Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread

[uncleben]

All things Marlies, Growlers, player development, and prospects

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[ottomaddox]

Anyone here buying tickets for The Marlies?

I can't seem to find any info. Perhaps it's far too early.

 

[Duke16]

Niche, but two more AHL deals I'd love to bring in are forwards Henry Rybinski and Greg Meireles (I don't know if he got two years - info hard to find).

I think Rybinski has legit bottom six upside. Meireles has been a favourite of mine since his Kitchener days - non-stop motor. I don't think it's completely unrealistic that he makes it as a depth spark plug, and he's skilled enough to potentially run with that role.

 

[Morgs]

I think the two prospects I'm most interested in this season to dive deeper into is Amirov & Niemela. I was a huge fan of Amirov pre-draft and he showed after with fantastic play for a 19 year old in the 2nd best league in the world. The only thing he was lacking was ice-time to show what he really had. The fact the Leafs left him in Russia even after he signed an ELC gives me Nylander vibes in that if they don't like how the season is going or his usage they have the ability to take him away. A team like Salavat does not have the luxury to slow play a player of his caliber like SKA did with Podkolzin so his ice time should revert back to when his team was having the Covid outbreak early where he had top-6 and top-PP minutes (although in the bumper) or else the Leafs should bring him to the AHL. It's not a development league, but if they want to keep him for this season (and possibly next) they better be trying their best to develop him. Niemela I had as a first round pick and we magically got him in the 3rd. His ability in the WJC and WJSS just shows that he can be outright dominant against fantastic players his own age. I expect him to have a major role with his team this season, and it will be his third year in a ~top-5 league. His rel stats looked fantastic against decently easy comp, but this is a guy that's clearly too good to be sheltered at this point. If all goes well and Sandin/Liljegren/Robertson graduate like I assume they will this year I wouldn't be surprised if he passed Amirov as our best prospect. This guy had major helium last year and it should continue.

A couple other guys I'm really interested in seeing another year of development are Abruzzese, Ovchinnikov, Koster, and Tverberg. Abruzzese needs to come back even stronger than his freshman year after anotother wasted year of development. Ovchinnikov needs to become a staple at the KHL level or be traded/brought over to NA. Need to see if he's for real or not, and we've had a bad track record of drafting MHL guys recently. Koster needs to establish himself as a top-4 (or top-pair) guy on a stacked Minnesota team. Tverberg needs to show that he's actually a NHL level prospect.

Knies is obviously interesting, but Minnesota is stacked and it wouldn't be shocking if he didn't get a huge role. Really hoping to see him at the WJC. Kokkonen & Hirvonen I'm interested to see what happens now on a decent team. A little sad to see Kokkonen might not be a #1 that was thriving in the role (expect points obv). Hirvonen I need to see if the underlying stats are going to continue or else he's going to take a major jump in my rankings. Holmberg if he can keep up the playoff play or at least keep up the dominant rel stats in the 3rd best league. Miettinen if he can improve on last seasons fantastic play. SDA, Kral & Abramov if they can take the next step at the AHL level.

 

[stickty111]

More scouting people are coming out that are high on the Leafs farm system. Wheeler had it something like 13th during the season, and others have even had it in the top 5. One of the best things that Dubas has done. When you focus on talent and future progression, the prospects will look good. Even when our top 3 graduate, there will be a solid group there.

 

[Stephen]

I think the two prospects I'm most interested in this season to dive deeper into is Amirov & Niemela. I was a huge fan of Amirov pre-draft and he showed after with fantastic play for a 19 year old in the 2nd best league in the world. The only thing he was lacking was ice-time to show what he really had. The fact the Leafs left him in Russia even after he signed an ELC gives me Nylander vibes in that if they don't like how the season is going or his usage they have the ability to take him away. A team like Salavat does not have the luxury to slow play a player of his caliber like SKA did with Podkolzin so his ice time should revert back to when his team was having the Covid outbreak early where he had top-6 and top-PP minutes (although in the bumper) or else the Leafs should bring him to the AHL. It's not a development league, but if they want to keep him for this season (and possibly next) they better be trying their best to develop him. Niemela I had as a first round pick and we magically got him in the 3rd. His ability in the WJC and WJSS just shows that he can be outright dominant against fantastic players his own age. I expect him to have a major role with his team this season, and it will be his third year in a ~top-5 league. His rel stats looked fantastic against decently easy comp, but this is a guy that's clearly too good to be sheltered at this point. If all goes well and Sandin/Liljegren/Robertson graduate like I assume they will this year I wouldn't be surprised if he passed Amirov as our best prospect. This guy had major helium last year and it should continue.

