Magic Numbers Thread

Freeptop · Oct 29, 2013

So I really miss the old zorak site that seems to have disappeared entirely. Plus, realignment makes things... interesting. So I figured I'd write up a program that can determine magic numbers and do some simple points projections for fun.

It's early in the season, so magic numbers aren't terribly relevant yet, but I figured it was a good time to get some input on the formatting of the output, so I have time to refine it before the numbers do become meaningful. Bear in mind I fiddle with this in limited spare time, so yes, I may well need several months to make it better!

Also - I have to hand-input the data currently. Scraping it from NHL.com is something I'd like to do automatically, but, again, I only fiddle with this in my limited spare time.

If people find this helpful, I'll continue to update the results occasionally during the season. If there are suggestions for improvements to the presentation, they are welcome, though bear in mind I really am writing this in spurts of a few minutes here and there.

Teams that project to be in a wildcard spot are marked with a 'W' in the Projected Points column.
Top 3 in division are separated from the others by a column or row as appropriate.

Updated with results of games through 03/13/14:
Eastern Conference Magic Numbers
Atlantic vs Atlantic

BOS:|BOS:---|TOR:15|TBL:16|x|MTL:14|DET:12|OTT:9|FLO:XXX|BUF:XXX|
TOR:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:27|DET:25|OTT:22|FLO:7|BUF:XXX|
TBL:|BOS:---|TOR:31|TBL:---|x|MTL:30|DET:28|OTT:25|FLO:10|BUF:1|
MTL:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:28|OTT:25|FLO:10|BUF:1|
DET:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:31|FLO:16|BUF:7|
OTT:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:---|FLO:19|BUF:10|
FLO:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:---|FLO:---|BUF:23|
BUF:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:---|FLO:---|BUF:---|

Atlantic vs Metropolitan

BOS:|PIT:---|PHI:14|CLB:13|x|NYR:11|NJD:10|WSH:7|CAR:6|NYI:XXX|
TOR:|PIT:---|PHI:27|CLB:26|x|NYR:24|NJD:23|WSH:20|CAR:19|NYI:9|
TBL:|PIT:---|PHI:30|CLB:29|x|NYR:27|NJD:26|WSH:23|CAR:22|NYI:12|
MTL:|PIT:---|PHI:30|CLB:29|x|NYR:27|NJD:26|WSH:23|CAR:22|NYI:12|
DET:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:33|NJD:32|WSH:29|CAR:28|NYI:18|
OTT:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:---|NJD:---|WSH:32|CAR:31|NYI:21|
FLO:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:---|NJD:---|WSH:---|CAR:---|NYI:---|
BUF:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:---|NJD:---|WSH:---|CAR:---|NYI:---|

Metropolitan vs Metropolitan

PIT:|PIT:---|PHI:15|CLB:14|x|NYR:12|NJD:11|WSH:8|CAR:7|NYI:XXX|
PHI:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:33|x|NYR:31|NJD:30|WSH:27|CAR:26|NYI:16|
CLB:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:30|NJD:29|WSH:26|CAR:25|NYI:15|
NYR:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:---|NJD:29|WSH:26|CAR:25|NYI:15|
NJD:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:---|NJD:---|WSH:29|CAR:28|NYI:18|
WSH:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:---|NJD:---|WSH:---|CAR:29|NYI:19|
CAR:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:---|NJD:---|WSH:---|CAR:---|NYI:22|
NYI:|PIT:---|PHI:---|CLB:---|x|NYR:---|NJD:---|WSH:---|CAR:---|NYI:---|

Metropolitan vs Atlantic

PIT:|BOS:33|TOR:16|TBL:17|x|MTL:15|DET:13|OTT:10|FLO:XXX|BUF:XXX|
PHI:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:34|DET:32|OTT:29|FLO:14|BUF:5|
CLB:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:31|OTT:28|FLO:13|BUF:4|
NYR:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:28|FLO:13|BUF:4|
NJD:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:31|FLO:16|BUF:7|
WSH:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:---|FLO:17|BUF:8|
CAR:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:---|FLO:20|BUF:11|
NYI:|BOS:---|TOR:---|TBL:---|x|MTL:---|DET:---|OTT:---|FLO:28|BUF:19|

