McPhee softening on the plan.

[BattleBorn]

I will adjust to whatever is going on as the season goes on. If we are in the hunt, we’ll stay in the hunt, I’m certainly not going to sit here and derail anything. –George McPhee to TSN 1050

As you know, in this business you are just trying to get through each day. I certainly have a plan but you try to get through each day and try to win on gamedays. We said from the start that we want to be as good as we can be and be as competitive as we can be and that’s what we are trying to do. -McPhee

http://sinbin.vegas/im-certainly-not-going-sit-derail-anything-george-mcphee/

Seems like Playoffs in three, cup in six may be transforming a little. However, we're still set up, contract-wise for playoffs in three. Should be a fun remainder of the season to see how this all plays out.

Click to read more...

 

[Nevada Jones]

The quicker, the better.

 

[VanIslander]

Remember: Billionaire Bill said he would like to win the Stanley Cup as soon as possible. He backtracked on his ambitious viewpoint after GM George McPhee squashed the idea in an attempt at managing expectations, something all GMs who wish to keep their jobs have done for time immemorial.

I doubt whether McPhee will run out and trade for short-term UFA rentals and push the team to the cap ceiling like some GMs do to try and win in the short term. But he may opt to re-sign a UFA or two he had initially thought about trading at the deadline. For example, while the team's top two scorers Neal and Perron are about to become thirtysomething and ought to get decent offers at the deadline that McPhee would accept, it might not be worth trading Sbisa for a mere 4th round pick given how valuable he has proven to be to this team. Of course, he's a dman and with the glut it makes sense to move him, but maybe now he might not for next to nothing. Interestingly, Engelland, the 35-year-old Vegas native, has played so well he might be worth re-signing to a 1- or 2-year deal at a hometown discount if Deryk walked into his office and said he would accept a $1 million per year deal if there was a NTC. 27-year-old Marchessault is an intriguing UFA given his age and the fact that he leads the team in shots taken, and has 9 points in 10 games played. But, at the end of the day, he is only 6th in ice time and 5th in scoring among Vegas forwards, so the wheels of the playoff bus ought not to fall off with his absence.

Of the seven UFAs this season, I pray the team keeps Perron and fear Sbisa might be irreplaceable for a Vegas squad that wants to make the playoffs and make some noise once there! I can't imagine other teams not making substantial offers for Neal (5th in Vegas forward ice time but tops in scoring) and so keeping him is an unrealistic wish and really he has the most value to a team desperate in the short-term, like one led by one of the GMs whose job is in jeopardy if they don't have playoff success, which is not our team's situation.

The upshot is: Trading Neal or Marchessault might not derail the team whereas moving Sbisa or Perron likely would.

 

[BattleBorn]

Sinbin pointed out that the VGK push goes into neutral whenever Engelland is on the ice, and I've paid attention to that the last two games.

I'm starting to think Engelland may be a good spark plug in the room, but he's an offensive nightmare. I'd like to see him paired up with Theo for a couple of games and see what happens.

 

[VanIslander]

Sinbin pointed out that the VGK push goes into neutral whenever Engelland is on the ice, and I've paid attention to that the last two games.

I'm starting to think Engelland may be a good spark plug in the room, but he's an offensive nightmare. I'd like to see him paired up with Theo for a couple of games and see what happens.

He's not an offensive defenseman but the coach certainly puts him out on the ice more often than offensive-minded Miller (Miller has the team's worst plus-minus). Engelland hits a lot, blocks shots a lot and even takes shots a lot, though low quality ones, often at the end of a shift or to get the puck in without icing, forcing the goalie to play the puck.

Heck, Sbisa is an offensive nightmare. He has zero points on the powerplay, no goals and rarely shoots. But he is on the top pairing and does a lot of little things right. Both Sbisa and Engelland are in a top-4 role for this squad. Yeah, I would like to see Engelland on the third pairing with mistake-prone Miller or rookie green Theodore. But I think his value to the team extends beyond just a locker room presence.

 

[BattleBorn]

There's a difference between being a defensive defenseman and putting a hamper on the team altogether. Since it's been mentioned, I've noticed it more.

Keep an eye on it tonight in a game where we should (by all accounts) be overmatched. As soon as Engelland is in either the defensive zone or the offensive zone with all 10 guys on the same side of a blue line, the team just struggles. It has for the last two with him out there.

