Post-Game Talk: MAKE THAT 10, AS HOT AS BO DEREK| #32| Flyers 4 at Avalanche 3 | Wed., Dec. 14, 2016

[Tripod]

He read and anticipated the play using his IQ.....yet you call it gambling.

If he did not have a good IQ, read and intimidate the play, he never intercepts that pass then goes on to score. A dummy like Luke Schenn puts his stick on his guy and rides him into the goalie....all while the pass goes into the slot to an open man.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Some thoughts:

Weird streak, they should probably be 6-3-1 or so, they're really not blowing teams out, and close games even out over time. So while they're playing well, they're not playing 10 wins in a row well.

Luby is getting more confidence and looking more comfortable, but checking line is right for him this year, he didn't do much in Russia untnil last season and seems to be a late bloomer. A year in the weight room and just practicing and playing and I can see him breakout like Raffl. At times looks like a younger version.

Schenn can score, he really needs a solid center so he can play RW and do what he does best without having to worry his little head about all that other hockey stuff.

Ghost is not good defensively, poke checks are nice but sometimes you got to muscle people to get possession and clear the puck out of your zone. He plays smaller than his size (compare to say Kimmo). He's destined to a specialist role (PP and ES but not against top scoring lines).

Welp enough of this. If you can't find any silver lining right now of all times it's onto the blocked list with you

 

[Striiker]

He's just determined to keep up this Ghost myth, same as the "Simmonds isnt fast" nonsense. This is stuff I'd expect from rival fans on the main boards, not someone who watches Flyers games.

It's as if he tries to burry blatantly false statements into long posts to see if he can sneak it by without anyone noticing.

 

[Tripod]

And wasn't there a post a few days ago how Ghost is driving the play more this year, but the shooting and "luck" have declined?

 

[deadhead]

Not from me.

I don't think Ghost is playing "bad," but he's certainly sloppy in his own end and has been responsible for too many turnovers that have lead to goals.

Remember, this is a 23 year old, not a 19-20 year just out of junior, you want to hold him to a higher standard, same way I have no patience with MDZ's flubs now that he should be healthy.

Ghost gets the most O-zone starts of any D-man by a wide margin, so it's hard to compare him with anyone else. Although to be fair, anyone paired with MacDonald or MDZ this year is going to look worse than they are. He has the best rel Corsi and the worst rel GF%, which I think reflects that when he's good (in the O-zone) he's very good, when he's bad (in the D-zone) he's awful.

 

[HighOFFHockey]

Some thoughts:

Weird streak, they should probably be 6-3-1 or so, they're really not blowing teams out, and close games even out over time. So while they're playing well, they're not playing 10 wins in a row well.

 

[NYCFlyer]

That was more about gambling than anything else, and that's about reliance on his quickness. Hockey IQ is more about reading plays and being in the right spot, this was more about gambling - if you're wrong you're out of position. He doesn't look as quick or fast this year, not a lot slower, just a half stride slower.

Provorov doesn't try to make plays like that, his game is all about positioning, anticipating the play, breaking it up by being at the right spot and taking away options and making it easier on his goaltender. Not as sexy, but quietly effective, which is why he leads Flyer D-men in minutes per game the last month or so. As Provorov gets more confident in what he sees, he'll take more chances, but always controlled chances.

Now Ghost with MDZ or MacDonald is not a good combo, he'd be best with Gudas or Morin or another physical D-man who'd protect him and CHA. In fact, he'd be fine with Provorov for that reason.

Deadhead I agree with most of this except that gambling or making low percentage pinches, passes or checks is part of HIQ. A player who consistently makes low percentage passes pinches or plays has low HIQ. IMO Ghost is good defensively against speed teams and below average against heavy teams and as many have said here will significantly benefit from the right partner that let's him be what he is a dynamic playmaker rather than a more defense first guy.

Provorov could just be the back end anchor championship teams need. Still too early to tell, he is only 19 but he is really promising.

 

[Larry44]

Like I said, if that happens, give us the trophy.

This remains our fervent hope! This group has a chance to be special.

 

[Magua]

Ghost is significantly better than Provorov in the OZ and NZ. You generally don't pace for 20 goals as a defensemen unless you are elite offensively as a defensemen, period......

Provorov hasn't elevated the play of MacDonald at all but MacDonald certainly doesn't work with a player like Ghost who is far more aggressive at the blue line than Provorov.

