Mark Stone vs. Matthew Tkachuk

[Nizdizzle]

Stone - now and for the next year or two at least. Its just rare to get a winger with the offensive and defensive ability in one package.

If I'm building for the future something like 3+ years out Tkachuk would seem like the better candidate (as Stone will be entering his 30s).

 

[Bounces R Way]

What the hell are you talking about? I never discounted his PP points, I said he played more minutes there, hence has more opportunity for points than Stone. Just as Stone has more opportunity for ES points because he plays more there. In the end their advantages both roughly cancel out, because PP minutes are more valuable toward point production. If you're going to bring up minutes played, you need to figure out where those minutes are coming from. It's obviously not as simple as Stone plays more.

If Tkachuk scored at the exact same rate at ES he does now, but played Stone's number of minutes, he would increase his ES scoring from 36 points to 41, and if he also scored at the exact same rate on the PP he does now, but only played Stone's number of minutes, his PP scoring would decrease from 21 to 17. So he gains 5 more ES points and loses 4 PP points. Stone's "huge minute advantage" results in 1 extra point for Tkachuk. Tkachuk has been slightly more productive this season, but it has nothing to do with ice time

You kind of did by assuming that if Stone got more PP minutes he would produce at the same rates as Tkachuk does, even though Tkachuk has a higher P/60 on the PP. You also have to note that Calgary ranks second in the league for PP opportunities, while Ottawa ranks 24th. If they are afforded more opportunities then I'm sure Stone's PPTOI would increase as well. Stone also has a much higher PDO this year and a much better individual SH%. Not everything can be viewed through such a static lens, all things being equal. If you want to conclude that 36 PP seconds equals 129 even strength seconds then I guess more power to you. Still doesn't change the fact Stone is used in a 1st line capacity while Tkachuk isn't and is still outpointing him.

“Stone gets more icetime.”

“Tkachuk gets more ice time on the PP.”

“So you’re holding it against Tkachuk that he gets more ice time?”

“Er, isn’t that exactly what you were doing?”

It’s pretty close now but Stone has to do a lot more with less.

As an asset though, Tkachuk’s age makes this a no-brainer long-term.

I'm not holding it against anyone. Made a comment that Stone averages more TOI at even strength than Tkachuk does, and that that difference is typical of 1st line compared to 2nd line usage. Tkachuk does benefit from PP time with great linemates, but his 5v5 line consists of Backlund and Frolik, neither have ever cracked 25 goals in a season.

 

[tony d]

Mark Stone for me.

 

[Walter Sobchak]

Stone right now, he is the better overall player. However, projecting out over the next 10 years there are not many wingers in the league that I'd take over Tkachuk. His game is awesome and gets better by the month. Smart, skilled player who plays with an edge and pisses the bejesus out of everyone he plays against.

 

[Regal]

You kind of did by assuming that if Stone got more PP minutes he would produce at the same rates as Tkachuk does, even though Tkachuk has a higher P/60 on the PP. You also have to note that Calgary ranks second in the league for PP opportunities, while Ottawa ranks 24th. If they are afforded more opportunities then I'm sure Stone's PPTOI would increase as well. Stone also has a much higher PDO this year and a much better individual SH%. Not everything can be viewed through such a static lens, all things being equal. If you want to conclude that 36 PP seconds equals 129 even strength seconds then I guess more power to you. Still doesn't change the fact Stone is used in a 1st line capacity while Tkachuk isn't and is still outpointing him.

I never said Stone would produce the same with more minutes on the PP, I really have no idea where you're getting that. You are suggesting that Stone playing more minutes is an advantage to him for putting up more points, but somehow don't think the allocation of those minutes matter. If you want to suggest that more minutes=more points, then we have to conclude that more PP minutes=more points. This doesn't mean Stone would produce the same as Tkachuk there, it means he would produce more than he currently is there, and at roughly the equivalent of the ES points he would lose should he also play Tkachuk's ES ice time. And yes, if Ottawa had more PP opportunities, Stone would likely play more minutes there...and score more PP points. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make with that.

As I stated before, considering the ratio of Tkachuk's PP minute advantage to Stone's ES minute advantage is roughly the equivalent of the ratio of both of their PP scoring rates to their ES scoring rates, those ice time advantages balance out. And I literally did the math for you to show that Tkachuk playing these "1st line minutes" would result in a single extra point should his scoring rates hold. I'm not "just believing these things cancel out", I proved they did statistically. Now, Tkachuk's rates likely don't stay exactly the same with different minutes, but without any statistics to show how they're likely to change, it's all we have to go on, and unless you can bring up a reason for why these don't cancel out other than meaningless terms like "1st line minutes", then ice time is not a factor here to consider. That's not to say things like PDO and the existing point gap aren't relevant.

 

[Tkachuky]

Love Stone.

Imagine

Chucky-Backlund-Stone

Dear god...

 

[topshelf15]

Either or for me,both are fantastic but for different reasons

 

[Bounces R Way]

I never said Stone would produce the same with more minutes on the PP, I really have no idea where you're getting that. You are suggesting that Stone playing more minutes is an advantage to him for putting up more points, but somehow don't think the allocation of those minutes matter. If you want to suggest that more minutes=more points, then we have to conclude that more PP minutes=more points. This doesn't mean Stone would produce the same as Tkachuk there, it means he would produce more than he currently is there, and at roughly the equivalent of the ES points he would lose should he also play Tkachuk's ES ice time. And yes, if Ottawa had more PP opportunities, Stone would likely play more minutes there...and score more PP points. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make with that.

