In the majority of the analyses that I do below, I do not include Pittsburgh or Chicago’s Stanley Cup winning teams, as they are teams that won the cup despite relatively poor performances from their goalies. In my opinion, they represent outliers / an exception to the rule that you simply need good goaltending to win a cup.
As with all stats, they don’t tell the full story. But here are some stats that support both sides of the argument:
Hank's Team Needs to Do Better In Front of Him:
Avg shots per game faced by goalies:
Team
|
Goalie
|
Season
|
Avg Shots Per Game
NYR | Henrik Lundqvist | 12-13 | 36.2
| | 11-12 | 29.6
LA Kings | Jonathan Quick | 11-12 | 28.4
Boston Bruins | Tim Thomas | 10-11 | 36
Detroit Red Wings | Chris Osgood | 07-08 | 24.2
Anaheim Ducks | J.S. Giguere | 06-07 | 27
Carolina Hurricanes | Cam Ward | 05-06 | 27.4
Tampa Bay Lightning | Nikolai Khabibulin | 03-04 | 27.7
New Jersey Devils | Martin Brodeur | 02-03 | 27.6
Detroit Red Wings | Dominik Hasek | 01-02 | 26.4
Colorado Avalanche | Patrick Roy | 00-01 | 28.8
When looking at last year, Hank supporters can’t really fall back on this argument. This is, however, clearly a problem with this year’s team so far in the playoffs.
# of Playoff Games in Which the Goalie’s Team Outshot Their Opponent vs. Opponent Outshooting the Goalie’s Team:
Team
|
Goalie
|
Season
|
# of Games Team Outshot Opponent
|
# of Games Opponent Outshot Team
NYR | Henrik Lundqvist | 12-13 | 4 | 5
| | 11-12 | 11 | 9
LA Kings | Jonathan Quick | 11-12 | 12 | 7
Boston Bruins | Tim Thomas | 10-11 | 9 | 16
Chicago Blackhawks | Antti Niemi | 09-10 | 12 | 8
Pittsbugh Penguins | Marc-Andre Fleury | 08-09 | 17 | 7
Detroit Red Wings | Chris Osgood | 07-08 | 17 | 0
Anaheim Ducks | J.S. Giguere | 06-07 | 10 | 6
Carolina Hurricanes | Cam Ward | 05-06 | 11 | 10
Tampa Bay Lightning | Nikolai Khabibulin | 03-04 | 11 | 12
New Jersey Devils | Martin Brodeur | 02-03 | 15 | 6
Detroit Red Wings | Dominik Hasek | 01-02 | 16 | 7
Colorado Avalanche | Patrick Roy | 00-01 | 10 | 11
This chart is interesting – it clearly shows that compared to most championship teams in the last decade, the Rangers need to do a better job in this department. Only about 50 % of their games are they outshooting their opponent. This is an issue. In 7 of the last 11 Stanley Cup winners the winning team typically outshot their opponent. Obviously this doesn’t tell you whether they were quality chances or not – but I think it certainly indicates something; not necessarily a surprise that a championship team outshoots their opponent more often than not. The interesting thing in this chart is that there were so many – 4 out of 11 – where the winning team only outshot their opponent about 50 % of the time, or were actually outshot more often than not. Seems to show pretty clearly that a goalie elevating their performance can take a less talented/dominant team to the cup.
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Hank needs to do a better job for his team to have a chance at the cup:
- In the last 29 playoff games Hank has played, he has a much worse win % both when his team is outshooting their opponent and when they are being outshot than goalies on championship teams.
- Perhaps most concerning is that when the NYR are outshooting their opponent, Hank is just 7-7 (0.500). Goalies on championship teams have a win percent almost 25 % higher than Hank’s in those types of games, at 0.739 (minus Pitt and Chi).
- Also of concern is that when NYR is outshot Hank is 7-8 (.467). Goalies on championship teams again have close to a 20 % higher win rate than Hank at 0.653. While the Rangers need to do a better job of not letting this happen as much as they do (per the charts in the above section), Hank needs to steal more of these types of games.
Both of those figures need to improve.
