Magua's 2018 NHL Draft Guide

[Superlative Soup]

Great work Magua!

This is the first time I've read that Hughes has a better shot than Boqvist. Interesting...

 

[LipOut]

@Magua

Superb analysis. Obvious effort and attention to detail shown and well articulated.

I'm curious on Kravtsov. I here different things from different sources. A primary player comp used liberally tends to be Kuznetsov, however it seems from your input he tends to be a much less puck dominant player. Why do you think so many sources are throwing out this comp?

Cheers.

 

[Magua]

Do you have any more thoughts floating around about Noel? He's such an enigma

I basically said it in my writeup: I’m not sure I’d want him gun to my head. I’d rather just trade down because I have others on that tier. In fact he is actually surrounded by a lot of players I have ranked way higher than most if you notice. It's my way of saying if he hits I won’t be surprised, but I'd prefer others. He’s unbelievably inconsistent. But he’s got talent with his physical tools and his flashes are jaw dropping. Some team wants to go all in on risk/reward, go for it. I don't know if I'd feel comfortable. He's so damn raw and unsure of his game still. I don't doubt he has above average hockey sense, his skill, or his skating or raw physical tools. That's a start. His ability to impact the game -- be it being more physical, more decisive with pucks or without pucks, playing on pucks more -- has to improve to minimize the stretches of invisibility.

How much do you weigh a prospect’s pure upside vs their liklehood of becoming a useful NHL’er?

I ask because some people refuse to rank Hughes higher than Dobson/Bouchard because of the lack of short “#1” dmen in the league. And some people love guys like Hayton and Veleno because they think that they’re sure fire NHL’ers

Veleno is a bit of a different case, I think. But the other 3 -- Dobson, Bouchard, Hayton -- are fine examples. But I don't think they're "floor" players either.

I hate when it's a "this or that" type deal. Can a prospect not have upside AND a good likelihood of being an NHL player without fitting the safe archetype? You see I do value floor, but I like players with ceilings too. They aren't always that common outside the top 10 though. Upside: you can't get dreamy with it and ignore major flaws or you make bad picks. It has to be realistic upside; especially in the early rounds, you don't want to outright miss. I want to believe you have actual NHL qualities.

My 4-7 is a total mess. I can argue for one above the other based on fit/need but kind of did a floor/positional value thing. Bouchard I have some issues with and he's not with that group for me. Dobson I love. Dobson and Hughes is just a style thing. Dobson's ability to be that potential #1 though is likely higher. Forget stylistically, but as a Flyers fan myself: who's more important or "better": Ghost or Provorov? Ask a Flyers fan, and you won't get a decisive answer. I think Hughes is a safe bet to be a valuable PP d-man and X-factor at ES. How high his role at ES goes is the uncertain upside part, and coaches will be coaches. But he has special offensive abilities. That he's also the best PP d-man in the draft to me (let's ignore #1) has value. Dobson to me doesn't have that PP potential. Bouchard is in between.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Really nice work ... well done @Magua

 

[Magua]

I was particularly interested in your skating analysis. It's the foundation of a player's performance, of course. I don't care how much "skill" a guy has. If faster, less-skilled players can consistently beat him to 50-50 pucks, that skilled guy becomes a liability.

But you cover way more than straight-ahead speed - posture, mechanics, first step, acceleration, top-end, agility, edgework, walking the blueline, etc. It's a bit pompous for a couch-potato fan (who's skated plenty though) like me to critique NHL players' skating, but I often see players too crouched or too tall, with a stride too short or too long, bent over or sitting back, etc., and it drives me batty. Sure, they still skate the proverbial rings around players at lower levels, but the point is that almost every player has room for improvement in their skating. (Some much more than others, obviously.)

You used a term I haven't encountered - 4-way agility. I'll take a guess ... the combination of inside /outside edge and forward stride / backward stride? Anyway, please advise.

Thanks again for a superb write-up. Don't know where you find the time to do this, but I'm already looking forward to your 2019 Guide.