I'm interested in understanding how scouts managed to name drop Auston Matthews and Nikita Kucherov in reference to Amirov's skillset even if it's "stylistic". Obviously that seems to have been scaled back post draft due to the weird pandemic hockey we've had the past while, and is customary to reign things in after a draft, but if this guy can manage to merge that fine puck control, two way ability and some level of that half wall sniping. Yeah we need that on an ELC.

 

[Knies iT]

I'm interested in understanding how scouts managed to name drop Auston Matthews and Nikita Kucherov in reference to Amirov's skillset even if it's "stylistic". Obviously that seems to have been scaled back post draft due to the weird pandemic hockey we've had the past while, and is customary to reign things in after a draft, but if this guy can manage to merge that fine puck control, two way ability and some level of that half wall sniping. Yeah we need that on an ELC.

It was Amirov who compared his own game to Kuch/AM. Reason being he see's himself as a highly technical player in his approach. Not that they necessarily play alike stylistically, but the strengths in their games come from being extremely technically sound (e.g. Matthews' catch and release being built on a mid-stride lateral weight transfer and hip mobility instead of just brute power/strength - something Belfry was working on with Amirov recently).

 

[Fogelhund]

 

[uncleben]

Genuinely surprised he got an ELC from someone before playing pro, but good for him!

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Genuinely surprised he got an ELC from someone before playing pro, but good for him!

It's an AHL contract.

 

[uncleben]

It's an AHL contract.

Oh haha, I 100% read NHL
Thanks!

 

[Twine Tickler]

 

[Morgs]

Biggest enigma we have for me is Ovchinnikov. So much talent and his production was great... in the "weak" division in the MHL while playing like 26 minutes a game.

If he's in the MHL again, the Leafs need to step in somehow. He's just too clearly too good and he'd be wasting a year of development. He's got the stuff to be dominant at the KHL level as seen above, but he just doesn't seem like he will get the opportunity as Sibir cannot afford to play their young talent and they don't have a VHL org.

He needs to play, and even 8-10 mins at the KHL level is better than 26 at the MHL.

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

Amirov with a nice assist

 

[Morgs]

 

[Morgs]

 

[Twine Tickler]

I think the two prospects I'm most interested in this season to dive deeper into is Amirov & Niemela. I was a huge fan of Amirov pre-draft and he showed after with fantastic play for a 19 year old in the 2nd best league in the world. The only thing he was lacking was ice-time to show what he really had. The fact the Leafs left him in Russia even after he signed an ELC gives me Nylander vibes in that if they don't like how the season is going or his usage they have the ability to take him away. A team like Salavat does not have the luxury to slow play a player of his caliber like SKA did with Podkolzin so his ice time should revert back to when his team was having the Covid outbreak early where he had top-6 and top-PP minutes (although in the bumper) or else the Leafs should bring him to the AHL. It's not a development league, but if they want to keep him for this season (and possibly next) they better be trying their best to develop him. Niemela I had as a first round pick and we magically got him in the 3rd. His ability in the WJC and WJSS just shows that he can be outright dominant against fantastic players his own age. I expect him to have a major role with his team this season, and it will be his third year in a ~top-5 league. His rel stats looked fantastic against decently easy comp, but this is a guy that's clearly too good to be sheltered at this point. If all goes well and Sandin/Liljegren/Robertson graduate like I assume they will this year I wouldn't be surprised if he passed Amirov as our best prospect. This guy had major helium last year and it should continue.

A couple other guys I'm really interested in seeing another year of development are Abruzzese, Ovchinnikov, Koster, and Tverberg. Abruzzese needs to come back even stronger than his freshman year after anotother wasted year of development. Ovchinnikov needs to become a staple at the KHL level or be traded/brought over to NA. Need to see if he's for real or not, and we've had a bad track record of drafting MHL guys recently. Koster needs to establish himself as a top-4 (or top-pair) guy on a stacked Minnesota team. Tverberg needs to show that he's actually a NHL level prospect.

