Lockout V: Take the Long Way Home

[Butch 19]

When you are looking at the math, and can see it will not be anywhere close to 50/50 for 3-4 years... does it take much time to really consider it?

NHL offers 54, 52, 50.5 (something like that with make whole), and the PA comes back with something that would never hit 50/50 due to escrow limits... what more thought is there to do?

One side is looking for 50/50, and the other never really comes close.

According to the NHLPA: $0 now > 50/50 in a few years (good luck with that!)

 

[thinkwild]

Im going to guess that the vast majority of the PA that are taking an interest in the negotiations are far more clued in to whats happening than any of the couch potatoes taking pot shots at their intelligence from the peanut gallery. Im sure its also easy to find many PA members not interested in the issues at all and who know just as little as the peanut gallery.

The players have accepted the concept of getting to 50-50. A huge concession given record revenues and profits and cba history. Of course not right away, that's what make whole is all about. But its the owners who first thought they can make whole out of escrow money, and then by cancelling all or most of a season and rendering it moot since revenues are so low. And as long as the mob syndicate and their one trick pony consigliere hold to that position, there are likely going to be court cases because the players will probably be better off that way.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

Why should they?

They're giving up percentage. Not all of it. But lots of it.

Now, what are you giving up?

The players aren't "giving up" anything. Right now they're making 0% of $0 of revenue. When they finally sign a new CBA they should be thankful the league is giving them 50% of anything.....since they aren't making squat right now.

 

[Dado]

The players aren't "giving up" anything. Right now they're making 0% of $0 of revenue.

By that logic, the owners are offering up anything, either.

 

[Morgoth Bauglir]

By that logic, the owners are offering up anything, either.

Considering the number of teams that are losing money, the Owners are SAVING money by not playing.

 

[LPHabsFan]

Why should they?

They're giving up percentage. Not all of it. But lots of it.

Now, what are you giving up?

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=56786169&highlight=#post56786169

And as far as why they should, because simply put if they don't then the league isn't prepared to operate and therefore no jobs for those players. It's their choice. Negotiate fairly and honestly or continue to be locked out.

Edit: Also http://www.truehockey.com/articles/New-Years-Solution-ComingPlus-What-the-Owners-Have-Given-NHLPA

 

[stuffradio]

By that logic, the owners are offering up anything, either.

Not very sound interpreting. The owners have financial investments in the team/building etc. The players have time, working out, and energy they invest. The time and energy is something anyone gives up when they work for a company. Many people work out also without working for anyone. The only thing tangible the players give up is talent and their body for the team.

It's not to say that's not something substantial, but they want to give up their body for the team since that's what they signed up to do to make more in one year than most people would make in their life. Don't feel sorry for the players, they live a very good life.

 

[Pepper]

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nhl/sto...-kuraly?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Good article about the effects of expansion in US

 

[Samzilla]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=56786169&highlight=#post56786169

And as far as why they should, because simply put if they don't then the league isn't prepared to operate and therefore no jobs for those players. It's their choice. Negotiate fairly and honestly or continue to be locked out.

Edit: Also http://www.truehockey.com/articles/New-Years-Solution-ComingPlus-What-the-Owners-Have-Given-NHLPA

Just a warning for anyone else, the bolded link has spoilers to the USA v Germany world juniors game. Thought I was just reading an article about the lockout, nope. Bonus world junior spoilers! Was looking forward to watching the repeat at 4:30. Boo urns.

 

[KINGS17]

Im going to guess that the vast majority of the PA that are taking an interest in the negotiations are far more clued in to whats happening than any of the couch potatoes taking pot shots at their intelligence from the peanut gallery. Im sure its also easy to find many PA members not interested in the issues at all and who know just as little as the peanut gallery.

The players have accepted the concept of getting to 50-50. A huge concession given record revenues and profits and cba history. Of course not right away, that's what make whole is all about. But its the owners who first thought they can make whole out of escrow money, and then by cancelling all or most of a season and rendering it moot since revenues are so low. And as long as the mob syndicate and their one trick pony consigliere hold to that position, there are likely going to be court cases because the players will probably be better off that way.

This is the real world where numbers matter, not concepts. The NHLPA has proposed a deal that may get to 50/50 right before the CBA would expire if the NHLPA had their way on the length of the agreement.

