Matt Duchene

[Avs71]

Does Duchene have troubles finding chemistry with linemates?

This has been stated infinite amount of times around here, and is thrown around like it is a cold hard fact. I'm curious to see the the percentage of people who actually think this is true.

Here are the forwards Duchene has spent the most amount of time with in his career, in order. With the goals for per 60 minutes when they player together, and the linemates goals for per 60 minutes away from Duchene.

Player| GF/60 With Duchene| GF/60 Without Duchene
Hejduk| 2.79| 2.06
O'Reilly| 2.85| 2.02
Parenteau| 2.97| 2.56
McGinn| 3.08| 2.00
Iginla|3.01|2.75
Stastny| 2.30| 2.51
Yip|3.22|1.55
Galiardi|2.29|2.00
Mueller| 2.37|2.15
Fleischmann| 2.74|2.49
McLeod| 3.09|1.70
Winnik|2.20|1.76
Stewart|2.60| 2.62
MacKinnon|2.24|3.01
Landeskog|2.56|2.70
Svatos|0.55|2.15
Porter|4.42|1.86
Olver|2.28|1.90

So every player scores more playing with Duchene than when they are away from him.

The only ones who don't are MacKinnon, Stastny, Landeskog (and Svatos). What do those 3(4) have in common? They are his most talented linemates, and were tried as his linemates in his worst seasons.

He would have been a winger with Stastny, so that could explain the drop.

Landeskog and MacKinnon would have been last season, so it's not surprising Duchene dragged them down. However, they have also played the least amount of time with compared to all the players on the list.

Going further down the list, it is amazing how much production jumped of other useless players.

In pretty much every case though, the players goals against shot up as well. I don't think Duchene has trouble finding chemistry. I think he needs wingers who let him have the puck (explains Landeskog and MacKinnon being worse). It's also pretty obvious he has had a pretty bad go of linemates in his time in Denver.

Since Duchene broke into the league, he ranks 38th overall in scoring, with identical production to Stastny in that same period.

-Is 26th in ES production since he came into the league.

Surprising that he is actually as productive as guys like Zetterberg, Backstrom, and Giroux at even strength. It's his ability on the power play that holds him back from being truly elite.

I think at this point Duchene is what he is. An incredibly talented center who makes those around him more productive, isn't that great defensively, average on the power play, and is prone to hot and cold streaks (even from season to season). Very valuable player, especially at 6 million. He is not a disappointment, and the Avs are very lucky to have him. Is he the franchise number 1 center his potential had him pegged at? No. Are the Avs going to be set up very nicely with MacKinnon and him as a 1-2? I'd say so. This trade Duchene crap needs to stop, because the Avs aren't going to get a better player than him without handing out more than 100 million in free agency, picking in the lottery and getting lucky, or some sort of miracle.

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[The Kingslayer]

Hes good just prone too make some horrendous choices with the puck still. Elite speed, superstar hands, Ryan Smyth caliber shot and Cory Cross hockey IQ. Also, very fragile mentally. This is what's holding him back from reaching his true potential imo. Hes still not that old yet. Maybe he will figure it out when hes 28-29 but as of now he's still hasnt improved much on a ton of things from when he was 18.

 

[agentblack]

I was watching the Kings-Yotes game and after his 40 something losses last someone suggested Mike Smith see a sports psychologist. He was extremely offended at first but finally decided to give it a go. He said it was nice to have someone to talk to about the game that had nothing to do with the his team. Independent of both his NHL and private life.

I think maybe Matt might do something like this one day. One thing both have in common. They try to do way too much for their teams partly because they believe they have to.

 

[Freudian]

I don't think any Duchene issue is related to chemistry. It's just that he at times get stuck in playing ineffective hockey where he doesn't read the play well and his decision making is off. That makes it look like his linemates aren't clicking with him but it's more him not clicking with him.

When he keeps it simple, use his speed, drive the net when he should and cycle/protect the puck when he should he's a really good player.

I tend not to get too up/down on Duchene. I've accepted his warts at this point.

