The Star: Maple Leafs should trade Phil Kessel

[ULF_55]

It's true, and one of the biggest reasons I would like to keep Kessel around for the long-term....at a reasonable price tag of course.

Maybe this should be a poll?

Would you like to trade Kessel?

a) In a transaction that makes the team worse
b) In a transaction that makes the team better

 

[Daisy Jane]

Maybe this should be a poll?

Would you like to trade Kessel?

a) In a transaction that makes the team worse
b) In a transaction that makes the team better

i'm all for making the team worse

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

He's been a minus player ES, regardless of who he has played with...

So in other words for all the good he does when even strength, he costs us when 5 on 5, badly, with his non-existent defensive and physical play.

Nothing earth-shattering here, just a fact (that some Leafs fan don't like owning up to!).

That's the beauty of the PP...no defending required! Bodes well with Phil Kessel's style.

An interesting statement from a guy who refuses to actually look at any of the instances that caused the pluses or minuses.

 

[Bomber0104]

What is your point? He plays gritty against softer competition. Perry isn't that great defensively, and anyone who suggests that is outright mad.

My original point was not that Perry is great defensively, nor did I ever say that. I was simply stating that Perry is a better all-round player than Kessel and that is why he commanded the contract he did. At least Perry will check and put in a solid effort to maintaining puck possession. Kessel relies on others to do the lifting and get him the puck.

It's not like the Ducks are going to intentionally hold him back against top competition. Datsyuk, on the other hand, produces against the top lines.

Again, the original point was not if Datsyuk is better than Perry.. you're wandering off the point. Datsyuk is one of the best in the game, period. And like you said, it has a lot to do with what goes on outside his point totals, since he is a supremely talented puck possessor.

Crosby isn't gritty either. What the hell is your point?

Crosby is far more gritty than Kessel...checks...takes the abuse to make his plays...blocks shots with his face....

People who are barely familiar with the game, of course.

Logical fallacy: appeal to authority. Perry was noted by Randy for floating. You know, his own damn coach at that time. I don't see
much changes in his style of play.

It takes a team to win a cup, not an individual. Corey was a side character on a team with two elite defenceman, an elite top line, and elite centre as his linemate. That shut down line

Ask anyone. The better all-round player is Corey Perry and until Phil wins a Rocket Richard, Hart, and a Cup, I don't think he really has anything on him.

It's obvious that you don't watch the games. Kessel has been producing against the shut down lines. To consider him a PP specialist would ignore his presence during ES.

It's obvious that you don't understand how hockey works. And you're only looking at one side of the balance sheet, but not at all surprising.

See, in the game of hockey...chances are, you won't have the puck all the time...so that necessitates the need to change gameplans to try to reclaim the puck. We call this defence.

So in summation,

Offence (causing scoring chances)

AND

Defence (preventing scoring chances)

are the two aspects of even strength play that are to be analyzed for players. Kessel has a very bipolar impact even strength. He'll produce when given the opportunity, but he also coasts around, surrenders puck possession a lot (especially when played physically), half ***** his forechecks, and is noticeably absent in most physical battles in all areas of the ice...and this results in his line coughing up MORE goals than they can create.

So while he scores against "shutdown lines" (I'll go along with your Google stats for a second), he is getting scored on by those very same lines, to a greater degree.

Now why are "shutdown lines" scoring against Kessel's line? If they are scoring with as much ease as the Kessel line, I'd hardly call that being shutdown, I'd call that being outplayed by an altogether superior line of players...since after all (going back to the equation)...your line is only as good as your ability to both get chances and preventing them. You can't just ignore 50% of the job and expect success.

Umm...Getzlaf was normally sheltered during the regular season. That is, used offensively. During the playoffs, the opposition was essentially shutting him down. His production fell to 2 points, while in the 2011 playoffs, he produced, but in favourable (or sheltered) conditions.

Right...so while he was a rookie winning the Cup with Perry...sheltered. Fast forward and they are the number one line...sheltered. According to what again? Oh right,

Corsi = Shot Attempts FOR - Shot Attempts AGAINST

Means absolutely nothing...

The Leafs as a team had the 30th place CORSI in the entire league...they finished 9th in the standings.

Wrong.

Compelling rebuttal..

Thanks to Phil's speed and vision, he's probably better than Perry in that regard. If you watch the games, Perry is never used like Datsyuk.

Again, you can say Kessel is a better checking and defensive player than Perry all you want.

Doesn't make it real. Ask anyone...it will be a lopsided result in favor of Corey Perry.

It doesn't matter if I use quantitative data, or I use qualitative data. Corey Perry started out as a sheltered forward and will only produce in those settings.

According to a faulty set of information that in no way, shape, or form can be used to analyze a player independently...

You keep reverting back to these silly free internet stats that have no credibility in the world of hockey.

Offensive specialists are more likely going to be starting in the offensive zone. To re-gain possession against the top lines is going to tire you out offensively. Have you ever personally played against talented athletes?

See now you're blurring the argument. When you start in the defensive zone there is about a 50% chance you will regain possession. And if you lose, it is still even strength and possession can be reclaimed, assuming the players are fit for the role (in which case Grabovski isn't).

So in other words, against "offensive specialists", Grabo can't center a line since he can't score, and drags others down with him, the 50% of the time he gets possession, and the 50% of the time the other team has it, they are scoring on him and running circles around him, tiring him out.

