Rumor: Leafs significantly expanding their analytics department

[Pookie]

Sigh, why do people that don't understand metrics continue to misrepresent them.. @Pookie do you want to take this one or should I?

I’m going to be drinking Randy. Just a couple of drinky-poos but maybe it’s best you take care of it

 

[Pookie]

Public stats gives you better insight than when you don’t use them.

Public stats + proprietary stats will lead to better analysis than either of those other options (providing your proprietary ones actually mean anything)

Public stats that actually correlate to results give you insight.

Majority of the reliability and correlation metrics for these public stats make them effectively bunk.

Health metrics are likely the most promising

 

[Menzinger]

Public stats that actually correlate to results give you insight.

Majority of the reliability and correlation metrics for these public stats make them effectively bunk.

Health metrics are likely the most promising

I mean, you can feel this way if you want, but they’re as ingrained in league decision making and analysis as any of the “traditional” stats at this point.

 

[Pookie]

I mean, you can feel this way if you want, but they’re as ingrained in league decision making and analysis as any of the “traditional” stats at this point.

I’m not so sure. If someone actually understands statistics, they wouldn’t put much stock in those that don’t have value.

I’m not going to plan my financial investments on the Ennie Meanie Minie Moe method... even if it it picks a winner now and then.

 

[Myopic]

Give me a 50M budget and I'd STEAL the BEST of the BEST scouts from around the league and pay them each $2M a year. It's not hard to see which teams have the best farm systems year after year. Poach about 4-5 of them. Take a look a Dubas' staff. What a frickin' joke.

Dubas on the other hand is more inclined to study analytics, in between games of fortnite, 12 hours a day. Hey, at least all of those department analytics nerds will have a really cool gaming PC.

 

[rumman]

and a good chunk of that $50m would go towards hiring and training people to collect data properly....and not only on future games, but to go back and watch game tapes for the last 10yrs, re-collect the data more thoroughly and accurately, and re-do all the analysis ofbthat new data and its correlation with predictivity of winning.

and then to go out and start collecting our own database for every minor league as well.

do you know this as a fact or are you speculating?

 

[RLF]

do you know this as a fact or are you speculating?

Better yet, if we need to hire people to collect data properly and go back and re-collect it accurately from the pat 10 years...then why the heck are we listening to any of the current data if it is so flawed to begin with because it wasn't collected or correlated properly in the first place?

 

[rumman]

Better yet, if we need to hire people to collect data properly and go back and re-collect it accurately from the pat 10 years...then why the heck are we listening to any of the current data if it is so flawed to begin with because it wasn't collected or correlated properly in the first place?

another great point, maybe they realize advance stats aren't working and it's because of the human factor you previously mentioned, so they find better humans to enter said stats?

 

[robertmac43]

Definitely would be beneficial.

This kind of investment is just another way for us to flex our muscles a bit in the cap era, might as well take advantage!

 

[Blanche Blanche]

Give me a 50M budget and I'd STEAL the BEST of the BEST scouts from around the league and pay them each $2M a year. It's not hard to see which teams have the best farm systems year after year. Poach about 4-5 of them. Take a look a Dubas' staff. What a frickin' joke.

Dubas on the other hand is more inclined to study analytics, in between games of fortnite, 12 hours a day. Hey, at least all of those department analytics nerds will have a really cool gaming PC.

I hope it works out for us. This Moneyball stuff

Seems like our scouts on F and more recently D are ok with the Marlies.
We need a better Goalie scout LMAO

Just hope Shanny isnt fooled by Dubas and his brand of numbers and stats if its proving to be crap.

So far hes been fooled by Babcocks simple system. Good coach, but employs a dud system in modern NHL.

Lets see how we do VS Boston

I want to eat crow on Babs. I really do

 

[Pookie]

I hope it works out for us. This Moneyball stuff

Seems like our scouts on F and more recently D are ok with the Marlies.
We need a better Goalie scout LMAO

Just hope Shanny isnt fooled by Dubas and his brand of numbers and stats if its proving to be crap.

So far hes been fooled by Babcocks simple system. Good coach, but employs a dud system in modern NHL.

Lets see how we do VS Boston

I want to eat crow on Babs. I really do

Moneyball for the A’s was about finding undervalued contracts so they could compete in a league without a salary cap.

In baseball, “Age 27” is a statistical thing where most players BEGIN their peak that lasts until about age 32. UFA status begins at age 27.

In hockey, most players peak AT age 27 and decline from there. See, Kadri, Nazem. UFA status begins at age 27.

Finding under valued contracts on players about to peak is much different than signing players to contracts who are about to decline.

Since stats only tell what happened, the ability to predict the decline is limited and why health based metrics will reign. And of course, will be proprietary.

Totally different ball game (no pun intended).

 

[Superstar]

Dubas doing his homework on how to make another overpayment for Marner...

