Series Talk: Leafs vs Bruins - 'ah shit here we go again' edition -- Full schedule post #933

[Zybalto]

Always knew the Bruins were going to get good goaltending but as long as Sammy holds up, the Leafs have a good chance of taking this thing.

Run of play stats after 2 games:

Shots: 70-53 Leafs
Scoring chances: 76-38 Leafs
High Danger chances: 33-15 Leafs

Leafs PDO: .925
Shooting%: 5.71
Save%: 86.79

A very good sign for the Leafs they completely dominated run of play stats and a bad sign they have been getting dummied in the goaltending battle (shocker).

I just hope tongihts game is as good as last game. Need Sammy to play that way the rest of the playoffs.

GLG!

 

[sxvnert]

PP1: Nylander-Matthews-Domi-Bert-Rielly
PP2: Marner-Tavares-Knies-Järnkrok-Lily

 

[Maple Leaf]

how do you lose???????????????

 

[Commander Clueless]

how do you lose???????????????

First game eh?

Welcome.

 

[sxvnert]

One thing is for sure,whoever wins this series is getting smoked by Florida/Tampa next round.

 

[wingman75]

Always knew the Bruins were going to get good goaltending but as long as Sammy holds up, the Leafs have a good chance of taking this thing.

Run of play stats after 2 games:

Shots: 70-53 Leafs
Scoring chances: 76-38 Leafs
High Danger chances: 33-15 Leafs

Leafs PDO: .925
Shooting%: 5.71
Save%: 86.79

A very good sign for the Leafs they completely dominated run of play stats and a bad sign they have been getting dummied in the goaltending battle (shocker).

I just hope tongihts game is as good as last game. Need Sammy to play that way the rest of the playoffs.

GLG!

Do those stats include PP or just 5v5?

That is just gross. I think it says a lot about our goalie and our scorers. We have seen those same stats vs many other goalies, so I am not handing Swayman too much credit. But he has been good.

 

[wingman75]

So... game four now becomes a must win.

Woll? Samsonov? Woll? Jones?

My guess is Samsonov.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

So... game four now becomes a must win.

Woll? Samsonov? Woll? Jones?

My guess is Samsonov.

I think it'll be Sammy the rest of the way. Even if Sammy loses on Sat, Woll hasn't played in two weeks. Asking him to come in cold and win three straight is a tall order. Samsonov should have been pulled game 1 to let Woll get some work in.

Personally, I would start Woll the rest of the way.

 

[Maple Leaf]

One thing is for sure,whoever wins this series is getting smoked by Florida/Tampa next round.

 

[kevsh]

The underlying stats say they've been playing well, and it was clear most of last night they were better.
But it's the little mistakes, the bad penalties, the incompetent special teams and not getting the timely save that kills them.

The worst (and "most Leafs" thing) may have been turning a winning faceoff in Boston's zone on the power play into a 2-on-1 against seconds later, then a needless penalty a few seconds after that leading to a Boston power play goal. It was almost a comedy of errors, and one that you could almost see coming. ("Yeah, we got a power play ... So you mean Boston will score within the next 60-90 seconds?")

Then getting that huge Bertuzzi goal only to give one up 20 odd seconds later, to Marchand of course.

So on one hand, a good sign that they can play very well against a good team, but a bad sign that they still manage to find a way to lose. And now to Boston yet again. The hockey gods just seem intent on punishing Leafs fans for the crime of simply existing.

 

[ACC1224]

So... game four now becomes a must win.

Woll? Samsonov? Woll? Jones?

My guess is Samsonov.

They won't change goalies at this point.

 

[hoglund]

Samsonov played fine allowing 3 goals on 34 shots isn't great, but not bad. He did allow 1 soft goal, but yesterday's loss wasn't goaltending it was not scoring on the power play and Boston not getting penalized for many infractions.

 

[mydnyte]

I know they’ll also draw an extra penalty on at least 3 scrums.

...or to even out a PP chance, or when trailing in the last min going for the tie i guess also.

correct so far.

 

[Evilhomer]

The Leafs have been the better team through three games. A win on Saturday in overtime seems right.

 

[mydnyte]

Always knew the Bruins were going to get good goaltending but as long as Sammy holds up, the Leafs have a good chance of taking this thing.

Run of play stats after 2 games:

Shots: 70-53 Leafs
Scoring chances: 76-38 Leafs
High Danger chances: 33-15 Leafs

Leafs PDO: .925
Shooting%: 5.71
Save%: 86.79

A very good sign for the Leafs they completely dominated run of play stats and a bad sign they have been getting dummied in the goaltending battle (shocker).

I just hope tongihts game is as good as last game. Need Sammy to play that way the rest of the playoffs.

GLG!

whoever determines high danger chances needs to evaluate more than the spots.
if the puck in in the crease in front of the goalies pad, that is not actually a 'high danger' chance, as its almost impossible to score from there, especially with 2 d-men crushing you at the same time.

a clean/clear open shot with time to pick a spot (ala Frederic or Marchand is far more dangerous)

The Leafs had very few open looks, or good shots, they were mostly soft dribblers, or bouncing puck swings, no clear looks at all. This is where our D suffers, they back off and give Boston clean shots.

The Leafs have been the better team through three games. A win on Saturday in overtime seems right.

Ideally, they go back to Ulmark and we win, then finally Beat Swayman in Boston, and then they dont know which way to go. But, if we cant get better shots (over his pads and under the crossbar) we have no chance. Swayman's leg work is as solid as Shesterkin.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Samsonov played fine allowing 3 goals on 34 shots isn't great, but not bad. He did allow 1 soft goal, but yesterday's loss wasn't goaltending it was not scoring on the power play and Boston not getting penalized for many infractions.

