a lot of our players were cold in this game, they have been pretty much all season.

Sure one can say Nuge and the team are unlucky he hit 3 posts. But that doesn't explain away his previous dozen games when he's got his muff shots out again. Or that he has only 16 goals on a whole season playing with a guy thats gonna bag 100 assists. In explicable how Nuge has this much difficulty scoring most seasons and how little he keeps his shot as sharp as it can be. I kept hearing about McD working OT working on aspects of play. Why wouldn't somebody like Nuge be doing that? He's critical to this team going an extra mile but seems content to have another also ran season after showing everybody would he could get done just last season.

Several players aren't giving their best. That Hyman is, exemplifies what kind of disparity there is in that.

I called it too. When Nuge was having his stellar season last year I doubted it would happen the year after, or even in the playoffs. Nuge has never put up two great seasons in a row. he just doesn't. Goes back to conservative "good enough". Nuge was actually being an impact dynamic player last season, like he can. Not injured either, he's just back in his comfort zone letting others do the heaviest digging.

Once again a center like Danault is having a more impactful season for a club.

 

[Stoneman89]

I think you're being unnecessarily divisive and that's not conducive to a healthy discussion

I also don't think that's true at all that I only shit on Skinner. I think you and I just have fundamentally different ideas of what is good Goaltending - you're looking for good GAA and save percentage, and I'm comparing how many hard saves a guy is making compared to most at this level.

That's fine. We'll see I guess who is more right come playoff time.

If the same shitty defensive habits continue in the playoffs, it will prove that those habits that are killing us now, just continue when the stakes are higher.

And it's not a matter of seeing who's right come playoff time. I want the team to do well, and I want Skinner to be a big part of that. It's what we have. Sometimes I think certain people on here want certain players to fail so they can wave their finger in everyone's face and say, "Ha ha, look at me, I was right.", at the expense of the team doing well.

 

[Stoneman89]

We get it. These are NHL teams and the Sens are capable of making good plays offensively. Thats in their DNA, they can score and I said that before game. What the Sens cannot do is defend and its unacceptable how much trouble we have scoring against clubs like this. Without the Hyman year that he's having this would be even more highlighted. It isn't just that a lot of our players were cold in this game, they have been pretty much all season.

Sure one can say Nuge and the team are unlucky he hit 3 posts. But that doesn't explain away his previous dozen games when he's got his muff shots out again. Or that he has only 16 goals on a whole season playing with a guy thats gonna bag 100 assists. In explicable how Nuge has this much difficulty scoring most seasons and how little he keeps his shot as sharp as it can be. I kept hearing about McD working OT working on aspects of play. Why wouldn't somebody like Nuge be doing that? He's critical to this team going an extra mile but seems content to have another also ran season after showing everybody would he could get done just last season.

Several players aren't giving their best. That Hyman is, exemplifies what kind of disparity there is in that.

I called it too. When Nuge was having his stellar season last year I doubted it would happen the year after, or even in the playoffs.

Once again a center like Danault is having a more impactful season for a club.

Nuge is not a 103 point guy. Everyone on here knows that was an outlier. A great outlier nonetheless, but an outlier. He's a 70-75 point guy that will always get way more assists than goals (probably a 25/50 ratio), but is the bumper guy on the PP and a number one option on the PK. He hasn't been playing his best hockey lately, but you might want to temper your expectations as to his statistical numbers for the year.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I guess the thing for me is - for every time McDavid or Draisaitl score that goal, it gets saved 4-5 times.

The sens had 7 high danger scoring chances and scored on 4 of them. The Saturday the Leafs had 8 high danger scoring chances and scored on 5 of them.

That's why I get on goaltending. We're generating changes at an elite level, and converting on our chances at an elite level. We're limiting chances against at an elite level. Yet somehow we get scored on at a much higher rate per chance against than the rest of the league by an extremely large margin.

Either that's goaltending, or somehow our defense despite limiting chances very well is somehow several standard deviations worse than even say Chicago or Anaheim's. Even guys like Carrick, Henrique, and Stecher are seeing their oniceHDCAsv% drop significantly coming from Anaheim and Arizona. There are only really three options - is it puck luck? Did they get significantly worse at defending after the trade? Or are Skinner and Pickard significantly worse than Gibson/Dostal/Vejmelka/Ingram?

