Luca Sbisa Discussion -- Part IV

[Scurr]

why post stats without mentioning QOC?

Because it doesn't matter.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/23/the-importance-of-quality-of-competition

While competition certainly does play a big factor in determining how a player will do in any given shift, with these competition metrics we see nobody with usage extreme enough to require a major correction factor.

Zone starts don't have much of an affect, either. QOT is the single biggest driver of counting and possession stats by a country mile.

 

[opendoor]

So many uninformed posts in this thread, shocking. Caution, wall of hurt incoming.

Why would you sort rate stats like Corsi and the like by +/-, or even worse, per game?

Anyway, you don't need a bunch of screenshots to illustrate Sbisa's struggles. Here's where he ranks on the Canucks among the 8 defensemen:

Shots F/A%: 5th
Corsi F/A%: 8th
Fenwick F/A%: 6th
Scoring Chances F/A% 8th
High Danger Scoring Chances F/A: 6th
Goals F/A%: 3rd

So aside from goals he is clearly in the bottom tier of one of the worst defenses in the NHL. His goal numbers are quite good, but is he driving the .945 sv% when he's on the ice?

 

[opendoor]

Canucks defense GA/P 60 the holy grail for defense stats:

1. Tanev 1.70
2. Hutton 1.76
3. Sbisa 1.77
4. Hamhuis 1.91
5. Edler 2.23
6. Weber 2.35
7. Biega 2.56
8. Bartkowski 2.71

So flame away...Sbisa has quietly become the 3rd best Canuck at keeping pucks out of our net and leads in physicality......but dont let numbers get in the way of an agenda.

Yep, that's all you need to know. Sbisa has now joined the elite ranks of Alberts, Ballard, and Stanton as guys who've finished top 3 in GA/60 on the Canucks in the last few years.

 

[DL44]

Well... numbers aside..

I think we are all happy he's looking like he's gained some consistency.

 

[kanucks25]

As long as he's the 6/7 next year, we're in decent shape.

If he has to be the #4 beside Hamhuis on the 2nd-pairing, it means no upgrades were made in the summer.

Ideally, IMO anyway, we trade Hamhuis, sign him back in the off-season and somehow acquire a 2nd-pairing RHD.

Edler - Tanev
Hamhuis - ________
Hutton - Biega/Sbisa

At this point we don't really have a D prospect pushing for a spot. Pedan is close but I think he could use another year in the A as the 1st injury call-up.

 

[opendoor]

Pedan is waiver eligible next year, so he's probably on the roster one way or another.

 

[kanucks25]

Pedan is waiver eligible next year, so he's probably on the roster one way or another.

Ah, that puts a wrinkle into things.

I guess they could keep him as the extra but that'd cut his playing time and he'd have to play the right side (which I don't know if he can do).

If he's being slotted in for next year then that may mean there's no room for Hamhuis.

Trading Edler would really solve a lot of problems.

 

[coldsteel79]

Ah, that puts a wrinkle into things.

I guess they could keep him as the extra but that'd cut his playing time and he'd have to play the right side (which I don't know if he can do).

If he's being slotted in for next year then that may mean there's no room for Hamhuis.

Trading Edler would really solve a lot of problems.

Except edler plays more physical than all other dmen besides Sbisa, this is why I don't see hamhuis back unless he really takes a pay cut like a huge pay cut

 

[VanJack]

Well... numbers aside..

I think we are all happy he's looking like he's gained some consistency.

So now's the time to trade high...apparently scouts from Dallas are following the Canucks....what would Sbisa fetch from the Stars?

 

[Yammer]

I've been to a few games lately and was pleasantly surprised by Sbisa after all the hate he gets on the interwebs.

To me, he gets in trouble when he tries to stay out of trouble, i.e. dropping back to watch the puck carrier. He drops back too far and winds up screening his goalie or getting beat by a crossover step.

He's far better when he plays aggressively, stepping into guys in his own zone, and carrying it himself with his pretty good wheels.

He's not a shutdown D. To me, he is Jovanovski-lite. A guy to jump into the play and who can hit but isn't a smart defender per se.

 

[bossram]

What source are you using?

Shot stats are crap for defenseman...about as important as penalty minutes. Unless teams are matching power vs power up front they're extremely miss leading.

