Post-Game Talk: Leafs win 4-3 in the shootout

[keonsbitterness]

Same. The puck passing through the crease always negated it.

That rule no longer applies when the goalie is pulled.

 

[The Masters]

dont polute my screen screen with bruce brown, gradey can stay though.

nah he big leaf fan

 

[Donnie740]

…but in the end, they are still outscoring the other side and that is the bottom line I guess.

Yes, I guess scoring more goals than your opponent is still kinda important even though it sounds much more impressive to ramble on about “expected Corsi index percentage allowed”

 

[leafsfan5]

Yes, I guess scoring more goals than your opponent is still kinda important even though it sounds much more impressive to ramble on about “expected Corsi index percentage allowed”

You do know that the poster is concerned about this being sustainable, right?

The reason people like stats such as xGF% is because it highlights who is outplaying the opposition. If you're outchancing your opponent consistently on top of outscoring them, that suggests there is something reproducible there. For example, Matthews/Marner are consistently at the top of the xGF% lists and surprise surprise, we see them dominate year in and year out. In L2's case, they are outscoring their opposition but are also being outchanced. That works over a small sample size like we have right now, but over the longterm it may not last unless we continue to get excellent finishing from someone like Bertuzzi

I like the Nylander line and want it to work (I'm a person who has wanted the core 4 spread out for years now), but the poster is pointing out some valid concerns with their defensive deficiencies. The question becomes can Keefe shelter them enough to limit the defensive gaps in their game and take advantage of how dynamic they can be in the offensive zone

If the McMann - Tavares - Jarnkrok line can continue to excel over a longer stretch this current setup may be feasible as L3 can take some of the harder matchups allowing Nylander's line to play against weak competition. With that said, this will be tougher on the road where our opponent will be able to dictate matchups more easily

 

[CuuuJooo]

That rule no longer applies when the goalie is pulled.

Interesting. What’s the rationale?

 

[TMLife17]

Now just imagine if Reaves had threw the exact same hit on Fox.....endless masochism from our "hometown" media for sure.

This is why Bunting and Rielly received two of the hashest suspensions the last half decade and this will get nothing.

If a Leaf player gets injured by a cheap shot and the media deosnt make a sound, did it ever really happen?

You didn't tell us you were from Bahston!

 

[Roo]

I can count on one hand how many good games Brodie has had this year and I'm missing two fingers........

Only a couple more months my man. He was solid when we first signed him, but has regressed badly since last season. I’m looking forward to replacing that $5m in cap space with a more solid player next year.

Strange though, when he plays well he looks like a completely different player.

 

[Gabriel426]

You do know that the poster is concerned about this being sustainable, right?

The reason people like stats such as xGF% is because it highlights who is outplaying the opposition. If you're outchancing your opponent consistently on top of outscoring them, that suggests there is something reproducible there. For example, Matthews/Marner are consistently at the top of the xGF% lists and surprise surprise, we see them dominate year in and year out. In L2's case, they are outscoring their opposition but are also being outchanced. That works over a small sample size like we have right now, but over the longterm it may not last unless we continue to get excellent finishing from someone like Bertuzzi

I like the Nylander line and want it to work (I'm a person who has wanted the core 4 spread out for years now), but the poster is pointing out some valid concerns with their defensive deficiencies. The question becomes can Keefe shelter them enough to limit the defensive gaps in their game and take advantage of how dynamic they can be in the offensive zone

If the McMann - Tavares - Jarnkrok line can continue to excel over a longer stretch this current setup may be feasible as L3 can take some of the harder matchups allowing Nylander's line to play against weak competition. With that said, this will be tougher on the road where our opponent will be able to dictate matchups more easily

I think D pairings also play a factor in advance stats such as xGF% though. Esp if the stats is being caved in.

As the same time, we only need to score ONE goal than the opponents to win the game. At the end of the day, just need to score one more.

 

[Racer88]

Interesting. What’s the rationale?

Because Gary Bettman said so

 

[Donnie740]

You do know that the poster is concerned about this being sustainable, right?