 

[Menzinger]

Better yet, if we need to hire people to collect data properly and go back and re-collect it accurately from the pat 10 years...then why the heck are we listening to any of the current data if it is so flawed to begin with because it wasn't collected or correlated properly in the first place?

It’s not an either or situation.

You can be pleased with current data, but also still feel there is room to innovate.

 

[RLF]

It’s not an either or situation.

You can be pleased with current data, but also still feel there is room to innovate.

I'm not the one who said this:

"and a good chunk of that $50m would go towards hiring and training people to collect data properly....and not only on future games, but to go back and watch game tapes for the last 10yrs, re-collect the data more thoroughly and accurately,"

That is saying that the current data has not been collected properly, accurately or thorough enough. If you ran a company, is that the data you would base decisions on?

 

[RLF]

Moneyball for the A’s was about finding undervalued contracts so they could compete in a league without a salary cap.

In baseball, “Age 27” is a statistical thing where most players BEGIN their peak that lasts until about age 32. UFA status begins at age 27.

In hockey, most players peak AT age 27 and decline from there. See, Kadri, Nazem. UFA status begins at age 27.

Finding under valued contracts on players about to peak is much different than signing players to contracts who are about to decline.

Since stats only tell what happened, the ability to predict the decline is limited and why health based metrics will reign. And of course, will be proprietary.

Totally different ball game (no pun intended).

Also, baseball is much easier to statistically record events. It is a team sport based on one on one battles. Pitcher vs batter, fielder vs ball, runner vs fielders. The difference between baseball and hockey is massive.

 

[RLF]

another great point, maybe they realize advance stats aren't working and it's because of the human factor you previously mentioned, so they find better humans to enter said stats?

Some teams have their own departments collecting stats already, I believe we are one of them. The issue is that the formulas and data is nowhere near close to telling the whole story. If you look at ALL the stats available, which most only choose 3 or 4, they usually support what a well trained eye sees. Stats can let you know how well a player HAS performed under the situation he has been place in. They can tell you how well the team has performed under the situations they have played in. They can give you indications where you are excelling or need improvement. They are not the great predictor some claim they are, nor are they an effective way to compare how good players are to each other around the League. The issue has never been the statistics, it is how some claim they are proof that their opinions are correct.

 

[rumman]

Some teams have their own departments collecting stats already, I believe we are one of them. The issue is that the formulas and data is nowhere near close to telling the whole story. If you look at ALL the stats available, which most only choose 3 or 4, they usually support what a well trained eye sees. Stats can let you know how well a player HAS performed under the situation he has been place in. They can tell you how well the team has performed under the situations they have played in. They can give you indications where you are excelling or need improvement. They are not the great predictor some claim they are, nor are they an effective way to compare how good players are to each other around the League. The issue has never been the statistics, it is how some claim they are proof that their opinions are correct.

spending $50 mil on a "idea" or "theory" is unwise imo, but it's not my money so have at it Dubas, hopefully it'll be another nail in his coffin?

 

[Notsince67]

spending $50 mil on a "idea" or "theory" is unwise imo, but it's not my money so have at it Dubas, hopefully it'll be another nail in his coffin?

The next wave of technology will be ai to watch the crap teams that analytics puts together because it will be too difficult for most people to stomach

 

[RLF]

spending $50 mil on a "idea" or "theory" is unwise imo, but it's not my money so have at it Dubas, hopefully it'll be another nail in his coffin?

Not sure over how much time that money is being planned for. Any advantage you can get I think is good, but if we rely only on data to make decisions on player personnel etc, that would not be using all data available as you would be removing the human part of evaluation and that would be a big mistake.imo

 

[Notsince67]

Not sure over how much time that money is being planned for. Any advantage you can get I think is good, but if we rely only on data to make decisions on player personnel etc, that would not be using all data available as you would be removing the human part of evaluation and that would be a big mistake.imo

The new generation have little experience with human interaction. Human evaluation will be a skill in demand eventually

 

[IBeL34f]

Not sure over how much time that money is being planned for. Any advantage you can get I think is good, but if we rely only on data to make decisions on player personnel etc, that would not be using all data available as you would be removing the human part of evaluation and that would be a big mistake.imo

Is there anything that suggests that this is what we are planning on doing?

 

[AllDay28]

apparently most teams analytics team is 1 person with a computer. Anything the Leafs can do to get an advantage Im all for.

 

[RLF]

Is there anything that suggests that this is what we are planning on doing?

Never said there was with the Leafs, I leave that to posters on here.

 

[RLF]

The new generation have little experience with human interaction. Human evaluation will be a skill in demand eventually

I think some forget the data is there to assist the human evaluation, not the other way around.

 

[TorMapleJays]

Let's hope they hire a few guys good with numbers who actually played to give context. Numbers by themselves are meaningless. Einstein.

Thats me!!!