Here is the relevant chart (Record in games where team outshot opponent vs. got outshot by opponent):
Team
|
Goalie
|
Season
|
Record in Games When Team Outshoots Opponent
|
Win % in Those Games
|
Record in Games When Team is Outshot by Opponent
|
Win % in Those Games
NYR | Henrik Lundqvist | 12-13 | 2-2 | .500 | 2-3 | .400
| | 11-12 | 5-6 | .455 | 5-4 | .556
| |
Total
| 7-8 | .467 | 7-7 | .500
| | | | | |
LA Kings | Jonathan Quick | 11-12 | 9-3 | .750 | 6-1 | .857
Boston Bruins | Tim Thomas | 10-11 | 4-5 | .444 | 12-4 | .750
Detroit Red Wings | Chris Osgood | 07-08 | 13-4 | .765 | N/A – 0 games | N/A
Anaheim Ducks | J.S. Giguere | 06-07 | 8-2 | .800 | 4-2 | .667
Carolina Hurricanes | Cam Ward | 05-06 | 10-1 | .909 | 4-6 | .400
Tampa Bay Lightning | Nikolai Khabibulin | 03-04 | 7-4 | .636 | 9-3 | .750
New Jersey Devils | Martin Brodeur | 02-03 | 12-3 | .800 | 2-4 | .333
Detroit Red Wings | Dominik Hasek | 01-02 | 11-5 | .688 | 5.2 | .714
Colorado Avalanche | Patrick Roy | 00-01 | 8-2 | .800 | 7-4 | .636
| |
Total
| 82-29 | .739 | 49-26 | .653
# of games giving up 3 goals or more:
Team
|
Goalie
|
Season
|
# Games Giving Up 3 Goals or More
|
# Games Keeping Opponent to 2 Goals or Less
NYR | Henrik Lundqvist | 12-13 | 5 | 4
| | 11-12 | 8 | 12
LA Kings | Jonathan Quick | 11-12 | 3 | 17
Boston Bruins | Tim Thomas | 10-11 | 9 | 16
Detroit Red Wings | Chris Osgood | 07-08 | 5 | 13
Anaheim Ducks | J.S. Giguere | 06-07 | 5 | 12
Carolina Hurricanes | Cam Ward | 05-06 | 8 | 15
Tampa Bay Lightning | Nikolai Khabibulin | 03-04 | 8 | 15
New Jersey Devils | Martin Brodeur | 02-03 | 7 | 17
Detroit Red Wings | Dominik Hasek | 01-02 | 9 | 14
Colorado Avalanche | Patrick Roy | 00-01 | 8 | 15
In 3 rounds last year, Hank had just as many – or more – 3+ goal games as most of the winning goalies did in 4 rounds. Only 2 games into the second round this year, Hank is on pace to far exceed that # unless he steps it up.
Also of relevance is the distribution of these 3+ goal games: Are they evenly spread throughout 4 rounds, or clumped in a few rounds typically? I went through and looked at this – and the short answer is that they are typically spread out. The interesting tidbit is that on the championship winning teams, if their goalie gave up 3+ goals more than three times in a single round, that round went to 7 games all but one time (excluding Pitt and Chi) in the past 12 years. Of 11 times that a goalie on a championship team gave up 3+ goals in a single round, 10 of those series went to game 7.
Last year, Hank gave up 3+ goals in 2 games vs Ottawa, 2 games vs. Washington, and 4 games vs. New Jersey. A good argument could be made that he needs better goal support in the OTT and WSH series that year. But he absolutely didn’t help himself – or his team – in that New Jersey series by giving up 3+ goals in four out of six games. This year? We’ll see. 3 games in which he gave up 3+ goals against WSH – series goes to 7 games (shouldn’t be a surprise based upon the above stats). So far, 2 games against Boston. We’ll see how things go from here…
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Last thing I wanted to examine was the goal support argument. So I looked at record and win % dependent upon goals allowed.
Record and Win % in 3+ Goal Games vs. 2 Goal Or Less Games:
Team
|
Goalie
|
Season
|
Record in 3+ Goal Games
|
Win % in 3+ Goal Games
|
Record in 2 Goal or Less Games
|
Win % in 2 Goal or Less Games
NYR | Henrik Lundqvist | 12-13 | 2-3 | .400 | 2-2 | .500
| | 11-12 | 0-8 | 0.000 | 10-2 | .833
| |
Total
| 2-11 | .154 | 12-4 | .750
| | | | | |
LA Kings | Jonathan Quick | 11-12 | 0-3 | 0.000 | 16-1 | .941
Boston Bruins | Tim Thomas | 10-11 | 4-5 | .444 | 12-4 | .750
Detroit Red Wings | Chris Osgood | 07-08 | 2-3 | .400 | 12-1 | .923
Anaheim Ducks | J.S. Giguere | 06-07 | 3-2 | .600 | 10-2 | .833
Carolina Hurricanes | Cam Ward | 05-06 | 3-5 | .375 | 13-2 | .867
Tampa Bay Lightning | Nikolai Khabibulin | 03-04 | 1-7 | .125 | 15-0 | 1.000
New Jersey Devils | Martin Brodeur | 02-03 | 1-6 | .143 | 15-2 | .882
Detroit Red Wings | Dominik Hasek | 01-02 | 3-6 | .333 | 13-1 | .929
Colorado Avalanche | Patrick Roy | 00-01 | 4-4 | .500 | 12-3 | .800
| |
Total
| 21-46 | .313 | 123-16 | .885
As I said earlier: It is a fact of life that scoring declines and games tighten up in the playoffs. In order for your team to have a good shot at winning the game, your goalie typically needs to keep the opposition to 2 goals or less.
Goal support was a fine argument to make about last year’s team – they were awful in this regard. That they could not win even once in the 8 games Hank gave up 3+ goals is pretty sad. But despite this, they did win most of the games he kept the opponent to less than 3 goals. This year, however, Hank has gotten that goal support to a degree (though it is an admittedly small sample size). The team needs to do a better job this year of winning the games he keeps the opponent to 2 goals or less, but they’ve also bailed him out of just as many games in which he gave up 3+ goals.
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Seems to me from all of that information that there isn’t one clear cut answer. Hank needs to be better, but so does the team in front of him. At the end of the day – both extremes in this argument seem to be wrong. Hank needs a stronger team (whether that is personnel or effort is up for debate) in front of him. But the team also needs Hank to do better come playoff time. Those on the side of the argument who refuse to allow any blame to be laid at Hank’s feet miss the point many reasonable posters are making: It isn’t that he is a bad goalie. It is that he simply needs to be
better and
more consistent when it comes to the playoffs. Maintaining his regular season stats aren’t going to be enough to win a cup. He needs to find another level in the playoffs.
