Speculation: Looking Ahead To 2015-2016

[My Cozen Dylan]

Okay, so I've been thinking since game 2 about next season. I will make a few assumptions and lay out a few possibilities, then I will lay out scenarios based on those possibilities. Let me know what you think.

Assumption One: The Sabres finish last (let's just extrapolate the current record and put us at 23-52-7, 53 pts) and draft McEichel.

Assumption Two: Chris Stewart is traded. For discussion purposes, let's say he goes to Pittsburgh for Jean-Sebastian Dea and a 2016 2nd.

Assumption Three: Drew Stafford is traded. For discussion purposes, let's say he goes to Boston for Ryan Spooner and a 2015 3rd.

Assumption Four: Andrej Meszaros, Andre Benoit, Torrey Mitchell, Tyson Strachan, and Patrick Kaleta are traded/let go via free agency.

Assumption Five: Grigorenko, Armia, Pysyk, McCabe, Ruhwedel are all NHL-ready next year.

Assumption Six: Mike Weber's contract is somehow moved (buyout, trade, waivers, etc).

Okay, so let's move on to the Possibilities:

Possibility One: One of Michal Neuvirth or Jhonas Enroth is traded. Right now I'd lean towards Ewok since Neuvirth has outplayed him significantly.

Possibility Two: Tyler Myers is traded. I REALLY hope not because I like his play this season and I think he will be a really solid top-4 for a long time.

Possibility Three: The Sabres go after some top UFAs on July 1, and sign, first and foremost, a LHD. Let's call him Marc Staal.

Possibility Four: The Sabres trade a package of players for a true top-6 veteran RW.

Alright, now I'll put down some rosters with different combinations of Possibilities (All the assumptions are, well, assumed in all cases).

Roster One (Possibility One only)
Matt Moulson - JaConnor McEichel - Sam Reinhart
Cody Hodgson - Tyler Ennis - Brian Gionta
Zemgus Girgensons - Mikhail Grigorenko - Joel Armia
Marcus Foligno - Cody McCormick - Johan Larsson
Nicolas Deslauriers, Tim Schaller

Josh Gorges - Tyler Myers
Nikita Zadorov - Rasmus Ristolainen
Jake McCabe - Mark Pysyk
Chad Ruhwedel

Neuvirth - Lieuwen

Okay, in this scenario, Jhonas Enroth is the G traded.

Roster Two (Possibilities Two & Three)
Matt Moulson - JaConnor McEichel - Sam Reinhart
Cody Hodgson - Tyler Ennis - Brian Gionta
Zemgus Girgensons - Mikhail Grigorenko - Joel Armia
Marcus Foligno - Cody McCormick - Johan Larsson
Nicolas Deslauriers, Tim Schaller

Marc Staal - Rasmus Ristolainen
Nikita Zadorov - (D-man acquired in Myers trade)
Jake McCabe - Mark Pysyk
Chad Ruhwedel

Neuvirth - Enroth


Roster Three (Possibility Four Only)
Matt Moulson - JaConnor McEichel - (True top-6 RW)
Tyler Ennis - Sam Reinhart - Brian Gionta
Zemgus Girgensons - Mikhail Grigorenko - Joel Armia
Nicolas Deslauriers - Cody McCormick - Johan Larsson
Tim Schaller, XXX

Josh Gorges - Tyler Myers
Nikita Zadorov - Rasmus Ristolainen
Chad Ruhwedel - Mark Pysyk
XXX

Neuvirth - Enroth

Okay, so the trade made for the true top-6 RW is Hodgson, Foligno, and McCabe.

Roster Four (All Possibilities Here)
Matt Moulson - JaConnor McEichel - (True top-6 RW)
Tyler Ennis - Sam Reinhart - Brian Gionta
Zemgus Girgensons - Mikhail Grigorenko - Joel Armia
Nicolas Deslauriers - Cody McCormick - Johan Larsson
Tim Schaller, XXX

Marc Staal - Rasmus Ristolainen
Nikita Zadorov - (D-man acquired in Myers trade)
Chad Ruhwedel - Mark Pysyk
XXX

Neuvirth - Lieuwen

This roster obviously goes through the biggest overhaul.


