Mario Lemieux circa 1988-89 = 65 goals and 88 assists for 153 points in 2022

[Melrose Munch]

So I only today digested an old thread from 2017 - it had 1,000 replies! - around the topic of how good Wayne Gretzky really was. The thread was incredibly entertaining, and I got a lot out of it. Didn't care too much for the idea that #99 would have been a 70-80 point guy in today's game - as if he wouldn't have (like today's players) also been on a blue-ribbon diet and fitness regimen. He 1000% would have.

I have a spreadsheet that I created a number of years ago that contains league average goals per game, assists per game, PiM per game etc. for every professional hockey season going all the way back to 1886 - and including the NHL, NHA, PCHA and WCHL, ECAHA, ECHA, CAHL and AHAC.

I have been tinkering around with a cross-translation/NORMALIZED statistical formula for many years, and have along the way come to admit that it's a very inexact science. However, assessments can be made - and a lot can be revealed when you have two ingredients: (1) Reliable estimated ice time for a player, and (2) Their goals, assists & penalty minutes.

Anyway, long story short, the long thread about Gretzky touched on some excellent points and inspired me to do some calculations - basically to see how some of the greats from yesteryear stack up in a cross-era comparison to some of the dudes who currently haunt the dreams of NHL goaltenders (Kucherov, for example). Check it out (below) and let me know what you think.

Player............................Season....................GP....G......A.....Pts.......Ice Time.....(Estimated Ice Time)
Mario Lemieux 1988-1989 80 65 88 153 20:00 (23:00)
Wayne Gretzky 1984-1985 80 51 98 149 20:00 (23:00)
Howie Morenz 1927-1928 80 48 90 138 20:00 (43:00)
Peter Forsberg 2002-2003 80 37 99 136 20:00 (19:20)
Nikita Kucherov 2018-2019 80 42 89 131 20:00 (19:58)
Guy Lafleur 1976-1977 80 52 77 129 20:00 (20:00)
Evgeni Malkin 2011-2012 80 59 69 128 20:00 (21:01)
Duke Keats 1921-1922 80 31 90 121 20:00 (55:00)
Patrick Kane 2015-2016 80 51 67 118 20:00 (20:25)
Frank Boucher 1928-1929 80 21 96 117 20:00 (38:00)
Jaromir Jagr 1998-1999 80 40 76 116 20:00 (25:51)
Gordie Howe 1952-1953 80 56 59 115 20:00 (26:00)
Joe Thornton 2006-2007 80 23 92 115 20:00 (20:19)
Sergei Fedorov 1993-1994 80 53 61 114 20:00 (20:00)
Joe Sakic 2000-2001 80 52 62 114 20:00 (23:01)
Alex Ovechkin 2007-2008 80 63 45 108 20:00 (23:06)
Bobby Hull 1965-1966 80 59 48 107 20:00 (23:00)
Martin St. Louis 2003-2004 80 43 64 107 20:00 (20:35)
Sidney Crosby 2013-2014 80 37 69 106 20:00 (21:58)
Steve Yzerman 1992-1993 80 43 59 102 20:00 (22:00)
Milt Schmidt 1939-1940 80 39 62 101 20:00 (24:00)
Maurice Richard 1950-1951 80 59 40 99 20:00 (20:00)
Pavel Bure 1999-2000 80 59 37 96 20:00 (24:23)

I know some of you would think #99 played more than "just" 23 minutes a game, but one of the posters on the Gretzky thread I referred to earlier demonstrated quite to my satisfaction that 23 minutes is a reasonable guess. Of course there are going to be games where a player plays more, and other games where he plays less; but for #99 I set the guess at 23 minutes of ice.

Items of interest:

* Forsberg ended up with 99 "translated" assists - one more than the Great One!
* Lemieux 1988-89 "Super Mario" ended up with four more points than Gretzky and two more goals than Ovechkin. I suspect Brett Hull would end up with more than Mario's 65 if I were to apply my method to his sick 1990-91 stat line.
*Rocket Richard, Bobby Hull and MALKIN tied with 59 translated goals apiece

I am late, but this is a great breakdown. I am wondering if you could normalize this to 84 games and 22:00 of ice time, and how the numbers would change.

 

[McFlash97]

The non-obstruction rules of today would have benefitted Lemieux more than Gretz. He was so big and players would just grab onto him and the refs allowed it. Gretz didn't suffer as much from the clutch and grab.

As for other seasons... in my mind, Lemieux's 93 year where he was Hodgkins, misses 20 games, wins the scoring title and paces for something like 213 points and 90+ goals is the greatest season by any player ever. 160 points while missing 20 games because of cancer is absolutely insane.

Except Gretzky paced higher than this 2 times.

 

[JianYang]

Watching Mario play was like playing an NHL video game on easy mode. He was too good.