 

[InjuredChoker]

it's not that surprising that scrubs score way better with duchene than with other scrubs. almost every guy that scored better with duchene either consistently played with worse linemate(s) than duchene when without him or he had good chemistry with those guys.

 

[The Kingslayer]

I was watching the Kings-Yotes game and after his 40 something losses last someone suggested Mike Smith see a sports psychologist. He was extremely offended at first but finally decided to give it a go. He said it was nice to have someone to talk to about the game that had nothing to do with the his team. Independent of both his NHL and private life.

I think maybe Matt might do something like this one day. One thing both have in common. They try to do way too much for their teams partly because they believe they have to.

Matt did see a sports shrink before the 13-14 season. Hes said so in many interviews. Maybe he decided he didnt need it after that season and quit it sure seems like it. He had a horrendous year last year by his standards and hes gotten off to one of the worse games I can recall him play ever. Perhaps Matty needs to go back to the shrink

 

[Shaggy88]

I think some people are forgetting just how dynamite Matt looked early last season when the rest of the team was horrendous. He was consistently used to attempt to spark the rest of the guys but there is only so much one person can do. That was easily some of the best hockey I'd ever seen from him. Add into that the prior year and I have to say there is a bit of overreaction permeating the board after Thursday concerning Matt. Yes, he had an extremely poor showing, I'm not trying to make excuses for him and he needs to be better. He's one of the biggest driving forces behind the team and it needs to be reflected on the ice. Just trying to say let's not limit ourselves to a short memory.

 

[agentblack]

Matt did see a sports shrink before the 13-14 season. Hes said so in many interviews. Maybe he decided he didnt need it after that season and quit it sure seems like it. He had a horrendous year last year by his standards and hes gotten off to one of the worse games I can recall him play ever. Perhaps Matty needs to go back to the shrink

Oh really, i didnt know that. Yeah if its something that he can do (and maybe he is still doing it I dont know) then he could benefit from it. Hopefully he didnt go for like a week and gave up on it or was like good im ok now thanks Dr Katz

 

[Avs71]

it's not that surprising that scrubs score way better with duchene than with other scrubs. almost every guy that scored better with duchene either consistently played with worse linemate(s) than duchene when without him or he had good chemistry with those guys.

Obviously, but McLeod's, Yip's, and McGinn's are some of Duchene's highest GF/60 as well.

As for the 2nd part, I'm not sure what you are trying to say, but it seems like you're trying to discount the improvement players have when playing with Duchene by saying that after Duchene they have worse linemates, which means in all likelihood, they aren't quality players who should be playing with Duchene in the first place. Because it's not like the Avs didn't have Stastny, O'Reilly, etc for those players to be playing with instead.

I don't think any Duchene issue is related to chemistry. It's just that he at times get stuck in playing ineffective hockey where he doesn't read the play well and his decision making is off. That makes it look like his linemates aren't clicking with him but it's more him not clicking with him.

When he keeps it simple, use his speed, drive the net when he should and cycle/protect the puck when he should he's a really good player.

I tend not to get too up/down on Duchene. I've accepted his warts at this point.

Precisely this. This can go for any player though. When John Mitchell plays good hockey, he is a tremendous player. When he reverts to bad habits, he becomes useless. The difference obviously is that when Duchene is playing poorly, he is a 55 point center. When he is playing very well, he is a point per game player.

Duchene seems to be viewed as some sort of enigma, but I think you just summed it up. He is an up/down player with warts. People just need to accept that and stop juggling him between being viewed as one of the best centres in the world, and being a bust. His career path is starting to look eerily similar to Stastny's. Darling child of the Avs, gets big contract, plateaus, portion of fan base sours on him. Hopefully this doesn't play out the same way because it is obvious that Stastny was a big loss to the team.

 

[Foppa2118]

Like most stats in hockey, these numbers are misleading.

It's not about whether a player plays better with or away from him in a vacuum, because the success his lines have is incredibly inconsistent, as is it's chemistry. If he's got good chemistry going, he's going to be playing a lot of minutes with someone, and that's gonna make those GF/60 numbers look pretty good.