Alright, the main questions are:
1. Which roster do you want to see?
2. Where do you think we'll end up in the standings with that roster?
3. Anything I forgot/omitted?

I'm curious to hear what all of you have to say.

Click to read more...

 

[sabrebuild]

Why in the world is Zemgod your third line wing in all of your possibilities? I'm flabbergasted. ...

 

[BananaSquad]

Why in the world is Zemgod your third line wing in all of your possibilities? I'm flabbergasted. ...

Yup top 6 or bust. Also McEichel - Reinhart on our top line next season is trouble.

 

[Zman5778]

Yup top 6 or bust. Also McEichel - Reinhart on our top line next season is trouble.

Not to mention that doing McEichel/Reinhart/Grigroenko as our top 3 centers isn't exactly a smart thing right now.

We NEED a veteran 2nd/3rd line center that can shift to win when the kids are truly ready.

 

[start winnin]

I think Thornton or Marleau could be possible. San Jose's window is closing and I think it's possible they want to get some value out of them. I wouldn't mind giving our 2016 1st round pick and a decent prospect or two for either of them. They would be tremendous for our kids. I honestly think that either of those two players would bring us out of the basement with progression of our players + FA additions.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

For the record the lines were just kind of an outline, a way to put the player down on the post. Nothing really set in stone.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I think Thornton or Marleau could be possible. San Jose's window is closing and I think it's possible they want to get some value out of them. I wouldn't mind giving our 2016 1st round pick and a decent prospect or two for either of them. They would be tremendous for our kids. I honestly think that either of those two players would bring us out of the basement with progression of our players + FA additions.

Buffalo get's the draft and we go and trade our 1st round pick that year. Ouch.

 

[sabrebuild]

I think Thornton or Marleau could be possible. San Jose's window is closing and I think it's possible they want to get some value out of them. I wouldn't mind giving our 2016 1st round pick and a decent prospect or two for either of them. They would be tremendous for our kids. I honestly think that either of those two players would bring us out of the basement with progression of our players + FA additions.

Both of those guys have NTC pretty sure and can't imagine why they would agree to come here.

 

[sabrebuild]

For the record the lines were just kind of an outline, a way to put the player down on the post. Nothing really set in stone.

So you made 4 different outlines, all of which had Girgs, our current number 1 center, who is the only forward who regularly drives play, and while not set in stone, you never thought to maybe put one in were he was maybe a center? Its fine, you made a boo boo, clearly you spent a lot of time thinking about it and missed that detail. The rest are all interesting possibilities.

 

[LottoPlease]

So you made 4 different outlines, all of which had Girgs, our current number 1 center, who is the only forward who regularly drives play, and while not set in stone, you never thought to maybe put one in were he was maybe a center? Its fine, you made a boo boo, clearly you spent a lot of time thinking about it and missed that detail. The rest are all interesting possibilities.

Agreed, Girgs is the man right now. Ideally everyone pans out and we're afforded crazy depth, but '15/'16 may not be the time for that just yet.

 

[Husko]

Not to mention that doing McEichel/Reinhart/Grigroenko as our top 3 centers isn't exactly a smart thing right now.

We NEED a veteran 2nd/3rd line center that can shift to win when the kids are truly ready.

Ehh. We have four potential young centers (ZG, MG, SR, and McEichel) on the roster next season. Even without bringing someone in, at least one of them has to slide to wing. Bring in a center and two of them do. Then there's also the likes of Ennis and Hodgson. I'm perfectly content with those six, Gionta, Moulson, and Foligno/Armia making up our top nine next season. If keeping the young kids off the top line is that much of a concern you can always go with:

Moulson-Girgensons-Ennis
Hodgson-Reinhart-Gionta
McEichel-Grigorenko-Armia


Absolutely, positively, the #1 target IMO should be Staal or Sekera to round out our defense soundly. Then wait a year for the likes of Okposo, Lucic, O'Reilly, and a few others to hit UFA for us to pounce on a big ticket winger.