Hard to say that Provorov, with his sky high ES numbers (especially primary points), isn't just as good in his own role in the OZ as Ghost is in his -- just ES here. Kind of like comparing Giroux and Couturier. Ghost is more dynamic, but Provorov is no less effective. Provy is just simpler. There are times though after he makes a pinch/cycle and is in the corner with the puck that he goes for the safe chip around. Wouldn't mind seeing a little more aggressive playmaking at those junctures.....but that's a small thing. Basically, I trust Provorov to make the right play and Ghost to make a play if you understand me. Both do it well.

As for their NZ play, Provorov is every bit the blue line defender and entry gainer (more through passing) Ghost is. The two of them are just clinical, which is one reason I think they'd mesh well together and drive play a ton. Provorov is just as aggressive with his NZ defense.

I also am not sure who could elevate the play of MacDonald. Might take the power every hair on Gudas's beard (and elsewhere). In the possession game, he's always been a black hole. In far easier minutes, the AMac-Ghost pairing the last half season has gotten completely and totally destroyed in easier minutes. That Provorov-MacDonald is seeing top pair minutes -- foolish as this is with AMac's history as one of the weakest possession d man in the league -- and almost exclusively alongside what was 2/3 of the worst possession 4th line in hockey last year, it's no-win. Somehow their expected goal totals, despite the poor Corsi event summaries, are actually OK. That I owe to Provorov, who my eye test tells me is in fact carrying MacDonald.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Ghost doesnt have a high hockey IQ?
what?.
i think we were all spoiled by the kid last year. It really was going to ask a ton of him to repeat it because teams have changed on how they attack him when he has the puck. the same looks he had last year are not there this year.
But to me he is better defensively than last year. Yeah he has had his hiccups this year in games but lets remember he still has yet to play 100 NHL regular season games. he is still growing as a NHL defenseman.
This is what I hate about this board sometimes. just to quick to discount or throw players under the bus and say so and so will never reach his potential. drives me ****ing nuts.

 

[Striiker]

Ghost doesnt have a high hockey IQ?
what?.
i think we were all spoiled by the kid last year. It really was going to ask a ton of him to repeat it because teams have changed on how they attack him when he has the puck. the same looks he had last year are not there this year.
But to me he is better defensively than last year. Yeah he has had his hiccups this year in games but lets remember he still has yet to play 100 NHL regular season games. he is still growing as a NHL defenseman.
This is what I hate about this board sometimes. just to quick to discount or throw players under the bus and say so and so will never reach his potential. drives me ****ing nuts.

Spoiled by Ghost last year and spoiled by Provorov this year.

Morin and Sanheim are gonna be torn apart if they stumble at all in their development.

I have a feeling Stizzle and FLYguy are gonna end up bald from tearing their hair out when people are impatient with Sanheim. Poor guys.

 

[FLYguy3911]

He has the best rel Corsi and the worst rel GF%, which I think reflects that when he's good (in the O-zone) he's very good, when he's bad (in the D-zone) he's awful.

It doesn't reflect that at all. When you see he has the best Corsi numbers and the worst GF/GA numbers the sirens should be going off in your head. Only Gudas has a better scoring/high danger chance ratio than Ghost. His scoring/high danger chances against rate is one of the better ones on the team too so it's not like that ratio is helped out solely because of what he does in the offensive zone. Dig a little deeper. He has the worst GF% on the defense, but the 2nd best High Danger GF%. That, along with his possession numbers, suggest what a lot of people believe, he's been a little unlucky this year. A team low PDO of 97.9 confirms that too.

 

[Striiker]

If I had a nickel for every time Ghost was on the ice for a goal against, but it was his partners fault, id have enough money to hire some Somalian pirates to get rid of Manning for me.

 

[renberg]

But to me he is better defensively than last year. Yeah he has had his hiccups this year in games but lets remember he still has yet to play 100 NHL regular season games. he is still growing as a NHL defenseman.

I would agree with this assessment. He is growing as a defenseman. Perhaps some of the increase in defensive play has taken a bit off of his offensive flair. Then again, it could be that there is still some left over healing from his off season surgery.
In my mind I have been comparing Ghost's development with that of the B's Tory Krug. Like Ghost when he first came into the league Krug was wheels on fire. Then the League caught up to him and he slowed down his offensive play to be more defensively responsible. Its the way life in the NHL is. The neat thing about fast players that can shoot like Ghost and Krug, is that that extra gear is still there and they can turn it on when necessary.

