Lines this morning III (discuss latest lines & pairings here)

[Habssince89]

The Defence Thread

I've always personally felt that a team's Dcore is the most difficult to get right when building a contender. This year, we've seen Emelin switch to LD and take up a place beside Subban, Gilbert sign on and be RD with Markov, and now it seems Tinordi is the LD on the third pairing with Weaver.

Emelin-Subban
Markov-Gilbert
Tinordi-Weaver

I propose we use this thread to discuss the defence specifically throughout the year. Not just the players individually, but the pairings and the TOI as a whole.

To start things off:
1)What are your thoughts on the pairings so far this year?
2)What would you do differently?
3)Do we have an issue regarding room for Beaulieu

_______________________________

My thoughts:

1)I really, really like how our defence looks on paper, and after 8 games its just about as good as we can get with the players we have. Plus I love the balance of Left/Right handedness.

Our Physicality has gone up as well, leaving only Gilbert and markov as the "softest" D we have, but even then they can handle themselves well.

Emelin-Subban: This is the pairing I've been hoping for. Both Emelin and Subban can hit, skate and move the puck. Our #1D in Subban finally has a partner that can contribute offensively without having to stack our first pairing with Markov. As the season continues, I think we'll see Emelin break out a tiny bit offensively because teams will instinctively try to double team or cheat towards Subban, underestimating Emelin's abilities in the offensive zone.

Markov-Gilbert: This pairing is playing heavy minutes (Markov 24:55/GP, Gilbert 22:53) but they are playing well. Gilbert looked a little clumsy at times but frankly he's getting the job done. It's important to note that Markov has a RH partner, something he may not have needed in the past but it can't hurt. Markov looks pretty solid but I do hope that MT limits his icetime so he's fresher for the playoffs. Ideally, I think it would be nice to see a tiny upgrade on Gilbert, specifically to adding a more physical element to the pairing. But there's a long season ahead, and Gilbert has looked better and perhaps his reach and IQ will negate any lack of physicality.

Tinordi-Weaver: At first I was a bit skeptical about Tinordi playing with a non-puck mover, but then I came to see that Tinordi has no issue being the puck mover on the pairing. Weaver struggled early and I think that hurt Tinordi's numbers, but if you look closely Tinordi has been fantastic in the #5 role. Good skating, cautiously moving the puck up to the forwards, not getting caught taking chances, protecting the crease and standing up to physical forwards. He's only going to get better as time goes on, especially with his hitting. Weaver seems to be rounding into form, and frankly he's a fine #6, I don't expect too much out of him.

2)I would definitely include Emelin in the PP more often. Let Emelin-Gilbert be the 2nd wave D pairing and allow others than just Markov and PK to step up. It wouldn't have to be an even distribution between pairings but Emelin has shown he can make simple plays and get it to the net (as has Gilbert) and we should recognize him as an asset.

3)Beaulieu's skill and mobility should let him have no problem playing the offside, and we should look to let him draw in for Weaver, Tinordi, or (for rest purposes down the road) Markov. I'm sure injuries will happen and make the choice easy, but Beaulieu needs the minutes to grow his game, and his current playing level is enough to contribute well to the team's performance. MT has a difficult decision on his hands, but I'm sure an opportunity will come. I just hope that he isn't sulking about being spurned for Tinordi.

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[Rapala]

Shouldn't you have brought this up during that term exam GDT?

 

[Ezpz]

I'm pretty sure long term we're grooming Tinordi to replace Emelin and Beaulieu to replace Markov. Unfortunately for the other LD in our prospect pool that means they have zero chance to make the Habs in the next 3 years. Mac Bennett is our only LD prospect though.

 

[Natey]

Emelin
Showing glimpses of his old self back on his old side. His hitting and physicality are a welcome edition to the team. He still makes some errors with the puck, but he's much better at passing than he was last year. He's also in position a lot more.

Subban
When thinking smartly is one of the best defenseman in the world. He needs to re-evaluate his hitting. When he connects, it sure is awesome. But when we're up by 1 goal with less than two minutes left and he misses a huge hit, it boggles my mind. He's got so much skill and it's good to keep players on their toes, but there's also a time to play it safe.

Markov
His best games are when he controls the play. He's so smart with the puck and when he's got space, he's arguably the smartest player on the team. The guy has slown down, but he's still a wizard with the puck.

Gilbert
He moves the puck really well. Really, really well. He's positionally sound too, which I love. He's weak physically, but we knew that bringing him in. He's definitely got a lot of faults, but he's a $2.8M stop-gap and I think he's played very well. He's a solid #4, and if we make a run, hopefully a fantastic #5.

Tinordi
I will never judge a player's progression in the pre-season again. He's like night and day. His first game started poorly, but he's got progressively better each game. He's got to stop thinking he's Markov sometimes, but he's a great skater with a good pass. He's mobile and big, which is something rare in this league.