2016-2017 Roster:

Moulson-McEichel-Okposo
Hodgson-Reinhart-Girgenson
Ennis-Grigorenko-Armia
Foligno-Flynn-Foligno

Gorges-Myers
Sekera-Risto
Zads-Pysyk
McCabe

I'll take it

(yes I've overthought this)

 

[dire wolf]

I'm assuming we don't get McEichel. Seems like a 50/50 proposition right now. That way, I won't be disappointed.

Besides that, you have so many assumptions that my head hurts a bit.

 

[jBuds]

I'm assuming we don't get McEichel. Seems like a 50/50 proposition right now. That way, I won't be disappointed.

Besides that, you have so many assumptions that my head hurts a bit.

This is the right approach. Prepare for the realness that is no iKle or Mickdanatch. Simultaneously, we expedite the rebuild by being better faster.

And even without one of those two, we still add THREE first rounders to the top prospect stable as it currently stands.

Sick el o I ef

 

[Bps21*]

Actually we don't expidite ****. The record of this year has nothing to do wih what happens in the future. The team would still be playing awful unsustainable hockey we'd just be out an elite prospect like usual. I can't think of anything that would matter less positively for the future than finishing where you ridiculously think they are capable of finishing despite any logic that points to it.

 

[jBuds]

Actually we don't expidite ****. The record of this year has nothing to do wih what happens in the future. The team would still be playing awful unsustainable hockey we'd just be out an elite prospect like usual. I can't think of anything that would matter less positively for the future than finishing where you ridiculously think they are capable of finishing despite any logic that points to it.

Got it. So in our goal of getting better, if it happens sooner than you thought, it's disastrous?

That logically follows!

So we add Zacha at 7, and two more first round talents... To the top prospect pool already ranked as such WITHOUT those three... AND we've gotten better with the current roster, most notably the three youngest key components... And it's a disaster?

In your ultimate goal to tank, you conveniently forget the reason why you wish to tank: to improve and become a good team.

That summed up accurately?

Edit: expedite

 

[TehDoak]

Not to be a buzzkill, but the 2014-15 roster speculation thread is covering 15/16 roster speculation as well. Could easily merge this thread over there.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Got it. So in our goal of getting better, if it happens sooner than you thought, it's disastrous?

That logically follows!

So we add Zacha at 7, and two more first round talents... To the top prospect pool already ranked as such WITHOUT those three... AND we've gotten better with the current roster, most notably the three youngest key components... And it's a disaster?

In your ultimate goal to tank, you conveniently forget the reason why you wish to tank: to improve and become a good team.

That summed up accurately?

Edit: expedite

wait, shouldn't I be posting this?

 

[sabresEH]

Are any of these rosters cap compliant? I want the kids in the line up as much as anyone but we still need to reach the cap floor.
We have 35mill committed to next season with 5 forward, 3 defence, and 2 goalie spots to fill. 4 of the 5 forward spots could potentially be filled from within the organization(Grigs, Armia, Larsson, McEichel/Top pick). 2 of the 3 d spots as well(Pysyk, Ruhwedel, McCabe).

 

[Bps21*]

This team is maybe 20% what the team will be when they're good. So yes...I don't care if it manages to play it's way into a worse pick. It doesn't help me at all.

Did you sleep through the last decade? You want to go back to that?

Girgensons, Ristolainen, Zadorov...they get better...super. But this team isn't the team that will be the team. And this team winning meaningless points when they have an actual shot at getting the thing that will get them over the hump they NEVER get over... terrible. Flat out terrible.

And you continue to ignore the most important part. WINS DO NOT EQUAL BETTER PLAY.

They are the worst possession team in this league by a margin that SOMETIMES DOESN'T EVEN FIT ON THE GRAPH. They aren't BETTER. So winning more...especially, again, with this team of misfits, is counterproductive. Fully. Truly. Honestly. Let's see them get in the same ballpark as the other bad teams in actual PLAY. That's what you should want...but no...you want POINTS? WTF.

