Speculation: Let's Talk About... Penalty Killing

Chainshot

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So the Sabres currently sit 28th in the league overall in penalty killing which is... not good. However, thinking about it over the last few and I was wondering how they looked and found something kind of odd:

They are 31st in the league on the PK at home: 68.5% success rate, having given up 23 goals (tied for most) in 73 times shorthanded (16th most/17th fewest).

They are 13th in the league on the PK on the road: 79.4% success rate, having given up 14 goals (7th fewest) in 68 times shorthanded (9th fewest).

They are about the same in terms of times shorthanded but have given up a crap ton more goals at home. So... why? What is it?
 

WhereAreTheCookies

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So the Sabres currently sit 28th in the league overall in penalty killing which is... not good. However, thinking about it over the last few and I was wondering how they looked and found something kind of odd:

They are 31st in the league on the PK at home: 68.5% success rate, having given up 23 goals (tied for most) in 73 times shorthanded (16th most/17th fewest).

They are 13th in the league on the PK on the road: 79.4% success rate, having given up 14 goals (7th fewest) in 68 times shorthanded (9th fewest).

They are about the same in terms of times shorthanded but have given up a crap ton more goals at home. So... why? What is it?
The home nets are bigger.
 

Matt Ress

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Aug 5, 2014
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What's our home PK% with 70% attendance? Half joking but they do seem more likely to play uninspired at home. Hopefully the attendance will slowly come back especially now with the Bills disappointment. PK is definitely a shift when they need focus and energy so it's not a huge surprise.
 
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Irie

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They are overly aggressive in the D zone. Both on the PK and at ES.

How many times last game were the Blues coming up ice on the rush at ES with their three forwards, and the Sabres had 4 back, but as soon as a Blues player took the zone and skated the puck wide, three Sabres swarmed the puck.

If that player gets a pass through, it's then a two on one. PK is the same.

Granato has them working hard, with a very aggressive effort, (moreso at home), but it is completely undisciplined.

If you have access to the replay, watch it closely. I know it was an away game, but they got really lucky most of the night that the Blues passing was off because they constantly sent three guys at the puck carrier, and there were opposition players wide open all over the ice all night long.
 

enthusiast

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Oct 20, 2009
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Given the sample size, maybe they’ve faced more effective PP teams at home than on the road?
 
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Dingo44

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Good news is they have reduced the amount of penalties they have been taking lately. Even Boosh has gone at least a couple of games without one I believe.
 
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DJN21

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Is it even possible to get the faceoff data when shorthanded? I know it's a sensitive subject as to how important faceoffs are to the game but it seems within reason they are important when PKing....

Not saying it is but might be an important factor that could skew those numbers.
 
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old kummelweck

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Nov 10, 2003
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They do need to improve but I am not clear how this happens without swapping out personnel. Is it possible if Peterka and Quinn don't start to contribute and continue to get bench managed in close games that Adams will actually bring in a rental or two at forward and minimize their roles? Maybe someone who can PK and is good at faceoffs? Does Max Domi kill penalties?
 

BUCKSHOT

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They do need to improve but I am not clear how this happens without swapping out personnel. Is it possible if Peterka and Quinn don't start to contribute and continue to get bench managed in close games that Adams will actually bring in a rental or two at forward and minimize their roles? Maybe someone who can PK and is good at faceoffs? Does Max Domi kill penalties?
the PK and face-offs should improve with experience
 

old kummelweck

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Nov 10, 2003
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the PK and face-offs should improve with experience
I don't disagree, and we are seeing FO% going up and the goal tending is better, which is critical for a good PK. But I guess I am selfishly thinking about this year and if they are actually a playoff team, you do need your special team top 50% IMO.
 

cybresabre

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Feb 27, 2002
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Just a weird thing, probably.
Islanders 1st at home, 18th on the road
Rangers 23rd at home, 2nd on the road
Wild 25th at home, 7th on the road

Last year was the same, but less drastic
Sabres 30th at home, 19th on the road
2 Years ago in a short year, the opposite
Sabres 9th at home, 28(of 31 teams) on the road

Younger team may feel the need to do more in front of a home crowd, run out of position, push for shorties, but that seems like a stretch.
Harder/longer changes for RD in periods 1/3? Just the way the dice rolls add up as the year progresses? Maybe it's more strange that we're average on the road.
 

Zman5778

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Oct 4, 2005
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They are overly aggressive in the D zone. Both on the PK and at ES.

I only see aggression out of our D in the neutral zone and then high in the defensive zone.

Once the opponent gets set up in our zone, we become as passive as can be. We stay in our little 2x2 box that plays WAY too high.

I'd shift to a 2-1-1 format. D stays low and actually physically engages with the forwards when they approach the net. Middle forward stays near the bumper and guards against cross-ice passes. High forward pressures the point and the puck with vigor.
 

