Man-games lost for every team (playoff implications?)

[Osprey]

Edit: Jump to the post bumping this thread after the 1st round of the playoffs: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2207943&p=131439165

I found this pretty interesting.

(Data comes from mangameslost.com)

Things that jump out at me:

* How does Washington have fewer than 50 man-games lost? Might that be a concern if/when adversity strikes in the playoffs?

* The 9 healthiest teams are all in the playoffs.

* Pittsburgh looks very impressive, racking up the 4th-most wins despite sustaining the 10th-most man-games lost, at least twice as many man-games lost as the 3 teams with more wins than them and losing the greatest quality of players (represented by having the largest bubble on the chart).

* The New York Rangers also look impressive, racking up the 5th-most wins despite having man-games lost of just above average and losing quality players.

* Edmonton and and Anaheim both have 40 wins despite being the 4th- and 5th-most injured teams, respectively. That certainly looks bad on all of those teams who are out of the playoffs despite being a lot healthier.

One reason why I find this all interesting is that wins vs man-games lost could, perhaps, foreshadow how teams might handle adversity in the playoffs. Based on this, if I were a betting man, I'd be hesitant to bet on WSH, despite them leading the conference, and might put my money on PIT and NYR. I might also pick ANA over CHI and SJ, even if conventional wisdom might disagree. What do you think that the chart says or do you think that it's not very relevant to the playoffs?

Ah, I just found the same chart for the end of last season (well, one game shy, as some teams are missing 1 win and LA still has the division lead):

(Data comes from mangameslost.com)

Immediately, I notice that 3 of the 4 teams that went on to make it to the Conference Finals--PIT, TBL and STL--had above-average man-games lost and above-average wins in the regular season. If I had seen that chart a year ago, I would've been tempted to put my money on those 3 teams (FLA, I would've been hesitant on because of lack of playoff experience, same as EDM this year), and I would've made out very nicely. So, perhaps there is some correlation between successfully handling adversity in the regular season and going far in the playoffs. What do you think?

Click to read more...

 

[DJJones]

Calgary's defense has been exceptionally lucky this year

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

geez TO was injured last year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

When the Penguins are healthy, I don't think there's a team that can compete with them. That's just the issue though, they're never healthy. I'd bet on someone getting diagnosed with rabies on the Penguins before I'd bet on the team being entirely healthy for a cup run..

I'm surprised Washington has been as healthy as they have been. That seems ridiculously lucky at this point, I don't know how you can manage to go through a full season with your top guys like Backstrom, Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, Oshie, Carlson, Holtby, Alzner and Niskanen only missing 22 games combined. Oshie himself makes up 13 of those 22 games.

 

[syz]

Edmonton's had good luck this year when it comes to the top half of their roster. A lot of man games lost have been bottom six forwards and bottom pairing D, which they have the depth to fill from the AHL.

Most significant injuries have been guys like Pouliot, Pitlick, Russell, and Nurse. A bit different than last year when they were without McDavid and Klefbom for most of the year.

 

[Mikeshane]

Anaheim practically benefited from their injuries this year, they lost relatively unimportant players that gave them badly needed cap space relief. Their team would be worse if Despres, Stoner and Thompson were healthy all year counting against the cap.

 

[Jumptheshark]

geez TO was injured last year.

That number included 4 players that were done for the 3 were done when traded for. So that number lies a bit.

Oiler number incluede ference

 

[Comely]

That number seems low for Ottawa. I'm guessing they aren't counting MacArthur, who was cleared to play this year before camp, and Anderson, who technically wasn't injured but the affect was the same.

 

[Pizza the Hutt]

Man games is a pretty vague metric without knowing the quality of the players lost. But maybe I don't understand the meaning of the bubble size?

 

[Peat]

I knew people joked about the Pens injury curse but didn't realise quite how real it is. Ugly stuff, experience of coping with adversity only gets you so far if all the tools are broken!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Immediately, I notice that 3 of the 4 Conference Finals teams--PIT, TBL and STL--had above average man-games lost and above-average wins in the regular season. If I had seen that chart a year ago, I would've been tempted to put my money on those 3 teams (FLA, I would've been hesitant on because of lack of playoff experience, same as EDM this year), and I would've made out very handsomely. So, perhaps there is some correlation between successfully handling adversity in the regular season and going far in the playoffs. What do you think?

