Michigan shot percentage / conversion rate

[Flamingo]

I'm looking for shooting percentages on the Michigan in the NHL.

Amongst my hockey bretheren, there's still a lot of disagreement over whether the Michigan is a solid tactic or a selfish, showboating move.

I love the Michigan, though I haven't pulled it off myself. I think it's a solid hockey play that doesn't deserve the scorn of the so-called traditionalists. My argument centers on the fact that the conversion rate is pretty high, and that a goal is a goal, no matter how flashy its execution. If it were a low-percentage move, and it caused a team to lose a higher-chance centering pass from behind the net, then yeah, I would consider the move selfish and showboaty.

It seems to me that I see about a 50% conversion rate. Now, the high conversion rate is likley affected by the fact that it's rare, so defenders often aren't quick enough with a stick check; and by the fact that only players that are pretty confident with the move attempt it in a game. It would be pretty embarrasing for someone that doesn't have the skill nailed down to try it an flub it more than once in a couple of seasons.

Has anyone seen stats compiled yet on Michigan shooting percentage?

Let's define a Michigan attempt having been made once the player gets the puck resting on the blade of his stick. Let's not count attempts where the player seems to drop his top hand to scoop the puck up, but never has it resting on the blade. In those cases, the player typically retains possession.

And if you don't have a source for the stats, what's your argument for the Michigan being a solid hockey play, or for it deserving scorn?

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[nofehr]

This is only quick back-of-napkin math, but my analysis shows a 69.420% conversion rate.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'm looking for shooting percentages on the Michigan in the NHL.

Amongst my hockey bretheren, there's still a lot of disagreement over whether the Michigan is a solid tactic or a selfish, showboating move.

I love the Michigan, though I haven't pulled it off myself. I think it's a solid hockey play that doesn't deserve the scorn of the so-called traditionalists. My argument centers on the fact that the conversion rate is pretty high, and that a goal is a goal, no matter how flashy its execution. If it were a low-percentage move, and it caused a team to lose a higher-chance centering pass from behind the net, then yeah, I would consider the move selfish and showboaty.

It seems to me that I see about a 50% conversion rate. Now, the high conversion rate is likley affected by the fact that it's rare, so defenders often aren't quick enough with a stick check; and by the fact that only players that are pretty confident with the move attempt it in a game. It would be pretty embarrasing for someone that doesn't have the skill nailed down to try it an flub it more than once in a couple of seasons.

Has anyone seen stats compiled yet on Michigan shooting percentage?

Let's define a Michigan attempt having been made once the player gets the puck resting on the blade of his stick. Let's not count attempts where the player seems to drop his top hand to scoop the puck up, but never has it resting on the blade. In those cases, the player typically retains possession.

And if you don't have a source for the stats, what's your argument for the Michigan being a solid hockey play, or for it deserving scorn?

50% seems about right for situations where they actually generate a shot attempt.

 

[Flamingo]

This is only quick back-of-napkin math, but my analysis shows a 69.420% conversion rate.

I'm sensing this was an AI-generated calculation, using a training model relying heavily on a corpus of the Wayne's World script.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

Off the top of my head I'd say Svechnikov is about 2 for 5 or so with attempts that get onto the blade of his stick and towards the net.

 

[Satan]

This is only quick back-of-napkin math, but my analysis shows a 69.420% conversion rate.

i also ran some quick numbers....

 

[Evergreen]

The success rate is probably higher than it is for other types of shots because guys generally won’t try it unless they are pretty damn sure it will work.

 

[Toby91ca]

The success rate is probably higher than it is for other types of shots because guys generally won’t try it unless they are pretty damn sure it will work.

This, it's a useless exercise to calculation because it would entirely be skewed. It is attempted so few times, the times it's attempted the player generally has a lot more time and space than usual and think it will work. The vast majority of times, guys are going to try it unless they are pretty confident it will work because if it doesn't they look dumb.

 

[Flamingo]

This, it's a useless exercise to calculation because it would entirely be skewed. It is attempted so few times, the times it's attempted the player generally has a lot more time and space than usual and think it will work. The vast majority of times, guys are going to try it unless they are pretty confident it will work because if it doesn't they look dumb.

Well, yeah. I said that in my opening post. But it doesn't matter that the results are skewed by shooters being very selective about trying it. That shooter discretion is part of the equation.

