Speculation: Lower level offer sheet candidates

[Dr Pepper]

For all we know teams have. We just wouldn't know it unless he signed it

See that's exactly it.

All you ever hear about is which player will be the next to get an offer sheet, when it's possible that EVERY RFA gets an offer sheet thrown their way.

If they don't sign it - which seems to be the case 99% of the time - it disappears and we're none the wiser.

 

[Habsrule]

You have to look at it from the players point of view. Say that your team is offering X amount of dollars and some other team is offering Y amount. Is the difference between X and Y really worth potentially burning a bridge between yourself and your team?

 

[simon IC]

Would love Cernak inSt. Louis.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Might be able to get Dermott from the Leafs for a 2nd.

 

[Tripod]

Would love Cernak inSt. Louis.

You are not alone. Would love him in Philly to compliment the PMD men on the left side. But the damn expansion draft stops that from being a possibility.

Provy Cernak
Sanheim Myers
Ghost Braun

Stupid expansion.......lol.

 

[PullHard]

I wouldn't mind Yzerman offering Jake Walman the max amount before there is compensation

If St. Louis matches, then you can get aggressive with Dunn

 

[simon IC]

I wouldn't mind Yzerman offering Jake Walman the max amount before there is compensation

If St. Louis matches, then you can get aggressive with Dunn

You could have Walman for a late pick. We are loaded with players and prospects on the left side. As for Dunn, offer sheet him! I would gladly take Detroit's 2021 2nd for him.

 

[TheKingSlayer]

You could have Walman for a late pick. We are loaded with players and prospects on the left side. As for Dunn, offer sheet him! I would gladly take Detroit's 2021 2nd for him.

No you wouldn`t, that would be a pretty awful return for Dunn.

 

[Stuzchuk]

You're wrong. RFA's can negotiate a contract with any NHL team that they choose. Its no different than UFA's until the actual contract is signed.

yup, RFAs & UFAs same process

as per OP, I'd like Cernak on the SENS. Better player than any RHD that we currently have on the Sens (Zaitsev, Gudbransson, J. Brown, Zub)

E. Cernak, 20M x 5yrs

 

[voxel]

I would be interested in seeing if Ethan Bear could be enticed. Min. bottom pair with 2nd pair upside...give a 2*$2.5 M a try....he is worth a second

I doubt Bear signs for that low amount. He signs for a tad higher than Nurse’s bridge deal.

Oilers can always send down a forward as they have a full roster

 

[danyhabsfan]

Usually these lower level offer sheet player don't wanna screw up their team that drafted them.




People have no idea how offer sheet works.

 

[Dicky113]

I doubt Boston want to pay Debrusk 4.3M. Good value for a second Rounder for someone that has some cap space

 

[TK 421]

No you wouldn`t, that would be a pretty awful return for Dunn.

What exactly do you think Dunn is worth?

I've posed this question on the Blues board and some of our posters seem to think he's worth a late 1st(even a late 1st+ in one case). I have doubts he'd bring that kind of return with the expansion draft looming and many teams already have 3 defensemen they want to protect. If expansion wasn't imminent then sure I could see that as a possibility but still far from a certainty given we're talking about a guy who has played exclusively 3rd LD in his career so far. If he had played in the top 4 and had some kind of track record there then getting a 1st is more easily justified from the acquiring team.

 

[sureloss]

You are right but The issue is he isn't anywhere near worth $4.36 M per...I can justify going to $2.5 as its ~$750K overpay on a bridge...

Which is another reason you don't see many offer sheets.

For an offer sheet to be effective, the contract must be poison enough that the original team can't match it without significant cap/financial issues but not so poison that the offering team doesn't get screwed by it.

It is a real though balance to achieve.

 

[TheKingSlayer]

What exactly do you think Dunn is worth?

I've posed this question on the Blues board and some of our posters seem to think he's worth a late 1st(even a late 1st+ in one case). I have doubts he'd bring that kind of return with the expansion draft looming and many teams already have 3 defensemen they want to protect. If expansion wasn't imminent then sure I could see that as a possibility but still far from a certainty given we're talking about a guy who has played exclusively 3rd LD in his career so far. If he had played in the top 4 and had some kind of track record there then getting a 1st is more easily justified from the acquiring team.

Because trading him now, without really giving him a chance to show what he can do in the top 4 is what comes back to bite teams in the ass. Sure the Blues have Krug and Faulk which makes him redundant of sorts, but you still need to see what you've got in a player before selling him for cheap. He's only 23 years old!

 

[ML16]

In retrospect, the Habs should have use their cap space to target Dunn via an offer sheet instead of jumping the gun on Edmunston, even if it likely means that the Toffoli signing probably does not happens later on... Dunn would indeed have been a perfect fit to play along Shea Weber and the prospect of such a pairing would definitely have make Dunn seriously consider the move, even if meant a lateral move salary-wise (max. 4.3M AAV). I humbly think the potential impact of a PMLD like Dunn > the difference between Toffoli vs Armia in the Habs’ current top-9.

 

[DomBarr]

Which is another reason you don't see many offer sheets.

For an offer sheet to be effective, the contract must be poison enough that the original team can't match it without significant cap/financial issues but not so poison that the offering team doesn't get screwed by it.