And of course there is so much more hockey that goes on between whistles, with these things called "changes on the fly"...and seeing as how CORSI neither accounts for first and last changes...a coach can easily switch his defence or forward pairing right after a whistle which also diminishes the stats meaningfulness.

That is, unless you're Patrice Bergeron, but what's interesting to note is that the top four teams tend to have petty defensively sound forwards. For instance, it wouldn't be a good idea to wander off in the offensive zone vs the Crosby, Krecji, etc. You'll likely be exposing yourself defensively.

Any model that places Tyler Seguin above Patrice Bergeron, nevermind being equal or even close, is not to be trusted. According to CORSI, Tyler Seguin is a better player than Patrice Bergeron lol

This is where this post is going to get fun.

Irrelevant.

I believe I asked a very straight-forward question.

How can a faulty set of inputs (Shots Attempted FOR - Shots Attempted AGAINST) yield an un-faulty set of outputs (CORSI)? This defies natural law.

Because you realize it is an equation.. (SFA - SFS = Corsi)

If you put garbage in, you are going to get garbage out...and this is something that is a giveaway of someone's novice grasp of math and statistics. If the Left Side of the equation is invalid as a broad reaching analytical tool for hockey...then so too will the Right Side of the equation.

CORSI is an aggregate indicator.

It aggregates meaningless information...this is why it is not reliable or a valid way to rank players, lines, and teams.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Those shot selections would not be statistically significant.

Are you kidding me? Shot selection is everything in hockey. If a 5-man unit is pushing play to the outside, only letting the goalie handle perimeter shots and in turn high percentage saves, they should be rewarded for that, not punished based on a garbage stat like Shots Attempted AGAINST...and conversely the forwards shouldn't be rewarded for being unable to get net presence or a cycle game going that a garbage stat like Shots Attempted FOR accounts.

So again, why should we care about this garbage stat? And why would we then start categorizing the players based on the garbage stat? And then why would we even try to compare players from team to team with such a meaningless number?

It's all quite cute to me, this advanced stats stuff, but nothing more than a fad right now. The real stats, you know, meaningful ones? Well they are being used by real life NHL teams. Not this crap. That's why it's a free internet stat...and why people get paid to work for a scouting staff or agency.

If they were, that'd indicate poorer defensive zone coverage and a reduction in CORSI.

But who is responsible? Everyone on the ice? How can you even begin to start analyzing players individually with such a flawed metric?

If Dion Phaneuf stumbles at the blue line, and let's a player walk in for a breakaway goal...everyone is punished the same. There is no way to statistically prove why that shot was surrendered, where possession was lost, how possession was lost, by whom, and what could have been done to prevent it.

Well it turns out that is not a practical way to INDIVIDUALLY analyze a player when you paint the whole unit with the same broad stroke. Could it gauge possession for a line? In a very limited way. Can it gauge the quality of the shift for the line? Again, limited. Can it be used to rank players? Absolutely not.

Goaltending on average will be constant. Regardless of whether the CORSI changes, the same goalie ( in most cases) will be present.

A .920 save percentage one night is not the same as a .920 save percentage another night...because this doesn't take into account the frequency and quality of the scoring chance.

So goaltending is not constant. They are robots, they are people, and they go through peaks and valleys just as any individual player does. They can be on one night, off the other.

Someone who is out of touch with the game, and too in touch with spreadsheets wouldn't understand this.

The CORSI on the defending side would decrease.

For everyone. Not proportionally for the individual responsible for surrendering puck possession to the forechecker. And the forechecker is not rewarded for taking it back, under CORSI.

Superior puck distribution would result to higher an increasing CORSI for that team.

For everyone. Bergeron's incredible two-way play is reflected in Tyler Seguin's grossly inflated CORSI...because a shot for one is a shot for all. A shot of any kind too...not a scoring chance. I see nothing related to puck distribution embedded in this equation.

Corsi = Shot Attempts FOR - Shot Attempts AGAINST

Possession decreases during boneheaded defensive plays. Decrease in CORSI.

But Tyler Bozak is now punished because of Dion Phaneuf stumbling at the blue line and letting the player score on a breakaway.

A bonehead play for one is a bonehead play for all.

We know that Clarke MacArthur was sheltered, because we was playing with Kadri. Even on the defensive zone, McClement replaced Clarke, and it was a McClement - Grabs - Kulemin line.

And despite all that power on the wings, Grabo still could not be effective.

If it was Grabovski taking a spam shot from the top of the circle, he would be losing possession. Thus his CORSI will decrease and the linemate who purportedly helped him re-establish possession will be awarded a positive CORSI.

No it wouldn't. He just took a shot so his CORSI increases as well as any player on the ice...doesn't matter if a defenceman is tying his skate up in the other end, skating back to the bench, or anything..and again...shot quality is ignored too.

Do you know what's ridiculous? Grabovski had 80 shots, while Kulemin had 72 shots. Were Kulemin shots more higher quality than Grabovski? I really wonder, because Grabovski had a much higher shooting % than Kulemin.

Wonder all you like, it doesn't mean anything. Kulemin is the Leafs best defensive forward who is a better all-round player, and on a better contract than Grabovski.

Can you even keep up with the games? During the regular or post season, Bergeron was never used against Grabs line. Mikhail wasn't on the shut down unit (vs Krecji's line) during the playoffs even though he usually started in the defensive zone.

