Value of: Logan Brown to STL

[playasRus]

Even with Byfield, Logan Brown probably has such a boom ceiling, despite the large bust that trading him for another project isn't worth it when you factor in things like:
- he's been riddled with injuries the last three-four years, basically every year since draft, really hampering his development
- he's always been projected to take years before being serviceable
- his value is at an all time low, no one's going to give a top tier prospect for him

So even hoping he likely tops out as a 2C in 3 years is worth holding on to him, were he to have a 95% chance to bust, than to get a project/mid tier prospect that's projected to be a third liner or bottom pairing

 

[Langdon Alger]

blows my mind when I read stuff like this
Brown has progressed every year substantially

Guys like Blake Wheeler and Kevin Hayes were not even PPG players in the ncaa at 21

Why would this blow your mind? I’m not saying Brown is bad, just that he needs to make the nhl as a full time player soon. If he’s still in the minors two years from now I’d be concerned. He’s not 19. He’s 22. I’d be dissapointed if he wasn’t a full time nhl player next year.

 

[BlueDream]

The Blues don’t even need Brown. I don’t really have any interest in giving up assets for someone just because they’re from the home city.

 

[simon IC]

The Blues don’t even need Brown. I don’t really have any interest in giving up assets for someone just because they’re from the home city.

Oh, I dunno. 22 yr old 6'6" centers are always useful to have around. Keep in mind Bozak is 33 and in the last year of a contract. ROR is 29, and Schenn is 28 and plays a style that may not age well. That leaves Thomas as our only real center for the future.

 

[BlueDream]

Oh, I dunno. 22 yr old 6'6" centers are always useful to have around. Keep in mind Bozak is 33 and in the last year of a contract. ROR is 29, and Schenn is 28 and plays a style that may not age well. That leaves Thomas as our only real center for the future.

This is crazy talk. 29 and 28 are right in their primes. The Blues could get another good 5 years from ROR and Schenn. Thomas is only 20 and we also have Sundqvist at 26 who has shown he can be a 3C. And then Barbashev at 24 on the 4th line (who can also play 3rd line if need be).

So again, Brown isn’t a need. And there’s also no need to overreact about our situation when we are very deep at center...

(Not to mention I’m quite sure that at some point over the next few years we will draft someone who can play center too to keep the cupboard stocked.)

 

[bert]

Well if that scenario happens, what do the Sens want for him?

A first and a prospect if its St Louis as the first would be late and he was an 11th overall. He has been progressing very well if you watch him consistently, big body that needs time to develop and grow into it. He just keeps getting hurt but you can see the elite vision and puck handling. Talent has never been the issue for Logan. The sens biggest hole is at center so it just doesnt make alot of sense to trade him even for an equivlant prospect as the sens have lots of prospect depth so a boom bust prospect isnt the worst thing for them.

I think we are all hoping in Ottawa that one of Norris, Brown or White can be a legitimate top 6 Center if two of them are then thats amazing. We know White will be a solid third line C and the sens likley have two top 6 picks in the draft so chances are they do draft a C but it could work out that they dont. If they end up with 1st overall they are 100 percent taking Lafreniere. So that would leave only one option to draft a centerman and if they arent picking 2 or 3 with the second first rounder they likely arent going to take a center with the second pick. Drysdal or Raymond are the likely pick.

 

[MissouriMook]

Ok I was just wondering, I work in St. Louis and just met Logan and Jeff Brown the other day and they talked to me for a solid 20 mins and Logan seemed to have a good head on his shoulders. So I was just curious, thanks for the polite conversation

Great family. Logan wasn’t there, but I spent half an hour talking with Jeff and his daughter Jenna on the back lot of Village Bar when the Cup was there this fall. Really down to earth.

I think this is one of those classic cases where the cost to acquire is greater than the value of the player.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The Sens cutting bait on Logan Brown wouldn't make sense for the following reasons:
1 - The Senators knew he was high risk/high reward when they used a high draft pick on him. If the Senators were okay with the risk then, why does it all of a sudden change now?
2 - Big players take longer to develop. It makes no sense to select a big offensive player, and then get cold feet this early in his development.

The only two scenarios I can see where the Senators trade Brown:
1 - The Senators want to hedge against the expansion draft, and someone offers the Senators a 2020 1st Round pick or a valuable expansion exempt prospect. With that said, it is unlikely that the Senators will have to hedge against the expansion draft at forward because it is unlikely that the Senators will re-sign Tierney and C.Brown. The Senators have a recent track record of moving on from players when they hit UFA status.
2 - The Senators make a hockey trade for a fully developed NHL player they like who is still under 30. The other team insists on Brown as part of the return.

I don't see there being a match to send Brown to St.Louis. St.Louis doesn't have the right piece, and I don't see why the Senators would be motivated to cut bait on Brown in a 'best offer' situation.

 

[FlyguyOX]

I liked what I saw from Brown this year. He’s going to be very good.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

Logan Brown before turning 22:
NHL: 9P in 29GP
AHL: 70P in 81GP

Mark Stone before turning 22:
NHL: 9P in 25GP
AHL: 86P in 98GP

Very similar. Before everyone goes and calls him a bust. He's still developing well.

His skating was an early issue and we've seen steady development in that regard. Just like we saw Stone do after he got drafted. He didn't breakout into the NHL until his 22 year old season.

His biggest challenge is staying healthy. If he can do that, he's a Top 6 C in the NHL in the near future.

I doubt Dorion trades him. He was his first draft pick as GM and he traded a 3rd to move up ONE SPOT to get him. And after witnessing what Zibanejad has turned into, there's no way Dorion will let got of Logan Brown.

I really, really don't want to trade him. But if we were to deal him home to STL, I think a Kyrou swap is real close, maybe a small add from STL.

Brown+Reilly for Kyrou+Steen

Then maybe STL sends a 3rd to Ottawa for Steen back at 50% salary for his final year. Is that even allowed lol

 

[Samsquanch]

This would make more sense if the Sens didnt need exactly the kind of player that Logan Brown has the chance to become.

You basically have to see what he can do next year after having the patience of a saint and keeping him down, despite the fact that he was clearly the most skilled C in the organization. It be like pulling out a steak for dinner at 5pm and then marinading it for 4 hours first, despite being really hungry and tired, just because maximizing your poor mans Rib eye steak from the superstore half price bin is the right thing to do.

His vision is 1st line caliber, and his size and skill are too good to ignore, and because its not skating that will ever hold him back (arguably not a strength - but not at all a weakness). And even though other guys like Norris and Formenton are basically sure fire NHLers and possibly ahead of Logan Brown, hes still the most offensively skilled prospect and elite passing player in the organization - and the only C prospect with legit 1st line ability.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

We're slow cooking Brown for good reason. His injury history and size (amazing height but no muscle when drafted) meant that he needed a lot more time than your average prospect. He's a risky prospect to have, but the kid has a lot of Spezza-like qualities with his vision and playmaking. If he manages to put it all together, he could be a PPG 1C in the NHL.

I would hate to move him. His upside and overall skills package is just too difficult to get. I'd rather hold onto him and see him bust, than to move him when he's right on the cusp of making it as an NHLer.