 

[airbus220]

Heck, Sbisa is an offensive nightmare. He has zero points on the powerplay

Sbisa doesn't need to have PP points, he plays 20 seconds PP per game, obviously the garbage time.

 

[IceColdBear]

I'm curious about the Vegas fan base.

Are you guys hoping for playoffs, or a top pick?

If you had to choose one, which would you take?

Has your answer changed since the start of the year?

As someone who likes you guys, but doesn't watch many games, I think it would be better for you guys to get a top pick. If I were watching every game my opinion might be different, though.

 

[BattleBorn]

After our first lottery, I'm personally happy to never participate in another.

We got three first rounders in the last draft so I'm okay if we don't draft super high. However, we're going to have a lot of turnover this coming offseason by design and we're going to need some guys. Very few of these guys are likely to be a part of the "core" of a contending Knights team, so I guess I want the best player we can get. I just don't want to have to get into tank mode to do it.

 

[Vegas Mac]

McPhee needs to keep his focus on stocking this organization through the draft. He isn't going to say it publicly, but making the playoffs in year one is a situation that works against that goal because they lose a shot at the lottery pick. Even if it's a non-favored chance, maintaining that is important.

So IMO that has never changed. All that has changed is the perception that the VGK would be among the worst teams in the league. Make no mistake, however, that moving Neal and whoever else they can get a high pick for remains the goal. It's gonna happen, and that's a good thing.

Now if they can move a couple guys and still make the playoffs, well that would be incredible. But again the stocking of the organization with high end talent is priority number one. Still.

 

[VanIslander]

But again the stocking of the organization with high end talent is priority number one. Still.

Priority number one is building the foundation for success in Vegas. That means developing the fanbase, the team identity and organization's ethos as much as the prospect pool.

Making the playoffs would be deemed a success by the coach and the owner, and the GM knows that. You think it would be better to be a bubble team that just misses the playoffs and gets a 2.7 % chance or less of 1st overall than it would be to make the playoffs and accept the fact that there'd be zero chance at 1st overall? I doubt McPhee is in that boat.

 

[Gerin]

Priority number one is building the foundation for success in Vegas. That means developing the fanbase, the team identity and organization's ethos as much as the prospect pool.

Making the playoffs would be deemed a success by the coach and the owner, and the GM knows that. You think it would be better to be a bubble team that just misses the playoffs and gets a 2.7 % chance or less of 1st overall than it would be to make the playoffs and accept the fact that there'd be zero chance at 1st overall? I doubt McPhee is in that boat.

It's not just the slight chance of 1st overall, but more towards getting plentiful of draft picks and prospects by being a seller, because what are the odds of winning a cup even in the next three years? So why even push for playoffs.

Realistically, this team isn't going to be in a playoff position by trade deadline. We are already seeing it with I think a 1-4-1 record recently. I know VGK are riding a 4th string goalie and all, but Fleury can only steal so many.

Best case scenario is to fail for #1 overall, draft Rasmus Dahlin who will almost certainly become a franchise defensemen. Build around him and try to get more first from guys like Neal

 

[Soundgarden]

Building through top 5 picks isn't the only way to build. Where past expansion teams may have found it better to get top picks we may not have to be so dependent on that route because of the quality of players we picked up.

We should see how far we can go, you only get one 1st year, and it's not like we're trading our 1st anyway we're still likely to grab a few very solid prospects this year, and with 7 2nd round picks in the next few drafts we could even trade up if we really want to.

Some of those games have been close ones too, with a better goalie maybe we do steal a few more. We very well could be in a playoff spot, if we are and Neal is open to re-signing I say keep him, we could always trade him in the future.

 

[BattleBorn]

The Knights are not likely to finish any worse than 3rd for the lottery just with the start to this point.

We've already lost the lottery once with (what I think is our "best" possible) position of 3rd. I realize it's not likely that the results wash out like that again with the three lowest teams getting knocked out, but why tank for a chance at the same thing happening? The lottery's there to discourage it.

 

[Aurinko]

Building through top 5 picks isn't the only way to build. Where past expansion teams may have found it better to get top picks we may not have to be so dependent on that route because of the quality of players we picked up.

We should see how far we can go, you only get one 1st year, and it's not like we're trading our 1st anyway we're still likely to grab a few very solid prospects this year, and with 7 2nd round picks in the next few drafts we could even trade up if we really want to.

