Marner's next contract

[Kudo Shinichi]

Over or under 9.5 mil?

Currently on pace for over 100 pts
Has 7 more pts than Tavares who got paid 11 million by the leafs last summer

Assume he signs an 8 year deal.

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[McDavidCrushedLarkin]

12-13 range

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

9.5 8 years

 

[Leafs at Knight]

Wow not very often do you see 100% of a vote completely wrong, HF does it again.

16-0 at the time.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Wow not very often do you see 100% of a vote completely wrong, HF does it again.

I'm literally the 1 vote for under lol.

 

[bobholly39]

Easy over

Imo Leafs offer 9 and Marner asks for 10-11. 9.5 is the minimum they settle for. I think ~10 is more likely.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Over or under 9.5 mil?

Currently on pace for over 100 pts
Has 7 more pts than Tavares who got paid 11 million by the leafs last summer

Assume he signs an 8 year deal.

$9M/

I don't see a world where he is paid more than Kucherov.

 

[Spirit of 67]

I'm literally the 1 vote for under lol.

There's more of us now.

 

[LeafFever]

Over or under 9.5 mil?

Currently on pace for over 100 pts
Has 7 more pts than Tavares who got paid 11 million by the leafs last summer

Assume he signs an 8 year deal.

Tavares was UFA. Why compare the two? If he outscores Tavares, that does not mean he'll get more than 11 million.

 

[Randy Randerson]

There's only been one 100pt winger sign recently who was selling one RFA year and seven UFA years to Marner's four RFA years and (probably) four UFA years, meaning that Marner is sacrificing less of his open market time than his counterpart in this comparison and should have a lower AAV with all other variables held constant. The contract for that player takes effect the same year that Marner's new one will so there shouldn't be a need to adjust for cap inflation. That player got $9.5M on the nose, it's really hard to see how Marner gets that or more by a comparables approach, I'm guessing $8.5-9M is where it lands

 

[LeafFever]

There's only been one 100pt winger sign recently who was selling one RFA year and seven UFA years to Marner's four RFA years and (probably) four UFA years, meaning that Marner is sacrificing less of his open market time than his counterpart in this comparison and should have a lower AAV with all other variables held constant. The contract for that player takes effect the same year that Marner's new one will so there shouldn't be a need to adjust for cap inflation. That player got $9.5M on the nose, it's really hard to see how Marner gets that or more by a comparables approach, I'm guessing $8.5-9M is where it lands

And just to cut-off the lazy Florida tax argument (No one thought Kucherov getting 9.5 was any steal last year), the Leafs ability to add sgining bonuses give them a bigger advantage than Tampa has now.

Leafs can litterally place 20 million in Marner's bank account the day he signs a deal. He saves a ton of taxes and makes so much more on interest.

I read these posts Marner will get 13 million per and laugh.

 

[Randy Randerson]

And just to cut-off the lazy Florida tax argument (No one thought Kucherov getting 9.5 was any steal last year), the Leafs ability to add sgining bonuses give them a bigger advantage than Tampa has now.

Leafs can litterally place 20 million in Marner's bank account the day he signs a deal. He saves a ton of taxes and makes so much more on interest.

I read these posts Marner will get 13 million per and laugh.

ya agreed, the Stamkos signing was surprisingly low but I think the general reaction to the Kucherov signing was that he did really well, on the high side of fair type of thing

There's one winger in the league that makes more than $10M and he was a UFA when he signed his deal which is leverage that Marner doesn't have, adjusting that for inflation is still less than $13M.

 

[ccman68]

Dubas paid 7 million for a 60 point player. He will give Marner 11.

 

[Dache]

There's only been one 100pt winger sign recently who was selling one RFA year and seven UFA years to Marner's four RFA years and (probably) four UFA years, meaning that Marner is sacrificing less of his open market time than his counterpart in this comparison and should have a lower AAV with all other variables held constant. The contract for that player takes effect the same year that Marner's new one will so there shouldn't be a need to adjust for cap inflation. That player got $9.5M on the nose, it's really hard to see how Marner gets that or more by a comparables approach, I'm guessing $8.5-9M is where it lands

You can make the argument about the cap and cap expectations when the contract was signed, not necessarily when it kicks in.

