Maple Leafs hire Kyle Dubas

[Bear of Bad News]

He's the Theo Epstein of hockey, by some accounts.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=457687

http://www.thehockeynews.com/articl...-as-assistant-GM-Poulin-and-Loiselle-out.html

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/1...assistant-gm-fire-dave-poulin-claude-loiselle

Click to read more...

 

[GKJ]

Can't wait for the hot takes on this guy when the Leafs are still terrible this year.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Shanahan is slowly ousting the old guard. Up next is Carlyle,Nonis and hopefully a revamped scouting staff. This is a good thing for the organization IMO.

 

[Badger Mayhew*]

Can't wait for the hot takes on this guy when the Leafs are still terrible this year.

I really don't see how this adds to the discussion at all?

On topic, it's a fantastic hiring by the Leafs. His interview regarding Jared McCann is quite insightful. The way in which he applies underlying hockey metrics to his players in order to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses is unlike anything I've seen from any other hockey executive before.

http://canucksarmy.com/2014/7/7/get-to-know-a-prospect-jared-mccann-not-jared-mccan-t

 

[A1LeafNation]

Shanahan is slowly ousting the old guard. Up next is Carlyle,Nonis and hopefully a revamped scouting staff. This is a good thing for the organization IMO.

We might not be the best, but I like our scouting staff. Don't care for the management/coaching though.

 

[GKJ]

I really don't see how this adds to the discussion at all?

Imagine Steve Simmons writing about Big Corsi, and how he's a hockey man who realized the value of advanced numbers as if this was never the case with the casual advanced numbers observer.


This is as big of the Leafs organization as it will be all the conniptions most of the local Toronto media will have.


Win/win for everyone

 

[spintheblackcircle]

He's the Theo Epstein of hockey, by some accounts.

Since Epstein took over the Cubs have been in last every year. So....hope Leaf fans are patient.

heh

 

[Fozz]

He's the Theo Epstein of hockey, by some accounts.

If only the Maple Leafs had the equivalent of Zito, Mulder and Hudson in their existing lineup to greatly help give him a lot of undeserved credit.

 

[McMatthews]

If only the Maple Leafs had the equivalent of Zito, Mulder and Hudson in their existing lineup to greatly help give him a lot of undeserved credit.

When did Epstein have Zito, Mulder or Hudson?

 

[Epictetus]

I just hope he gets the opportunity to do his thing without much interference from the dinosaurs still left in the organization or in the media.

 

[Tyler Biggs*]

An awful lot of people who didn't check this kid's track record before commenting. Loved in the Soo and is referred to as the "Billy Beane" of hockey. An awesome hire by Shanny.

 

[Hivemind]

If only the Maple Leafs had the equivalent of Zito, Mulder and Hudson in their existing lineup to greatly help give him a lot of undeserved credit.

Theo Epstein and Billy Beane are two different people. Epstein is the President of Baseball Ops of the Cubs and was the GM of the Red Sox from 2002-2011. The similarity is that Epstein became the youngest GM in MLB history at age 28 in 2002.

 

[Fozz]

Theo Epstein and Billy Beane are two different people. Epstein is the President of Baseball Ops of the Cubs and was the GM of the Red Sox from 2002-2011. The similarity is that Epstein became the youngest GM in MLB history at age 28 in 2002.

Confused him with Paul DePodesta. Shows how much I care about baseball post Expos.

 

[aleshemsky83]

I guess the main question I have is where does he get the stats from in Junior and bantam. How can he do advanced analysis with goals points and these other basic stats

 

[Mathletic]

I guess the main question I have is where does he get the stats from in Junior and bantam. How can he do advanced analysis with goals points and these other basic stats

There's already quite a bit that can be done with game sheets. That said, he's mentioned they gathered their own data with the Greyhounds.

 

[Bomber0104]

I guess the main question I have is where does he get the stats from in Junior and bantam. How can he do advanced analysis with goals points and these other basic stats

He likely hired a team of staff to track game events and sequences live and by watching tape.

 

[aleshemsky83]

There's already quite a bit that can be done with game sheets. That said, he's mentioned they gathered their own data with the Greyhounds.

He likely hired a team of staff to track game events and sequences live and by watching tape.

In regards to the second part, I suspected that, but the data is likely extremely limited since a junior hockey club obviously doesn't have unlimited funds.

The first part, I don't know about that, especially at the level these guys would be scouting. Junior doesnt even keep ice time does it, then theres bantam, goals assists and points is as far as it goes a lot of times.

I dont have an issue with the hiring, as I'm totally on board with money puck. I just question how much they could have possibly implemented moneypuck

 

[Bomber0104]

In regards to the second part, I suspected that, but the data is likely extremely limited since a junior hockey club obviously doesn't have unlimited funds.

The first part, I don't know about that, especially at the level these guys would be scouting. Junior doesnt even keep ice time does it, then theres bantam, goals assists and points is as far as it goes a lot of times.

I dont have an issue with the hiring, as I'm totally on board with money puck. I just question how much they could have possibly implemented moneypuck

You can gather a wealth of data if you know what you're looking for. After all, the best stats aren't the one's the NHL publicly releases; they're the ones that scouts and statisticians create and keep in-house.

For example, the NHL doesn't have a stat for a successful forecheck now do they? That's a pretty significant event in the game of hockey. No such stat is publicly tabulated. I'd bet you any sum of money that all NHL teams keep track of that.

 

[Mathletic]

In regards to the second part, I suspected that, but the data is likely extremely limited since a junior hockey club obviously doesn't have unlimited funds.