Pittsburgh took a very long time to insulate Mario with good talent around him. Never mind the what ifs about his chronic ailments. The fact that he got 199 points with that supporting cast might make it the most incredible individual accomplishment of all time.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Except Gretzky paced higher than this 2 times.

Did Gretz have cancer when he did it?

 

[McFlash97]

Did Gretz have cancer when he did it?

Think logically. Lemieux when he came back was more than 100 %. He was well rested. Use more logic. If Mario did this then why couldn't he approach this number in any other season when healthy ? My personal take it he was pretty dam well rested after his treatment and was absolutely ready to go. Yes the optics of cancer treatment makes this accomplishment pretty rare, but how does take away from Gretzkys even greater achievements? Staying healthy and going through a grinding season over and over again and putting up insane numbers every single time is also mindboggling

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Think logically. Lemieux when he came back was more than 100 %. He was well rested. Use more logic. If Mario did this then why couldn't he approach this number in any other season when healthy ? My personal take it he was pretty dam well rested after his treatment and was absolutely ready to go. Yes the optics of cancer treatment makes this accomplishment pretty rare, but how does take away from Gretzkys even greater achievements? Staying healthy and going through a grinding season over and over again and putting up insane numbers every single time is also mindboggling

You sound like someone who's never had cancer nor been around someone actively undergoing cancer treatments.

Be grateful for that.

 

[McFlash97]

You sound like someone who's never had cancer nor been around someone actively undergoing cancer treatments.

Be grateful for that.

Pretty judgemental of you there isn't it ? How do you know my medical history ?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Pretty judgemental of you there isn't it ? How do you know my medical history ?

"You sound like someone..."

And you do.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Think logically.

Right back at you. You're not 100 percent coming back right after that.

Get real man.

 

[McFlash97]

Right back at you. You're not 100 percent coming back right after that.

Get real man.

I overshot my analysis , but still, Mario was dam healthy when he returned.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I overshot my analysis , but still, Mario was dam healthy when he returned.

Months removed from cancer treatments and he has that insane season…. Come on.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I'm still stunned that we had to seriously discuss "the optics of cancer treatment" in an ostensibly serious thread.

Yeah, Mario Lemieux played up f***ing cancer, man. Clearly sandbagging.

 

[Dingo]

Ehhhhhh, I probably shouldn’t wade into the Hodgkins’ Lymphoma talk too much….

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I'm still stunned that we had to seriously discuss "the optics of cancer treatment" in an ostensibly serious thread.

Yeah, Mario Lemieux played up f***ing cancer, man. Clearly sandbagging.

It’s stunning.

 

[biblihockey]

"Awww if if if!!!! If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. Who cares?"

Oh here i am very surprised. i find out here that " si mon oncle en avait, on l'appellerait ma tante" exists in english. I thought it was only in France or is yourreal name Jean Gâteaux ?

 

[Mike C]

That's not not interesting, but it should be pointed out that Gretzky also had other seasons with even higher P/G than his record years, or had 50 games stretches of that before something happened. I agree with you though that Gretzky and Lemieux would do excellent in today's game, which some people somehow don't think.

On the OP and these discussions in general:

I think comparing players scoring paces vs their own competition is more relevant and accurate than attempts at adjusted stats which become more speculative and often do cherry picking in order to do a confirmation bias in the sought after direction. Gretzky is the man, and all attempts at poking holes at that are weak.

Anyone who denies the greatness of Gretzky, Orr, Esposito, Bossy, Howe, Hull, etc is just playing the fool

If my mom was my father would I be my own brother?

In today's world, your mom CAN be your father!

 

[TheStatican]

I overshot my analysis , but still, Mario was dam healthy when he returned.

Which is why he had just 3 points in his first 3 games back, his worst stretch that entire season when he normally would average 8 pts over 3. But yeah sure, he was completely healthy and in 100% game shape and had absolutely zero disadvantages

 

[KCC]

Mario lived on the PP during his career and people don't care.

McDavid has one insane PP year last year and people go off about how he's a "PP merchant". People are ridiculous.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Mario lived on the PP during his career and people don't care.

McDavid has one insane PP year last year and people go off about how he's a "PP merchant". People are ridiculous.

I know that you're aware that HFBoards is actually comprised of multiple people, but I believe that you're conflating two groups of people into one cohort.

Can you identify someone who has stated the simultaneous beliefs that you describe above?

I agree that people are ridiculous, however - would you believe that there's someone out there who says publicly that cancer treatments are a walk in the park?

 

[Mike C]

Which is why he had just 3 points in his first 3 games back, his worst stretch that entire season when he normally would average 8 pts over 3. But yeah sure, he was completely healthy and in 100% game shape and had absolutely zero disadvantages

View attachment 730025

Good one!

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Mario lived on the PP during his career and people don't care.

McDavid has one insane PP year last year and people go off about how he's a "PP merchant". People are ridiculous.