Weaver
What word describes the start of the season? Just one.. and that's AWFUL. However, over the last handful of games, he's turned back into the defenseman we saw down the stretch. He's been very good. He's a big part of our fairly solid PK (leads the team in ice-time) and he works hard. Very happy with where his game is right now.

Beaulieu
Honestly, I'm not impressed so far this year. He's shown glimpses, but overall... he's nothing like he was in the playoffs last year. He's making worse decisions, he's out of position, and he's just not bringing "it." He's still very, very talented and his outlet is one of the best on the team. He'll come around.

 

[Habssince89]

Shouldn't you have brought this up during that term exam GDT?

this is extra credit

 

[otto bond]

Emelin
Showing glimpses of his old self back on his old side. His hitting and physicality are a welcome edition to the team. He still makes some errors with the puck, but he's much better at passing than he was last year. He's also in position a lot more.

Subban
When thinking smartly is one of the best defenseman in the world. He needs to re-evaluate his hitting. When he connects, it sure is awesome. But when we're up by 1 goal with less than two minutes left and he misses a huge hit, it boggles my mind. He's got so much skill and it's good to keep players on their toes, but there's also a time to play it safe.

Markov
His best games are when he controls the play. He's so smart with the puck and when he's got space, he's arguably the smartest player on the team. The guy has slown down, but he's still a wizard with the puck.

Gilbert
He moves the puck really well. Really, really well. He's positionally sound too, which I love. He's weak physically, but we knew that bringing him in. He's definitely got a lot of faults, but he's a $2.8M stop-gap and I think he's played very well. He's a solid #4, and if we make a run, hopefully a fantastic #5.

Tinordi
I will never judge a player's progression in the pre-season again. He's like night and day. His first game started poorly, but he's got progressively better each game. He's got to stop thinking he's Markov sometimes, but he's a great skater with a good pass. He's mobile and big, which is something rare in this league.

Weaver
What word describes the start of the season? Just one.. and that's AWFUL. However, over the last handful of games, he's turned back into the defenseman we saw down the stretch. He's been very good. He's a big part of our fairly solid PK (leads the team in ice-time) and he works hard. Very happy with where his game is right now.

Beaulieu
Honestly, I'm not impressed so far this year. He's shown glimpses, but overall... he's nothing like he was in the playoffs last year. He's making worse decisions, he's out of position, and he's just not bringing "it." He's still very, very talented and his outlet is one of the best on the team. He'll come around.

Nicely said. I would add that Beaulieu needs more time and it's a matter of consistency for him.

 

[GoodKiwi]

I'm pretty sure long term we're grooming Tinordi to replace Emelin and Beaulieu to replace Markov. Unfortunately for the other LD in our prospect pool that means they have zero chance to make the Habs in the next 3 years. Mac Bennett is our only LD prospect though.

Emelin is only 28 and we're already thinking about replacing him?

 

[Ezpz]

Emelin is only 28 and we're already thinking about replacing him?

Only elite dmen age well into their 30's. Emelin won't be the same player when Beaulieu/Tinordi hit their primes in 3-4 years. Look at the guys who were 31-33 in the last couple years and lots of them had steep dropoffs in terms of play. Bieksa, Orpik, Seidenberg, Stuart, Leopold. It's not an old mans league for defensemen. Only about 30 guys are 33 or older. Markov is pretty much the only 35+ one playing great hockey still. Chara has fallen off a cliff and so have Campbell/Boyle.

 

[MXD]

Beaulieu has shown he could hold his own on the right if he doesn't get to play too hard minutes, and Weaver could really need a break. And Tinordi is close to "should never be out of the lineup" territory, if he isn't in already.

 

[Natey]

Beaulieu has shown he could hold his own on the right if he doesn't get to play too hard minutes, and Weaver could really need a break. And Tinordi is close to "should never be out of the lineup" territory, if he isn't in already.

Weaver does not need a break. He's playing like he did last year... I wouldn't take him out right now... not a chance. You'd likely have to watch him play terrible for 5 games again when he comes back.

 

[Lions999]

I hoping that when playoff time comes around that Tinordi is a beast and beaulieu has found a spot also. If that's the case I would go with: Subban Tinordi - Markov beaulieu - Emelin either Gilbert or weaver.

 

[Habssince89]

So now that Gonchar is here, who sits?

I'd personally sit Weaver, And let Tinordi get a shot against boston:

Markov-Subban
Emelin-Gilbert
Tinordi-Gonchar

I wouldn't be mad if Beaulieu stayed in though.

 

[Habsfan2731]

So now that Gonchar is here, who sits?

I'd personally sit Weaver, And let Tinordi get a shot against boston:

Markov-Subban
Emelin-Gilbert
Tinordi-Gonchar

I wouldn't be mad if Beaulieu stayed in though.

Have Gonchar/Weaver alternate games as well as Beaulieu/Tinordi, Gonchar can play the right, i'd love to see them switch up the bottom pair like this:

Tinordi-Gonchar in one game then Beaulieu-Weaver the next, DFD-OFD, OFD-DFD, keep rotating games for a while then the better pair gets in for 2 or 3 at a time, creates internal competition & keeps everyone fresh.

