GDT: Leafs@Oilers 7PM CBC/SN HNIC

[zeke]

with the sharks playing the red hot Blues today, we have a good shot at leapfrogging both the sharks and the flames and moving up into 3rd place in the whole league.

also 3rd place in our divvision too, though.

 

[bpower]

One “weird lineup” I’d love to see tried in a game like this is;

Moore-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Gauthier/Marleau-Kapanen
Ennis-Gauthier/Marleau-Brown/Petan

Gauthier could be a fit with the Johnsson and Kap and the fourth is balanced per say


Tinker with the lines going into the playoffs because I really hate the forwards lines as is

Kadri isn't allowed to play "in a game like this"?

 

[ULF_55]

I can live with this for now:

Morgan Rielly • Ron Hainsey
Jake Muzzin • Nikita Zaitsev
Martin Marincin • Igor Ozhiganov

Perhaps not fair to Holl, who has played 4 games this year, but I'll take Ozhiganov and Marincin over the Holl we saw the other day.

 

[bpower]

with the sharks playing the red hot Blues today, we have a good shot at leapfrogging both the sharks and the flames and moving up into 3rd place in the whole league.

also 3rd place in our divvision too, though.

And then play the 2nd place team in the league in the first round.... on the road.

 

[Cor]

I can live with this for now:

Morgan Rielly • Ron Hainsey
Jake Muzzin • Nikita Zaitsev
Martin Marincin • Igor Ozhiganov

Perhaps not fair to Holl, who has played 4 games this year, but I'll take Ozhiganov and Marincin over the Holl we saw the other day.

We need Calle Rosen back pronto to replace Marincin.

I also wouldn't be shocked, if come later in March, depending on what Gards and Dermy's status' are, if we see Liljegren get a few games.

I believe, and someone can correct me if I'm wrong, as long as he only plays 9 regular season games, he can play the entire playoffs with us without burning a contract year. - 9 games between both regular and playoffs. :/

 

[Matthews4Calder]

They played OK. Freddy played great and Calgary’s goaltending and D gifted them

I was at this game and you're bang on with that. Rittich wasn't very good. Leafs 4th line was great as was Marner.
Matthews disappointed me as he has lately.
Night and day between him and Marner as far as compete on a nightly basis.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

We need Calle Rosen back pronto to replace Marincin.

I also wouldn't be shocked, if come later in March, depending on what Gards and Dermy's status' are, if we see Liljegren get a few games.

I believe, and someone can correct me if I'm wrong, as long as he only plays 9 regular season games, he can play the entire playoffs with us without burning a contract year.

Negative. 9 games regular season or playoffs counts towards burning a year.

 

[Cor]

Negative. 9 games regular season or playoffs counts towards burning a year.

Ah yeah, it is both.

Well, only 9 games between both then. Wouldn't be surprised to see him get a couple regular season games still.

 

[Coachcorner]

Our suckas have dat trump huge opportunity to show our skill set tonight against these fool dorks. They ain't have what we have. The money, the power and the personel.... mayne we surely have all dat.

They ain't have nothing. Others might jelious of our money and investings but don't be alarmed. We will rule the ice hockey world soon enough again. Already do in certain ways. They can just watch and see, wanting to be like us. Imagine what type of destruction of the minds that there sets. They (want to be like us). Our rear ends will show the set tonight. Twerking time is here.

 

[Advanced stats]

Wow what a week for the Bruins-leafs playoff battle.

Boston playing 4 games against desperate teams and Toronto with 4 games against "meh" teams + Tampa

Huge

 

[Budsfan]

 

[PromisedLand]

I can live with this for now:

Morgan Rielly • Ron Hainsey
Jake Muzzin • Nikita Zaitsev
Martin Marincin • Igor Ozhiganov

Perhaps not fair to Holl, who has played 4 games this year, but I'll take Ozhiganov and Marincin over the Holl we saw the other day.

may be unfair for Holl but he has been a minus in every game he has played. yea sure +/- may not be accurate stat but they do show who is on ice when the goal is scored for/against

his "enhanced" stats aren't that good either (although enhanced stats are kinda garbage without context anyway)

 

[Cor]

may be unfair for Holl but he has been a minus in every game he has played. yea sure +/- may not be accurate stat but they do show who is on ice when the goal is scored for/against

his "enhanced" stats aren't that good either (although enhanced stats are kinda garbage without context anyway)

Holl is easily our worst roster d-man.

I just noticed that Nikita Zaitsev is officially a positive xGF% d-man at ES on the season. His 2019 has had such good results.

@zeke should do a deep dive on him.

 

[Cleetus]

I hope we dash whatever slim chance they have at the post season tonight, a team with Mcdavid that cannot make the playoffs is truly sad......

 

[PromisedLand]

Holl is easily our worst roster d-man.

I just noticed that Nikita Zaitsev is officially a positive xGF% d-man at ES on the season. His 2019 has had such good results.

@zeke should do a deep dive on him.