"Lived on the PP" seems an exaggeration. 701 points on the PP when he scored 1723 points overall isn't exactly "living on the PP".

His best season (199 points), he had 79 PP points, which translates to 39.7% (or 40% rounded up) on the PP. In comparison, McDavid's best season (153 points), he had 71 points on the PP, which translates to 46.4% on the PP. So technically speaking, McDavid's best season *is* more PP reliant than Lemieux's best.

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

"Lived on the PP" seems an exaggeration. 701 points on the PP when he scored 1723 points overall isn't exactly "living on the PP".

His best season (199 points), he had 79 PP points, which translates to 39.7% (or 40% rounded up) on the PP. In comparison, McDavid's best season (153 points), he had 71 points on the PP, which translates to 46.4% on the PP. So technically speaking, McDavid's best season *is* more PP reliant than Lemieux's best.

I want to preface this by saying its foolish to diminish a player for contributing on the power play. Goals are goals and they all help win games equally.

Out of the big 4 Lemieux got the most of his points by far on the power play.

Howe had 564/1850 (30%). Gretzky had 890/2857 (31%). Orr had 324/915 (35%). And Lemieux 701/1723 (41%). 41% is a large portion.

Draisaitl is often ridiculed as a powerplay merchant and has 257/744 points (35%) on the powerplay.

4 of the top 5 ppp seasons in history are Lemieux's.

Lemieux also had a few seasons that were more "powerplay reliant" than McDavids last year. 80/168 in 1988 (48%), 79/161 in 1996 (49%), 66/141 in 1986 (47%),

Lemieux is probably the best powerplay player ever, and that is absolutely not meant as a knock.

 

[Victorias]

I want to preface this by saying its foolish to diminish a player for contributing on the power play. Goals are goals and they all help win games equally.

Out of the big 4 Lemieux got the most of his points by far on the power play.

Howe had 564/1850 (30%). Gretzky had 890/2857 (31%). Orr had 324/915 (35%). And Lemieux 701/1723 (41%). 41% is a large portion.

Draisaitl is often ridiculed as a powerplay merchant and has 257/744 points (35%) on the powerplay.

4 of the top 5 ppp seasons in history are Lemieux's.

Lemieux also had a few seasons that were more "powerplay reliant" than McDavids last year. 80/168 in 1988 (48%), 79/161 in 1996 (49%), 66/141 in 1986 (47%),

Lemieux is probably the best powerplay player ever, and that is absolutely not meant as a knock.

Out of curiosity - since you seem to have the numbers in front of you - what are the career percentages for Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid?

And does this percentage tend to vary over a player’s career? (ie they become more PP dependent?)

 

[klefbombs shoulder]

Out of curiosity - since you seem to have the numbers in front of you - what are the career percentages for Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid?

And does this percentage tend to vary over a player’s career? (ie they become more PP dependent?)

Ill give you the top 10 ppg of the cap era with 500 games played, from NHL.com.

Player	PPG	Points	PPP	PPP %
McDavid	1.49	850	289	34.0
Crosby	1.26	1502	537	35.8
Draisaitl	1.17	744	257	34.5
Malkin	1.16	1229	474	38.6
Kucherov	1.13	729	265	36.4
Panarin	1.12	661	195	29.5
Ovechkin	1.10	1485	553	37.2
Marner	1.09	554	168	30.3
MacKinnon	1.07	759	240	31.6
Stamkos	1.05	1056	383	36.3

No idea how it varies over a players career. Just from this sample of the 10 most productive in the cap era it seems that the players who played in the early cap (Crosby, Malkin, Ovi, and Stamkos) have a generally higher share of points of the powerplay. The league had a huge surge in PPO after the lockout that gradual dwindled away which could account for this.

 

[Victorias]

Ill give you the top 10 ppg of the cap era with 500 games played, from NHL.com.

Player	PPG	Points	PPP	PPP %
McDavid	1.49	850	289	34.0
Crosby	1.26	1502	537	35.8
Draisaitl	1.17	744	257	34.5
Malkin	1.16	1229	474	38.6
Kucherov	1.13	729	265	36.4
Panarin	1.12	661	195	29.5
Ovechkin	1.10	1485	553	37.2
Marner	1.09	554	168	30.3
MacKinnon	1.07	759	240	31.6
Stamkos	1.05	1056	383	36.3

No idea how it varies over a players career. Just from this sample of the 10 most productive in the cap era it seems that the players who played in the early cap (Crosby, Malkin, Ovi, and Stamkos) have a generally higher share of points of the powerplay. The league had a huge surge in PPO after the lockout that gradual dwindled away which could account for this.

Yeah, on that note it seems like PPO’s also peaked around when Mario had his most PP points:

87-88, 95-96, 88-89, and 85-86 were the 4 big years and they’re all in top 10 PPO seasons all-time. So it might be worth adjusting for that; McDavid 22-23 seems more PP dependent.