I’m sure this will be very polarizing, but I think it could make some sense. Straight swap of Mitch Marner for Brady Tkachuk. Disclaimer: I’m a Leafs fan.
Why for the Leafs?
Cap space. Pre-COVID, with the expectation of an ever-rising cap, it looked like we could keep all of Matthews/Marner/JT/Marner, and still just barely put a decent team around them. Now, I’m not so sure. With the cap likey fixed at $81.5 mil for a number of years, that means we’re paying ~$40.5 mil for 4 forwards, and need to fit everyone else into ~$41 mil. I don’t think we can field a cup contender this way - even if we deal Johnsson and Dermott, we’d only have ~$2.5 mil to find a partner for Rielly. We’d never deal Matthews, JT has a NMC, and Nylander’s AAV isn’t that high, so that leaves Marner as the top candidate.
Marner is much better than Tkachuk, but Tkachuk is way cheaper, and also brings some needed toughness. He’s on a super cheap rookie deal next year, then an RFA. Even if he makes ~$7.5 mil as an RFA, that’s still ~$3.5 mil less than Marner, which makes a big difference. That’s enough for us to afford a good partner for Rielly (~$6 mil) instead of a bargain basement one (~$2.5 mil). And next year, on Tkachuk’s final ELC year, our team could be legit stacked.
Why for the Sens?
The Sens have mountains of cap space, and what better way to leverage it than picking up a young, legit franchise forward? It’s a lot of extra cap eaten next year, on Tkachuk’s final ELC year, but once Tkachuk becomes an RFA, the difference is likely more like ~$3.5 mil. For a borderline superstar like Marner, and the Sens nowhere close to a cap crunch, that’s easily worth it. After the draft the Sens could be building around something like Marner/Byfield/Chabot/Drysdale, which obviously looks great. You almost never get the chance to trade for a young stud like Marner, this could take their core to the next level.
Also, Melnyk will love that Marner is cheap in real money. If dealt after his signing bonus is paid this offseason, that’s $30.3 mil of his $65.3 mil contract paid, with 5 of 6 years remaining. He averages just $7 mil per year for those remaining 5 years.
Why for the Leafs?
Cap space. Pre-COVID, with the expectation of an ever-rising cap, it looked like we could keep all of Matthews/Marner/JT/Marner, and still just barely put a decent team around them. Now, I’m not so sure. With the cap likey fixed at $81.5 mil for a number of years, that means we’re paying ~$40.5 mil for 4 forwards, and need to fit everyone else into ~$41 mil. I don’t think we can field a cup contender this way - even if we deal Johnsson and Dermott, we’d only have ~$2.5 mil to find a partner for Rielly. We’d never deal Matthews, JT has a NMC, and Nylander’s AAV isn’t that high, so that leaves Marner as the top candidate.
Marner is much better than Tkachuk, but Tkachuk is way cheaper, and also brings some needed toughness. He’s on a super cheap rookie deal next year, then an RFA. Even if he makes ~$7.5 mil as an RFA, that’s still ~$3.5 mil less than Marner, which makes a big difference. That’s enough for us to afford a good partner for Rielly (~$6 mil) instead of a bargain basement one (~$2.5 mil). And next year, on Tkachuk’s final ELC year, our team could be legit stacked.
Why for the Sens?
The Sens have mountains of cap space, and what better way to leverage it than picking up a young, legit franchise forward? It’s a lot of extra cap eaten next year, on Tkachuk’s final ELC year, but once Tkachuk becomes an RFA, the difference is likely more like ~$3.5 mil. For a borderline superstar like Marner, and the Sens nowhere close to a cap crunch, that’s easily worth it. After the draft the Sens could be building around something like Marner/Byfield/Chabot/Drysdale, which obviously looks great. You almost never get the chance to trade for a young stud like Marner, this could take their core to the next level.
Also, Melnyk will love that Marner is cheap in real money. If dealt after his signing bonus is paid this offseason, that’s $30.3 mil of his $65.3 mil contract paid, with 5 of 6 years remaining. He averages just $7 mil per year for those remaining 5 years.
Last edited:
Really?