That's why I said he didn't even face the best lines...please re-read the post before misrepresenting my position.

I said Grabovski played poorly against Boston's second line. He didn't even go head to head against their first line...and did not go against Chara and Boychuk.

Starting away from the top lines increased his productivity. He was able to do more in the offensive zone. If he was used like his previous seasons, he would've produced at least 20goals and 50 points during the regular season.

He had 2 assists and 7 games!

Now as a pusher of stats, you'd think you would understand that this is not a 50 point, 20 goal kind of performance. He didn't play good at all, and the only reason anyone noticed him was because Boston was steamrolling him every chance they had.

Umm...offensive players normally start in the offensive zone. You have the Crosby-type guys who may not, but the high producing Perry, Tavares types are usually deployed in the offensive zone. To be utilized in that manner is going to mask a lot of defensive deficiencies.

Holy crap, it's just a whistle. How many whistles are there per period? Maybe 8-12 and that would included stoppages for penalties which lead to automatic offensive zone starts for the team with the man-advantage. There's 20 minutes of hockey to be played between these whistles so these faceoff starts are very limited in their usefulness and meaning.

If that is the case, CORSI would decrease, because Grabovski usually ends in the defensive zone. In other words, the possession positive guy would take the puck to the opposition zone.

No, once again, you're simply wrong. It seems you are very confused about stats, in general.

If Grabovski takes a low percentage spam shot and the goalie saves it, he is rewarded with a positive CORSI and an offensive zone finish, and the same goes for whoever else was on the ice.

He's rewarded the same as if Phil Kessel snipes a shot for a goal.

That spam shot is par value with an incredible goal.

Do you watch a game of hockey? I am starting to doubt that.

That's bogus..

Yes I watch hockey. I am also fluent in English and actually understand hockey and math/stats. How about you?

Why is Kulemin superior to Grabovski? I don't have to look at any spreadsheet to see that Grabs has a higher shoot percentage or that he establishes possessions better than Kulemin. After all, how is Grabs able to be the puck-hogging, tries-to-do-everything scrub in the offensive zone?

I have already debunked the notion that you can use CORSI to analyze players independently. So I don't know why you keep repeating the same senseless argument over and over.

Kulemin is a far better winger than Grabovski is a center and actually contributes in meaningful ways. Grabovski on the other hand, is a black hole offensively, and very underwhelming as a center. Grabovski had a poor year, while Kulemin had a very good one. Kulemin gets paid less than half Grabo's salary as well.

Different role. Shut down lines are supposed to produce against top lines. It's an offensive line. The PK unit is a defensive unit and is supposed to neutralize the top line's offence. In that regard, yes, Kulemin is superior within the defensive zone. However, when it comes to killing power plays and attacking the opposition zone, Grabovski is superior.

Weird because I see that superior defensive zone play carried right on over to the opponent's end with forechecking and a cycle game. Kulemin has much more versatility to offer the Leafs than Grabovski.

By that same logic, we can argue that Darren Helm is better against top lines than Datsyuk and Zetterberg because he spends significantly more time on the PK. Heck, throw in Cory Emmerton as well. However, it's pretty clear when watching the game that Dats and Zett perform a lot better against top lines. Yes, offensively better.

If Darren Helm was producing more points while playing a better all-round game than Datsyuk and Zetterberg (not possible), then he would be deemed to be superior.

The same logic is applied to Kulemin-Grabovski in which case Kulemin comes out on top quite easily in my opinion.

When the hell did I suggest otherwise? Its his hockey sense and stick handling that lets him maintain possession in the opposition zone. Seeing that Grabovski is a smallish forward, he isn't going to be that effective on the boards.

A huge part of being a center is the ability to play in all areas of the ice. With Kadri, Bozak, and possibly another top 6 center in the fold, that is by default the role Grabovski will have to take on. And since he isn't suited to it as well as say Jay McClement, I'd say it's time to pull the plug on this junk contract we got suckered into taking on last year.

Now assuming Kulemin gifts wraps him the puck when taking defensive zone draws, Grabovski seems to be the only player working in the offensive zone. If he was just a mere passenger, taking stupid shots, we'd be expecting a much higher shooting % from Kulemin's side.

I never stated Kulemin is more dangerous offensively...he's actually scored 30 goals before...and produced better than Grabo this year while being a more versatile player...but I guess it is a toss up.

Point is Kulemin is better all-round and had himself a good season after his bad one last year.

As I said, the team is more possession positive when Grabovski joins the ice. We all notice that when he's playing, and thus many attack him for not doing much with the puck. However that is expected when starting in the defensive zone against the top producers.

If he can't find ways to penetrate "offensive specialists" defence and if he can't find ways to prevent them from scoring on us, he should be removed immediately in favor of a center who can do either of these better.

 

[nuck]

So in other words, against "offensive specialists", Grabo can't center a line since he can't score, and drags others down with him, the 50% of the time he gets possession, and the 50% of the time the other team has it, they are scoring on him and running circles around him, tiring him out.
And despite all that power on the wings, Grabo still could not be effective.

Wonder all you like, it doesn't mean anything. Kulemin is the Leafs best defensive forward who is a better all-round player, and on a better contract than Grabovski.

I said Grabovski played poorly against Boston's second line. He didn't even go head to head against their first line...and did not go against Chara and Boychuk.

He had 2 assists and 7 games!