The moment he stops having chemistry with someone, the line gets broken up, so he spends way less time with someone he doesn't have chemistry with, than he does. So when you combine that into one stat, the good chemistry time far outweighs the bad and skews the numbers.

That's the problem. It's not Duchene finding chemistry with someone as much as it is maintaining it. He's had great chemistry with PAP, Flash, Mueller, ROR, and Galiardi, and he's completely lost chemistry with all of them afterwards in following seasons. Looking like he should never play with them. They'd keep trying them for shifts here and there and the chemistry was just gone, so the time spent not working was far less than the time spent with good chemistry.

His up and down nature affects himself and his chemistry with his line, since he's straw that stirs the drink on his line, carrying the puck the vast majority of the time.

The last problem is his shooting accuracy is abysmal. This is just unacceptable for a player of his caliber. It's not a fluke either it goes back all the years we've seen him, and it continued through the pre-season, and in game 1 this year. He riffles the puck high and wide all the time.

I don't know if he's trying to shoot to hard, or too quick, or just isn't focusing hard enough on his target, but with his knowledge of stick curves especially, there should be no reason he can't find the net more often on all the glorious chances he makes for himself.

He also changes his playing style far too often, going from a guy who does his Forsberg impression planning to take it to the net and shoot himself, to a guy who's looking to pass.

He should be playing a quicker give and go game IMO, and looking to pass the majority of the time. That's how he finally found chemistry with Iggy late last year, and finally found chemistry with Hall at the Wolrds when he never had it before. with him. That quick give and go puck movement game is the game he played when he had his best success with ROR, Flash, and Hall, and the pure playmaking role is the one he played when he was at his best with Iggy and Mueller.

He gets away from that at some point in every season, and tries to do it all himself, which results in getting double teamed and killing the scoring chance. This leads to lost confidence since he's so hard on himself, and probably as a result poor shooting accuracy, and a frustration on how he thinks he should play. Meanwhile his linemates are just watching him and trying to figure how how the hell to help him, and make their line work.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I think some people are forgetting just how dynamite Matt looked early last season when the rest of the team was horrendous. He was consistently used to attempt to spark the rest of the guys but there is only so much one person can do. That was easily some of the best hockey I'd ever seen from him. Add into that the prior year and I have to say there is a bit of overreaction permeating the board after Thursday concerning Matt. Yes, he had an extremely poor showing, I'm not trying to make excuses for him and he needs to be better. He's one of the biggest driving forces behind the team and it needs to be reflected on the ice. Just trying to say let's not limit ourselves to a short memory.

Well said. I understand everyone's upset because the loss, but it's only one bad game. I think he will bounce back today! He always good vs stars

 

[InjuredChoker]

As for the 2nd part, I'm not sure what you are trying to say, but it seems like you're trying to discount the improvement players have when playing with Duchene by saying that after Duchene they have worse linemates, which means in all likelihood, they aren't quality players who should be playing with Duchene in the first place. Because it's not like the Avs didn't have Stastny, O'Reilly, etc for those players to be playing with instead.

no, not discounting at all. that clearly shows how duchene can elevate even bad players and/or perform well with bad players. they did play with stas, ROR and others but most mins were with other bad players.

 

[Avs71]

no, not discounting at all. that clearly shows how duchene can elevate even bad players and/or perform well with bad players. they did play with stas, ROR and others but most mins were with other bad players.

Oh, gotcha. I see what you're saying now.

It'll be interesting to see how Comeau works out with Duchene. By all accounts, he looks like a better version of McGinn, and like he will fit on that line really well. I have no doubt Duchene will bounce back, probably even tonight. Rantanen seems like he will be a good fit eventually for Duchene as well. Someone who makes quick smart passes, and doesn't hold the puck too long. Rantanen probably has the hockey IQ to play with Duchene as well. He seems like he would be one of the better players on the team at anticipating what Duchene will do. I doubt that will be given a try until one of Comeau/Iginla are injured.

