Friedman: Leafs to enter goalie Market

[thusk]

When you spend half your cap on 4 forwards you can't afford a real number 1

leafs had close 4,65M to spend on Murray last year and 3.5 M on a 4th line player in kerfoot... dont think it waa really the big problem here

but get a real good #, over 90%of the time you need to develop him and it was the problem, but now with woll, hildeby and akhtyamov, futur look better in net

 

[KevinRedkey]

People seem to foget this guy had a QO of 2.000 and the Caps walked away entirely. He was 52-22-8 in his career at that time, and they walked away from a 24yr old that was drafted in the first round.

There was a reason for that, and a big part of it is because he would choke when it mattered. I dont want to check, but his career regulation-loss % may literally be the best ever with at least 100 games played. It's certainly near the best at the very least.

Career regulation-loss percentage (lower is better):
Ilya Samsonov - 23.3%
Igor Shesterkin - 27.4%
Tuukka Rask - 29.3%
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 29.4%
Jacques Plante - 29.4%
Dominik Hasek - 30.3%
Patrick Roy - 30.6%
Martin Brodeur - 31.4%
Ilya Sorokin - 32.1%
Henrik Lundqvist - 34.9%

Also, the table above is a good example of how using obscure stats is often not a good indication of how good a player actually is. lol

 

[Team_Spirit]

So Friedman said that once the trade Freeze is lifted on the 28th that that the Leafs will enter the goalie market and you know what? they kind of have to.

Another Elliotte gem

 

[Stephen]

How many goaltenders have gone through Toronto and have been the problem.... maybe just maybe it's not all on the goaltender

If anything, it's Toronto that temporarily elevated these guys into goalies with expectations.

 

[Breakers]

Jamie McLennan who talks with goalie coaches

He said he likes Blackwood as a cheaper target
Has decent foundations

Tough to judge in San Jose

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

How many goaltenders have gone through Toronto and have been the problem.... maybe just maybe it's not all on the goaltender

When the goaltender has an 862 save% yes It's on him.

 

[Stephen]

People seem to foget this guy had a QO of 2.000 and the Caps walked away entirely. He was 52-22-8 in his career at that time, and they walked away from a 24yr old that was drafted in the first round.

There was a reason for that, and a big part of it is because he would choke when it mattered. I dont want to check, but his career regulation-loss % may literally be the best ever with at least 100 games played. It's certainly near the best at the very least.

Career regulation-loss percentage (lower is better):
Ilya Samsonov - 23.3%
Igor Shesterkin - 27.4%
Tuukka Rask - 29.3%
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 29.4%
Jacques Plante - 29.4%
Dominik Hasek - 30.3%
Patrick Roy - 30.6%
Martin Brodeur - 31.4%
Ilya Sorokin - 32.1%
Henrik Lundqvist - 34.9%

Also, the table above is a good example of how using obscure stats is often not a good indication of how good a player actually is. lol

Yeah, if not for his checkered past and unique reputational issues in Washington Samsonov would never have been a Leaf in the first place.

We're talking about a Russian first round pick, same age group as Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin, obvious athletic talent every time he makes a save, a good record and stats to start his career, yet has an unplayable floor and unpredictable personality, mental game, professional track record.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Iunno if the leafs can salvage this year and actually become a playoff threat.

Too many issues.
Top to bottom

Maybe steal a round. Maybe.

 

[Stephen]

When the goaltender has an 862 save% yes It's on him.

When you face 21 shots and allow 6, it's not the team in front of you. When you allow 5 shots on 19 shots the game before that, it's definitely the goalie.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Shouldn’t some of the blame rest on the guy who thought running with Samsonov and Jones and a rookie with 15 NHL games was a good move?

 

[Mr Positive]

How many goaltenders have gone through Toronto and have been the problem.... maybe just maybe it's not all on the goaltender

It's a small sample size though. Any goalie graveyard team gets that lable after like 3 or 4 guys over many years.

I recall back in 2006 we had been through many goalies and were going with our "three headed monster" but then we landed Roloson and it was like a switch flipped. We've been chasing that ever since.

There is definitely appeal in landing an established talent like a good goalie who will be UFA before their rebuild is over such as Saros or perhaps Gibson. Or, like the Roloson case or more recently Ullmark, just try someone with positive signs and gamble they could find another gear. So that might be Blackwood

 

[WetcoastOrca]

A cautionary tale. If you want to cheap out on goaltending you’d better have an elite D and elite two way forwards.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Shouldn’t some of the blame rest on the guy who thought running with Samsonov and Jones and a rookie with 15 NHL games was a good move?

The guy that brought Samsonov to Toronto isn't here

 

[Stephen]

A cautionary tale. If you want to cheap out on goaltending you’d better have an elite D and elite two way forwards.

Martin Jones and Joseph Woll both have GAA's in the 2.80s and SV% in the mid .910's. They've appeared in a combined 22 games while Samsonov has played 15, who has an .867 SV% and GAA a hair below 4.00. This isn't anyone's problem other than Samsonov.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Martin Jones and Joseph Woll both have GAA's in the 2.80s and SV% in the mid .910's. They've appeared in a combined 22 games while Samsonov has played 15, who has an .867 SV% and GAA a hair below 4.00. This isn't anyone's problem other than Samsonov.

Martin Jones has played 7 games and is close to the worst goalie in the NHL the last few years. Woll has played maybe 15 games.
The team is on pace for 102 points.
It’s a D and goaltending issue.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Martin Jones and Joseph Woll both have GAA's in the 2.80s and SV% in the mid .910's. They've appeared in a combined 22 games while Samsonov has played 15, who has an .867 SV% and GAA a hair below 4.00. This isn't anyone's problem other than Samsonov.

