Why is he falling so much then?
Nobody knows that he is falling. Nobody knows where NHL teams have him.
I think he's falling on lists because there's a narrative around him now and because the vast majority of internet scouts don't watch a high amount of games and tend to rely more on stats and others opinions.
It's easy to criticize a player who is one dimensional. You tend to go "Okay, we know we're good at scoring. What else can you do?" and that answer can be disappointing.
I'm also not convinced that he even is falling particularly hard as some proponents of him haven't released their final lists and others still have him high. Guys that like him like him a lot. Guys that don't, don't.
Button still has him at 8 as of March. McKenzie has him at 13 as of May. Kennedy hasn't done any new rankings since mid season but had him at 7. Draft prospects has him at 4. Recruits has him at 11 from 9. McKeens has him at 5 in the mid season rankings. Most of the lists have him around 10-13, with some having him outside of the top 15 entirely, most of which have him going at 16.
He was projected to go 2nd or in the top 5 a year ago, which is why most people see him as falling. But there are still people who feel that way about him, and there are still people who have him in the top 10. Funnily enough comparing rankings there's actually more people who had him low at the start of the season than there are now. Not that it means much since I think those people are out to lunch as scouts.
He's shown the same level of skill last year, perhaps even more so offensively, but others have shown a lot more improvement and have ballooned up the rankings based on that. I think that more than anything shows the mentality around him. But it's not like he's changed as a player all that much, good or bad. He has improved his defense and his compete and physicality for sure, but not as much as someone like Iginla who has made leaps and bounds. And he didn't have to. Because he was already a very good prospect last year.
People, to a degree, just tend to gravitate more towards the new than they do the old, and we've also seen that plenty of times with guys who were injured or didn't play. Shiny new toy syndrome is very much a thing in the prospect world.
That is by no means an excuse for him or me saying that he should be drafted higher than he will be, but it's just the truth and a potential hypothetical. I'm not an NHL scout. Maybe he interviewed poorly, or maybe his comments in articles have rubbed scouts the wrong way, or maybe they've talked to his coaches or watched tape and concluded he doesn't have the desire to improve enough to be an NHL level forward. Who knows! I sure as shit don't.
What I do know is that his offense is unreal and off the charts and that he projects as a very, very good goal scorer. I would wager good money that wherever he goes he becomes a very productive goal scorer in the NHL. He may not put up 100 points, he may not be Ovechkin or Matthews, but I do think he scores at least 20 a year. And he certainly does have potential to score 40 or 50. To me, I would rather gamble on someone who has that potential than a safer pick. There are certainly players I like more than Eiserman but I really value his offensive skills, I think they're very very translatable to the NHL and he has a good bet to continue scoring in the NHL because of that, he already has an NHL shot and much like Michkov last year has a wonderful way of anticipating plays in the offensive zone and finding avenues to score with his quick deadly accurate release that a lot of players who light up junior don't.
His goal totals are definitely inflated from cherry picking and having his team give him the puck, but from what I've heard that's also what his coaches wanted him to do. I can't really fault him for his own usage, if he's told to not give a shit about defense and hang out at the offside marker for a break out pass, well that's what he's told to do. I don't think that's great for his development by any means but coaches tend to care more about keeping their jobs and winning than development.
His offensive potential is so sky high that I am willing to ignore his defensive deficiencies, and I don't see the lazy entitled player that most do anyways. I see a guy who generally works hard, sometimes has off nights both defensively and offensively, and isn't great away from the puck. I also see a guy who creates his own chances off of being able to score from anywhere on the ice almost regardless of angle, who has an exceptional wrister and a great one timer, who has a nose for the net and is adept at pouncing on rebounds and taking away pucks from breaking out players and who has great reaction time and a quick and deadly shot that is accurate and easily capable of threading the needle. I see a guy who is going to be amazing on the powerplay and with open ice in general, whose skills easily translate to the NHL. And perhaps most importantly I see a guy who has all the tools to make it work defensively, who isn't afraid to be physical.
I definitely agree that if you're looking for a two way or defensive forward or a mean winger or center who also has skill that you shouldn't draft Eiserman. There's tons of guys like Lindstrom and Iginla that are better at those jobs. What I do see is a guy I can easily see scoring a ton of goals in the NHL. And if that's what you're looking for, I really don't think there's anyone in this draft who is better at it than he is. I would say he's the best pure scorer in this draft. Demidov is much more cerebral, a much better highlight reel, and a way better playmaker. Helenius has already proven he can play against and be productive against men and has a good shot of being an excellent two way scorer. Catton has excellent vision and IQ and playmaking. But I just don't see any of them having the same translatable skill of being able to sniff out a puck that's loose in a pile and rifling it into the net consistently, or being able to pick a corner, use the d-man as a screen and rifle it past the goalie.
That's why you draft Eiserman over these other guys. And honestly I don't know if he will get drafted before those other guys- I think there's a strong chance both Helenius and Demidov go ahead of him and about a 50/50 chance any of Catton, Lindstrom and Iginla do. But like I said, I keep hammering the point home, you draft Eiserman because you want goals. He's gonna give you that, and I'd again wager good money that he does that more than any other prospect in this draft.
He's just a different prospect than those guys, and that's perfectly fine. I'm already the type of scout who has her opinions about prospects that nobody else does, and I'm fine with that. We'll see if I'm right or not, I certainly could be.
My god did I write a wall of text. I'm so sorry anyone who reads this.