 

[trip trancid]

Does Duchene have troubles finding chemistry with linemates?

This has been stated infinite amount of times around here, and is thrown around like it is a cold hard fact. I'm curious to see the the percentage of people who actually think this is true.

Here are the forwards Duchene has spent the most amount of time with in his career, in order. With the goals for per 60 minutes when they player together, and the linemates goals for per 60 minutes away from Duchene.

Player| GF/60 With Duchene| GF/60 Without Duchene
Hejduk| 2.79| 2.06
O'Reilly| 2.85| 2.02
Parenteau| 2.97| 2.56
McGinn| 3.08| 2.00
Iginla|3.01|2.75
Stastny| 2.30| 2.51
Yip|3.22|1.55
Galiardi|2.29|2.00
Mueller| 2.37|2.15
Fleischmann| 2.74|2.49
McLeod| 3.09|1.70
Winnik|2.20|1.76
Stewart|2.60| 2.62
MacKinnon|2.24|3.01
Landeskog|2.56|2.70
Svatos|0.55|2.15
Porter|4.42|1.86
Olver|2.28|1.90

So every player scores more playing with Duchene than when they are away from him.

The only ones who don't are MacKinnon, Stastny, Landeskog (and Svatos). What do those 3(4) have in common? They are his most talented linemates, and were tried as his linemates in his worst seasons.

He would have been a winger with Stastny, so that could explain the drop.

Landeskog and MacKinnon would have been last season, so it's not surprising Duchene dragged them down. However, they have also played the least amount of time with compared to all the players on the list.

Going further down the list, it is amazing how much production jumped of other useless players.

In pretty much every case though, the players goals against shot up as well. I don't think Duchene has trouble finding chemistry. I think he needs wingers who let him have the puck (explains Landeskog and MacKinnon being worse). It's also pretty obvious he has had a pretty bad go of linemates in his time in Denver.

Since Duchene broke into the league, he ranks 38th overall in scoring, with identical production to Stastny in that same period.

-Is 26th in ES production since he came into the league.

Surprising that he is actually as productive as guys like Zetterberg, Backstrom, and Giroux at even strength. It's his ability on the power play that holds him back from being truly elite.

I think at this point Duchene is what he is. An incredibly talented center who makes those around him more productive, isn't that great defensively, average on the power play, and is prone to hot and cold streaks (even from season to season). Very valuable player, especially at 6 million. He is not a disappointment, and the Avs are very lucky to have him. Is he the franchise number 1 center his potential had him pegged at? No. Are the Avs going to be set up very nicely with MacKinnon and him as a 1-2? I'd say so. This trade Duchene crap needs to stop, because the Avs aren't going to get a better player than him without handing out more than 100 million in free agency, picking in the lottery and getting lucky, or some sort of miracle.

Hey! Good analysis. They should put guys like McLeod on his left wing and keep MacKinnon and Landeskog away from him.

 

[agentblack]

oy vey

 

[CB Joe]

This seems more of an indication that these players play better with a talented player on their line as opposed to playing with scrubs.

 

[hughdreamz]

I feel the Duchene bashing has gotten a little out of hand after one bad game. He had great chemistry with ROR when ROR was playing LW. He has good chemistry with Iginla now and Comeu seems to be a good fit with him as well. But what do I know. It's only been ONE GAME.

 

[Avs71]

This seems more of an indication that these players play better with a talented player on their line as opposed to playing with scrubs.

Here. Probably the best comparable since they are the same age and were on the same team for their whole careers. Bolded are the ones where they scored more with O'Reilly than without him.