The reason people like stats such as xGF% is because it highlights who is outplaying the opposition. If you're outchancing your opponent consistently on top of outscoring them, that suggests there is something reproducible there. For example, Matthews/Marner are consistently at the top of the xGF% lists and surprise surprise, we see them dominate year in and year out. In L2's case, they are outscoring their opposition but are also being outchanced. That works over a small sample size like we have right now, but over the longterm it may not last unless we continue to get excellent finishing from someone like Bertuzzi

I like the Nylander line and want it to work (I'm a person who has wanted the core 4 spread out for years now), but the poster is pointing out some valid concerns with their defensive deficiencies. The question becomes can Keefe shelter them enough to limit the defensive gaps in their game and take advantage of how dynamic they can be in the offensive zone

If the McMann - Tavares - Jarnkrok line can continue to excel over a longer stretch this current setup may be feasible as L3 can take some of the harder matchups allowing Nylander's line to play against weak competition. With that said, this will be tougher on the road where our opponent will be able to dictate matchups more easily

Leafs are 9-1 in their past ten games and 13-3 in their past 16.

Not sure about you, but I don’t need to study advanced metrics to realize that it’s totally unsustainable for Toronto to win at a 90% clip or even an 80% clip between now and the end of June.

It’s impossible for any team in the NHL to win at that rate.

Does this team look better right now than at any point so far this season? Yes, without question.

Does this team look better right now than at any point in the past half decade? Yes, absolutely.

So even though they won’t win at a 90% rate or an 80% rate, they’ve galvanized into a championship contender.

Why would anyone advocate for disrupting this by mixing all the lines into another jumbled clusterfack?

Worse still, why would anyone want the Leafs to give up what little they have in terms of draft picks and prospects just to add a mediocre forward based on what some meaningless spreadsheet says?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Was it a benching? Think Willy took a puck of the face on his last 1st period shift that looked like it hurt a bit.

Also took a stick in the face earlier, but he was benched for curling just outside the blueline on a failed clearing attempt.

 

[Gallagbi]

I think D pairings also play a factor in advance stats such as xGF% though. Esp if the stats is being caved in.

I'd be more concerned about zone starts than pairings, since we're relatively balanced there, but it looks like Domi's line doesn't get a ton of Dzone starts

 

[Jacquestrapless]

Leafs are 9-1 in their past ten games and 13-3 in their past 16.

Not sure about you, but I don’t need to study advanced metrics to realize that it’s totally unsustainable for Toronto to win at a 90% clip or even an 80% clip between now and the end of June.

It’s impossible for any team in the NHL to win at that rate.

Does this team look better right now than at any point so far this season? Yes, without question.

Does this team look better right now than at any point in the past half decade? Yes, absolutely.

So even though they won’t win at a 90% rate or an 80% rate, they’ve galvanized into a championship contender.

Why would anyone advocate for disrupting this by mixing all the lines into another jumbled clusterfack?

Worse still, why would anyone want the Leafs to give up what little they have in terms of draft picks and prospects just to add a mediocre forward based on what some meaningless spreadsheet says?

Lmao you don't need advanced stats to tell you Domi is incompetent at Defence and that line would be eaten alive in the playoffs.

Just look at his Dzone coverage - effectively boxing out Casper the Ghost. Bertuzzi and Nylander are also poor D-zone players- they need a babysitter.

Despite being moved to 3C AND not having PP1 time anymore, Tavares still gets played like a 2C. It's a huge problem, and one MGMT lacks resources to fix if they are still chasing that RD for Rielly.

 

[Bijelo]

The Rangers have interesting rebuilding after decade of worthless troop last three seasonal the Rangers are back to 1996-2006 rebuilding and trade NYR-ANA Vatrano to the Rangers and Kakko to the Ducks sounds better for both teams Kakko comes increase scoring and be new sort star in long terms in the Ducks.

 

[Donnie740]

Lmao you don't need advanced stats to tell you Domi is incompetent at Defence and that line would be eaten alive in the playoffs.

Just look at his Dzone coverage - effectively boxing out Casper the Ghost. Bertuzzi and Nylander are also poor D-zone players- they need a babysitter.

Despite being moved to 3C AND not having PP1 time anymore, Tavares still gets played like a 2C. It's a huge problem, and one MGMT lacks resources to fix if they are still chasing that RD for Rielly.

Your narrative doesn’t have any factual basis, my friend.

Over the past four seasons, Domi has played 43 playoff games with 22 points and a +1 rating. More importantly, his teams have advanced to the 2nd round twice and the 3rd round once.

Domi is a proven playoff performer. That’s why Treliving brought him. Same thing with Bertuzzi.

That line will be on the ice to score goals - - not to play shutdown defence on the oppositions top line. Acquiring a defensive checking forward and adding him to that line would be nonsensical.

This isn’t an NHL’24 video game. You can’t sprinkle a bunch of different playing types together and expect them to form a cohesive unit.

The offensive scoring guys go on the top two lines. The defensive checking guys go on the third line together. The last line is a physical crash line that brings energy and tenacity.