I'm not some high level hockey player, but I pride myself on my skating. A player like Quinn Hughes.......I will actually go out and try to cop some skating moves. He's maybe my favorite skater in the class with his edges. He's so good at going heel-to-heel and changing his momentum. I'll be honest: I think you thought my phrasing through a little more than me (though I agree with you!); you write enough, enough different words come out!

Great work Magua!

This is the first time I've read that Hughes has a better shot than Boqvist. Interesting...

Someone asked me about this on my board too. I'll @ you!

@MaguaI'm curious on Kravtsov. I here different things from different sources. A primary player comp used liberally tends to be Kuznetsov, however it seems from your input he tends to be a much less puck dominant player. Why do you think so many sources are throwing out this comp?

Cheers.

I'm not always a fan of comps; I feel like I can rarely pick good ones. A lot of time with international players especially I think it can be easier to reach for a fellow Russian in this case. I don't think he's Kuznetsov. The Kyle Connor one was actually suggested by @Stizzle, and I took to it.

Kravtsov is a very fast player and won't slow down the play like some. Being underweight right now against pros does matter (though I saw the same thing in juniors), but he doesn't always have the puck for long. He likes to move it just as fast as he plays with it. That's not a negative. I love that. But I'm not sure he's THE guy on a line or offensively for a team to me. He's more that secondary guy who works as a finisher and individual creator -- but not a tunnel vision one who hinders others. He would mesh really well with a primary puck handler/playmaker. Not to say he's not a good passer. On the Flyers board we took Kravtsov and Berggren in the forum-wide mock. What a combo that would be.

 

[LAKings88]

Hey all. I tend to post on the Flyers thread and share my copious (oh so copious) amount of prospect blather there, and since I've been a member I've done a ranking of draft eligibles. But this year I decided to go all out and synthesize all that blathering and do a REAL write-up thing, which I wrote over the course of the season, editing or adding as needed. It ended up lengthy, but if anyone was bored and had time on their hands, if only to skim around.......

If you want consensus opinions, I gather you know where to find them, but I assure you these really are my thoughts: undiluted and based on little but my own watching. Many of these blurbs or remarks I originally wrote months ago. Whether too bold one way or the other, I can proudly say its my boldness and nothing was half-assed. I spent the year watching hundreds of hours of these prospects in actual games. At the very least, I’m just trying to give my take. I operated on the simple idea: set up a board as I see it for who I think projects as the best NHL players. I have a few international blind spots that I did my best with, but this isn't a true "draft ranking" so much as my personal board.

My rankings and alphabetized write-ups are in the attachment provided. There are a few players I didn’t do write-ups on, either because they’re top of the draft players and I had nothing special to contribute, or I had minimal viewings and did not feel comfortable blathering about them (Bokk, Ylonen, Eriksson, and to a lesser extent O’Brien and Bernard-Docker, though I did see game tape). I generally tried to rank those players conservatively or based on consensus but didn’t want to exclude them either. So, grain of salt. I chose not to rank goalies or re-entries and also had several leftover write-ups from earlier in the season that I included for unranked players, some controversial top 2 rounders even (don't hate me).

These thoughts were batted around in my brain over and over, so if there’s anything I can explain or answer, I will! If nothing else, I tried my best and did this almost year-long project to test myself and perhaps provide something informative (TBD). Please do peruse!

Who is Bulat Shfigullin?

 

[Stizzle]

Who is Bulat Shfigullin?

 

[redwhiteandblue]

Am I the only one who can’t find this report?

 

[Magua]

Am I the only one who can’t find this report?

It's in the "Overview" part of the article. But here's the direct link!

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/attachments/2018-nhl-draft-write-up-pdf.125765/

 

[theVladiator]

...
I'm not always a fan of comps; I feel like I can rarely pick good ones. A lot of time with international players especially I think it can be easier to reach for a fellow Russian in this case. I don't think he's Kuznetsov. The Kyle Connor one was actually suggested by @Stizzle, and I took to it.
...

I do not think Connor is the best comparison. Skating is there, but Connor doesn't have the stickhandling to go through defense with a puck. Drive outside or inside - yes, but not through. I personally find Filip Forsberg comparison closer, but of course every comparison will be flawed in some way.

 

[IslesNorway]

Great write up! Thanks!