Kulemin is a far better winger than Grabovski is a center and actually contributes in meaningful ways. Grabovski on the other hand, is a black hole offensively, and very underwhelming as a center. Grabovski had a poor year, while Kulemin had a very good one. Kulemin gets paid less than half Grabo's salary as well.

The same logic is applied to Kulemin-Grabovski in which case Kulemin comes out on top quite easily in my opinion.

A huge part of being a center is the ability to play in all areas of the ice. With Kadri, Bozak, and possibly another top 6 center in the fold, that is by default the role Grabovski will have to take on. And since he isn't suited to it as well as say Jay McClement, I'd say it's time to pull the plug on this junk contract we got suckered into taking on last year.

I never stated Kulemin is more dangerous offensively...he's actually scored 30 goals before...and produced better than Grabo this year while being a more versatile player...but I guess it is a toss up.

Point is Kulemin is better all-round and had himself a good season after his bad one last year.

Without getting into the Corsi discussion, what were your criteria for determining Kulemin had a very good year? His production was pretty close to last season, around a 32 point pace. He played primarily with Grabovski but also got Kadri time which probably accounts for the difference in his plus minus from Grabo. When they weren't line matching and pretending he and Grabovski were a shut down line, he scored only two goals in his 24 road games, an even worse pace than his 7 goal output of last year. One can't justify Grabovskis home ice ineffectiveness, which I think makes it obvious he can't be used that way next year, but you seem to be placing the ineffectiveness of that line on one guy. He was only 1/3 of that "shut down line". On the road, where they weren't line matching, Grabo outscored Kulemin 7-2 so if MG is a black hole, what then is NK?

Kulemin hits more, and is better defensively but it is ridiculous to say any other player drags him down offensively. He had only 1 assist himself in 7 playoff games. Not to say he didn't do some useful things, because he is probably notout of place as a 3rd line guy, but I did not really see the good year that you did.

That line's failure to produce anything is on RC for using players in the wrong roles. If he put Kessel in as his main PK and the guy sucked, should he leave him in that spot for the entire season? And then since he sucks on the PK, does he then suck as a player? The Grabo thing was clear by mid season, but he just kept at it.

Grabo had a brutal year, and Kulemin's wasn't great either. At least we agree that MG is overpaid.

 

[leafspring*]

Kessel can retire a leaf and that would suit me just fine.These articles coming out from the star from this clown whatever his name is and Cox are annoying.Cox at least had a valid conclusion as to why it could be a possibility to trade Phil.

This jack-a$$ is just looking for someone to take some spite out on lol.

 

[hullsy47]

Kessel can retire a leaf and that would suit me just fine.These articles coming out from the star from this clown whatever his name is and Cox are annoying.Cox at least had a valid conclusion as to why it could be a possibility to trade Phil.

This jack-a$$ is just looking for someone to take some spite out on lol.

these guys dont just make stuff up .....give your head a shake ,keseel is gonna try to get 8 million a year ,is he worth it ? of course if there is gtrade out there u do it and u do it soon ,before some lame NMC comes into play,,,,,,
losing kessel for nothing is the very worst scenario ,so he better decide if hes giving a hometown discount or not .......6.5 x 5 yrs period.......thats a milion more than ,lupul our next captain

 

[nuck]

these guys dont just make stuff up .....give your head a shake ,keseel is gonna try to get 8 million a year ,is he worth it ? of course if there is gtrade out there u do it and u do it soon ,before some lame NMC comes into play,,,,,,
losing kessel for nothing is the very worst scenario ,so he better decide if hes giving a hometown discount or not .......6.5 x 5 yrs period.......thats a milion more than ,lupul our next captain

The market justifies him making 7+. If they want to add a UFA with his skill set, it's minimum 7.5 it seems. I have said before I that prefer Getz and Perry because of their physical games but PK produces and in spite of his softness he performed against the Bruins. People said he would have a hard time scoring at the same rate under Carlyle but his ppg continues to creep up. With Getzlaf and Perry over $8 million, anything close to $7.5 seems like a bargain. Sundin was making more than $6 million per season eight years ago. I don't think they will have much luck trying to lock up their marquee guy for that sort of money today.

It would be nice if he would scale himself off of Lupul, but Joffrey had only one big season and a history of injuries on his resume. Kessel has been durable with 5 solid offensive seasons in a row. I don't see how they could pay him less than Semin.

 

[Stephen]

Updated:

Phil Kessel 7 GP 4 G 2 A 6 PTS vs the 2013 Playoff Bruins

Sidney Crosby 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
Evgeni Malkin 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
Kris Letang 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
James Neal 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
Jarome Iginla 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
Chris Kunitz 4 GP 1 G 0 A 1 PTS
Pascal Dupuis 4 GP 0 G 1 A 1 PTS
Paul Martin 4 GP 0 G 2 A 2 PTS
----------------------------------

Combined 32 GP 1 G 3 A 4 PTS vs the 2013 Playoff Bruins

 

[Daisy Jane]

Updated:

Phil Kessel 7 GP 4 G 2 A 6 PTS vs the 2013 Playoff Bruins

Sidney Crosby 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
Evgeni Malkin 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
Kris Letang 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
James Neal 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
Jarome Iginla 4 GP 0 G 0 A 0 PTS
Chris Kunitz 4 GP 1 G 0 A 1 PTS
Pascal Dupuis 4 GP 0 G 1 A 1 PTS
Paul Martin 4 GP 0 G 2 A 2 PTS
----------------------------------

Combined 32 GP 1 G 3 A 4 PTS vs the 2013 Playoff Bruins

and it was Kessel who had zero even strength goals against the team to start the series that is just the most funniest thing.