Like. Perfect summary! I would only add that Sammy made some really tough saves as well. He hasn't been perfect, but we shouldn't expect him to be perfect, just good enough to win and he's been that.

The Leafs have been the better team through three games. A win on Saturday in overtime seems right.

Yeah, I don't know about that. Any time we get a PP, Boston is just likely to get a grade A scoring chance as us but their PP is the real deal. That alone give them a huge edge and I don't see that we do enough elsewhere to make up for that, plus their goaltending is top drawer which is everything in the playoffs. This thing is far from over but IMO Boston has been the better team so far.

whoever determines high danger chances needs to evaluate more than the spots.
if the puck in in the crease in front of the goalies pad, that is not actually a 'high danger' chance, as its almost impossible to score from there, especially with 2 d-men crushing you at the same time.

a clean/clear open shot with time to pick a spot (ala Frederic or Marchand is far more dangerous)

The Leafs had very few open looks, or good shots, they were mostly soft dribblers, or bouncing puck swings, no clear looks at all. This is where our D suffers, they back off and give Boston clean shots.

Agree 100%. These so called "advanced" stats are more flawed than most people seem to understand.

 

[mydnyte]

Agree 100%. These so called "advanced" stats are more flawed than most people seem to understand.

Advanced stats are a betting gimmick.

what the Leafs need to do is hire a mathematician, so he can explain to them that a 6'4" goalie in the butterfly covers 100% of the bottom of the net, and when you are in the blue paint, you cannot get the puck up 16+ inches to get over his pads.
...then also explain how good angle passes across the net are, as that is Boston's bread and butter.
a goalie cannot get across the crease as fast as the puck, and defenders cant stop a player who is skating to the far post either.
However, a player standing in the Blue paint is very EASY to contain, and its damn hard to jam a puck in from 2 inches out.
and for the love of god, stop in front the net, dont skate past it all the time and then curl back, thats the reason players do start-stop drills from the moment that start hockey.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Advanced stats are a betting gimmick.

what the Leafs need to do is hire a mathematician, so he can explain to them that a 6'4" goalie in the butterfly covers 100% of the bottom of the net, and when you are in the blue paint, you cannot get the puck up 16+ inches to get over his pads.
...then also explain how good angle passes across the net are, as that is Boston's bread and butter.
a goalie cannot get across the crease as fast as the puck, and defenders cant stop a player who is skating to the far post either.
However, a player standing in the Blue paint is very EASY to contain, and its damn hard to jam a puck in from 2 inches out.
and for the love of god, stop in front the net, dont skate past it all the time and then curl back, thats the reason players do start-stop drills from the moment that start hockey.

All good points, especially the bolded hits home. And what the Leafs also need to do (should have done years ago actually) is hire a top notch sports shrink to work with Marner. There's so much talent there that just gets stuck somehow in the biggest games.

 

[wingman75]

All good points, especially the bolded hits home. And what the Leafs also need to do (should have done years ago actually) is hire a top notch sports shrink to work with Marner. There's so much talent there that just gets stuck somehow in the biggest games.

Pretty sure they already have all that in place... it has been discussed in the past, and even specific to Marner.

 

[Torontonian]

5 on 5 Toronto has been a better team then Boston. Just getting killed in the specials team category and our goaltender has gifted them free goals.

Can't be 2nd best in two major areas of a series and expect to win.

 

[Suntouchable13]

5 on 5 Toronto has been a better team then Boston. Just getting killed in the specials team category and our goaltender has gifted them free goals.

Can't be 2nd best in two major areas of a series and expect to win.

Shouldn’t the talent advantage the Leafs have somewhat negate the goalie advantage Boston has? Instead they are making Swayman look like the best goalie in the league right now.

 

[Torontonian]

Shouldn’t the talent advantage the Leafs have somewhat negate the goalie advantage Boston has? Instead they are making Swayman look like the best goalie in the league right now.

I mean yes, Toronto should have torched Boston last night on the PP, going 1/5 or 2/5 would have been the game. Swayman has been a quality goalie for 2 years now.

But again, "Ilya Samsonov is 6-12-0 in 20 games with a goals against average of 3.05 and a save percentage of .901 in the playoffs in his career" -- Anytime this guy starts in the playoffs, you need on average 4 goals to win.. It's not feasible to do that EVERY game.

I'm not giving the forwards a pass, but last night game is a game you need to win 2-1. The leafs did there part, Sammy lets in a awful 1st goal and a awful rebound for the 2nd goal.

 

[Gallagbi]

All good points, especially the bolded hits home. And what the Leafs also need to do (should have done years ago actually) is hire a top notch sports shrink to work with Marner. There's so much talent there that just gets stuck somehow in the biggest games.

I believe we have 2.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I mean yes, Toronto should have torched Boston last night on the PP, going 1/5 or 2/5 would have been the game. Swayman has been a quality goalie for 2 years now.

But again, "Ilya Samsonov is 6-12-0 in 20 games with a goals against average of 3.05 and a save percentage of .901 in the playoffs in his career" -- Anytime this guy starts in the playoffs, you need on average 4 goals to win.. It's not feasible to do that EVERY game.

I'm not giving the forwards a pass, but last night game is a game you need to win 2-1. The leafs did there part, Sammy lets in a awful 1st goal and a awful rebound for the 2nd goal.

Either way, I hope Tre will be on the legit goalie market in the summer. Not bargain bin shopping.

 

[Torontonian]

Either way, I hope Tre will be on the legit goalie market in the summer. Not bargain bin shopping.

Same here, the thing with Tre is he likes to build from the net out as history has shown. Until he gets a quality goaltender this team will continue to be cooked.