 

[Tyson]

Weaver should play around 60 games. He is solid as long as he stays within his limits.
Emelin seems to have regressed. He rarely hits, makes a ton of mistakes. Not sure what is wrong with him.
Gilbert is a plus 7 and has played very conservatively which is ok but I expect more offense from him. The kids need to play and develop, period! Gonchar will himself determine how much he plays. If he has it, he will play. Not sure what he has left. The last D we got from Dallas was also an aging vet and he sucked!

 

[Shutdown]

They need to manage Markov's ice time better. He's playing too much.

 

[Rapala]

So now that Gonchar is here, who sits?

I'd personally sit Weaver, And let Tinordi get a shot against boston:

Markov-Subban
Emelin-Gilbert
Tinordi-Gonchar

I wouldn't be mad if Beaulieu stayed in though.

I want Bolo to play with Weaver or Gilbert.
He needs to put up a point or two, score a goal and the dam breaks. IMO

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Continue here...

 

[Smokey Thompson]

Patch-DD-Galchenyuk
Prust-Plek-Gally (Gally and Plek will produce despite Prust. Line gets toughest minutes)
Eller-DLR-DSP
Flynn-Mitchell-Weise

 

[Brainiac]

But there was no contribution, was my point; what lines would you propose?

Just not Eller on the second line would be a good start. What has he done, in his career or recently, to surpass Plekanec? OK, let's try:

Patches-Galchenyuk-Gallagher (that's actually an exploitation line, want them to score)
Eller-Plekanec-PAP (good two way game and some scoring)
DSP-DLR-Weise (just hard to play against)
Prust/Mitchell/Flynn/Malhotra (whatever works best)

Defense:

Markov - Subban (if it aint' broke...)
Beaulieu - Petry (solid)
Emelin - Gilbert/Gonchar (actually a very good 3rd pair)

Only question mark is in net...

 

[Apoplectic Habs Fan]

lines.

Same as last month.

Why fix whats broken? Not the therrien way

 

[WhiskeySeven*]

Why would you possibly want to change the lines? We're first in the league for god's sake.

The record is fantastic, there is no reason we should change the lines

lirl

 

[Les Habitants]

Just not Eller on the second line would be a good start. What has he done, in his career or recently, to surpass Plekanec? OK, let's try:

Patches-Galchenyuk-Gallagher (that's actually an exploitation line, want them to score)
Eller-Plekanec-PAP (good two way game and some scoring)
DSP-DLR-Weise (just hard to play against)
Prust/Mitchell/Flynn/Malhotra (whatever works best)

Defense:

Markov - Subban (if it aint' broke...)
Beaulieu - Petry (solid)
Emelin - Gilbert/Gonchar (actually a very good 3rd pair)

Only question mark is in net...

lol, all you did was take out Desharnais and the lines look awesome! Addition by subtraction. Love the pairs as well.

 

[smirob]

So I've been trying to see where some of the 'chemistry myths' come from between some of our current combos. This lead me to : http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&pos=skaters&minutes=50&teamid=16&type=individual&sort=icorsi&sortdir=DESC which shows you a lot of different stats, including production rates with (and without) different teammates.

"Chemistry" , imo is linked directly to production. When people claim that certain duos have 'chemistry' this has to be linked to production, otherwise using it as a basis for lines would be unfounded.

This Pacioretty-Desharnais chemistry myth is completely unfounded.

Now I may get a lot of warranted skepticism on this thread, because advanced stats aren't always popular. The only two criteria I am looking at is GF/60 and GA/60 for pairings which I consider the most important indicators of true production.

So drum roll please:

The best centreman for Pacioretty is: Galchenyuk.
When paired together they produced a GF/60 =3.43 and GA/60 =0.76 which are the highest GF/60 and lowest GA/60 between Pacioretty and a centreman
*For those skeptical,these stats are based on 157min together. Alot of which is from Galchenyuk's approx.200 min actually playing centre

For comparisons sake, when paired with DD Pacioretty has a GF/60 =3.35 vs a GA/60 =1.48

Meaning when Pacioretty/Desharnais are paired, our top line scores less and allows almost double the amount of goals.

Feel free to debate/dispute, however GF and GA are a very basic stat and have been used forever. All this does is show the effectiveness (both offensively and defensively) of the pairing.

 

[HabsDieHard*]

Why would you possibly want to change the lines? We're first in the league for god's sake.

The record is fantastic, there is no reason we should change the lines

lirl

Therrien tomorrow "we held one of the best offensive teams in the league to just 1 goal. Why mess with a winning formula?"

 

[mariemarie]

Pacio - plek - ghetto
Chucky - dd - gallagher
Dlr - eller - dsp
Prust - mitchell - weise

Markov - subban
Emelin - petry
Beaulieu - gonchar