Some of those games have been close ones too, with a better goalie maybe we do steal a few more. We very well could be in a playoff spot, if we are and Neal is open to re-signing I say keep him, we could always trade him in the future.

I've criticized hard every single team NHL team I've had a closer look on... but not here.

McPhee and the owners have done it the right way. Instead of picking the most talented and overvalued players, they went for the hidden gems and concentrated more on building supreme environment and organization culture for the team. I was really against getting rid of Ship, but now that I look back at it, even there McPhee was right in looking at the big picture instead of a detail.

 

[Vegas Mac]

The Knights are not likely to finish any worse than 3rd for the lottery just with the start to this point.

We've already lost the lottery once with (what I think is our "best" possible) position of 3rd. I realize it's not likely that the results wash out like that again with the three lowest teams getting knocked out, but why tank for a chance at the same thing happening? The lottery's there to discourage it.

No offense, but I think things like this get too black and white with fans. The GM is responsible for building the team to a window and then trying to sustain as long as he can once they get there.

If we get into the playoffs this year and eliminated shortly thereafter, and that comes with NOT selling at the deadline to build organizational depth to include hopefully a lottery shot or two, GM has failed at his job. I say failed because this team is not yet in a contender window. So all he will have accomplished is some short term excitement in the now at the cost of long future success with additional picks from selling.

GM is off to a great start, and he chose the perfect coach. We have a guy running the show who will get 100% of his players shift to shift. That's huge, and it's appropriate to lean on him early on and place extra load on him when you trade away the pieces like Neal, as he will be the one to benefit when the waves of young players start competing for jobs in camp and give him quality long-term talent and depth.

 

[Vegas Mac]

Building through top 5 picks isn't the only way to build. Where past expansion teams may have found it better to get top picks we may not have to be so dependent on that route because of the quality of players we picked up.

We should see how far we can go, you only get one 1st year, and it's not like we're trading our 1st anyway we're still likely to grab a few very solid prospects this year, and with 7 2nd round picks in the next few drafts we could even trade up if we really want to.

Some of those games have been close ones too, with a better goalie maybe we do steal a few more. We very well could be in a playoff spot, if we are and Neal is open to re-signing I say keep him, we could always trade him in the future.

Couple things here...

First, even when you have a good lottery chance it's not like you go in feeling like you need to get within that top 5. Every draft's different, with dropoff group to group, and if you luck out on a high pick you're in business, if not then you position within reason to maximize that group depth. McPhee did a great job maximizing the cards he was dealt in the first draft, so I think being a seller this year is important at the deadline to get not only additional lottery shots, but just first round pick/s in general to load org depth.

Second, McPhee did a great job selecting underrated depth players in the expac draft; he and his staff deserve a lot of cred there. But many of those guys aren't going to be long-term pieces. That is draft and development. You can't sustain success or build into a contender window on the backs of extending veteran contracts alone, those guys need to be on top of a core of drafted and developed players for the best long-term success due to cap constraints.

Lastly, time is important because in draft and development you have to load them in time so they can mature together for a strong core of players. First draft was strong. This next one needs to be strong as well, and best way to ensure that happens is selling at the deadline. Not a firesale mind you. But selling. Deal a top piece or two for high picks, plug some young guys in and keep going in hopes that you'll still be able to at least be in the playoff mix to the last week or two of the season.

If they do this right, they'll get eliminated from playoff contention later than some other teams, but garner a couple high picks that can ensure a second straight year of strong talent influx. And who knows, maybe one of those picks ends up winning a top lottery spot and then this team would really be in business since the top guys play much quicker.

 

[Vegas Mac]

Priority number one is building the foundation for success in Vegas. That means developing the fanbase, the team identity and organization's ethos as much as the prospect pool.

Making the playoffs would be deemed a success by the coach and the owner, and the GM knows that. You think it would be better to be a bubble team that just misses the playoffs and gets a 2.7 % chance or less of 1st overall than it would be to make the playoffs and accept the fact that there'd be zero chance at 1st overall? I doubt McPhee is in that boat.

I think it would be better to be a bubble team that just misses the playoffs and gets a couple high picks from selling at the deadline, yes. It's not all about the 2.7% draft lottery win. But sure that chance is a nice benefit as well.