 

[leafspring*]

these guys dont just make stuff up .....give your head a shake ,keseel is gonna try to get 8 million a year ,is he worth it ? of course if there is gtrade out there u do it and u do it soon ,before some lame NMC comes into play,,,,,,
losing kessel for nothing is the very worst scenario ,so he better decide if hes giving a hometown discount or not .......6.5 x 5 yrs period.......thats a milion more than ,lupul our next captain

They don't just make stuff up eh lol. Ever see that mayor ford video lol. These idiots make up everything that is not sourced imo. They hide behind confidentiality codes and Sh! t all the time.

Kessel is the best right winger in the game bar none. Give yer pillow a shake!

 

[Durkin67]

It's already statistically shown that Legit #1C's are built from the draft, excluding Joe Thornton who was traded from his Draft team. All other Elite/PPG #1C's have remained with their respected draft teams, and probably will until they are 35+ years old.

It would take a lot to get a #1C via trade, with kessel ultimately being a bargaining chip, but with a year left on his contract he doesn't have as much value to land a #1C.

Neither Doug Gilmour, nor Mats Sundin were drafted by the Leafs...

 

[Dreakmur]

It's applied as an individual statistic when it measures anything but.....

That's the same problem with CORSI.

I'm not saying +/- is a great stat. I'm just saying CORSI sucks too.

 

[JAMmer124]

Neither Doug Gilmour, nor Mats Sundin were drafted by the Leafs...

I'm assuming he meant currently, because the cap era has forced teams to draft a 1C, if they have one.

Team-by-team, for argument's sake:

Anaheim: Getzlaf (draft)
Boston: Bergeron (draft)
Buffalo: Hodgson? (Trade)
Calgary: Cammaleri? (Trade)
Carolina: Staal (draft)
Chicago: Toews (draft)
Colorado: Duchene/Stastny (both draft)
Columbus: Anisimov? (Trade)
Dallas: Benn (draft)
Detroit: Datsyuk (draft)
Edmonton: RNH (draft)
Florida: Weiss (draft)
LA: Kopitar (draft)
Minnesota: Koivu (draft)
Montreal: Plekanec (draft)
Nashville: Wilson? (Draft) fisher? (Trade)
New Jersey: Zajac (draft)
NYI: Tavares (draft)
NYR: Stepan (draft)
Ottawa: Spezza (draft)
Phoenix: Hanzal (draft)
Philadelphia: Giroux (draft)
Pittsburgh: Crosby (draft)
SJ: Thornton (trade)
St Louis: Backes (draft)
Tampa: Stamkos (draft)
Toronto: Bozak (UFA)
Vancouver: Sedin (draft)
Washington: Backstrom (draft)
Winnipeg: Antropov (UFA)

Final tally: 4(maybe 5) Trades, 2 UFAs, and 24(maybe 23) drafted.

 

[Morbo]

Leafs should be emulating the Bruins and not the Pens when assembling their team. IMO

ok, we'd need to find a goalie capable of putting up .930-.940+ save percentages though...

 

[Morbo]

It's true, and one of the biggest reasons I would like to keep Kessel around for the long-term....at a reasonable price tag of course.

Yeah, but "reasonable" to you and reality are two different things, which of course you know perfectly well as you're setting yourself up to complain when Kessel does get signed. You're not getting one of the elite wingers in the game at age 25 signed for 6.5 million. It's not going to happen. If it did it would be the best contract this team has signed in a long long time but I doubt Phil is going to leave that kind of cash on the table.

It will cost between 7 and 8. If his 13/14 is anything like the previous two seasons, or better if the Leafs can upgrade on his centre, expect it closer to 8.

I'd like to hear what would be a better use of the money, if you don't think Kessel is worth it. Two lesser players that add up to the same dough? Like who?

 

[The Magic Man]

I'm assuming he meant currently, because the cap era has forced teams to draft a 1C, if they have one.

Team-by-team, for argument's sake:

Anaheim: Getzlaf (draft)
Boston: Bergeron (draft)
Buffalo: Hodgson? (Trade)
Calgary: Cammaleri? (Trade)
Carolina: Staal (draft)
Chicago: Toews (draft)
Colorado: Duchene/Stastny (both draft)
Columbus: Anisimov? (Trade)
Dallas: Benn (draft)
Detroit: Datsyuk (draft)
Edmonton: RNH (draft)
Florida: Weiss (draft)
LA: Kopitar (draft)
Minnesota: Koivu (draft)
Montreal: Plekanec (draft)
Nashville: Wilson? (Draft) fisher? (Trade)
New Jersey: Zajac (draft)
NYI: Tavares (draft)
NYR: Stepan (draft)
Ottawa: Spezza (draft)
Phoenix: Hanzal (draft)
Philadelphia: Giroux (draft)
Pittsburgh: Crosby (draft)
SJ: Thornton (trade)
St Louis: Backes (draft)
Tampa: Stamkos (draft)
Toronto: Bozak (UFA)
Vancouver: Sedin (draft)
Washington: Backstrom (draft)
Winnipeg: Antropov (UFA)

Final tally: 4(maybe 5) Trades, 2 UFAs, and 24(maybe 23) drafted.