The players have given nothing that matters.

 

[mossey3535]

While I generally agree with you mossey, what else could the NHLPA be doing right now?

Since they've last met face to face, the NHLPA has publically stated that they're willing to resume discussions without preconditions. Both Fehrs have said this. The players have said this. The NHL has expressed no desire to meet unless the NHLPA accepts certain terms from their last proposal. If the NHLPA doesn't want to unconditionally accept those terms, then what else can they do?

So here we are, waiting for one side to blink again.

In my opinion, a 7+ year deal at 50/50 should be considered a monumental win for the owners. Everything else is icing on the cake. The owners are threatening to cancel an entire season because of mole hills they call mountains. Doesn't make sense to me. I still think the owners are posturing and will get a deal for a 48 game season.

Well, since I don't really trust the public PR spin, I think there's a lot they could be doing.

First of all, if antitrust/DOI works, it will be because there is movement available from both sides. Neither the NHL or NHLPA is going to cave completely from their position, even if they are staring a protracted battle in court in the face. Again, this will be settled at the bargaining table and both sides know it.

So both sides saying that the other isn't budging is a load of BS. Now, there isn't a huge amount of wiggle room, but it does exist. Otherwise one or both sides would simply say - ok, no more negotiations until February or something. And actually mean it. For example, the NHL could cancel the season right now. But they're not. Ergo, some room for negotiation exists.

Here is a really important point - why not meet with preconditions. Earlier in the negotiations I can see why the NHLPA did not want to do this. It made sense with their stonewall strategy. Now, it is just silly. Both sides will eventually compromise. DOI/antitrust is simply meant to accelerate that.

The ironic thing is that the NHLPA has taken a weapon like antitrust litigation meant to accelerate the process ... and then continues to stall.

Again, the NHL wants to meet with preconditions, but there is no hard requirement. Here is a precondition that would reboot everything: "Let's restart negotiations from 50/50 split, the owners pay $211M Make Whole."

How is this disadvantageous to the NHLPA? The portions of the previous package are implied to be on the table and everyone knows it. They won't just 'go away' because it's been offered already just like the 24% rollback in 2005.

The NHLPA, in this entire process, HAS NEVER SYSTEMATICALLY PROBED where the owners could compromise. Again, in the 'package' they tried to modify ALL THREE of the owner's preconditions. That is a move for September, not now. Why not modify ONE condition? Why not throw in a different incentive for the owners?

So far Fehr has been all about the GRAND GESTURE. He doesn't seem to understand subtlety and he continually tries to hit a home run for the players in every proposal.

So yes, there is a lot the NHLPA could be doing that would get them back to the bargaining table.

 

[KINGS17]

Why should they?

They're giving up percentage. Not all of it. But lots of it.

Now, what are you giving up?

The owners aren't going to give up anything substantial. When it has been so lopsided in one side's favor for 20 years, there is only one side that can concede.

 

[JAX]

Im going to guess that the vast majority of the PA that are taking an interest in the negotiations are far more clued in to whats happening than any of the couch potatoes taking pot shots at their intelligence from the peanut gallery. Im sure its also easy to find many PA members not interested in the issues at all and who know just as little as the peanut gallery.

The players have accepted the concept of getting to 50-50. A huge concession given record revenues and profits and cba history. Of course not right away, that's what make whole is all about. But its the owners who first thought they can make whole out of escrow money, and then by cancelling all or most of a season and rendering it moot since revenues are so low. And as long as the mob syndicate and their one trick pony consigliere hold to that position, there are likely going to be court cases because the players will probably be better off that way.

Yes, that's definatly a better idea then working from the 82 game schedule and make whole the league already offered. The players are being mislead and do you really think they would rather be in court? but they have back themselves into a corner now for this senseless fight they are after.

 

[cobra427]

If the NHLPA learned anything from the last CBA, and could do it over again, what would it be? I think it would be to have settled earlier, not missed a season, and made the deal longer, say 10 years. The NHLPA made out well in the last deal, and could have made out better. Why they have not looked at this deal the same way in reference to the last CBA?