But you touch on the other thing that because some players on this club just feel its OK to slump longterm that everything as usual falls on McDrai/Hyman to get it done. Its inexcusable that Kane has an 18 game scoreless string. Or Nuge again 13 games without a goal. We're not a deep enough team in talent to afford two abysmal scoring slumps by players. We need all our 30 goal scorers to be that. It should be embarassing to Nuge that Foegele has more EV goals and EV pts. jebus be better than a bottomsix player. With no disrespect to Foegele who is one of the few players on the team having a good year by their standards.

So teams can just sit on McDrai all day and double team them because few others are cashing. makes us far easier to defend. I mean Nuge had 6 wide open looks yesterday because teams are cheating off him. They're taking their chances he won't finish. They have too much else to cover. Especially on our PP.

 

[MessierII]

I seem to recall that this was an issue when McLellan was coach as well.

It was but it was the opposite. We were garbage on both special teams at home. In fact I think we had the worst home pk ever in league history one years. On the road we were kind of middle of the pack in both.

 

[iCanada]

If the same shitty defensive habits continue in the playoffs, it will prove that those habits that are killing us now, just continue when the stakes are higher.

And it's not a matter of seeing who's right come playoff time. I want the team to do well, and I want Skinner to be a big part of that. It's what we have. Sometimes I think certain people on here want certain players to fail so they can wave their finger in everyone's face and say, "Ha ha, look at me, I was right.", at the expense of the team doing well.

I don't think we have exceptionally shitty defensive habits though. What I'm saying and have been saying is that the analytics have consistently noted that we have some of the best scoring chances metrics in the league.

They also say we generally get a large percentage of high quality chances and give up a low percentage of high quality chances. We also just generally get scored on more than anyone else does in comparison to our expected goals. This is the case across multiple different models.

Now - expected goals models aren't perfect. But they take into account a ton of things. Like shot location, shooter's talent levels, what happened before the shot (magnitude of angle change, passing, rebounds, give aways, etc), how contested a shot is, how much time and space a player has, etc.

We're a massive outlier - either the two independent and different models are both wrong fundamentally and we're bad defensively, or our Goaltending is bad.

And to be clear - I'd love nothing more than for Skinner to go out and collect 16 straight shutouts. I do want the team to win.

 

[guymez]

If the same shitty defensive habits continue in the playoffs, it will prove that those habits that are killing us now, just continue when the stakes are higher.

And it's not a matter of seeing who's right come playoff time. I want the team to do well, and I want Skinner to be a big part of that. It's what we have. Sometimes I think certain people on here want certain players to fail so they can wave their finger in everyone's face and say, "Ha ha, look at me, I was right.", at the expense of the team doing well.

Indeed and if the analytics were more granular then they would reflect that reality.
They arent. At least the analytics that the fans have access to arent.

Do people actually watch the games with an analytical eye anymore?
Sometimes I wonder.

 

[VerdadII]

Both Cychrun goals were CC into the dot from low post passes. Another a giveaway and Batherson walks in uncontested to the slot.
When Drai scores those goals he's a stud, great pass by McD or whoever. When McD walks into the slot uncontested, he's the GOAT
Yet when another team scores those our goalies are to blame, and the team sucks

Hockey is about luck too. And watching 3 posts and 2 unwarranted PP goals was definitely more of a catalyst than shitting on the team/player every time there's a goal and a loss

Nurse is a cancer at the core of this team. It you don't see that you don't watch these games.
An absence of quality goaltending on the Oilers is reality also.
Face it.
Blame the idiot Holland for allowing this to persist especially with the two best hockey players in the world on your team rotting away due to collateral ineptitude.