 

[LeafFever]

Dubas paid 7 million for a 60 point player. He will give Marner 11.

No. And Nylander hasn't peaked FYI.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You can make the argument about the cap and cap expectations when the contract was signed, not necessarily when it kicks in.

that argument would have to be predicated on the idea that the player's agent doesn't get the concept of cap inflation unless that cap inflation was surprisingly higher than normal, which it's not expected to be this coming year

Dubas paid 7 million for a 60 point player. He will give Marner 11.[/QUOTE
Nylander got a comparable % of cap to players in his tier - Ehlers, Pastrnak - he's especially close to Pastrnak, who he was slightly ahead of in career production per game at the time of signing compared to Pastrnak when he signed (a contract that he's considerably outperforming)

Can you make a realistic argument that Marner is substantially better than Kucherov? That's what $11M/yr is

 

[Dache]

And just to cut-off the lazy Florida tax argument (No one thought Kucherov getting 9.5 was any steal last year), the Leafs ability to add sgining bonuses give them a bigger advantage than Tampa has now.

Leafs can litterally place 20 million in Marner's bank account the day he signs a deal. He saves a ton of taxes and makes so much more on interest.

I read these posts Marner will get 13 million per and laugh.

Bonuses aren’t tax free, the biggest savings for players due to them are players that are residents in low tax areas of the US

 

[ccman68]

No. And Nylander hasn't peaked FYI.

I think Nylander has peaked tbh. A lot of forwards nowadays reach their peak pretty damn quickly. I just can't ever see Nylander carrying a line, he is always going to be just a complimentary winger. I guess Matthews could carry him to like 70 points maybe.

 

[Dache]

that argument would have to be predicated on the idea that the player's agent doesn't get the concept of cap inflation unless that cap inflation was surprisingly higher than normal, which it's not expected to be this coming year

Players that sign long term contracts very rarely have cap inflation factored in for the length of the contract. Most contracts for young upcoming players end up a steal towards the end of the players trajectory stays as expected.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Players that sign long term contracts very rarely have cap inflation factored in for the length of the contract. Most contracts for young upcoming players end up a steal towards the end of the players trajectory stays as expected.

the CBA cap model doesn't allow for a scaling AAV model to match inflation, it's a straight line, which is why players get a smaller percentage of cap as the contract progresses in an inflating cap scenario. Of course inflation is considered in the real dollars, and especially in the first year which is what you're talking about here. You're saying that player agents are absolute morons if you think otherwise, this is economics and a considerably less complicated environment than the real world

 

[LeafFever]

I think Nylander has peaked tbh. A lot of forwards nowadays reach their peak pretty damn quickly. I just can't ever see Nylander carrying a line, he is always going to be just a complimentary winger. I guess Matthews could carry him to like 70 points maybe.

Based on what? He had e/s 49 points alone last season with little PP time. He's a first line winger. He can get 70+ points yearly without a doubt.

 

[ccman68]

Based on what? He had e/s 49 points alone last season with little PP time. He's a first line winger. He can get 70+ points yearly without a doubt.

Based on similar players I guess. Look at Eberle.

 

[LeafFever]

Bonuses aren’t tax free, the biggest savings for players due to them are players that are residents in low tax areas of the US

They are taxed differently, They are taxed 100% based on where you reside. however. And getting 15-20 million in the 1st day of your contract does give you a ton of interest.

 

[LeafFever]

Based on similar players I guess. Look at Eberle.

I do not agree. He's had 2 seasons (Full) and had 61 points with limited usage. How many guys on other teams are considred to have peaked by age 21?
Are you aware his #'s are better than Pastyrnak's when he signed his deal?

 

[Dache]

the CBA cap model doesn't allow for a scaling AAV model to match inflation, it's a straight line, which is why players get a smaller percentage of cap as the contract progresses in an inflating cap scenario. Of course inflation is considered in the real dollars, and especially in the first year which is what you're talking about here. You're saying that player agents are absolute morons if you think otherwise, this is economics and a considerably less complicated environment than the real world

Exactly. So according to you and using future cap inflation in agents arguments most contracts of young players should be a bad deal the first few years, then fair, then a steal at the end as a player reaches their peak. Correct?