Its the same thing with Sutter...his Corsi sucks but its easy to see why...his highest minutes in Pittsburgh were against Ovechkins line Tavares' line Stamkos' while playing with Matt Cooke Tyler Kennedy Tanner Glass and Beau Bennett. Of course its gonna suck.Btm line though his GA 60 one of the best. It tells me that Sutter and his line was extremely effective at boxing out and forcing low percentage shots.

Defenseman are similar. Top shut down pairs get the same treatment. Top offensive pairs are set up for Corsi success with scoring talented forwards and the rest well it just depends....its a team game that hes responsible for 20% of. If he can keep the puck out of the net that trumps shots anyday.....his physicality for sure helpsMiller and Markstrom see more shots and get to more rebounds.

PDO is a good stat and it does put him as slightly lucky save % wise for. His good GF 60 proves hes been lucky to be on ice for probably a lot more goals than hes helped produce...hes definitely not a catalyst for offense.

Hes better than Weber also but im sure you just forgot about him.....#5 sounds about right.

From war-on-ice. You aren't too well-versed in stats.

Numbers are among Canucks D-men > 250 minutes played. That includes Weber.

OK you don't like shots. Good thing I also listed how he bleeds scoring chances against. Good thing you ignored those. He is not good defensively. I don't know how allowing chances can be seen as a good thing. The reason his GA/60 is decent is because of a fluky high on-ice SV%. Allowing shots and chances against isn't good. We know this. The reason shots are more reliable is because studies have shown they are a repeatable skill. Goals are much more noisy, due to variance.

If you can suppress shots/chances, you are good at defending. If you bleed chances, I don't see how you can be that effective at defending. And I addressed your concerns regarding usage in my post. Sbisa gets a positive zone start push. He plays weak competition (because and Edler and Tanev have been used exclusively in a tough minutes role to subsidize everyone else). There are no excuses.

This "boxing" out think is a myth. His high-danger scoring chance against numbers are still atrocious. He's not boxing-out anything. He can't drive offense. He can't defend. He's not good.

 

[bossram]

Why would you sort rate stats like Corsi and the like by +/-, or even worse, per game?

Anyway, you don't need a bunch of screenshots to illustrate Sbisa's struggles. Here's where he ranks on the Canucks among the 8 defensemen:

Shots F/A%: 5th
Corsi F/A%: 8th
Fenwick F/A%: 6th
Scoring Chances F/A% 8th
High Danger Scoring Chances F/A: 6th
Goals F/A%: 3rd

So aside from goals he is clearly in the bottom tier of one of the worst defenses in the NHL. His goal numbers are quite good, but is he driving the .945 sv% when he's on the ice?

No he doesn't. We know this, because stats guys have long ago ran year-to-year correlations. SV% is not a repeatable skill for skaters.

 

[bossram]

I've been to a few games lately and was pleasantly surprised by Sbisa after all the hate he gets on the interwebs.

To me, he gets in trouble when he tries to stay out of trouble, i.e. dropping back to watch the puck carrier. He drops back too far and winds up screening his goalie or getting beat by a crossover step.

He's far better when he plays aggressively, stepping into guys in his own zone, and carrying it himself with his pretty good wheels.

He's not a shutdown D. To me, he is Jovanovski-lite. A guy to jump into the play and who can hit but isn't a smart defender per se.

So he's Jovo with all of the risk but none of the offensive upside?

Thats sounds terrible.

 

[bossram]

I don't really disagree with what you said at all. I think you missed my point though: in the circumstances where you don't have anyone signed (keep in mind this is pre-tanev signed and pre-hutton emergence) and you are faced with having only Edler under term to the end of the Sedin and Miller contract window... it looks dicey. GM's dont get fired for one overpayment.. They do get fired for having only 1 NHL dman signed going into a season. Sbisa's agent probably knew this and Dim ****ing Jim couldn't see past the "meat and potatoes" player Sbisa is with his "toughness" and got bent over in the negotiations.

Like I said, I hate Sbisa and I don't like the signing, but I at least UNDERSTAND the logic. Unlike some of his other moves...

The logic doesn't make sense to me.

"Oh, we have no defensemen signed long-term, so let's go make an absurd overpayment to a 7thD calibre player".