I'm more concerned about the skew in perceived success rate because a successful Michigan attempt is much more likely to be seen than a failed Michigan attempt. Only fans that watch the games could really have an impression. And it really depends on which team. I haven't seen a Sens player attempt a Michigan this season, and I've watched maybe 40% of their games. Ducks, Blackhawks, and Hurricanes fans would likely have a better sense of how often Michigans are attempted and how often they succeed.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

i also ran some quick numbers....

View attachment 829691

what does the "Yo" button do on a calculator?

 

[Chainshot]

what does the "Yo" button do on a calculator?

That's a Stallone-84 model.

 

[Toby91ca]

Well, yeah. I said that in my opening post. But it doesn't matter that the results are skewed by shooters being very selective about trying it. That shooter discretion is part of the equation.

I'm more concerned about the skew in perceived success rate because a successful Michigan attempt is much more likely to be seen than a failed Michigan attempt. Only fans that watch the games could really have an impression. And it really depends on which team. I haven't seen a Sens player attempt a Michigan this season, and I've watched maybe 40% of their games. Ducks, Blackhawks, and Hurricanes fans would likely have a better sense of how often Michigans are attempted and how often they succeed.

My point was more about what you do with the results. For example....it might show an 80% success rate....but then what? It's kind of meaningless.

 

[Satan]

what does the "Yo" button do on a calculator?

calls up one of ur homies

 

[Flamingo]

My point was more about what you do with the results. For example....it might show an 80% success rate....but then what? It's kind of meaningless.

I take your numbers to my people.

And I consume comments of any general impressions people have of the Michigan as a hockey play and secretly judge the posters.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

If I had to guess I'd say Svech has tried it about 10 times in his career. He has converted twice so that would be 20% conversion rate on attempts. Shooting percentage may be 100% though as I don't think he's had attempts that were ever saved by the goalie -- either he lost it off his blade, a defender knocked it away, or it hit the post/just missed entirely.

edit: to add I shared that as a data point from watching the Canes and Svech being one of the guys who attempts it the most. can't speak to other teams or say that this would extrapolate across the league.

 

[NVious]

50%, you either make it or you don't.

 

[Flamingo]

50%, you either make it or you don't.

Logical start if you're going to apply perturbation theory. What's your first-order perturbation?

 

[Bank Shot]

Logical start if you're going to apply perturbation theory. What's your first-order perturbation?

The Michigan move perturbs the goalie which adds 10% to conversion rate.

 

[Flamingo]

The Michigan move perturbs the goalie which adds 10% to conversion rate.

I hope your NHL team's analytics office doesn't mind you sharing these insights gratis.

 

[NVious]

Logical start if you're going to apply perturbation theory. What's your first-order perturbation?

My noggin, works all the time (most of the time)

 

[Stony Curtis]

I think a failed Michigan should be called the Ohio.

 

[OrangePMD]

NHL stats page has tracked them since last season (22-23). It's called a cradle shot. Currently at 3 goals from 6 shots.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[Kairi Zaide]

This is only quick back-of-napkin math, but my analysis shows a 69.420% conversion rate.

I can't believe we have already witnessed 5000 Michigan attempts.

 

[Flamingo]

NHL stats page has tracked them since last season (22-23). It's called a cradle shot. Currently at 3 goals from 6 shots.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

Excellent! Thanks! Though I think it's missing a few attempts and goals...

Player	S Cradle	S% Cradle
Filip Forsberg	1​	0​
Joel Farabee	1​	0​
Andrei Svechnikov	1​	0​
Trevor Zegras	1​	100​
Kent Johnson	1​	100​
Connor Bedard	1​	100​

I can't believe we have already witnessed 5000 Michigan attempts.

You're assuming Michigan attempts are whole numbers.

 

[OrangePMD]

Excellent! Thanks! Though I think it's missing a few attempts and goals...

It is obviously missing all Michigans prior to the 22-23 season. And it could definitely be missing a shot or two, since not all shots get labeled correctly, but I doubt it's missing any goals from this or previous season.

The shooting percentage is there. For a convertion rate, someone would probably need to crawl shot attempt logs from all games played. It's not like convertion rate of any type of shots are easily available. Maybe some advanced stats site might have them. But the game logs do include shot types for missed and blocked shots too.