It's 862 save% last I checked

 

[Stephen]

Martin Jones has played 7 games and is close to the worst goalie in the NHL the last few years. Woll has played maybe 15 games.

Leafs have been rolling budget goalies since 2021 and are in a playoff spot now with Samsonov singlehandedly imploding his own career. Leafs have their flaws but this is a one man meltdown.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Leafs have been rolling budget goalies since 2021 and are in a playoff spot now with Samsonov singlehandedly imploding his own career. Leafs have their flaws but this is a one man meltdown.

It’s a 102 point pace which is usually a wildcard spot. It’s a team meltdown. And that’s even with Matthews on an insane goal run.
It’s far too easy to find a single scapegoat for all the teams issues.

 

[Stephen]

It's 862 save% last I checked

Which is significantly worse than goaltending we got from Erik Kallgren.

 

[Mr Positive]

Leafs have been rolling budget goalies since 2021 and are in a playoff spot now with Samsonov singlehandedly imploding his own career. Leafs have their flaws but this is a one man meltdown.

They are pretty close to out of a playoff spot now. All it needs is a couple losses and for Tampa to find itself. They can't keep going this way with Samsonov. They had a cushion and are losing it

 

[Stephen]

It’s a 102 point pace which is usually a wildcard spot. It’s a team meltdown. And that’s even with Matthews on an insane goal run.

Nice try, my man.

We'll simply solve one variable at a time, get the SV% to stabilize in the low .900s with Jones getting the early January starts and take it from there, whether that's a real trade, a dumpster/waiver dive, play the Hildeby card and buy Woll some time.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Nice try, my man.

We'll simply solve one variable at a time, get the SV% to stabilize in the low .900s with Jones getting the early January starts and take it from there, whether that's a real trade, a dumpster/waiver dive, play the Hildeby card and buy Woll some time.

Sure. That would be a good start. Then fix the D. Likely can’t do it all this year anyways. Far too many holes.

 

[Hunter368]

When you face 21 shots and allow 6, it's not the team in front of you. When you allow 5 shots on 19 shots the game before that, it's definitely the goalie.

I don't think anyone (or at least most) are saying its just the Leafs defense or defensive play in front of the goalie thats at fault. But its also not as straight forward as looking at shots vs goals allowed by the goalie, its less about shots and more about quality of chances & number of scoring chances. In the end its a combination of weak goaltending, not a great defense and forwards (as a whole) who are much better at scoring then they are at defensive responsibilities. Then there is Leafs coaching/defensive systems, while I don't think the Leafs coach is as good as some think he is, I also don't think he's as bad as some think he is, either way he needs to use his players better factoring in their strengths & weaknesses & demand accountability from them or sit them regardless of their name.

Look at Grant Fuhr, he's numbers actually don't scream great goaltending (Oilers days), until you watched who he played behind and the number & quality of scoring chances allowed they gave up on him......then your realize why Grant was such a great goalie (during his peak years).

No Grant F available out there, Woll has potential but it would incompetent to put all the teams hopes on a very inexperienced goalie who has a tiny sample size in the NHL. Leafs need to absolutely get a solid reliable vet goalie (not saying top 5 goalie), improve their defense & defensive systems and maybe help at forward group with some better defensive forwards to add to their very good offensive players.

Leafs aren't a serious cup contender as it stands today, but absolutely are if they make the right changes before the TDL & the coach uses them properly. IMO

 

[notbias]

Cowan would get a first. Nobody is paying a first for the other three. The Leafs need D. Everyone knows it. The goalies would be fine if they had decent D in front of them. Even when healthy it’s a weak back end.

100% true.

Look at the other two goalies struggling.

People seem to foget this guy had a QO of 2.000 and the Caps walked away entirely. He was 52-22-8 in his career at that time, and they walked away from a 24yr old that was drafted in the first round.

There was a reason for that, and a big part of it is because he would choke when it mattered. I dont want to check, but his career regulation-loss % may literally be the best ever with at least 100 games played. It's certainly near the best at the very least.

Career regulation-loss percentage (lower is better):
Ilya Samsonov - 23.3%
Igor Shesterkin - 27.4%
Tuukka Rask - 29.3%
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 29.4%
Jacques Plante - 29.4%
Dominik Hasek - 30.3%
Patrick Roy - 30.6%
Martin Brodeur - 31.4%
Ilya Sorokin - 32.1%
Henrik Lundqvist - 34.9%

Also, the table above is a good example of how using obscure stats is often not a good indication of how good a player actually is. lol

They also picked up a terrible goalie instead, so not sure I'd trust their goalie department.

 

[Nanuuk]

I think the Leafs/Flames will pull of a big trade that will see Markstrom and Tanev head east.

What it would cost them is another matter.

Leafs will want to no doubt add without a major subtraction. And there's the rub. Cap hit follies might force the hand of the Leafs/Flames in any transaction.

I feel that the Leafs and their fans will want to contend this year, cost be damned as you can always start fix it after you've won a cup.

So I expect Treliving to go all in. Flames will either have to retain or take back some UFA contracts in return. Trouble is, for them the real prize would be picks or prospects or a certain rookie player.

Markstrom and Tanev combined bring about a 10.5M cap hit.

While I'd love to suggest Nylander in return, I don't think that is realistic.

Heck, what I'm about to propose isn't either, but what the heck?

2024 1st, 2024 3rd, Samsonov, Domi, Liljegren, Cowan.