Mathew Barzal vs. Auston Matthews (Read the OP)

[LordNeverLose]

By how much?

How much would it take for him to be better?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Math Barzal's about to find out the hard way what it's like being the sole elite center on the team with the main focus from opposition and a defense-first coach in Trotz forcing him to play the right way. Just like Matthews did.

Problem?

So you think Matthews will score in the 95-100 point range?

I didn't think my original question was that difficult to answer. It was essentially a yes or no response since chances are Barzal's going to be somewhere in the 75+ point range.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

So if Barzal outproduces Matthews again next season while playing 1C for Trotz, will you say he's better than Matthews?

Why exactly are you judging the overall game of players based on points? Points are completely meaningless when your team is going nowhere. Congrats, Barzal will put up a bunch of completely meaningless points next season. Doesn't change the probable outcome of the Isles being a bad team for a very long time. HF punishes depth. Matthews won't get close to the minutes or PP time Barzal will, because the end goal isn't to put up points. It is to win a cup.

 

[Notsince67]

So if Barzal outproduces Matthews again next season while playing 1C for Trotz, will you say he's better than Matthews?

If I replaced my Y chromosome with an X, I'd be my brothers sister

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Matthew's rookie year was like 20 points better then McDavids Rookie year. Hell even Eichel outscored McDavid in his rookie year....Why was that? .
Now do you see how silly your statement is when you purposely leave out injury and games played.

It took Barzal his 5th game to get his first pt. He had 85 points in his last 77 games. I don't want to use projection as you are in trying to make Matthews look like a better points producer. So let's use actual production. Barzal in his first full season 85 points, Matthews in his full season 69 pts. Barzal has out points produced Matthews by every metric in their career and this is only year one. So yes, Barzal IMO will be the better points producer in a 10 year sample. 1-0 Barzal right now, playmaking is a big part of points production, all the best points producing Centers were elite in this. Barzal is by far the better playmaker. Matthews doesn't even have 63 assists in his career that Barzal got in 1 season.

 

[TDK67]

One thing no one seems to be mentioning--Barzal is older and more developed. Matthews while younger and in his D+2 had an almost identical PPG to an older Barzal in his D+3. Matthews clearly has more room for growth so the smart money would be on him.

That said, Babcock doesn't like to give his stars the typical minutes other stars get so that might be the only thing holding him back.

 

[Signupnow]

Math Barzal's about to find out the hard way what it's like being the sole elite center on the team with the main focus from opposition and a defense-first coach in Trotz forcing him to play the right way. Just like Matthews did.

Problem?

I have been told that jack has benefited from playing with bad players from your fellow leaf fans. Strange how things work now that poor mathews has been suffering for the very same reason.

 

[IPS]

I have been told that jack has benefited from playing with bad players from your fellow leaf fans. Strange how things work now that poor mathews has been suffering for the very same reason.

Who in god's name said Jack benefitted from playing with bad players?

Jack benefits from loads of ice time and the most PP time in the league. That's what I read.

But this thread isn't about Eichel, so please stay on topic.

 

[bionic]

It took Barzal his 5th game to get his first pt. He had 85 points in his last 77 games. I don't want to use projection as you are in trying to make Matthews look like a better points producer. So let's use actual production. Barzal in his first full season 85 points, Matthews in his full season 69 pts. Barzal has out points produced Matthews by every metric in their career and this is only year one. So yes, Barzal IMO will be the better points producer in a 10 year sample. 1-0 Barzal right now, playmaking is a big part of points production, all the best points producing Centers were elite in this. Barzal is by far the better playmaker. Matthews doesn't even have 63 assists in his career that Barzal got in 1 season.

Barzal will also have to score over 50 goals next year to match what Matthews has done in less then two seasons played. All while playing on a Babcock system that gives him less min and is focused on defence first. Matthews is not only a better goal scorer then Barzal he is on a different stratosphere then him. ListenLi think Barazl is an elite player but let's wait and see how Barzal reacts to tougher min and more focus on defense. Something Matthews has already been doing.

 

[Holymakinaw]

I think Barzal is a fantastic young player. I'm only picking Matthews because of the serious talent on the NEXT line that other teams will have to put their best players out to try and shut down. Matthews should seriously benefit from Tavares' arrival.

 

[Pyrophorus]

So Matthews will score somewhere in the 95-100 point range this year?

or Barzal can decline in his totals.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

So Matthews will score somewhere in the 95-100 point range this year?

Pretty sure that same poster predicted Matthews would beat McDavid in points this year.

 

[McJazz]

Matthews easily.

Lol how can you say easily? Barzal just put up 84 points. Do you think Matthews is going to surpass that easily or do you feel certain that Barzal will regress substantially?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

or Barzal can decline in his totals.

I took that into account. He scored 85 points this year, so even if he declines to 75 points (a 10 point drop) that would still require Matthews to be in the 90-95 point range to fulfill the "he'll outscore Barzal by 15 to 20 points" comment.

Unless you think Barzal will regress to like 60 or so points. In which case, I think the discussion becomes less about being realistic with your prediction and more about downplaying the other team's player to prop up your own.

 

[BM14]

I think Barzal is a fantastic young player. I'm only picking Matthews because of the serious talent on the NEXT line that other teams will have to put their best players out to try and shut down. Matthews should seriously benefit from Tavares' arrival.