 

[Racer88]

That’s why you have to actually watch the games instead of just looking at the stat sheet, my friend.

Domi and Bert are playing their best hockey of the year since being paired with Nylander.

The other three lines are playing great together - - why would you want to disrupt their chemistry? It makes ZERO sense.

Agreed 100%. The game is played on the ice not a spread sheet. Anything with expected this or expected that is not based in reality

 

[egd27]

Interesting. What’s the rationale?

This the NHL, we don't need no stinkin' rationale !!

 

[Gabriel426]

I'd be more concerned about zone starts than pairings, since we're relatively balanced there, but it looks like Domi's line doesn't get a ton of Dzone starts

But I am not surprised at those stats though.
As those three are not really known as defensive first players. Willie can(if he wants to) do well with backcheck and stripping pucks.
As long as they score more, that’s all it matters

 

[RealisticLeaf55]

Leaf luck to obtain Loob and have him go down in the same game Aaron Rodgers style, Hoping he will be okay but two potential head injuries/concussions to two defensemen? Yikes.

After watching this game, it's clear we need a third line center. Just please god not Adam Henrique.

 

[Zybalto]

Yes, I guess scoring more goals than your opponent is still kinda important even though it sounds much more impressive to ramble on about “expected Corsi index percentage allowed”

Just for fun,

5v5 goal differential the last 3 years from the 6 forwards with 200+ minutes in the playoffs:

1. Marner (20-10, 66.67%) +10
2. Matthews (17-12, 58.62%) +5
3. Kerfoot (15-13, 53.57%) +2
4. Kampf (7-8, 46.67%) -1
5. Tavares (9-11, 45.00%) -2
6. Nylander (14-18, 43.75%) -4

This would probably surprise many based on reputation as Marner is one of the best 5v5 performers in the entire NHL and Nylander at the bottom but thats not the whole story of course.

Even strength goal differential the last 3 years from the 6 forwards with 200+ minutes in the playoffs:

1. Marner (24-14, 63.16%) Even from 5v5, overall +10
2. Matthews (21-16, 56.76%) Even from 5v5, overall +5
3. Kerfoot (18-14, 56.25%) +1 from 5v5, overall +4
4. Kampf (9-8, 52.94%) +2 from 5v5, overall +1
5. Nylander (23-23, 50.00%) +4 from 5v5, overall Even
6. Tavares (13-14, 48.15%) +1 from 5v5, overall -1

The bottom 4 guys (especially Nylander) catch up to the top guys as the top minute guys are an overall +19. I think D gets underlooked overall.

Fewest Goals allowed/60 5v5:

1. Marner: 1.51
2. Matthews: 1.65
3. Kampf: 2.26
4. Kerfoot: 2.46
5. Tavares: 2.57
6. Nylander: 3.05

Sort of expected here I guess.

How does PP proficiency come into play?

Goals scored/60 on the PP while on the ice the last 3 years from the 4 forwards with 50+ minutes in the playoffs:

1. Tavares: 8.52
2. Nylander: 7.95
3. Marner: 7.19
4. Matthews: 7.05

Not all that great from any of them really and probably a variable in the losses. (and running into Vezina winners every year isnt helping either).



Sorry, got carried away....Just interesting to look at.......

 

[Gallagbi]

But I am not surprised at those stats though.
As those three are not really known as defensive first players. Willie can(if he wants to) do well with backcheck and stripping pucks.
As long as they score more, that’s all it matters

I wouldn't expect it to last with those numbers, personally. Bert's running hot right now, which does even out his earlier struggles and being snakebitten, but hard to see that continuing.

If they're going to find success they need to do a better job maintaining possession and limiting chances.

 

[Gabriel426]

I wouldn't expect it to last with those numbers, personally. Bert's running hot right now, which does even out his earlier struggles and being snakebitten, but hard to see that continuing.

If they're going to find success they need to do a better job maintaining possession and limiting chances.

I think half of Bert’s goals are on the PP.

I do think they need to do better just like the rest of the team if they want to win the Cup.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Interesting. What’s the rationale?

Probably to give the team with six skaters a better chance.

 

[Squiffy]

I’ve joined the point of the PGT where we are thinking too hard about it I see lol.

Fresh view, just finished watching,. I mean they fought thru being down twice, Sammy had some beauty saves, in general they played the better game and got two. You gotta be happy with it. Go Leaf Go.

 

[Squiffy]

The two Bruin games so far this season have been among the best games in recent memory to watch. Look forward to tomorrows game.