Who cares if we have no defensemen signed long-term at the time. It means you have flexibility. And if you can't find any actual credible defenseman to sign long-term or acquire, then sign cheap stop gaps and try again later. Keep the flexiblity to add/subtract players and salary.

There is no reason to pull a Sbisa. Ever. Sign guys long-term because you think they're good and can get them at good value. Don't sign a guy because "Oh, we have no one else."

Jim Benning is just a bad GM. That's it.

 

[Yammer]

So he's Jovo with all of the risk but none of the offensive upside?

Thats sounds terrible.

No. I'm saying that he looks like a guy with good tools (passing, skating, shooting, hitting) who isn't a crafty positional player but can bail himself out with strength. He's a good player. Jovo-lite in that he won't score AS much - nor does he have the confidence (or green light?) to go as much as I remember Jovo going.

 

[fancouver]

So he's Jovo with all of the risk but none of the offensive upside?

Thats sounds terrible.

Jovo was a #1 defenceman, mobile, hits like a truck, fearless fighter, and a leader in the dressing room.

I don't think the Canucks had anyone like that since he left for Florida.

 

[bossram]

No. I'm saying that he looks like a guy with good tools (passing, skating, shooting, hitting) who isn't a crafty positional player but can bail himself out with strength. He's a good player. Jovo-lite in that he won't score AS much - nor does he have the confidence (or green light?) to go as much as I remember Jovo going.

Jovo was a #1 defenceman, mobile, hits like a truck, fearless fighter, and a leader in the dressing room.

I don't think the Canucks had anyone like that since he left for Florida.

I'm not saying Jovo isn't good. He was fantastic.

The point is that Sbisa is not Jovo. He is nowhere close. He is in no way good, I just don't see how anyone can come away watching him OR looking into his numbers and coming to the conclusion he is a useful player. And that is without taking his contract into consideration.

Like he won't score as much as Jovo? That's hilarious. He is nowhere even close. Not even on the same planet. I don't care what tools he has. He can't put them together and the results speak for themselves.

Sbisa is a decent skater and makes a big hit once every 15 games. He can't defend and doesn't have offensive upside. That's not a recipe for success.

 

[Oliewud]

Hes jovo without the offense LOL best comparison ive ever heard

 

[tantalum]

And Bartkowski is Hedican without the defense.

 

[geebaan]

So, after watching Sbisa these last few games on tape(and yes, I am a known sbisa non believer), I can honestly say I have no idea what people still see in him. I see a guy afraid to make a decision, waits too long, and consistently turns it over. I see a guy who hits, then is consistently out of position. I see a guy who starts scrums at the weirdest moments, but when there is actually something going on, he shys away. I'll just never understand it I guess.

 

[RobertKron]

No. I'm saying that he looks like a guy with good tools (passing, skating, shooting, hitting) who isn't a crafty positional player but can bail himself out with strength. He's a good player. Jovo-lite in that he won't score AS much - nor does he have the confidence (or green light?) to go as much as I remember Jovo going.

So he's a bad defenseman who is strong enough that he can sometimes cover his mistakes. You did not just describe "a good player," you described a liability.

 

[Hit the post]

The point is that Sbisa is not Jovo. He is nowhere close. He is in no way good

He's probably as good defensively as Jovo (eg., Jovo was mediocre defensively).

 

[MS]

He's probably as good defensively as Jovo (eg., Jovo was mediocre defensively).

Jovo was mediocre defensively ... for a #1 guy. Much like Dion Phaneuf.

If you gave a prime Jovanovski soft 3rd pairing icetime like Sbisa gets, he would dominate defensively in those minutes.

 

[Scurr]

Jovo was mediocre defensively ... for a #1 guy. Much like Dion Phaneuf.

If you gave a prime Jovanovski soft 3rd pairing icetime like Sbisa gets, he would dominate defensively in those minutes.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/23/the-importance-of-quality-of-competition
http://hockeyanalysis.com/2014/12/13/zone-starts-dont-matter-much/

Soft minutes don't exist in the NHL.

 

[MS]

Soft minutes don't exist in the NHL.

Yes they do. And I don't care what numbers you try throwing out to prove otherwise.

A #1 pair consistently matched against top lines of the opposition has a hell of a lot harder job than a 3rd pair playing 11 ES minutes against mainly scrubs.