Sustained success is what builds the foundation for the fanbase. Getting to the playoffs in year one doesn't guarantee anything, this team might falter year two and not make the playoffs and be sitting on a lesser draft to boot because they didn't want to sell for fear of making the fans angry. Meanwhile in an alternate universe you have a team with a great GM loading for the window in year one and two, and when that success does come it's long term in nature.

But it's all good man, I don't come here to find people who agree with me. I come here to talk hockey. I'm ok disagreeing on this, seems I'm in the minority on this topic.

 

[BattleBorn]

Business-wise, you're definitely in the majority.

Emotion-wise, let's push for the playoffs.

 

[Bart9349]

I caution everyone that is hoping that the top draft pick will be another Crosby, McDavid, or Auston Matthews. Sometimes they fall flat like Nail Yakupov.

Here's an interesting list of each team's best and worst recent draft picks. Note how many first round busts there were:

Each team's best and worst draft picks

Eight out of the Canucks' 11 first-round picks during the past decade have played fewer than 100 games and only Horvat has managed to (narrowly) average at least half a point per game.

The Coyotes have had 15 first-round picks in the past 10 drafts, and 11 of them have played fewer than 150 NHL games. Three first-rounders taken between 2007 and 2012 played three or fewer games.

 

[Gerin]

I caution everyone that is hoping that the top draft pick will be another Crosby, McDavid, or Auston Matthews. Sometimes they fall flat like Nail Yakupov.

Here's an interesting list of each team's best and worst recent draft picks. Note how many first round busts there were:

Each team's best and worst draft picks

That would be more of a problem of scouting staff and how a team develops players. The fact that VGK already has a large number of drafted players and draft picks in their first few seasons would have to mean they have higher odds of turning a few or more of the picks into effective players.

If they aren't going to win the cup, why push for playoffs when instead you can trade for more picks/prospects and fall lower in the standings. Sure like many of you have said it isn't a guarantee plan for success but it will only improve the odds. The more picks you have and the earlier in the draft those picks are, than obviously your odds of developing effective NHLers are higher.

Vegas has for the next three drafts (2018-2020)
3 first, 7 seconds, and 4 third rounders. With the prospects of Glass, Suzuki and others why not continue to add over the next three years if you aren't realistically going to win a cup. With all those picks unless the GMs, scouts and other staff of VGK blow it you are bound to create a contending team for many years

 

[willy702]

That would be more of a problem of scouting staff and how a team develops players. The fact that VGK already has a large number of drafted players and draft picks in their first few seasons would have to mean they have higher odds of turning a few or more of the picks into effective players.

If they aren't going to win the cup, why push for playoffs when instead you can trade for more picks/prospects and fall lower in the standings. Sure like many of you have said it isn't a guarantee plan for success but it will only improve the odds. The more picks you have and the earlier in the draft those picks are, than obviously your odds of developing effective NHLers are higher.

Vegas has for the next three drafts (2018-2020)
3 first, 7 seconds, and 4 third rounders. With the prospects of Glass, Suzuki and others why not continue to add over the next three years if you aren't realistically going to win a cup. With all those picks unless the GMs, scouts and other staff of VGK blow it you are bound to create a contending team for many years

You mean like the Oilers? That's the flip side of the argument, they even got lucky a few times in the lottery. But now one has to wonder if their ceiling is high enough to get to the promised land as they have to pay 3 guys combined over 40% of the salary cap. This year may be tough with the injuries and all, but its an important team to study. The idea of sucking badly to get better works best really in baseball, basketball if you get lucky at the right time and get one of the few top talents, not so much in football and the jury is out on hockey. Note NHL and NFL have pretty hard caps, MLB has no cap and NBA has an extremely flexible cap. Leads me to question the ability to really be a force just from the draft. The draft is important no doubt, but having a lot of picks only insures your core team will improve, not that you can get to an elite level as a team.

 

[Vegas Mac]

You mean like the Oilers? That's the flip side of the argument, they even got lucky a few times in the lottery. But now one has to wonder if their ceiling is high enough to get to the promised land as they have to pay 3 guys combined over 40% of the salary cap. This year may be tough with the injuries and all, but its an important team to study. The idea of sucking badly to get better works best really in baseball, basketball if you get lucky at the right time and get one of the few top talents, not so much in football and the jury is out on hockey. Note NHL and NFL have pretty hard caps, MLB has no cap and NBA has an extremely flexible cap. Leads me to question the ability to really be a force just from the draft. The draft is important no doubt, but having a lot of picks only insures your core team will improve, not that you can get to an elite level as a team.

