Lightning Prospect Watch

[Major4Boarding]

2011-Present are all that counts. And that list doesn't look anything near as impressive as the list of forwards we've drafted since that time, which is like a list of homeruns. We've drafted some D who look like they'll play in the NHL, but only one or two guys, if that, have a shot to be a real homerun pick, and the jury's even still out on them. Again, not saying Murray's "bad" at picking D, I'm just not sure his wizardry for spotting talent is as sharp with D as it is with forwards.

Then feel free to go back through each draft, remove the forward picked and substitute a defenseman still on the board and see what you come up with.

I'll help get you started

Link - 2011 Draft

Link - 2012 Draft
Now here's where I can begin to somewhat buy into your point, to an extent, with the benefit of hindsight. Koekkoek was taken while Maatta and Ceci were still on the board. Then, a few slots down Vasy taken while Maatta is still on the board. After that, based on the forwards selected vs. who was still on the board (D) it nosedives straight down.

Already posted the link for 2013 but here it is again - http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2013e.html

 

[DFC]

Then feel free to go back through each draft, remove the forward picked and substitute a defenseman still on the board and see what you come up with.

I'll help get you started

Link - 2011 Draft

Link - 2012 Draft
Now here's where I can begin to somewhat buy into your point, to an extent, with the benefit of hindsight. Koekkoek was taken while Maatta and Ceci were still on the board. Then, a few slots down Vasy taken while Maatta is still on the board. After that, based on the forwards selected vs. who was still on the board (D) it nosedives straight down.

Already posted the link for 2013 but here it is again - http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2013e.html

I'm not familiar enough with the way other teams' prospects are developing to be able to make an accurate comparison, particularly in the later rounds. But I'm sure there are < 23 year old D prospects in the league whom teams are really excited about. We might have one, maybe two, but we're not sure. Whereas on the forward side, it seems like our list dwarfs 26-28 teams.

 

[The Macho King]

Then feel free to go back through each draft, remove the forward picked and substitute a defenseman still on the board and see what you come up with.

I'll help get you started

Link - 2011 Draft

Link - 2012 Draft
Now here's where I can begin to somewhat buy into your point, to an extent, with the benefit of hindsight. Koekkoek was taken while Maatta and Ceci were still on the board. Then, a few slots down Vasy taken while Maatta is still on the board. After that, based on the forwards selected vs. who was still on the board (D) it nosedives straight down.

Already posted the link for 2013 but here it is again - http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2013e.html

Maatta's health is going to be a serious concern going forward. Ceci is good (and honestly who I hoped we would take in that position if we were going with a D there at the time), but Koekkoek has some excellent tools and I do think he'll be a good NHLer. Just give it some time.

The draft isn't about who is doing best two years after the draft. Koekkoek is still developing - we'll see how he looks in a few more years.

 

[Werewolf]

Koekkoek, as soon as this year, just might be the #1 D on the Calder Cup Championship team as a rookie @ 20 yrs of age. Take that...and give it a whirl around your collective heads. #development

 

[HoseEmDown]

Then feel free to go back through each draft, remove the forward picked and substitute a defenseman still on the board and see what you come up with.

I'll help get you started

Link - 2011 Draft

Link - 2012 Draft
Now here's where I can begin to somewhat buy into your point, to an extent, with the benefit of hindsight. Koekkoek was taken while Maatta and Ceci were still on the board. Then, a few slots down Vasy taken while Maatta is still on the board. After that, based on the forwards selected vs. who was still on the board (D) it nosedives straight down.

Already posted the link for 2013 but here it is again - http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2013e.html

I was skeptical of the Koekkoek pick just like everybody else at the time. I thought we should've traded down to grab Maata or Ceci. But after watching Koekkoek more thoroughly I was ok with it. Maatta is ridiculously overrated, he looked good on a stacked Pens team in somewhat sheltered minutes. Koekkoek can do everything Maata can but better and now that the injury bug seems to have shifted I wouldn't change the pick. Ceci I like mostly because he's a righty, Koekkoek is better all around then him too.