And this is precisely the reason I think the xGF% is one of the DUMBEST statistic that people use. Heck even the people that derived that statistic acknowledge that is a weak statistic and does not control for shot quality etc...

Shot Quality And Expected Goals: Part I | Corsica

• Shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, deflection, etc.)
• Shot distance (Adjusted4 distance from net)
• Shot angle (Angle in absolute degrees from the central line normal to the goal line)
• Rebounds (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rebound)
• Rush shots (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rush shot)
• Strength state (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was taken on the powerplay)5

are the 6 variables being used to estimate it. NOWHERE in these variables do they every control for whether the shot was rushed because oppositionD closed the gap (same argument for shot angle);

Shot "strength" is definitely not part of it. Imagine Marner taking a wrister versus Ovi taking a wrister from above the circle. that is a massive difference.

from the link above

the correlation with "actual GF%" is like freakin; 0.3 freakin' abysmal

 

[Marshy]

I like Marinciganov against the Oilers bottom 9...













.... and nobody else...















... the entire league...














....why are you still here?

 

[Cor]

And this is precisely the reason I think the xGF% is one of the DUMBEST statistic that people use. Heck even the people that derived that statistic acknowledge that is a weak statistic and does not control for shot quality etc...

Shot Quality And Expected Goals: Part I | Corsica

• Shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, deflection, etc.)
• Shot distance (Adjusted4 distance from net)
• Shot angle (Angle in absolute degrees from the central line normal to the goal line)
• Rebounds (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rebound)
• Rush shots (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rush shot)
• Strength state (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was taken on the powerplay)5

are the 6 variables being used to estimate it. NOWHERE in these variables do they every control for whether the shot was rushed because oppositionD closed the gap (same argument for shot angle);

Shot "strength" is definitely not part of it. Imagine Marner taking a wrister versus Ovi taking a wrister from above the circle. that is a massive difference.

from the link above

the correlation with "actual GF%" is like freakin; 0.3 freakin' abysmal

This was right before the start. "For and Against respectively. xGF% is analogous to GF%, where goals have been substituted with xG. We can easily observe how the inclusion of a shot quality element yields a measure closer to true goal share. "

That chart isn't showing that xGF is a poor metric, but showing it's the most accurate metric we currently have, even if it's not perfect

"I think there’s ample evidence the model does a decent to good job of assessing shot quality given the information available for public consumption"

Expected Goals For vs Against is easily the best metric to use currently.

What he does say, is that xGF% isn't better than CF% at predicting future 5v5 GF%, but rather is better to use on an individual player level.

 

[PromisedLand]

This was right before the start. "For and Against respectively. xGF% is analogous to GF%, where goals have been substituted with xG. We can easily observe how the inclusion of a shot quality element yields a measure closer to true goal share. "

That chart isn't showing that xGF is a poor metric, but showing it's the most accurate metric we currently have.

Expected Goals For vs Against is easily the best metric to use currently.

basically that is showing that out of every 100 guesses you make 30 of them might be true. And this is the "accurate" metric we have;

does having a success rate of 30% in prediction mean it should be used as "gospel" when discussing players here without every touching on teh limitation of the said metric?

 

[Leafs87]

Kadri isn't allowed to play "in a game like this"?

EDIT sorry didn’t see that he’s back

 

[Cor]

basically that is showing that out of every 100 guesses you make 30 of them might be true. And this is the "accurate" metric we have;

does having a success rate of 30% in prediction mean it should be used as "gospel" when discussing players here without every touching on teh limitation of the said metric?

Hockey will never be predictable.

You won't get even close to a 100% prediction model.

29% for xGF is better than 22% for other metrics.

That's the beauty of analytics, it continues to grow and gets better.

It started with Corsi, then Fenwick, and we're now at the point where Expected Goals is the best metric currently.

Analytics and Stats can never tell the full story, but you get more of a story WITH them, than without them.

 

[PromisedLand]

Hockey will never be predictable.

You won't get even close to a 100% prediction model.

29% for xGF is better than 22% for other metrics.

That's the beauty of analytics, it continues to grow and gets better.

It started with Corsi, then Fenwick, and we're now at the point where Expected Goals is the best metric currently.

Analytics and Stats can never tell the full story, but you get more of a story WITH them, than without them.

My only gripe is that folks here use those very limited stats and try to press that it is 100% truth which grinds my gears

 

[CincoHolio]

Could he have chosen a worse picture of Rielly though? Just sayin'.

*love you Henny*

 

[Mattavarner]

Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Moore/Ennis - Kadri - Kapanen
Marleau - Gauthier/Petan - Brown

Rielly - Hainsey
Muzzin - Zaitsev
Gardiner - Dermott

 

[taurine330]

Any official guess for the lineup?

 

[ShaneFalco]

Holl is easily our worst roster d-man.

I just noticed that Nikita Zaitsev is officially a positive xGF% d-man at ES on the season. His 2019 has had such good results.

@zeke should do a deep dive on him.

Meh what 5 games over the course of months
Absolutely no reason not to at least see what you have there