 

[Soundwave]

But you touch on the other thing that because some players on this club just feel its OK to slump longterm that everything as usual falls on McDrai/Hyman to get it done. Its inexcusable that Kane has an 18 game scoreless string. Or Nuge again 13 games without a goal. We're not a deep enough team in talent to afford two abysmal scoring slumps by players. We need all our 30 goal scorers to be that. It should be embarassing to Nuge that Foegele has more EV goals and EV pts. jebus be better than a bottomsix player. With no disrespect to Foegele who is one of the few players on the team having a good year by their standards.

So teams can just sit on McDrai all day and double team them because few others are cashing. makes us far easier to defend. I mean Nuge had 6 wide open looks yesterday because teams are cheating off him. They're taking their chances he won't finish. They have too much else to cover. Especially on our PP.

Agreed. RNH and Kane need to wake up. RNH is stapled to McDavid for long stretches too, like dude come on.

 

[VerdadII]

I don't think we have exceptionally shitty defensive habits though. What I'm saying and have been saying is that the analytics have consistently noted that we have some of the best scoring chances metrics in the league.

They also say we generally get a large percentage of high quality chances and give up a low percentage of high quality chances. We also just generally get scored on more than anyone else does in comparison to our expected goals. This is the case across multiple different models.

Now - expected goals models aren't perfect. But they take into account a ton of things. Like shot location, shooter's talent levels, what happened before the shot (magnitude of angle change, passing, rebounds, give aways, etc), how contested a shot is, how much time and space a player has, etc.

We're a massive outlier - either the two independent and different models are both wrong fundamentally and we're bad defensively, or our Goaltending is bad.

And to be clear - I'd love nothing more than for Skinner to go out and collect 16 straight shutouts. I do want the team to win.

Skinner is not a quality goalie, no one needs a model to know that.

Or that Hollland is an abject incompetent.

 

[guymez]

It was but it was the opposite. We were garbage on both special teams at home. In fact I think we had the worst home pk ever in league history one years. On the road we were kind of middle of the pack in both.

Thats right. Thanks for that.

The Oilers managed to make an Ottawa team that was bad on the PP all season look great.
Thats quite a feat.

 

[bucks_oil]

Both Cychrun goals were CC into the dot from low post passes. Another a giveaway and Batherson walks in uncontested to the slot.
When Drai scores those goals he's a stud, great pass by McD or whoever. When McD walks into the slot uncontested, he's the GOAT
Yet when another team scores those our goalies are to blame, and the team sucks

Hockey is about luck too. And watching 3 posts and 2 unwarranted PP goals was definitely more of a catalyst than shitting on the team/player every time there's a goal and a loss

100% agree. There are no weak teams in this league. The difference is consistency and we've largely had that since November.

To the guys shitting on our shots on goal: it was one game, we are 1st in the league in shots on goal

To the guys shitting on our back to back 0.700 spct: it's a team stat at the game by game level. Both guys are above league average this season on a team not necessarily known for its team defense.

To the guys upset we lost to a non-playoff team. Everyone takes their turn:

• Boston lost to: Seattle (twice), Calgary (twice), Washington, NYI all in the month of Feb
• Toronto lost to: Islanders and Sens in Feb
• Vancouver lost to: Detroit, Seattle, Minnesota and Pittsburgh in Feb
• Vegas has recently lost to: Columbus, Buffalo, Minnesota, Calgary, and the Sens

 

[bucks_oil]

Now - expected goals models aren't perfect. But they take into account a ton of things. Like shot location, shooter's talent levels, what happened before the shot (magnitude of angle change, passing, rebounds, give aways, etc), how contested a shot is, how much time and space a player has, etc.

I am a data-driven person, but I HATE, HATE, HATE these "advanced" stats. They are mapping data from the perspective of the shooter, or at the very least and eye in the sky.

The only things that matter to me when I'm trying to make the save are in order:
1) Can I see it
2) Can I cut the angle and force a shot or does the shooter have all the options (pass, deke, time, etc)

 

[Soundwave]

Nurse is a cancer at the core of this team. It you don't see that you don't watch these games.
An absence of quality goaltending on the Oilers is reality also.
Face it.
Blame the idiot Holland for allowing this to persist especially with the two best hockey players in the world on your team rotting away due to collateral ineptitude.

I've said it before but the only person who can get inside Nurse's head and get him to play at a real elite level is probably Daryl Sutter.