Not sure what you're getting at with the second part about the picks nose diving? Severson is looking really good but so is Blujus. Blujus might not have the higher upside but could be a #4 RD we need. Hart is still up for debate but since we took Blujus already and Koekkoek in the 1st I can see taking a chance on potential power forward. Dotchin in the 6th can be a steal, not sure who we missed or passed on besides Severson?

 

[Major4Boarding]

I'm not familiar enough with the way other teams' prospects are developing to be able to make an accurate comparison, particularly in the later rounds. But I'm sure there are < 23 year old D prospects in the league whom teams are really excited about. We might have one, maybe two, but we're not sure. Whereas on the forward side, it seems like our list dwarfs 26-28 teams.

Like I said... The process is still just beginning. A very precursory, high fly-over of the links I provided do any of the names of those defensemen we passed over tug at recollection? Recognizable? Draft hype? Prospect hype? The later rounds you speak of, hypothetically, if they had stuck to unearthing D talent then you most likely don't see the likes of Palat, Paquette, or Gudlevskis in our system. Look again, look at the draft positions, number of picks, and those names on the board.

Again, albeit with the benefit of hindsight.

Look, the only exercise I'm trying to lay out here is, development for defenseman takes time. Especially if Yzerman is following the DRW path of development route. What I'm attempting to do here is relax some of your reservations about Murray and the D pool. Do I even have to dig up the Feaster/Dudley era's as a comparison?

As a Draft Junkie myself, and take or leave it as you will, for what was on the board vs. those selected on either side of blueline for this organization I'm quite comfortable with what Murray & Co. have done thus far. In fact, I'd like to see this upcoming draft like last year's and keep stocking the defense. BPA (Best player Available) however, is not a bad route to go.

Maatta's health is going to be a serious concern going forward. Ceci is good (and honestly who I hoped we would take in that position if we were going with a D there at the time), but Koekkoek has some excellent tools and I do think he'll be a good NHLer. Just give it some time.

The draft isn't about who is doing best two years after the draft. Koekkoek is still developing - we'll see how he looks in a few more years.

I'm hoping that by quoting me your expounding my point as opposed to addressing something I'm saying. I'm not the one with minor concerns about Al Murray and talent assessments.

Koekkoek, as soon as this year, just might be the #1 D on the Calder Cup Championship team as a rookie @ 20 yrs of age. Take that...and give it a whirl around your collective heads. #development

#exactly

 

[Major4Boarding]

I was skeptical of the Koekkoek pick just like everybody else at the time. I thought we should've traded down to grab Maata or Ceci. But after watching Koekkoek more thoroughly I was ok with it. Maatta is ridiculously overrated, he looked good on a stacked Pens team in somewhat sheltered minutes. Koekkoek can do everything Maata can but better and now that the injury bug seems to have shifted I wouldn't change the pick. Ceci I like mostly because he's a righty, Koekkoek is better all around then him too.

I too was concerned about Koekkoek given his injury. Reaffirmed when he got injured again last season. He seems to overcome that (knocking on the biggest piece of wood I can find).

Well, what I actually said was

Now here's where I can begin to somewhat buy into your point, to an extent, with the benefit of hindsight.

In trying to understand what DFC is saying, objectively, I can somewhat see what well, what DFC was saying. Koekkoek hasn't played in the NHL whereas Maatta and Ceci have. Would I'd rather have Slater over Ceci? You bet your ass I would. Maatta isn't ridiculously overrated. That's a stretch. It was the Pens choice to thrust him into their lineup. I also wouldn't label Maatta's NHL experience as "sheltered" in as much he slotted about where he needed to be given their roster. From there climb the ladder. To me, Koekkoek and Maatta project the same, but I'm much more comfortable with Koekkoek overall. But this discussion is about our roster and development.

Not sure what you're getting at with the second part about the picks nose diving? Severson is looking really good but so is Blujus. Blujus might not have the higher upside but could be a #4 RD we need. Hart is still up for debate but since we took Blujus already and Koekkoek in the 1st I can see taking a chance on potential power forward. Dotchin in the 6th can be a steal, not sure who we missed or passed on besides Severson?