If your gonna count lack-lustre players like Cammeleri, Antropov, Stepan, Wilson, Fischer, Weiss, and Anisimov as 1C's, why don't we list our best center, Kadri. Who was drafted, by us.

 

[Duffman955]

That's the same problem with CORSI.

I'm not saying +/- is a great stat. I'm just saying CORSI sucks too.

Yup both are crappy stats by themselves. A lot further analysis is required to understand what exactly is going on.

 

[jughead42*]

The Leafs shouldn't trade Kessel unless the return is ridiculous. I don't trade him just because he'll be a UFA soon and the cap is going down, that's absurd. If somebody truly special like Pietrangelo is on the table I would consider it, but otherwise I work to get his name on a reasonable contract to keep him around. The Leafs will be able to offer him one more year in term than any other team, and he seems to be happy here playing his best hockey. He should take a bit of a discount to stay here like most good players on good teams do. If we trade him it has to be something downright amazing in my opinion.

 

[egd27]

Neither Doug Gilmour, nor Mats Sundin were drafted by the Leafs...

Gretzky wasn't drafted by the Kings either. Just sayin.

 

[SteveV*]

Hilarious, the "don't think for a moment Nonis isn't thinking hard about the possibility", as though he has some scoop. Don't think for moment I take you seriously! What a dumb column, but hardly surprising.

 

[TeamBester]

After almost two full seasons of a PPG production, his commitment to be better in all three zones, and his playoff this year. People still entertain this idea.

 

[The_Chosen_One]

My original point was not that Perry is great defensively, nor did I ever say that. I was simply stating that Perry is a better all-round player than Kessel and that is why he commanded the contract he did. At least Perry will check and put in a solid effort to maintaining puck possession. Kessel relies on others to do the lifting and get him the puck.

Perry isn't impressive defensively, period. You're mixing him up with Giroux or Datsyuk. He chokes against top competition as we saw against Chicago.

Again, the original point was not if Datsyuk is better than Perry.. you're wandering off the point. Datsyuk is one of the best in the game, period. And like you said, it has a lot to do with what goes on outside his point totals, since he is a supremely talented puck possessor.

Exactly. Grabovski is sort of like a poor man's version.

Crosby is far more gritty than Kessel...checks...takes the abuse to make his plays...blocks shots with his face....

Not as nasty as Perry. I would place Kessel at a similar category as Patrick Kane or Teemu Selanne in terms of physicality. There is nothing wrong with that.

Ask anyone. The better all-round player is Corey Perry and until Phil wins a Rocket Richard, Hart, and a Cup, I don't think he really has anything on him.

Once Kessel has a team as stacked as the Ducks, we'll see him win awards. The Hart Trophy tends to awarded to the highest producer. Perry is not going to repeat that without that talent around him.

See, in the game of hockey...chances are, you won't have the puck all the time...so that necessitates the need to change gameplans to try to reclaim the puck. We call this defence.

No ****, and Kessel is a possession positive player.

are the two aspects of even strength play that are to be analyzed for players. Kessel has a very bipolar impact even strength. He'll produce when given the opportunity, but he also coasts around, surrenders puck possession a lot (especially when played physically), half ***** his forechecks, and is noticeably absent in most physical battles in all areas of the ice...and this results in his line coughing up MORE goals than they can create.

Tavares line coughs up more goals than they can create. What the hell is your point? You're using the +/- metric, when it is clear that Kessel doesn't need to be physical in order to maintain puck possession. He uses his speed and his ability to make nifty tape-to-tape passes to get to this linemates. If Bozak was able to finish his great passes, that line would be scoring a lot more positively affecting his +/-.

So while he scores against "shutdown lines" (I'll go along with your Google stats for a second), he is getting scored on by those very same lines, to a greater degree.

Yes, against the Bergeron lines, etc. The same line that was choked the Crosby line.

Now why are "shutdown lines" scoring against Kessel's line? If they are scoring with as much ease as the Kessel line, I'd hardly call that being shutdown, I'd call that being outplayed by an altogether superior line of players...since after all (going back to the equation)...your line is only as good as your ability to both get chances and preventing them. You can't just ignore 50% of the job and expect success.

That's what we're starting to notice in the playoffs. The lines tasked to neutralizing offence are working very effectively. Bergeron line for instance is like a top scoring line, but is

Right...so while he was a rookie winning the Cup with Perry...sheltered. Fast forward and they are the number one line...sheltered. According to what again? Oh right,

Yes, sheltered as in offensively-utilized. Perry is an offensively player during the ES.

I didn't ever see him shutting down the top lines like Datsyuk AND Zetterberg. He is utilized much like Karlsson and that is within the offensive zone.

The Leafs as a team had the 30th place CORSI in the entire league...they finished 9th in the standings.

We weren't on a whole a possession-positive team and tend to score on the counter-attack.

Again, you can say Kessel is a better checking and defensive player than Perry all you want.

He isn't. However the comparison is quite irrelevant. Perry is not making that money because of his defensive prowess. That aspect of his game isn't that impressive at all.

Kessel will get $7.5-8.5 million, period

Doesn't make it real. Ask anyone...it will be a lopsided result in favor of Corey Perry.

Meh. Appeal to authority.

See now you're blurring the argument. When you start in the defensive zone there is about a 50% chance you will regain possession. And if you lose, it is still even strength and possession can be reclaimed, assuming the players are fit for the role (in which case Grabovski isn't).