Player| GF/60 With O'Reilly| GF/60 Without O'Reilly
Hejduk| 1.82| 2.38
Duchene | 2.89| 2.68
Parenteau | 2.65| 2.60
McGinn | 2.72| 2.12
Iginla|2.27|2.78
Stastny| 1.72| 2.52
Yip|1.02|2.11
Galiardi |2.20|1.93
Mueller | 2.64|2.16
Fleischmann| -|-
McLeod| 1.63|1.85
Winnik|1.33|1.99
Stewart |4.41| 2.42
MacKinnon|2.47|2.81
Landeskog|2.41|2.98
Svatos|1.82|1.92
Porter |4.42|1.86
Olver |3.02|1.84

O'Reilly's order goes Landeskog, Duchene, McLeod, Winnik, MacKinnon, Hejduk, McGinn, Tanguay, Yip, PAP, Tucker

Yes, this isn't the perfect stat, but it's one of the only ones I could find that tracks scoring with linemates.

 

[tigervixxxen]

To the OP's question I can see it either way but I'd lean to yes. Duchene has a certain play style that requires certain players. They don't all have to be superstars but some consistency would be nice. As I've been trying to say in other threads, just because he needs to be massaged doesn't mean he's worthless. It's nice to have a more low maintenance consistent player like Landeskog but not everyone is going to be that way. The job of an organization and coaching staff is to figure out how to utilize their talent to get the most out of them. There seems to be such an impulse to categorize someone, either all good or bad. The game they had was fantastic or terrible. Either Duchene is an elite 1C or he should be traded. Either he's the problem on his line or he isn't. How about it's not all or nothing. I really do think MacKinnon will take that pressure off of him, he knows how to live in the spotlight, Roy seems ready to treat him like a top center. Will be the best thing ever to happen to Duchene. I'm willing to have some patience with him, it's not like he hasn't done some great things in his career already.

I think this is a pretty interesting visual of his season
http://hockeyviz.com/img/player/historyStrips/1415/COL/history-1415-COL-duchema91.png

 

[ghostofweezman]

but as of now he's still hasnt improved much on a ton of things from when he was 18.

Sorry for sniping Kingslayer, but this right here is what worries me about him. The lack of improvement.

 

[ABasin]

No.

I believe if Duchene fixed but *one* problem in his game (a problem he's had since his rookie year), he'd be a point-per-game player every single year. That problem being shot accuracy from under 30 feet out.

 

[dahrougem2]

No.

I believe if Duchene fixed but *one* problem in his game (a problem he's had since his rookie year), he'd be a point-per-game player every single year. That problem being shot accuracy from under 30 feet out.

And shot selection. He really needs to find a way to hit the net. It's becoming more frustrating than McPing

 

[LieutenantDangle]

I love the overreaction from everybody. Matty ice is a capable 1st line center who might be a hair weak in his own zone. Reacting to one game is like reacting to a pitcher having a poor inning. It's just way too small of a sample size to make generalizations over.

However, tonight should be a better indication of where he's at mentally. He's got a ridiculous stat line playing against the stars and I expect that to continue

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I think they should waive him...

 

[jrmysell]

I think part of the conceived lack of chemistry is just a lack of time playing with linemates. Here are comparisons between him and MacK.

Duchene (6 seasons) - 420 games (5953 minutes on ice):
Most ice time with (excluding G and D): M. Hedjuk (1439 min), ROR (1101 min), J. McGinn (864 min)

MacKinnon (2 seasons) - 147 games (2020 minutes on ice):
Most ice time with (excluding G and D): Landy (1071 min), ROR (655 min), Duchene (353 min)

MacK in approximately 1/3 of TOI/Games/seasons. So you would expect his linemates to be about 1/3 of the time of Duchene's linemates. But they aren't. Duchene's highest TOI winger had about 1/4 of Duchene's playing time. MacKinnon's is over 50%. I know Hedjuk was old, so that could be why he was replaced, but they give Duchene at most about 3 games with his linemates, say they don't work and switch them. He still was almost a PPG 2 separate seasons with revolving doors on his wings. Maybe if he got to play with 1 or 2 players consistently over a full season he could develop some chemsitry. It's like a QB to his recievers in football. A rookie QB or a rookie WR won't play great together for most of their first season, but 2-3 seasons down the road, they look really good together.

This is why if we think Rantanen is going to be Duchene's RW of the future, they should put them together right now. Let them go through their growing pains now, instead of down the road when we are still trying 2-3 games and switch Duchene's wings.