I like Severson but for what the Organization was seemingly attempting to do in 2012 draft was going with what they felt was the best forward prospect on the board, after already selecting Slater, Vasy, and Blujus. There's absolutely nothing wrong with Brian Hart, by the way. Perhaps I should have clarified after the second round?

 

[DFC]

Like I said... The process is still just beginning. A very precursory, high fly-over of the links I provided do any of the names of those defensemen we passed over tug at recollection? Recognizable? Draft hype? Prospect hype? The later rounds you speak of, hypothetically, if they had stuck to unearthing D talent then you most likely don't see the likes of Palat, Paquette, or Gudlevskis in our system. Look again, look at the draft positions, number of picks, and those names on the board.

Again, albeit with the benefit of hindsight.

Look, the only exercise I'm trying to lay out here is, development for defenseman takes time. Especially if Yzerman is following the DRW path of development route. What I'm attempting to do here is relax some of your reservations about Murray and the D pool. Do I even have to dig up the Feaster/Dudley era's as a comparison?

As a Draft Junkie myself, and take or leave it as you will, for what was on the board vs. those selected on either side of blueline for this organization I'm quite comfortable with what Murray & Co. have done thus far. In fact, I'd like to see this upcoming draft like last year's and keep stocking the defense. BPA (Best player Available) however, is not a bad route to go.



I'm hoping that by quoting me your expounding my point as opposed to addressing something I'm saying. I'm not the one with minor concerns about Al Murray and talent assessments.



#exactly

I get that it takes time. But it takes time to get them to the NHL, not so much to see them begin to take over games against their peers. We're not seeing that with our defensive prospects at the level that we've seen it with the forward prospects. We're seeing some solid prospects emerge, yes, and again, I'm not saying we're drafting defense poorly. I'm simply saying that I'm not sure Murray is as far ahead of the curve with D as he is with forwards, where his batting average is absurd.

I think a fair amount of our D prospects will turn into NHLers, and I think Murray's picks will still pan out above average in that regard. But I think assessing defense is a different animal than assessing forwards, and we'll need a homerun pick before I think we can say we're drafting D with the same effectiveness as forwards. The jury is still out on several of our picks, and particularly the guys we took last year. I think we have two guys who look like they might turn into a #3, but they still have a lot to prove before we can be optimistic about that.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I get that it takes time. But it takes time to get them to the NHL, not so much to see them begin to take over games against their peers. We're not seeing that with our defensive prospects at the level that we've seen it with the forward prospects. We're seeing some solid prospects emerge, yes, and again, I'm not saying we're drafting defense poorly. I'm simply saying that I'm not sure Murray is as far ahead of the curve with D as he is with forwards, where his batting average is absurd.

I think a fair amount of our D prospects will turn into NHLers, and I think Murray's picks will still pan out above average in that regard. But I think assessing defense is a different animal than assessing forwards, and we'll need a homerun pick before I think we can say we're drafting D with the same effectiveness as forwards. The jury is still out on several of our picks, and particularly the guys we took last year. I think we have two guys who look like they might turn into a #3, but they still have a lot to prove before we can be optimistic about that.

Which D that we drafted is disappointing to you? Nesterov from 11 has made the NHL. Koekkoek is developing well especially after his injury history. Blujus maybe didn't put up offensive numbers like you liked but his defensive game blossomed which is promising. Dotchin has become a strong two way threat especially for a 6th rounder. We didn't pick any in 13'. In 14' DeAngelo is killing it, Masin is putting up solid numbers and playing huge minutes, MacLoed is an 18 year old playing against guys in their early 20's, Thomas is really the only disappointing D we've drafted.

 

[DFC]

Which D that we drafted is disappointing to you? Nesterov from 11 has made the NHL. Koekkoek is developing well especially after his injury history. Blujus maybe didn't put up offensive numbers like you liked but his defensive game blossomed which is promising. Dotchin has become a strong two way threat especially for a 6th rounder. We didn't pick any in 13'. In 14' DeAngelo is killing it, Masin is putting up solid numbers and playing huge minutes, MacLoed is an 18 year old playing against guys in their early 20's, Thomas is really the only disappointing D we've drafted.

I wouldn't say any of them have disappointed me. It's a solid group of picks.