Irie

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I don't think I have ever watched this current team play passive. I agree with most things you post, so we must have a different definition of terms.

When I say aggressive, I mean leaving their position, abandoning discipline and chasing the puck as an entire unit.

It is a huge pet-peeve of mine as someone that coached youth hockey for nearly a decade, it would drive me absolutely crazy when my players would abandon their assignments to double and triple team the puck.

Here is a segment at ES I am talking about. (I don't have a replay available atm of the blues game, so I randomly chose an older game to find an example - it Took me less than a minute of watching a random section of the game to find an instance, as they do it every shift).

50.jpg


50-a.jpg


50-b.jpg


And here is one from the last Kraken game, everyone mesmerized staring at the puck and being drawn in like moths to the flame while Justin Shultz streaks in on the far side to accept a pass and score an easy goal.

s-k.jpg


The team constantly moves their feet, but they follow the puck. They get swirling around the D zone, and lose their assignments both on the PK and as ES.

Watch a Bruins or Canes game, and watch how their players heads are on swivels, constantly swinging around tracking the oppositions players, and watch how they will abandon pressure if they can't get their to break up a pass in time. They will pull up and reset back into their defensive position, keeping their spacing tight and eliminating the passing lanes.

Then watch Buffalo and watch how their heads never turn, they all just stare at the puck as they follow it around the zone, and skate toward it and end up bunched up eventually as the puck goes across ice for a stellar scoring chance.

It's really not the team's personnel. This team has the skaters to tighten up the D, but the defensive coaching is for lack of a better term, ass.

I love how Granato gives the kids freedom to develop, but he has got to teach them to better read the play and to have faith in their teammates. Recognize their man/defensive area, and do their own job. Let their teammates do theirs. Right now there are 5 individuals on the ice trying to defend and it is often painful to watch. They are not a unit.
 

Push Dr Tracksuit

Gerstmann 3:16
Jun 9, 2012
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So the Sabres currently sit 28th in the league overall in penalty killing which is... not good. However, thinking about it over the last few and I was wondering how they looked and found something kind of odd:

They are 31st in the league on the PK at home: 68.5% success rate, having given up 23 goals (tied for most) in 73 times shorthanded (16th most/17th fewest).

They are 13th in the league on the PK on the road: 79.4% success rate, having given up 14 goals (7th fewest) in 68 times shorthanded (9th fewest).

They are about the same in terms of times shorthanded but have given up a crap ton more goals at home. So... why? What is it?
we're talking a 4 goal swing, thats 2 bad nights really to wildly imbalance your home and away numbers, i think their worst nights are both 3 PPGA and both were at home, just brushing through some numbers it doesnt seem overly skewed, more that they just give up a lot on the PP and the really bad night was a home game
 

TheBarnIsElectric

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Maybe they use different players on the kill at home? Last change at home could impact usage slightly. Maybe?

Probably just coincidence.
 

Irie

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Nov 14, 2010
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Pacific Northwest
What you call "aggressive", I call "stupid". The Sabres play "stupid" hockey defensively.

I won't argue that they sometimes play stupid. :laugh:

I labelled it "Overly aggressive", which I think should be distinguished between just plain aggressive.

I would say "anytime you abandon your defensive space in the defensive zone to aggressively challenge a puck that you can't pressure before the opposing player has time to control it" would be overly aggressive. As would be abandoning your man to double or triple team the puck when a teammate has solid position on the puck carrier is overly aggressive, and likewise, "stupid".

Last night a depleted Blues squad could not take advantage, but when the Sabres do it against Crosby and Malkin, Panarin and Fox, MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar, Eichel, Stephenson and Stone.... those players eat that behavior alive. Had Buchnevich and O'Reilly been in the lineup, they may not have gotten away with it. Thankfully, as a team, St. Louis honestly did not execute very well.
 

Irie

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Nov 14, 2010
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5/25 in their last 10 road games.
6/26 in their last 10 home games.

80% vs 77%. That is a very small sample size though, and could be explained away by different goalie performance as well differing opposition PP "lethal-ness".

I think it comes down to that it is very common for teams (especially young teams) to play looser at home, with their adrenaline being a little more "juiced" in front of the cheering fans, making it a bit tougher to maintain discipline and play a conservative defensive strategy.

The phrase "typical road-game strategy" was coined because it does exist. Teams tend to play more conservative or 'boring' hockey on the road.

I think the Sabres have an extra large discrepancy between 'discipline and effort' in front of their fans vs in other team's barns.

It is probably somewhat to be expected, given that they are the youngest team in the league.
 
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Chainshot

Give 'em Enough Rope
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The improvement over the last 10 compared to the start of the year makes me think of them finally putting the kids into the PK rotation and expanding their penalty killing forwards early in December. It seemed to keep all of them fresher to be able to press more.
 

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