I think that's a pretty common assertion, though, is it not? That if a team can weather a storm (of any kind really--doesn't just have to be injuries) during the season and come out well, that you probably won't want anything to do with them in the playoffs?

I mean, the injury visual sure helps that assertion along, I'm not arguing with you in that respect. But I'm not sure I agree with the converse, that a team like Washington hitting some injury adversity will flatline

 

[Osprey]

Man games is a pretty vague metric without knowing the quality of the players lost. But maybe I don't understand the meaning of the bubble size?

In the image for last season, it says at the top that the size of the bubble reflects the quality of players lost, so large bubbles mean high quality players were lost. The image for this season changes the language to "points lost due to injured players," but I imagine that it amounts to the same thing, since quality of players lost and points lost are surely proportional (i.e. better players being injured = more points lost).

 

[Whoot Whoot]

Bluejackets were due a healthy season

 

[Tom Collins]

Edmonton's had good luck this year when it comes to the top half of their roster. A lot of man games lost have been bottom six forwards and bottom pairing D, which they have the depth to fill from the AHL.

Most significant injuries have been guys like Pouliot, Pitlick, Russell, and Nurse. A bit different than last year when they were without McDavid and Klefbom for most of the year.

That's the thing that jumped out to me as well. Near the same man-games lost as last season but with no significant injuries to top-half players.

Time to knock on all the wood.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Yeah these numbers are skewed, some included players like Savard, Ference, Horton, Lupul, etc...guys that are LTIR'd for life of their contracts.

As a Pens fan, I don't think we'll ever have a healthy season for our stars and it sucks, but I guess it could be much worse.

 

[Steamwhistle]

How are they measuring quality of players lost? Looks like they're placing a massive weight in goaltending considering LA has the same bubble size as WPG and TBL and haven't been plagued by injuries to nearly the same degree as the Jets and TB outisde of Quick (Budaj was still posting similar numbers to past Quick seasons anway).

 

[Osprey]

FWIW, the source says here that 14 NHL teams (plus as many NFL and NBA teams) and most major news outlets use their data.

How are they measuring quality of players lost? Looks like they're placing a massive weight in goaltending considering LA has the same bubble size as WPG and TBL and haven't been plagued by injuries to nearly the same degree as the Jets and TB outisde of Quick (Budaj was still posting similar numbers to past Quick seasons anway).

According to their site's FAQ here, they're using a metric based on hockey-reference.com's "point share" values (which attempt to determine how much impact a player has on his team gaining points). Hockey-reference.com has their own very detailed page here explaining how they determine what each player's point share value is. Just having a cursory look at that suggests to me that they calculate top goalies as about twice as important as top defenders, probably because a top goalie will play roughly twice the minutes of a top defender. That's likely why, as you noted, LA's bubble is so large when Quick is the only really major injury that they've had (next worse was Toffoli, but he was out "only" 19 games).

 

[voxel]

Remove LTIR players please - Lupul, Robidas, Horton, Ference, Pronger, Savard, etc

 

[Maukkis]

The injury bug can **** right off. We have had injuries to all but three roster players this year - Ehlers, Wheeler and Morrissey. Lowry has played 75 games too, but he suffered from a wrist injury during our week off. Such BS.

 

[Cashville]

Nice thread here Osprey. I'm a believer in a moderate amount of man games lost providing some resiliency come playoff time.

 

[Pizza the Hutt]

How in the heck is Vancouver's bubble so big?

 

[Shrimper]

How in the heck is Vancouver's bubble so big?

Mumps

 

[IamNotADancer]

As others have mentioned, quality over quantity.

There is a difference between trying to replace a... let's say Tanner Glass, and trying to replace Alex Ovechkin.

When you can take away here though is that depth is THE most important thing.
You need good replacements not just to replace in case of injury, but also to rotate the line up and keep fresh legs.

 

[ps241]

One of the Jets critical issues this season has been man games lost. Our D core has been hit pretty hard.

 

[End of Line]

List of the amount of players the Pens have had out this year due to injuries + the amount of games (As of today):

Hainsey: 5 games out
Kunitz: 6 games out
Crosby: 6 games out
Cullen: 9 games out
Hornqvist: 11 games out
Dumoulin: 11 games out
Malkin: 12 games out
Hagelin: 13 games out
Murray: 15 games out
Sheary: 20 games out
Daley: 20 games out
Maatta: 20 games out
Rust: 23 games out
Letang: 33 games out

***Updated