Ridiculous. If you're up against the possession-positive top scoring lines, you're probably not going to have a 50% chance. Have you ever seen how will Crosby works behind the net for instance? In addition, those top lines tend to be great on the draws as well.

So in other words, against "offensive specialists", Grabo can't center a line since he can't score, and drags others down with him, the 50% of the time he gets possession, and the 50% of the time the other team has it, they are scoring on him and running circles around him, tiring him out.

He is ending more in the offensive zone despite having LESS offensive zone starts. In other words, he is a pretty possession player. In addition

Any model that places Tyler Seguin above Patrice Bergeron, nevermind being equal or even close, is not to be trusted. According to CORSI, Tyler Seguin is a better player than Patrice Bergeron lol

Patrice Bergeron QoC weight by their relative CORSI is amongst the highest on the Bruins. We expect lower change in CORSI than Seguin, because Bergeron was up against the top, possession positive, scoring lines. His relative CORSI was the highest amongst his linemate suggesting that he is the possession monster on that line. You can't just use CORSI differentials on their own.

How can a faulty set of inputs (Shots Attempted FOR - Shots Attempted AGAINST) yield an un-faulty set of outputs (CORSI)? This defies natural law.

It provides a much bigger sample than +/-. It's a lot more accurate.

Because you realize it is an equation.. (SFA - SFS =

Of course.

If you put garbage in, you are going to get garbage out...and this is something that is a giveaway of someone's novice grasp of math and statistics. If the Left Side of the equation is invalid as a broad reaching analytical tool for hockey...then so too will the Right Side of the equation.

To suggest that is invalid is pretty sketchy. The right side of the equation (CORSI) can be used. It's inputs ( that is the difference between shots for and shots against) can be used.

It aggregates meaningless information...this is why it is not reliable or a valid way to rank players, lines, and teams.

It is a lot better than your irr

Garbage in, garbage out.

To incorporate shot selection would suggest that Grabovski was in a more favorable environment than say Kulemin. He clearly wasn't.

Are you kidding me? Shot selection is everything in hockey. If a 5-man unit is pushing play to the outside, only letting the goalie handle perimeter shots and in turn high percentage saves, they should be rewarded for that, not punished based on a garbage stat like Shots Attempted AGAINST...and conversely the forwards shouldn't be rewarded for being unable to get net presence or a cycle game going that a garbage stat like Shots Attempted FOR accounts.

Of course, but what is suggesting that Grabovski is getting those type of minutes? How does a team force high perimeter shots when Grabovski largely starts in the defensive zone? Yes, a 5-man unit can push play to the outside, but we're expecting the defending team to be a lot more vulnerable. Grabs seems to handle those roles well.

It's all quite cute to me, this advanced stats stuff, but nothing more than a fad right now. The real stats, you know, meaningful ones? Well they are being used by real life NHL teams. Not this crap. That's why it's a free internet stat...and why people get paid to work for a scouting staff or agency.

Most real life NHL teams would re-sign Kessel and Phaneuf. You're going to be very upset when our core remains exactly the same this coming season.

If Dion Phaneuf stumbles at the blue line, and let's a player walk in for a breakaway goal...everyone is punished the same. There is no way to statistically prove why that shot was surrendered, where possession was lost, how possession was lost, by whom, and what could have been done to prevent it.

Yes, we are dealing with proxy figures. However, assuming that Phaneuf is an ultimate source of bonehead plays, we'd expect his CORSI numbers to drastically decrease when he's on ice. Interestingly, his CORSI difference is quite low in comparison to the fact that he consumes the most defensive minutes on the team.

Well it turns out that is not a practical way to INDIVIDUALLY analyze a player when you paint the whole unit with the same broad stroke. Could it gauge possession for a line? In a very limited way. Can it gauge the quality of the shift for the line? Again, limited. Can it be used to rank players? Absolutely not.

It's a lot better than HF board assessments which seem to be always wrong. We should be a lottery-contending team rather than taking Boston to game seven.

So goaltending is not constant. They are robots, they are people, and they go through peaks and valleys just as any individual player does. They can be on one night, off the other.

Of course not, but their performance will average out over time.

For everyone. Not proportionally for the individual responsible for surrendering puck possession to the forechecker. And the forechecker is not rewarded for taking it back, under CORSI.

Correct. However by increasing the sample size, and play, we can gauge how Grabovski plays.

And despite all that power on the wings, Grabo still could not be effective.

He's not a shut down player. Interestingly, Kulemin didn't perform offensively either. We're probably going to be seeing changes in this area. During the playoffs, both Grabovski and Kulemin were depended upon less and we saw JVR used instead.

No it wouldn't. He just took a shot so his CORSI increases as well as any player on the ice...doesn't matter if a defenceman is tying his skate up in the other end, skating back to the bench, or anything..and again...shot quality is ignored too.

Grabovski had a pretty respectable 11% shooting percentage. You're exaggerating his poor shots attempted, because it's not like he was drastically out shooting Kulemin.

Wonder all you like, it doesn't mean anything. Kulemin is the Leafs best defensive forward who is a better all-round player, and on a better contract than Grabovski.

He is our best defensive forward next to Jay McClement. However Grabovski is a much more creative player offensively. In the NHL, we reward offensive players.

I said Grabovski played poorly against Boston's second line. He didn't even go head to head against their first line...and did not go against Chara and Boychuk.