You have to remember that Vegas is also stacking an organization from nothing. From that perspective the first couple drafts having extra picks is crucial, so that when they hit year 3 they have that first wave of young players coming up and hopefully another the next season that will form the nucleus of the contending core.

Nothing's guaranteed of course, other than the fact that our owner is going to expect some sustained success starting year 3. And if you're George McPhee that should be weighing heavily on your mind, where you know full well that young players arriving that year plus some shrewd FA additions are a nice recipe for delivering what the old man is lookin for.

If they sign Neal I'll get behind it, btw. Just think that as you look at roster control over time vs expected window there's still work to do. This team has not yet arrived, nor will it for some time, but the better they load up this org the better the chances look of things coming together in time.

 

[willy702]

You have to remember that Vegas is also stacking an organization from nothing. From that perspective the first couple drafts having extra picks is crucial, so that when they hit year 3 they have that first wave of young players coming up and hopefully another the next season that will form the nucleus of the contending core.

Nothing's guaranteed of course, other than the fact that our owner is going to expect some sustained success starting year 3. And if you're George McPhee that should be weighing heavily on your mind, where you know full well that young players arriving that year plus some shrewd FA additions are a nice recipe for delivering what the old man is lookin for.

If they sign Neal I'll get behind it, btw. Just think that as you look at roster control over time vs expected window there's still work to do. This team has not yet arrived, nor will it for some time, but the better they load up this org the better the chances look of things coming together in time.

That whole year 3 is another head scratcher to me. If you build a team from drafting and using other team's overlooked players, is year 3 really when you get good enough to make the playoffs? Are Glass, Suzuki and Brannstrom, among others going to be good enough to contribute at a plus NHL level that year? Doesn't seem likely. The guys you get in year 2 draft even less likely to be plus players by then. So you have to sign free agents and find real quality out of the expansion draft. I think as well as the team has done it still feels like a lot of their "finds" are 3rd and 4th liners while the true 1st and 2nd liners seem to have a very cloudy future with the team. Doesn't feel like more than one of Neal, Marchessault or Perron is going to be signed long term. Smith is getting paid like a first liner, but sure doesn't feel like one. Same on the defense, except no one there feels like a first pairing guy except Theodore and he's a few years from that.

So how is GMGM making this a 3rd year playoff team?

 

[Gerin]

You mean like the Oilers? That's the flip side of the argument, they even got lucky a few times in the lottery. But now one has to wonder if their ceiling is high enough to get to the promised land as they have to pay 3 guys combined over 40% of the salary cap. This year may be tough with the injuries and all, but its an important team to study. The idea of sucking badly to get better works best really in baseball, basketball if you get lucky at the right time and get one of the few top talents, not so much in football and the jury is out on hockey. Note NHL and NFL have pretty hard caps, MLB has no cap and NBA has an extremely flexible cap. Leads me to question the ability to really be a force just from the draft. The draft is important no doubt, but having a lot of picks only insures your core team will improve, not that you can get to an elite level as a team.

Oilers are a poor example.. I don't expect GMGM to trade a player of Taylor Hall's level a first line winger for a 2nd pairing defenseman. The Oilers drafting outside of the 1st round has been known to be awful, they over paid for players like Lucic and ect. Using one poor example doesn't mean that VGK shouldn't do it, especially since their in complete different situations, one starting from scratch doesn't really have no other choice. Otherwise what VGK can be like the Detroit Red Wings over the past few years just squeezing into the playoffs instead of rebuilding for what?

Maybe look at teams like Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington instead. All three of those teams sucked for years until they build through their draft picks and have been dominate since. I'm sure many will say they got lucky with their available players in the draft and what not, but it is worth taking a shot and relying on the teams staff to make the right moves. Even New Jersey Devils have turned it around with drafting and developing.

Seems much better than being a team that gets knocked out early in the playoffs or doesn't even make it by a few spots. And the "three year plan" doesn't necessarily mean that is when they will be ready, it's when GMGM thinks they will have a chance to go for it at the earliest. When the team can stop trading players for picks/prospects and looking to improve for the short term