If they want to "die on the cross", and be an example, sit out for 2 years, and have there legacy be that they beat the owners, started a new league, or whatever. I guess if they are willing to pay the price, all 700 of them, that must be the goal. Makes sense to me....

 

[BLONG7]

Considering the number of teams that are losing money, the Owners are SAVING money by not playing.

This is very true...Rangers, Leafs and Habs are the only 3 losing here, big time...the rest are actually saving money...

 

[Riptide]

This is very true...Rangers, Leafs and Habs are the only 3 losing here, big time...the rest are actually saving money...

No, there's others posting pretty profits (Van, Detroit, Philly, Pens, etc). However they're not reaping it in like the big 3.

 

[NJDevs26]

If the NHLPA learned anything from the last CBA, and could do it over again, what would it be? I think it would be to have settled earlier, not missed a season, and made the deal longer, say 10 years. The NHLPA made out well in the last deal, and could have made out better. Why they have not looked at this deal the same way in reference to the last CBA?

If they want to "die on the cross", and be an example, sit out for 2 years, and have there legacy be that they beat the owners, started a new league, or whatever. I guess if they are willing to pay the price, all 700 of them, that must be the goal. Makes sense to me....

Thing about that is, the deal the players wound up getting in July was much better than what they were being offered in February (a flat $42 million cap with no linkage), long-term anyway. They took a hit in the short term with the $39 million cap that went up to $70 million and HRR going back up to 57%.

People keep harping on the money the players are losing 'now' but on some level you have to respect that it's not the big concern for them.

 

[Hire Sather]

Good bye salary cap!!! Enjoy retirement Bettman!

Too bad we're probably going to lose at least a year to put this to rest.

Why is it do you feel the players gain leverage as this goes on?

You do realize how absurd that is, right?

The players are losing their main income.

The owners are NOT losing their main source of income.

Thats all that needs to be said

 

[Luck 6]

Ya I really don't see how anyone thinks the players are gaining any leverage by holding out further.

 

[NJDevs26]

Ya I really don't see how anyone thinks the players are gaining any leverage by holding out further.

The only way they 'gain' leverage once the season is canceled is through the court, which is Fehr's specialty (see '94-95 baseball strike resolution). Of course the lawfirm of Bettman, Daly and Batterman know something about court too, unlike their MLB counterparts.

They're pretty much at the last pressure point before then, and so far the owners haven't budged.

 

[MNNumbers]

No, there's others posting pretty profits (Van, Detroit, Philly, Pens, etc). However they're not reaping it in like the big 3.

Riptide,

Thanks for all the number work. I am looking at our spreadsheet about the latest offers. I am not sure exactly what is wrong, but it looks to me like there is an error in the calculation of revenue, especially for the year ending 2013. I see greater revenue growth there in real dollars than in any other year, so I think the math in the spread sheet is off some how.

Thanks again.

 

[metalfoot]

At what point do both sides see that the collateral damage to the fanbase from their ongoing 100-years-war is going to destroy the revenue (and thus profits) to both sides? I think Bettman and the owners have overplayed their hand if they think the fans will come streaming back without serious incentive at this point, and I think Fehr and the players have been a little too cavalier in their attitude towards the negotiation process. They must know that with the US market, which makes up over 3/4 of the teams, still in an ongoing recession, the financials are simply not as favorable as they were at the time of the last CBA negotiation.

I guess I'm just a lonely voice out in a small town on the Canadian prairies crying for sanity and serenity in a world gone mad...

 

[RedWingsNow*]

The players aren't "giving up" anything. Right now they're making 0% of $0 of revenue. When they finally sign a new CBA they should be thankful the league is giving them 50% of anything.....since they aren't making squat right now.

NHL should entrust their franchises to AHL talent then

 

[RedWingsNow*]

Why is it do you feel the players gain leverage as this goes on?

You do realize how absurd that is, right?

The players are losing their main income.

The owners are NOT losing their main source of income.

Thats all that needs to be said

The players aren't losing anything except money they haven't earned yet.

The owners are watching money they already had and invested lose value.

That's all that needs to be said.

 

[JAX]

The players aren't losing anything except money they haven't earned yet.

The owners are watching money they already had and invested lose value.

That's all that needs to be said.

Interesting theory.....