Nurse needs someone who will break down every inch of the ice surface for him and tell him exactly what he should do in any kind of situation and rip his ass a new one and embarrass him in front of the entire team if he decides to go for an adventure.

A regular coach, even a good one, won't cut it for Nurse.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

It was but it was the opposite. We were garbage on both special teams at home. In fact I think we had the worst home pk ever in league history one years. On the road we were kind of middle of the pack in both.

I remember the one year in late January we were ranked dead last on the PK at home & ranked 1st on the PK on the road.

I theorized it was the orange "glow in the dark" home uniforms & was told I was crazy. I still think it was.

 

[K1984]

I remember the one year in late January we were ranked dead last on the PK at home & ranked 1st on the PK on the road.

I theorized it was the orange "glow in the dark" home uniforms & was told I was crazy. I still think it was.

I'm dead honest saying this - I think they get spooked by the crowd getting excited the PA announcer doing the "PP pump up" announcement, etc which impacts their ability to play. In Edmonton we cheer the good they do on the kill, on the road they cheer the PK's f*** ups.

This team has major problems preforming when they feel pressure. Even though that is pressure in isolation, I can't help but think it plays a role.

 

[Lacaar]

I just think this is kind of how good teams lose hockey games.

The Oilers players just didn't have the finish necessary to score and hence win the hockey game.

Ottawa's did despite having much fewer chances.

We call it goalie'd but I hate just saying the other goalie was better etc. The Oilers shooters are just as responsible for failing to convert on those chances.

I don't fear goalies like Helleybuck. I fear for the Oilers ability to convert on their scoring chances against any goalie. Maybe it's just a feeling but it seems we need so many chances to score compared to our rivals.. or for that fact... anyone we play.

 

[iCanada]

I am a data-driven person, but I HATE, HATE, HATE these "advanced" stats. They are mapping data from the perspective of the shooter, or at the very least and eye in the sky.

The only things that matter to me when I'm trying to make the save are in order:
1) Can I see it
2) Can I cut the angle and force a shot or does the shooter have all the options (pass, deke, time, etc)

So how would you propose to change those advanced stats?

I do think number two is generally accounted for in two of the three most popular models, there is consideration for how much open space a guy has and the number of defenders vs number of attackers within a certain radius. There's also modifiers for whether puck was passed or not, and whether or not the shot is contested by a defenseman.

Number one though I think is an impossible metric to consider. What each Goaltender can see is a little bit different, and whether you can see it or not also isn't a really impactful metric because there's a few different variables - one he can see you but you can't see him (dangerous), neither of you can see one another (not dangerous as getting puck through is hard / impossible). This is a fair critique though.

 

[McDrai]

We'll need Jack Campbell to come to the rescue in the playoffs if the Oilers want to go to the finals.

Let’s lower our expectations here. I’d be happy if this current version of the Oilers won a round or two

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Last game sucked, this is f***ing awesome

 

[Stoneman89]

I don't think we have exceptionally shitty defensive habits though. What I'm saying and have been saying is that the analytics have consistently noted that we have some of the best scoring chances metrics in the league.

They also say we generally get a large percentage of high quality chances and give up a low percentage of high quality chances. We also just generally get scored on more than anyone else does in comparison to our expected goals. This is the case across multiple different models.

Now - expected goals models aren't perfect. But they take into account a ton of things. Like shot location, shooter's talent levels, what happened before the shot (magnitude of angle change, passing, rebounds, give aways, etc), how contested a shot is, how much time and space a player has, etc.

We're a massive outlier - either the two independent and different models are both wrong fundamentally and we're bad defensively, or our Goaltending is bad.

And to be clear - I'd love nothing more than for Skinner to go out and collect 16 straight shutouts. I do want the team to win.

Okay, you don't think our goaltending is good enough. After about 8 million posts, and an equal number of graphs and charts to make one's head spin, we get it. Now, can we all just try to cheer for all the guys and give some support to everyone in the hopes that we can win it all this year?

As to the bolded, that is likely the scenario that will have to happen for you and a few others to get off the guys back. Or not.