As I stated before, considering the ratio of Tkachuk's PP minute advantage to Stone's ES minute advantage is roughly the equivalent of the ratio of both of their PP scoring rates to their ES scoring rates, those ice time advantages balance out. And I literally did the math for you to show that Tkachuk playing these "1st line minutes" would result in a single extra point should his scoring rates hold. I'm not "just believing these things cancel out", I proved they did statistically. Now, Tkachuk's rates likely don't stay exactly the same with different minutes, but without any statistics to show how they're likely to change, it's all we have to go on, and unless you can bring up a reason for why these don't cancel out other than meaningless terms like "1st line minutes", then ice time is not a factor here to consider. That's not to say things like PDO and the existing point gap aren't relevant.

Just seems like a lot of mental gymnastics to say an ice time advantage of over 2 minutes per game at 5v5 "roughly cancels out". If you want to think comparing first line minutes to second line minutes is meaningless you go right ahead. I don't subscribe to that theory. There's nothing incorrect in this statement:

Tkachuk has more goals and assists this season while averaging 3 minutes fewer than Stone. He's also 5 and a half years younger.

You didn't really prove anything, you made assumptions that scoring rates would remain the same regardless of minutes which is a major leap considering how much of what a player will be in the NHL is about opportunity. Since entering the league M. Tkachuk trails only two forwards in CF%, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, so I find the suggestion Stone is head and shoulders better than him defensively to be entirely one of reputation and not of substance.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Lol Stone is so underrated here

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

I like how Stone playing more 5v5 minutes and being a more efficient 5v5 producer than Tkachuk is somehow an argument against Stone

 

[Regal]

Just seems like a lot of mental gymnastics to say an ice time advantage of over 2 minutes per game at 5v5 "roughly cancels out". If you want to think comparing first line minutes to second line minutes is meaningless you go right ahead. I don't subscribe to that theory. There's nothing incorrect in this statement:

You didn't really prove anything, you made assumptions that scoring rates would remain the same regardless of minutes which is a major leap considering how much of what a player will be in the NHL is about opportunity. Since entering the league M. Tkachuk trails only two forwards in CF%, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand, so I find the suggestion Stone is head and shoulders better than him defensively to be entirely one of reputation and not of substance.

I literally showed you how the math works out and you stuck your fingers in your ears. If you want to claim an ice time advantage that advantage needs to be shown that it leads to more points. It doesn't. It's not a theory. It's a fact. You're just talking talking out your ass.

 

[Bounces R Way]

I literally showed you how the math works out and you stuck your fingers in your ears. If you want to claim an ice time advantage that advantage needs to be shown that it leads to more points. It doesn't. It's not a theory. It's a fact. You're just talking talking out your ass.

You literally made several half cocked assumptions of totally hypothetical situations and then expected them to be taken as fact. More ice time = more opportunity. Didn't really expect that to be such an abstract concept.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

You literally made several half cocked assumptions of totally hypothetical situations and then expected them to be taken as fact. More ice time = more opportunity. Didn't really expect that to be such an abstract concept.

stone has the "opportunity" to play with garbage players in ottawa. good thing tkachuk is solid otherwise stone would be in for a completely hellish time.

 

[Bounces R Way]

stone has the "opportunity" to play with garbage players in ottawa. good thing tkachuk is solid otherwise stone would be in for a completely hellish time.

Yeah. Duchene, White, Tkachuk, Chabot, Dzingel are all garbage while Backlund and Frolik are minted gold. Mark Stone's highest scoring finish was tied for 30th in 2014-15, and he was outproduced that year by the likes of Nick Foligno and Tyler Johnson in less games. Incredible to me there is some in HF's echo chamber that believe he's a top 5 winger because of takeaways.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Yeah. Duchene, White, Tkachuk, Chabot, Dzingel are all garbage while Backlund and Frolik are minted gold. Mark Stone's highest scoring finish was tied for 30th in 2014-15, and he was outproduced that year by the likes of Nick Foligno and Tyler Johnson in less games. Incredible to me there is some in HF's echo chamber that believe he's a top 5 winger because of takeaways.

white: worse than backlund ez
duchene: doesnt play with stone, that would be like me citing gaudreau
chabot: good but tbh his on ice numbers without stone arent, also gio exists and you didnt mention him
dzingel: good but again doesnt usually play with stone

also you are forgetting just how good johnson was in 14-15

 

[VoluntaryDom]

hes not just a top 5 winger, hes a top 5 player overall, due to his scoring impact and his ability to essentially tilt the ice with horrible qot. amazing in transition too, and amazing defensive microstats. mark stone is a monster.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

mark stone literally has nearly +15 rel xgf% this season LMAO

 

[Bounces R Way]

white: worse than backlund ez
duchene: doesnt play with stone, that would be like me citing gaudreau
chabot: good but tbh his on ice numbers without stone arent, also gio exists and you didnt mention him
dzingel: good but again doesnt usually play with stone

also you are forgetting just how good johnson was in 14-15

Duchene and Dzingel have played a bunch of minutes with Stone this year. Second most frequent line combo for him.

hes not just a top 5 winger, hes a top 5 player overall, due to his scoring impact and his ability to essentially tilt the ice with horrible qot. amazing in transition too, and amazing defensive microstats. mark stone is a monster.

mark stone literally has nearly +15 rel xgf% this season LMAO

This is your brain on rel xGF%. Please seek help.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Duchene and Dzingel have played a bunch of minutes with Stone this year. Second most frequent line combo for him.





This is your brain on rel xGF%. Please seek help.

stone literally has 44 CF QOT lol he plays with trash and lugs them around the ice

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.