Western Conference Magic Numbers
Central vs Central

STL:|STL:---|COL:26|CHI:25|x|MIN:14|DAL:11|WPG:2|NSH:1|
COL:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:31|x|MIN:20|DAL:17|WPG:8|NSH:7|
CHI:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:21|DAL:18|WPG:9|NSH:8|
MIN:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:---|DAL:29|WPG:20|NSH:19|
DAL:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:---|DAL:---|WPG:25|NSH:24|
WPG:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:---|DAL:---|WPG:---|NSH:29|
NSH:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:---|DAL:---|WPG:---|NSH:---|

Central vs Pacific

STL:|ANA:28|SJS:26|LAK:15|x|PHO:6|VAN:1|CAL:XXX|EDM:XXX|
COL:|ANA:---|SJS:32|LAK:21|x|PHO:12|VAN:7|CAL:XXX|EDM:XXX|
CHI:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:22|x|PHO:13|VAN:8|CAL:1|EDM:XXX|
MIN:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:24|VAN:19|CAL:12|EDM:5|
DAL:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:29|VAN:24|CAL:17|EDM:10|
WPG:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:---|VAN:29|CAL:22|EDM:15|
NSH:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:---|VAN:32|CAL:25|EDM:18|

Pacific vs Pacific

ANA:|ANA:---|SJS:30|LAK:19|x|PHO:10|VAN:5|CAL:XXX|EDM:XXX|
SJS:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:19|x|PHO:10|VAN:5|CAL:XXX|EDM:XXX|
LAK:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:21|VAN:16|CAL:9|EDM:2|
PHO:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:---|VAN:25|CAL:18|EDM:11|
VAN:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:---|VAN:---|CAL:21|EDM:14|
CAL:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:---|VAN:---|CAL:---|EDM:25|
EDM:|ANA:---|SJS:---|LAK:---|x|PHO:---|VAN:---|CAL:---|EDM:---|

Pacific vs Central

ANA:|STL:---|COL:30|CHI:29|x|MIN:18|DAL:15|WPG:6|NSH:5|
SJS:|STL:---|COL:30|CHI:29|x|MIN:18|DAL:15|WPG:6|NSH:5|
LAK:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:29|DAL:26|WPG:17|NSH:16|
PHO:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:---|DAL:---|WPG:26|NSH:25|
VAN:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:---|DAL:---|WPG:---|NSH:28|
CAL:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:---|DAL:---|WPG:---|NSH:---|
EDM:|STL:---|COL:---|CHI:---|x|MIN:---|DAL:---|WPG:---|NSH:---|

Metropolitan Division

Pos|Team|Div|GP|Pts|ROW|ProjPts
1|PIT|MET|65|92|39|116.062
2|PHI|MET|65|73|30|92.0923
3|CLB|MET|66|74|30|91.9394
--|---|---|---|---|---|---------
4|NYR|MET|67|74|31|90.5672 W
5|NJD|MET|66|71|29|88.2121
6|WSH|MET|67|70|22|85.6716
7|CAR|MET|66|67|28|83.2424
8|NYI|MET|67|59|19|72.209

Atlantic Division

Pos|Team|Div|GP|Pts|ROW|ProjPts
1|BOS|ATL|66|93|42|115.545
2|TOR|ATL|68|80|27|96.4706
3|TBL|ATL|66|77|29|95.6667
--|---|---|---|---|---|---------
4|MTL|ATL|67|77|30|94.2388 W
5|DET|ATL|65|71|25|89.5692
6|OTT|ATL|65|68|25|85.7846
7|FLO|ATL|66|55|17|68.3333
8|BUF|ATL|66|46|13|57.1515

Central Division

Pos|Team|Div|GP|Pts|ROW|ProjPts
1|STL|CEN|66|97|37|120.515
2|COL|CEN|66|91|40|113.061
3|CHI|CEN|66|90|33|111.818
--|---|---|---|---|---|---------
4|MIN|CEN|66|79|28|98.1515 W
5|DAL|CEN|65|74|29|93.3538 W
6|WPG|CEN|67|69|24|84.4478
7|NSH|CEN|66|66|27|82

Pacific Division

Pos|Team|Div|GP|Pts|ROW|ProjPts
1|ANA|PAC|66|93|41|115.545
2|SJS|PAC|67|93|33|113.821
3|LAK|PAC|67|82|32|100.358
--|---|---|---|---|---|---------
4|PHO|PAC|67|73|26|89.3433
5|VAN|PAC|68|70|26|84.4118
6|CAL|PAC|66|59|22|73.303
7|EDM|PAC|67|54|20|66.0896

Darth Vitale · Oct 29, 2013

Too much time on your hands... you've got it.