 

[dire wolf]

I'm not of the opinion that we need McEichel to successfully rebuild into a legitimate contender. Would I like one of them? Of course. But even without McEichel, we have the best prospect pool in the NHL and 5 picks in the first 2 rounds of a very good draft, with one of those picks almost surely in the top 5. Not to mention the additional picks we will likely get from trades at the deadline (e.g., Stewart or Stafford). So, I'm not looking at the current roster and thinking that we're going to keep it and just add McEichel. Just look at our current roster, prospect pool and draft picks, and try to imagine how good the team can be in 2-4 years, even without McE (some of the guys might not be here -- like Ennis or Hodgson, but then they will be converted into other players or picks):

Forwards: Reinhart, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, Baptiste, Bailey, Ennis, Hodgson, Fasching, Compher, Hurley, Cornel, Olofsson, Larsson, Lemieux, Carrier, Possler, etc.

Defense: Risto, Zadovov, Myers, McCabe, Pysyk, Martin, Ruhwedel

Goalies: Ullmark, Johansson, Makarov, Petersen (on top of Enroth or Noidberg if they are still relevant)

Now sprinkle at least 5 (and probably more) picks in the first 2 rounds of the next draft, plus picks in 2016, and a random assortment of traded-for or UFA vets and you should be looking at a legitimate contender even without McEichel

 

[ZeroPT*]

I'm not of the opinion that we need McEichel to successfully rebuild into a legitimate contender. Would I like one of them? Of course. But even without McEichel, we have the best prospect pool in the NHL and 5 picks in the first 2 rounds of a very good draft, with one of those picks almost surely in the top 5. Not to mention the additional picks we will likely get from trades at the deadline (e.g., Stewart or Stafford). So, I'm not looking at the current roster and thinking that we're going to keep it and just add McEichel. Just look at our current roster, prospect pool and draft picks, and try to imagine how good the team can be in 2-4 years, even without McE (some of the guys might not be here -- like Ennis or Hodgson, but then they will be converted into other players or picks):

Forwards: Reinhart, Grigorenko, Girgensons, Armia, Baptiste, Bailey, Ennis, Hodgson, Fasching, Compher, Hurley, Cornel, Olofsson, Larsson, Lemieux, Carrier, Possler, etc.

Defense: Risto, Zadovov, Myers, McCabe, Pysyk, Martin, Ruhwedel

Goalies: Ullmark, Johansson, Makarov, Petersen (on top of Enroth or Noidberg if they are still relevant)

Now sprinkle at least 5 (and probably more) picks in the first 2 rounds of the next draft, plus picks in 2016, and a random assortment of traded-for or UFA vets and you should be looking at a legitimate contender even without McEichel

Nah dude didn't you hear? If we don't get McEichel the rebuild is a failure

 

[Husko]

How has yet another thread devolved into tank v. no tank?

 

[dire wolf]

How has yet another thread devolved into tank v. no tank?

Because a large contingent of fans is more worried about tanking than watching good hockey games and watching our young players develop and learn how to win. Personally, I'd be thrilled if the team finishes in 9th place again this year (it will never happen). The rebuild has already been set in motion. Success comes through good drafting in all rounds at all positions, not just from the top 3 picks of the 1st round.

 

[ZeroPT*]

How has yet another thread devolved into tank v. no tank?

I'm 500% on board with the tank. What I'm not on board with is people thinking that if we miss out on McEichel that we're doomed. We don't NEED them to win a cup. They'd help, but landing Marner,Strome or Hanifin would still be huge.

 

[Blitz]

I think Thornton or Marleau could be possible. San Jose's window is closing and I think it's possible they want to get some value out of them. I wouldn't mind giving our 2016 1st round pick and a decent prospect or two for either of them. They would be tremendous for our kids. I honestly think that either of those two players would bring us out of the basement with progression of our players + FA additions.

Meh. Jumbo and Marleau are both starting to show their miles... There may not be anything left by the time the roster catches up to them. If we are going to go after a legit 1st liner I would rather throw a package at LA for a guy we've been after for years - Dustin Brown.

He embodies everything this team needs, is a local, and currently plays for a team that is going to have cap issues after this year.