Knies is obviously interesting, but Minnesota is stacked and it wouldn't be shocking if he didn't get a huge role. Really hoping to see him at the WJC. Kokkonen & Hirvonen I'm interested to see what happens now on a decent team. A little sad to see Kokkonen might not be a #1 that was thriving in the role (expect points obv). Hirvonen I need to see if the underlying stats are going to continue or else he's going to take a major jump in my rankings. Holmberg if he can keep up the playoff play or at least keep up the dominant rel stats in the 3rd best league. Miettinen if he can improve on last seasons fantastic play. SDA, Kral & Abramov if they can take the next step at the AHL level.

At this point our prospect pool resembles a roulette board.

We have high probability hits with Sandin, Robby, Lilly, and Rodian. Kind of like the "Outside" of the board, the red/black. These guys look like sure bet's for the NHL at this point, and I'd say at lease 2 of the 4 will have a significant NHL impact.

Then we have guys that I would classify as the "1st 12, 2nd 12, and 3rd 12" section of the roulette board, wherein they have a decent probability of success but maybe not a 50/50 for having a significant NHL impact. In this group I'd put Neimela, Hirvonen, Anderson and Kokonen. All of the listed prospects have the builds/skill to play at the NHL level in some capacity. Some are tracking to have bigger roles than others. Niemela being the one real standout in this group IMO. I feel his skill is right up there with the first group, but I still need to see a bit more before I say he's a sure thing. That said, they all look like they should see NHL time at some point in their careers.

And then for the final group, the most fun group to track IMO...The inside of the roulette board. The Low probability with homerun returns. This is the group I really think I am most excited about for next year. We have a ton of players in this group who could be homerun's, but in reality most will not. Nonetheless, it is extremely exciting to see so many "chips" at this part of the table knowing where we've been drafting in recent years as well as how many picks we've traded away in our "contending" window. This list includes (in no particular order):

Abrusezze, Koster, Ovchinikov, Miettenen, Kral, Abramov, Akhtyamov, Tverberg, Holmberg, Rindell, SDA, Gogolev, Voit, Knies, and Joe Miller

This is the group where you see the most meteoric rise and fall from. They are higher variant prospects, with real NHL potential. I think of the 15 players I have listed in this grouping, I would not be surprised to see 5 of these players really have strong 2021-22 season's where they evolve into a player with legitimate NHL upside and move into that second grouping (1st 12, 2nd 12...etc). All of the players in this group have positively tracked forward since being drafted, it's just a matter of continuing that momentum forward.

Really looking forward to following this group next year. Lots of very intriguing players.

But if I had to chose one player I am most excited to track, I think its Ty Voit. I really think this kid could break the doors open this year in the O, and have people shaking their heads at why they let him fall that far.

 

[zeke]

Love this kid.

 

[kerk]

 

[zeke]

Its pretty funny/amazing but we actually have a large group of 5th/6th round picks that are actually worth being optimistic about. Particularly forwards.

5 Voit
5 Ovchinnikov
6 Miettenin
6 Holmberg

I legit think all of these guys have a real chance to be good nhlers and I'd be pretty disappointed if none of them made it.

These dmen are a bit more questionable imo but actually still interesting too....tho I wouldn't be surprised if none of them made it:

5 Kral
5 Koster
6 Rindell

 

[Morgs]

f***ing disgusting. Another guy I'm really looking forward to this season. Some of the best rel stats on his team in tough minutes and then absolutely dominating the playoffs.

 

[stickty111]

Thats some kind of skill. Didn't realize he had that in him.

 

[Morgs]

Its pretty funny/amazing but we actually have a large group of 5th/6th round picks that are actually worth being optimistic about. Particularly forwards.

5 Voit
5 Ovchinnikov
6 Miettenin
6 Holmberg

I legit think all of these guys have a real chance to be good nhlers and I'd be pretty disappointed if none of them made it.

These dmen are a bit more questionable imo but actually still interesting too....tho I wouldn't be surprised if none of them made it:

5 Kral
5 Koster
6 Rindell

Not to mention 3rd Round picks in Niemela, Kokkonen, and SDA, and 4th round picks in Abruzzese, Abramov and Ahktyamov, AND a 7th round pick in Tverberg.

Although it hasn't payed out yet, the drafting has been arguably the best in the league since 2018 based on expected pick value.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Imagine if this kid turns out to be like Kucherov

Not to mention 3rd Round picks in Niemela, Kokkonen, and SDA, and 4th round picks in Abruzzese, Abramov and Ahktyamov, AND a 7th round pick in Tverberg.

Although it hasn't payed out yet, the drafting has been arguably the best in the league since 2018 based on expected pick value.

I've also really liked Carolin's drafting the last few years

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

so they're not hiring Imoo after all