But if you're willing to update it for the next 70 games, by all means.

Freeptop · Oct 31, 2013

Updated with last night's results.

Freeptop · Nov 4, 2013

Updated with the weekend's results.

Freeptop · Nov 21, 2013

Updated with results through last night's games.

Freeptop · Nov 25, 2013

Updated with results through last night's games.

Freeptop · Dec 9, 2013

Updated with results through last night's games.
If anyone was actually looking forward to this, sorry for the wait!

Freeptop · Dec 16, 2013

Time for the more-or-less weekly update! All results are through last night's games (12/15/2013).

Freeptop · Jan 3, 2014

Updated with games through 01/02/14.

Also, I've been working on an update to my program that produces these to create a forward projection based on each team's record in the last 10 games (this is something the old zorak site used to have). Would anyone be interested in that other than me? (I'd rather not waste my time if not).

Freeptop · Jan 10, 2014

Updated with games through 01/09/14.

Freeptop · Jan 16, 2014

Updated with games through 1/15/14.

Jaded-Fan · Jan 16, 2014

Any chance of at some point adding a magic number column regarding Crosby winning the Art Ross Trophy?

Freeptop · Feb 6, 2014

Jaded-Fan said:
Any chance of at some point adding a magic number column regarding Crosby winning the Art Ross Trophy?

You can't really make a magic number for something where there isn't a finite supply of points, so, no.

Magic Number table has now been updated through last night's games. I hadn't realized it had been quite so long since the last update, either.

For the record, the Pens' magic number for the playoffs now stands at 30, and the magic number for clinching the division is 33.

Jaded-Fan · Feb 6, 2014

Freeptop said:
You can't really make a magic number for something where there isn't a finite supply of points, so, no.

Magic Number table has now been updated through last night's games. I hadn't realized it had been quite so long since the last update, either.

For the record, the Pens' magic number for the playoffs now stands at 30, and the magic number for clinching the division is 33.

So basically any combination of 7 wins by the Pens or losses by the Rangers in the remaining 25 games for each means that we have the division. I believe that it would be any combination of 12 wins by the Pens or losses by the Bruins in the remaining 25 games for the Pens and 27 games remaining for the Bruins means that we have the Conference.

Both seem pretty much sure things. I know 10 points ahead in the conference with 25/27 games remaining seems like a lot of time to overcome the deficit, but in reality that is a pretty huge gap. It is rare that gaps like that are overcome in sports.

As for Crosby winning the Art Ross Trophy, stick a fork in that one too. Even if he God forbid got injured he very well still could maintain his lead, it is that big.

Freeptop · Feb 25, 2014

With games about to start up again after the Olympics, I figured this was the right time to update the magic number chart.

For those who don't want to have to go through the charts to figure it out:
Penguins' Magic Number for Playoffs: 28
For the Division: 30
For the Conference: 45

And for those interested in the President's Trophy Race:
Pens Magic Number for the President's Trophy is: 51 (though they can only earn 48 more points themselves, so they'll need help).

Broken down a bit more, their magic numbers against their closest rivals for the President's Trophy are:
Blues: 51
Ducks: 48
Bruins: 45
Blackhawks: 45
Sharks: 43

Freeptop · Mar 12, 2014

Updated with standings through 3/11/14 games.

Pens Magic Number for Playoffs: 11
For the Division: 15
For the Conference: 33

Freeptop · Mar 14, 2014

As we're getting into the stretch run to the playoffs, I'm going to attempt to update more often. We'll see if I succeed...

Updated with standing through 3/13/14 games.

Pens Magic Numbers
For Playoffs: 11
For the Division: 15
For the Conference: 33

The Pens are already guaranteed to finish better than the Islanders, Panthers and Sabres.

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