The first part, I don't know about that, especially at the level these guys would be scouting. Junior doesnt even keep ice time does it, then theres bantam, goals assists and points is as far as it goes a lot of times.

I dont have an issue with the hiring, as I'm totally on board with money puck. I just question how much they could have possibly implemented moneypuck

there's all sorts of equations and models you can build to estimate TOI. For instance, the simple proportion of on-ice GF+GA of team's GF+GA is actually a pretty good estimate of TOI. Besides, SSM did it by hand for their team.

 

[Beatle17]

You can gather a wealth of data if you know what you're looking for. After all, the best stats aren't the one's the NHL publicly releases; they're the ones that scouts and statisticians create and keep in-house.

For example, the NHL doesn't have a stat for a successful forecheck now do they? That's a pretty significant event in the game of hockey. No such stat is publicly tabulated. I'd bet you any sum of money that all NHL teams keep track of that.

Describe a successful forecheck and what each player on the ice plays in it. I am sure nobody can say for sure what it is, so it becomes another stat after the fact, which does nothing to decide if player X performs it better than player Y.

 

[Random Forest]

I've been pleasantly surprised by the general consensus that this is a great hire. I was expecting more push back from the loudmouths who believe a professional playing career is a prerequisite for managerial success.

It's awesome to see intelligent minds make it in the business based on their managerial knowledge and expertise rather than distinguished playing resumes. Hopefully the future will bring more guys like Stan Bowman and Kyle Dubas.

Describe a successful forecheck and what each player on the ice plays in it. I am sure nobody can say for sure what it is, so it becomes another stat after the fact, which does nothing to decide if player X performs it better than player Y.

While no statistic is 100% perfect, you can be sure teams are tracking dump ins, carry ins, puck retrievals, etc. "Successful forecheck" is very gray, but you can certainly keep tabs on how often a player's dump in leads to a retrieval in possession and which players are on the ice for more successful retrievals, for example.

 

[Micklebot]

...

While no statistic is 100% perfect, you can be sure teams are tracking dump ins, carry ins, puck retrievals, etc. "Successful forecheck" is very gray, but you can certainly keep tabs on how often a player's dump in leads to a retrieval in possession and which players are on the ice for more successful retrievals, for example.

I think I read a interview with Dubas where he sighted stats on succesful zone entries (carried) vs dumped in. Forecheck might not be a stat tracked as it's pretty subjective, but I know they track zone entries and exits.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I think I read a interview with Dubas where he sighted stats on succesful zone entries (carried) vs dumped in. Forecheck might not be a stat tracked as it's pretty subjective, but I know they track zone entries and exits.

I agree. And I'd argue something as subjective as forechecking will be tracked different ways by different teams; I could easily see a team attempting to quantify forechecking by tracking what events take place after a dump/carry-in; who retreived the puck, hits, possession/shots, etc. and by what players.

 

[Random Forest]

I think I read a interview with Dubas where he sighted stats on succesful zone entries (carried) vs dumped in. Forecheck might not be a stat tracked as it's pretty subjective, but I know they track zone entries and exits.

For sure. Ron Hextall spoke to Flyers fans about tracking zone entries, in particular:

I like analytics, it intrigues me, I think it is where we’re going, but I think it’s a piece…if I were sit here and you I were going to make a trade based on analytics, not a chance…would I like look at some as a team that we can do better? Absolutely….one thing I’ll share is zone entrance…a top team…I was discussing this with a guy….a top team enters the zone 93 times a game, our average last year was 73…so I mean they were 92 we were 73…. That’s an area where we’ve got to get to bottom of it and find out why….when you actually start showing players this type of data, there’s a reason why we entered the zone 73 times, we’ve got to make it a goal this year to get into the offensive zone…83 times…and that’s data, it doesn’t lie, it’s a fact…rather than coaches saying, you know, ‘we gotta get the puck’, we gotta create more turnovers, get the puck up ice and get going…you gotta do that more to become a better team….all of a sudden you say a top team does it 92 times and we’re doing it 73…we gotta get better, it’s data, it’s fact…so those are the types of ways you can use analytics, but you’ve got to be really careful, hockey’s not a static game like baseball, you’ve gotta be careful how much you put into it…there’s no question in my mind that it does have a place, and it can assist you, you just can’t use it as your top job

That's pretty interesting stuff. The Flyers blogger-verse is full of guys tracking zone entries against, too. Some valuable information has been gleaned from that (Andy MacDonald sucks at defending the blueline; Coburn is awesome at it).

There are plenty of ways these stats can be practically applied to reinvent existing systems.

 

[The Mighty Duck Man]

In regards to the second part, I suspected that, but the data is likely extremely limited since a junior hockey club obviously doesn't have unlimited funds.

The first part, I don't know about that, especially at the level these guys would be scouting. Junior doesnt even keep ice time does it, then theres bantam, goals assists and points is as far as it goes a lot of times.

I dont have an issue with the hiring, as I'm totally on board with money puck. I just question how much they could have possibly implemented moneypuck

Don't say moneypuck. Don't ever say moneypuck.


Anyways, interesting addition to the Leafs FO. Sounds like he has a good mind for the game, but I hate when people say a GM is the Beane or Epstein of another sport, especially before they've done too much. I don't think his age will be a huge hindrance, eapecially in his current role, but it probably will lead to a lot of people putting unrealistic expectations on the kid. I'm guessing his first GM job won't go so well because of it.