He went up Boston's first like of Krecji. The Bergeron line is the second line who is up against Kessel's line.

He had 2 assists and 7 games!

Equivalent to the man who is earning the same as Crosby: Corey Perry.

Now as a pusher of stats, you'd think you would understand that this is not a 50 point, 20 goal kind of performance. He didn't play good at all, and the only reason anyone noticed him was because Boston was steamrolling him every chance they had.

He didn't play good at all and yet was utilized by the cup-winning coach. During the playoffs, he had amongst the highest TOI, in fact.

Holy crap, it's just a whistle. How many whistles are there per period? Maybe 8-12 and that would included stoppages for penalties which lead to automatic offensive zone starts for the team with the man-advantage. There's 20 minutes of hockey to be played between these whistles so these faceoff starts are very limited in their usefulness and meaning.

8-12 whistles per period is pretty significant. It's not

No, once again, you're simply wrong. It seems you are very confused about stats, in general.

If Grabovski takes a low percentage spam shot and the goalie saves it, he is rewarded with a positive CORSI and an offensive zone finish, and the same goes for whoever else was on the ice.

He's rewarded the same as if Phil Kessel snipes a shot for a goal.

That spam shot is par value with an incredible goal.

You're the one confused, because I totally disagree with the idea that he produces spam shots. His shooting percentage was very respectable, much more than Kulemin. Both were shooting at very similar rates. The was a 7 shot difference between the Grabs and Kulemin, while during the playoffs he made some pretty decent shots.

Yes I watch hockey. I am also fluent in English and actually understand hockey and math/stats. How about you?

I didn't specialize statistics, but I have spent years using mathematics as an engineer. Regardless, I will these metrics when it's obvious that we can't have an honest discussion. It is obvious that Carlyle views Grabovski and Phaneuf as effective thanks to their ice time.

We're going to see this core remain the same. It won't see much changes outside of a partner for Phaneuf and, if the rumours are correct, Clarkson. I am looking forward to see this core perform in the following season. On the other hand, you'll probably disappear during the regular season and re-appear during the off-season with the negative posts.

I have already debunked the notion that you can use CORSI to analyze players independently. So I don't know why you keep repeating the same senseless argument over and over.

CORSI can be used as a proxy, and it's a better alternative than emotional drivel from your end.

Kulemin is a far better winger than Grabovski is a center and actually contributes in meaningful ways. Grabovski on the other hand, is a black hole offensively, and very underwhelming as a center. Grabovski had a poor year, while Kulemin had a very good one. Kulemin gets paid less than half Grabo's salary as well.

I guess those who awarded both their contracts have no clue about hockey at all. Remember, this team being iced is essentially Burke's team.

Weird because I see that superior defensive zone play carried right on over to the opponent's end with forechecking and a cycle game. Kulemin has much more versatility to offer the Leafs than Grabovski.

And I see Grabovski's maintaining possession against the top lines. He's being rewarded good minutes for it, and we were able to take the game against Boston to seven.

If Darren Helm was producing more points while playing a better all-round game than Datsyuk and Zetterberg (not possible), then he would be deemed to be superior.

The same logic is applied to Kulemin-Grabovski in which case Kulemin comes out on top quite easily in my opinion.

If we look at previous seasons, Grabovski has produced a lot more points than Kulemin. The previous season was an aberration considering that Grabovski was never given any opportunity on the depth scoring line (unlike Kulemin).

A huge part of being a center is the ability to play in all areas of the ice. With Kadri, Bozak, and possibly another top 6 center in the fold, that is by default the role Grabovski will have to take on. And since he isn't suited to it as well as say Jay McClement, I'd say it's time to pull the plug on this junk contract we got suckered into taking on last year.

Grabovski did a pretty great job in his season prior to the last one.

I never stated Kulemin is more dangerous offensively...he's actually scored 30 goals before...and produced better than Grabo this year while being a more versatile player...but I guess it is a toss up.

Grabs outperformed Kulemin in his previous seasons. He produced 29 goals, and 58 points, and was awarded $5.5 million by a GM who has won the cup.

Point is Kulemin is better all-round and had himself a good season after his bad one last year.

According to you? I feel that both had good seasons especially Grabovski during the playoff run. Do remember that he is producing

If he can't find ways to penetrate "offensive specialists" defence and if he can't find ways to prevent them from scoring on us, he should be removed immediately in favor of a center who can do either of these better.

Kulemin seems to be struggling utilized in that manner. He only started producing offensively when placed on Kadri's sheltered line.

 

[Dreakmur]

CORSI can be used as a proxy, and it's a better alternative than emotional drivel from your end.

CORSI sucks. You shouldn't use it for anything.

 

[Bomber0104]

CORSI sucks. You shouldn't use it for anything.

Problem with this guy is if you tell him CORSI sucks, he will just reply with a post full of more CORSI-sourced garbage.

If you then explain why CORSI sucks and is absolutely useless in the grand scheme of things, that will be ignored and instead more CORSI-sourced garbage will be hurled at you.

I mean just read all the lawyer-dodging the post....pretty obvious there's no good faith to debate with integrity.

Me: Why is a Grabovski spam shot from the top of the circle valued the same as a snipe goal from Phil Kessel under CORSI?

TCO: Grabovski doesn't spam shots...

I mean, really, I realize this isn't a MENSA meeting but I expected more than this...especially from someone with such unbridled faith in an invalid model.