 

[deadhead]

Ghost

15-16 - first 40 games 12-22 34 / 6-10 18
15-16 - last 24 games 5-7 12 / 3-5 8 ES
16-17 - first 32 games 4-12 16 / 3-4 7 ES

His start this year is very similar to his finish last year, suggesting that this is the "real" Ghost, and his hot start was the anomaly.

What really fell off after his hot start was his PP scoring, and I think that's due to teams scouting him and aggressively attacking him when he gets the puck on the PP.

He's settling into a solid role, but that hot start may never be repeated, he's going to be a 40 points D-man (as long as he stays on PP1) with average defense.

 

[Striiker]

Last season he was injured and this season he's had some bad luck despite playing well. Way too early to claim this is what he'll end up ass.

But I'm sure he'll be glad to hear his defense has been upgraded to average.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Last season he was injured and this season he's had some bad luck despite playing well. Way too early to claim this is what he'll end up ass.

But I'm sure he'll be glad to hear his defense has been upgraded to average.

Sneaky

 

[Striiker]

Sneaky

Uhhh oops. Legit typo. I type way too fast and way too inaccurately on my phone. Usually I have to go through my posts a few times to make sure I didn't mess up but there's always some that a miss.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I love arbitrary end points.

Ghost has played 30 games this year not 32. But even if this is the "Real Ghost" he's still hovering around the top 20 in PPG league-wide.

 

[Lindberg]

I also am not sure who could elevate the play of MacDonald. Might take the power every hair on Gudas's beard (and elsewhere). In the possession game, he's always been a black hole. In far easier minutes, the AMac-Ghost pairing the last half season has gotten completely and totally destroyed in easier minutes. That Provorov-MacDonald is seeing top pair minutes -- foolish as this is with AMac's history as one of the weakest possession d man in the league -- and almost exclusively alongside what was 2/3 of the worst possession 4th line in hockey last year, it's no-win. Somehow their expected goal totals, despite the poor Corsi event summaries, are actually OK. That I owe to Provorov, who my eye test tells me is in fact carrying MacDonald.

I'm not sure even Chris Pronger could help MacDonald elevate his play. It doesn't take much to see him make an awful turn over almost every single game. Along with his passive NZ play I want him shot out of a cannon.

 

[Random Forest]

Ghost

15-16 - first 40 games 12-22 34 / 6-10 18
15-16 - last 24 games 5-7 12 / 3-5 8 ES
16-17 - first 32 games 4-12 16 / 3-4 7 ES

His start this year is very similar to his finish last year, suggesting that this is the "real" Ghost, and his hot start was the anomaly.

What really fell off after his hot start was his PP scoring, and I think that's due to teams scouting him and aggressively attacking him when he gets the puck on the PP.

He's settling into a solid role, but that hot start may never be repeated, he's going to be a 40 points D-man (as long as he stays on PP1) with average defense.

Yeah, if you arbitrarily remove over 40% of Gostisbehere career entirely, you reveal the player he truly is.

 

[Rebels57]

deadhead is on a roll, in a bad way.

 

[deadhead]

There's nothing arbitrary about it, he was hot when he entered the league, then cooled off substantially and the "cool off" had continued into this season. That's a pretty dramatic shift that's hard to explain by "week to week" fluctuations.

It's pretty obvious that once the league got a look at Ghost they adjusted on the PP. And you can see it watching games, he has much less room to maneuver than he had when he entered the league, teams now know if they don't challenge him he'll attack the net.

 

[Appleyard]

Ghost is producing more this year per minute at 5v4...

16-17: 4.47 P/60
15-16: 4.27 P/60

They are trying to key in on him... but it is opening up far more space for Jake and Giroux. Giroux is no longer getting 2 players breathing down his neck every PP... as one has to try and almost man mark Ghost. And that frees up Jake in all kinds of room.


It is 5v5 his production has gone down... and his underlying metrics have got better, but his on ice shot % is in the bottom 25% amongst NHL Dmen.

 

[Tripod]

Oops....look like Deadhead just got Appleyarded.

Appleyarded: verb. Using proof, stats and facts to prove a silly arguement wrong.