Blue Jays Discussion: Martin, Donaldson .. What Else Is Up Your Sleeve AA? (hint: it's Saunders)

[BertCorbeau]

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[Eyedea]

*lefty bat at either LF or 2B that we never thought was available*

 

[weems]

*lefty bat at either LF or 2B that we never thought was available*

Did AA say this?

 

[landy92mack29]

*lefty bat at either LF or 2B that we never thought was available*

so altuve+trout

 

[p.l.f.]

Trading Navarro should be next

 

[Eyedea]

Did AA say this?

According to Scion,

The Sports Room @TSRamadan
AA on PTS: "We are trying on all areas: pen, 2B, LF... Hope is that the guys we acquire are the ones you don't hear about"

I'm just assuming handedness will play a part just because the team is so right handed heavy.

 

[weems]

Jason Kipnis?

 

[zeke]

Can you post stats please?

sure.

fangraphs......

last year

Cabrera: 139gms, .809ops, 125wrc+, -12.6def
Markakis: 155gms, .728ops, 106wrc+, -2.5def

last 2yrs

Cabrera: 227gms, .761ops, 110wrc+, -23.6def
Markakis: 315gms, .706ops, 97wrc+, -16.6def

last 3yrs

Cabrera: 340gms, .810ops, 124wrc+, -29.4def
Markakis: 419gms, .738ops, 104wrc+, -30.3def

last 4yrs

Cabrera: 495gms, .809ops, 122wrc+, -34.6def
Markakis: 579gns, .744ops, 105wrc+, -42.9def



markakis comes out looking comparable the last two years, but that's thanks to a tumor-bad offensive season for melky plus the first not-horrific defensive rating of markakis careef last year at age 30.

imo, the numbers are pretty clear - melky is a consistent impact bat with always awful D, while markakis is a mediocre bat with always awful D....up until last year when his defensive rating suddenly changed. if you buy that markakis suddenly drastically improved defensiveky last year at age 30, then sure they're comparable......but if that defensive rating last year was the fluke that it looks like, then he's a pretty big downgrade from melky seems to me.

 

[Eyedea]

so altuve+trout

Did you just name two righties on purpose?

We clearly have no use for either because they are both not lefties.

 

[The Nemesis]

because I didn't realize I was posting in a closed thread, my last response from the previous Jays discussion, re: Markakis -

It's fairly hard to predict starting pitching consistently. Performance-wise, I think it is fair to predict regression.



Those numbers are most definitely not 'average'.

Maybe not worth 13+ million, but a lot of teams, including the Jays, would be happy with that production.

career wRC+ of 112. Last 5 seasons he's been 116/105/126/88/106.

1-2 WAR a year isn't "average" in the context of all MLB OFs, but it is for starters. Since his 2nd/3rd year he hasn't been above 2.5, which is in the range of role player to solid starter.

Again, it comes down to the fact that you have to look at what Markakis brings to the table? He doesn't hit for an abnormally high average, he doesn't have power to speak of, he doesn't have speed worth mentioning, his defence is surprisingly underwhelming. The biggest thing you can say about Markakis is that he doesn't suck. If we're filling a hole in LF, I'd rather find someone that brings at least one remarkable tool to the table. Like Melky with his hit tool or someone with power or speed. at $13m or more a season, I'd want a guy that's better than a bunch of C+s across the board.

We might as well platoon Dirks and, I dunno, Mayberry in LF and get output approaching Markakis' for a fraction of the price.

 

[Nasty Nazem]

Fangraphs rates Markakis defense good in 2014 but it's been pretty bad the prior 3-4 years. Baseball reference thinks he sucks at defense every year. Seems like his power is gone too as his ISO the last two years is career lows. He still hits for average and takes walks but I don't think he is a guy you want to pay 12M or so going forward.

 

[Eyedea]

How nasty would Christian Yelich be on this team. It's a shame he's on the Marlins because it'll probably be another three years until he finally becomes available.

 

[zeke]

Fangraphs rates Markakis defense good in 2014 but it's been pretty bad the prior 3-4 years. Baseball reference thinks he sucks at defense every year. Seems like his power is gone too as his ISO the last two years is career lows. He still hits for average and takes walks but I don't think he is a guy you want to pay 12M or so going forward.

yeah, the fact that b/r agreed with fg on his D every year, and that only FG showed that big bump last year, likely proves that bump was just a fluke sample.

most likely you're getting melky-calibre D, but with 80pts lower ops.

 

[Eyedea]

Doubtful considering he had the worst rPM among qualified left fielders.

 

[Scion]

Fangraphs rates Markakis defense good in 2014 but it's been pretty bad the prior 3-4 years. Baseball reference thinks he sucks at defense every year. Seems like his power is gone too as his ISO the last two years is career lows. He still hits for average and takes walks but I don't think he is a guy you want to pay 12M or so going forward.