Kind of like how Barzal did....lol

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Barzal will also have to score over 50 goals next year to match what Matthews has done in less then two seasons played. All while playing on a Babcock system that gives him less min and is focused on defence first. Matthews is not only a better goal scorer then Barzal he is on a different stratosphere then him. ListenLi think Barazl is an elite player but let's wait and see how Barzal reacts to tougher min and more focus on defense. Something Matthews has already been doing.

Barzal played less mins per game than Matthews did. And he played against top D units and tougher competition as he was by far the most dangerous ES threat on the Islanders last season. You don't watch many Isles games obviously, nor are you accurate with TOI between the 2 players.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I took that into account. He scored 85 points this year, so even if he declines to 75 points (a 10 point drop) that would still require Matthews to be in the 90-95 point range to fulfill the "he'll outscore Barzal by 15 to 20 points" comment.

Unless you think Barzal will regress to like 60 or so points. In which case, I think the discussion becomes less about being realistic with your prediction and more about downplaying the other team's player to prop up your own.

I think you are charitable here. Barzal is a proven 85 pt Center. No one can change history. Once you have done it, it is done. Just the same as once you are a 100 pt player, when McDavid hit that mark 2 seasons a go, he is a proven 100 pt player in the NHL. For someone saying Matthews is going to outscore Barzal by 15-20 pts tells me they think Matthews is a 100-105pt player. That would be something, his playmaking will have to pick up to hit 100 pts. I can't see any player scoring 65 goals in today's hockey if he has 35 assists in 1 season.

 

[TDK67]

"Barzal played against Top D and tougher competition"...than who? Tavares or Matthews? Either would be false. It takes all of 2 mins to look this up and avoid spewing lies.

Matthews
Tavares
Barzal

 

[Holymakinaw]

And he played against top D units and tougher competition

LMAO. This is 100% wrong.

 

[bionic]

Barzal played less mins per game than Matthews did. And he played against top D units and tougher competition as he was by far the most dangerous ES threat on the Islanders last season. You don't watch many Isles games obviously, nor are you accurate with TOI between the 2 players.

When did I say he played less min then Barzal. Their min are virtually the the Same. I said Matthews plays in a system that gives him fewer min and and more focus on defence. Add the fact that Matthews was the first choice other teams focused on to defend. With added PP min and teams having to choose who to defend against will give Matthews a better opportunity to increase his secondary assist.
Also maybe it's you that needs to watch Islanders games. Tavaras played the tougher mins.

 

[major major]

Matthews got a full minute less on the PP last year and nearly equaled Barzal's production.

That didn't happen. Barzal had about 4/3 the ice time (because of Matthews' injury), and ended up with 4/3 the points. They had virtually the same scoring rate on the PP, and at even strength.

Barzal faced quality of competition in the 64th percentile, Matthews in the 96th percentile. With Barzal having to go up against top lines, and Matthews lowering his QoC with the addition of Tavares, I don't see how Matthews doesn't outscore Barzal assuming full health.

The differences in QoC between those two percentiles is vanishingly small. They usually play the same kind of player.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Could go either way but then again there's a decent chance Matthews misses time.

 

[Panthaz89]

Matthews will score more than Barzal assuming they both play all 82.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

When did I say he played less min then Barzal. Their min are virtually the the Same. I said Matthews plays in a system that gives him fewer min and and more focus on defence. Add the fact that Matthews was the first choice other teams focused on to defend. With added PP min and teams having to choose who to defend against will give Matthews a better opportunity to increase his secondary assist.
Also maybe it's you that needs to watch Islanders games. Tavaras played the tougher mins.

Last season.
Matthews 18:08 TOI/GP
Barzal 17:46 TOI/GP

Also it is arguable that Matthews played in a tight defensive system in his rookie year. Leafs were trading chances pretty frequently. Were they not the 22nd team in GA. Would have been worse if they had the Isles goaltending last season.

I will maintain I watched a lot more Isles games than you did. By the second half of the season. Teams were focusing on Barzal more than Tavares at ES by seasons end.

Barzal's underlying numbers, blow some of the centers ranked above him out of the water.

-Rel Corsi. ES 6.83. #1 and Best on the NHL Network's list of top 20 Centers.
-Bergeron is the next closest Center at #2 on the NHL network's list at 4.86
-Tavares ranked #10 on the NHL's list, a former teammate of Barzal came in at 1.53 for comparison.

Assists. A vital part of the top Center's portfolio as this measures how they impact wingers and players around them.
-Barzal 63 assists. 2nd to arguably only the best center in the game McDavid.
Even strength production.
-Even strength points 3rd on the list to only McDavid and Mackinnon.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

"Barzal played against Top D and tougher competition"...than who? Tavares or Matthews? Either would be false. It takes all of 2 mins to look this up and avoid spewing lies.

Matthews
Tavares
Barzal

Dude has resorted to blatant lying...I posted the QoC stats maybe 5 posts earlier, so somehow the numbers are all wrong and because TheWinterSoldier says so Barzal magically played harder competition than he actually did? As he just said "you can't change what happened", well Barzal faced 64th percentile QoC but apparently according to him/her it's false just cuz.