It is a real though balance to achieve.

for sure but this season the cap environment is correct for it flat cap, teams with tight cap, Covid restricting revenue potential, etc...I proposed Ethan Bear but Tampa is really the team that is up against it...
Tampa can offer cup contending team and tax free state but has no room to maneuver
Other teams can potentially offer a greater role on a team, higher salary, longer term and in some cases also a cup contending team and a tax free state.

 

[TK 421]

Because trading him now, without really giving him a chance to show what he can do in the top 4 is what comes back to bite teams in the ass. Sure the Blues have Krug and Faulk which makes him redundant of sorts, but you still need to see what you've got in a player before selling him for cheap. He's only 23 years old!

Well I've seen him look like a traffic cone during injury fill in work in the top 4 (albeit small sample size). However I've seen plenty of this player overall and feel very confident the Blues shouldn't be committing to a multi-year for him with Krug and Faulk about to start their 7 year deals.

Furthermore the Blues have a better defender in Mikkola ready to take Dunn's spot in the lineup and Perunovich who plays a similar style to Dunn is in the pipeline.

If the Blues do keep him for now trying to extract max value then Mikkola is forced to play in the AHL on a one way deal and the Blues are running all 3 of Krug, Faulk and Dunn on the same defense unit. This only makes sense to do if you want the Blues to have the highest possible draft position. Imo you can't shelter all 3 of those guys at the same time.

So then the question remains. What is Dunn worth? Idk but I suspect it's less than some of the 1st or 1st+ estimates.

 

[TheKingSlayer]

Well I've seen him look like a traffic cone during injury fill in work in the top 4 (albeit small sample size). However I've seen plenty of this player overall and feel very confident the Blues shouldn't be committing to a multi-year for him with Krug and Faulk about to start their 7 year deals.

Furthermore the Blues have a better defender in Mikkola ready to take Dunn's spot in the lineup and Perunovich who plays a similar style to Dunn is in the pipeline.

If the Blues do keep him for now trying to extract max value then Mikkola is forced to play in the AHL on a one way deal and the Blues are running all 3 of Krug, Faulk and Dunn on the same defense unit. This only makes sense to do if you want the Blues to have the highest possible draft position. Imo you can't shelter all 3 of those guys at the same time.

So then the question remains. What is Dunn worth? Idk but I suspect it's less than some of the 1st or 1st+ estimates.

Perhaps you do exactly that and run a PMD with a DFD on each pairing and see how that goes for a year. Mikkola will rotate in and out of the lineup as needed. Maybe a trade in-season pops-up that would make more sense moving forward. But if you can afford them all, then you keep them all instead of selling short for no reason.

 

[TK 421]

Perhaps you do exactly that and run a PMD with a DFD on each pairing and see how that goes for a year. Mikkola will rotate in and out of the lineup as needed. Maybe a trade in-season pops-up that would make more sense moving forward. But if you can afford them all, then you keep them all instead of selling short for no reason.

They can bridge him but they'd be better off exchanging him for an equally young forward if they can't get the value they're looking for in picks. Keeping him is simply a bad call, it leaves the Blues with a weak defender on every pairing. So there's several very good reasons to move him and if the only justification for keeping him is to wait for max value then it's an easy decision to move him now and just accept that expansion lowered his value.

Thanks for your time, having a tough go trying to nail down his trade value with expansion being a significant factor for teams so I appreciate the input.

 

[glenbuis]

In retrospect, the Habs should have use their cap space to target Dunn via an offer sheet instead of jumping the gun on Edmunston, even if it likely means that the Toffoli signing probably does not happens later on... Dunn would indeed have been a perfect fit to play along Shea Weber and the prospect of such a pairing would definitely have make Dunn seriously consider the move, even if meant a lateral move salary-wise (max. 4.3M AAV). I humbly think the potential impact of a PMLD like Dunn > the difference between Toffoli vs Armia in the Habs’ current top-9.

If you go by what you here about Dunn maybe but if you go by what ones seen recently I’m no longer sure about that. Armia will still be in top nine with Toffoli. In this case more is better

 

[mouser]

I dont think it's as easy as "sending it" right? It would likely be a negotiation process where the team goes back and forth with the agent. They wouldn't send one until there's an agreement and hes willing to potentially proceed right?

Even if a team did send one, would we hear about it before its signed ?"

Teams don’t actually “send offer sheets” to players hoping they’ll sign. Teams are fully free to negotiate with any team’s RFA’s. If the RFA and other team agree on a contract then the terms of the contract are summarized in a Offer Sheet and sent to the team holding the RFA player rights.

The Offer Sheet isn’t really an offer from a team to a RFA player. The Offer Sheet is a notification to the team holding the RFA player’s rights that the player and another team have agreed to a contract.

 

[FireGorton]

I never ever expect to see any offersheets, but shockingly enough, I am surprised nobody has sent Cernak an offer sheet.

He is exactly what pretty much every single team needs

Except Rangers

 

[Larry Hanson]

Kylington 1M for 2 yrs.
Flames are up aganst the cap, no compensation.

Usually these lower level offer sheet player don't wanna screw up their team that drafted them.

People have no idea how offer sheet works.

Usually these players have no choice. With the flat cap and desperate teams things have changed.