I like Markakis too, but: DRS, UZR and RngR unanimously rate Markakis as a bad defensive RF over the last three seasons (which is the ideal sample size when judging defensive metrics). The only area where Markakis ranks as above average is the ARM metric which is far less useful in LF than RF.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=1500&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=25,d

 

[Puckstuff]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-thing-about-josh-donaldsons-defense/

This summarizes Donaldson's defence at 3B, now and the future. Good read, those guys do a good job.

 

[Vesa Awesaka]

Dont get why people think Lawrie was a major clubhouse problem. I actually think Bautista, EE and maybe Reyes are a bit immature for their ages. Heck isnt their a twitter time line of Bautista and EE twitting Reyes well their in Los Angelas well Reyes is injured to come out and party? Plus Bautista is notorious for having dumb tweets. This is just one thing, i understand i maybe over blowing it but my cousins one who lives Toronto and one who is a huge Jays fan always have funny stories or rumors to share about Jays players when i ask them at family get together.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Davidi is making it sound like there's limited money left and AA has said he's going to spread it around. So, I can't see us realistically getting Melky back. The best cheap options at this point are Aoki and Lowrie. I'd be pretty happy if we snagged both, both make far too much sense for this ball club. Fill in the pen through trades. I'm sure Navarro and Dickey/Buehrle could get us a few nice pen arms, assuming we eat some of Buehrles contract.

 

[King Mapes]

I think you guys exaggerated Lawries comments. The guy has talked about how upset he was on the weekend, left very positive messages for the fans. He's just saying he's never been to the playoffs, which is true. Though Oakland will be hard pressed to make it without Donaldson.

 

[LaCarriere]

I think you guys exaggerated Lawries comments. The guy has talked about how upset he was on the weekend, left very positive messages for the fans. He's just saying he's never been to the playoffs, which is true. Though Oakland will be hard pressed to make it without Donaldson.

I think he's just trying to say the right things to both Jays and A's fans.

First reaction was disapointment and shock. I don't think anyone thought Lawrie would be trade bait going into the off season. I didn't. He's disapointed that if the Jays make a few more moves and are a playoff contender, he won't be part of it. Canadian born player just traded from his favourite team, and only Canadian MLB team.

Second reaction is probably to sell himself to A's fans -- happy to play on grass, should help his body (even if playing on turf didn't contribute to past injuries, etc). Happy to be on a team that was in the postseason (even though just 1 game), etc.

 

[Woodman19]

All this fuss being made about the being part of a winner statement that the statement he made about being excited to join a team with leaders who take charge goes under the radar. That is the one everyone should be focused on (even if you don't believe in that stuff)

 

[613Leafer]

Davidi is making it sound like there's limited money left and AA has said he's going to spread it around. So, I can't see us realistically getting Melky back. The best cheap options at this point are Aoki and Lowrie. I'd be pretty happy if we snagged both, both make far too much sense for this ball club. Fill in the pen through trades. I'm sure Navarro and Dickey/Buehrle could get us a few nice pen arms, assuming we eat some of Buehrles contract.

Yep, I'd definitely be looking at moves like those. Aoki + Lowrie would come out to under 20M, then Navarro + Happ can be moved for pen help.

You address three needs and only end up increasing payroll by ~10-15M.

It would settle the entire roster, with the only remaining question mark being starting pitching. Which is a pretty big question mark. 2-3 youngsters + two aging guys. Zero stud proven guys in their primes.

 

[WordsOfWisdumb*]

Trading Navarro should be next

And hopefully the next shoe to drop will be the announcement of a veteran #1 starter on the Jays for 2015.

 

[Al14]

And hopefully the next shoe to drop will be the announcement of a veteran #1 starter on the Jays for 2015.

Does it really have to be a vet? Can't it be an up and coming #1 starter?

 

[weems]

sure.

fangraphs......

last year

Cabrera: 139gms, .809ops, 125wrc+, -12.6def
Markakis: 155gms, .728ops, 106wrc+, -2.5def

last 2yrs

Cabrera: 227gms, .761ops, 110wrc+, -23.6def
Markakis: 315gms, .706ops, 97wrc+, -16.6def

last 3yrs

Cabrera: 340gms, .810ops, 124wrc+, -29.4def
Markakis: 419gms, .738ops, 104wrc+, -30.3def

last 4yrs

Cabrera: 495gms, .809ops, 122wrc+, -34.6def
Markakis: 579gns, .744ops, 105wrc+, -42.9def



markakis comes out looking comparable the last two years, but that's thanks to a tumor-bad offensive season for melky plus the first not-horrific defensive rating of markakis careef last year at age 30.

imo, the numbers are pretty clear - melky is a consistent impact bat with always awful D, while markakis is a mediocre bat with always awful D....up until last year when his defensive rating suddenly changed. if you buy that markakis suddenly drastically improved defensiveky last year at age 30, then sure they're comparable......but if that defensive rating last year was the fluke that it looks like, then he's a pretty big downgrade from melky seems to me.

You're also comparing a LF'er to a RF'er.

Right field is the more difficult defensive position.