Sportsnet: Leafs half season review.
- Thread starter Fogelhund
- Start date
They HAVE been better recently, but it sure looks really good in our eyes when they outscore the worst team in the league 11-2 over two games. And the win before that they needed OT to beat the 3rd worst team in the league. And before that they beat a good L.A. team but one that is in the middle of a 2w 8L streak, not exactly playing good hockey. So yes, the goals count, the win count (just like the losses count to teams like Buffalo and Ottawa), but the next 10 games could be brutal and will tell us more about this team than any other 2-3 week stretch.
Calgary and Detroit aren't world beaters, but also in the next 10 they of course have Colorado, Edmonton, Vancouver, Seattle (on an 8 game winning streak now), 2 in a row vs Winnipeg, and I think a Dallas game in there.
I don’t disagree with the general point here but I really don’t think we need to focus on the negative spin of the California trip. We shut out LA, a very good team, and we thoroughly dominated the next 3. Sure, the quality of those teams being ANA and SHS wasn’t good, but winning is what you’re supposed to do vs teams like that, it’s not a given however you outplay them so noticeably to get those 3 wins though. Also sometimes a great individual performance forces an OT, I don’t think the ANA goalie having the game of his life and us needing extra time to get that win takes away from the win at all.
But yeah, the next stretch is going to tell us a lot. In terms of strength of schedule we’ve had one of the easiest through the first half, and have one of the hardest the rest of the way. With that said, that might actually be the best thing for us. We’ve dropped a lot of points vs bottom feeders this year already like we always seem to
Feels like they've got a little more heart than usual this year. Since the Gio fight, they've been more willing to fight and battle for each other. But they still get out-willed in rivalry games and lose their heads against hungry opponents. This team is as weak mentally as they've ever been.
Goaltending and defense are not good. There have been some guys stepping up in Jones, Woll, McCabe, and Benoit, but overall we've got a shoddy blueline and shoestrings and hope in net. Both of these things have the potential to derail the season, we are far from locks to make the playoffs. Matthews and Willy are playing great, Marner and Tavares are struggling as much as players with their point totals can be said to.
It's nice that the games are meaningful for the playoffs rather than the tap-in that was last year, but I still can't help shake the feeling that this group just doesn't have it. Because it's the Leafs, when we finally give up hope is when they'll finally figure it out. And then, because they're the Leafs they'll figure it out just enough to get to the third or fourth rounds before blowing it. These are the Leafs after all, and they always find new ways to break your heart.
Goaltending and defense are not good. There have been some guys stepping up in Jones, Woll, McCabe, and Benoit, but overall we've got a shoddy blueline and shoestrings and hope in net. Both of these things have the potential to derail the season, we are far from locks to make the playoffs. Matthews and Willy are playing great, Marner and Tavares are struggling as much as players with their point totals can be said to.
It's nice that the games are meaningful for the playoffs rather than the tap-in that was last year, but I still can't help shake the feeling that this group just doesn't have it. Because it's the Leafs, when we finally give up hope is when they'll finally figure it out. And then, because they're the Leafs they'll figure it out just enough to get to the third or fourth rounds before blowing it. These are the Leafs after all, and they always find new ways to break your heart.
Arzak
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Taylor Halls Teeth
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I am of a similar mind. Beating weak teams is expected and while drubbing them is nice it means little in terms of proving where the team is at. Not to take away from Jones because he is much more reliable than Sammy and has really saved the club from making a desperate goalie addition while they wait for Woll. But they need to beat some good teams and prove they can win without needing one of three guys to shoot the lights out to make it happen.
When you see a club like Chicago hang with the Oilers its a group of foot soldiers executing a game plan because they have no shooters. This team seems to succeed on star effort more than team effort most nights. Their foot soldiers are miles better than the Hawks but they need to execute the way these weak teams do when they challenge a better club.
There is something to be said about the fact they almost never win in regulation, and they almost never lose in regulation.
It's above my paygrade to figure it out
It's above my paygrade to figure it out
BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
B- .. the standings position is fine but the reliance on OT and loser points is concerning. Regulation wins or lackthereof are concerning
But hey, they’ve dominated the regular season in previous years and shit the bed in the playoffs so who knows
But hey, they’ve dominated the regular season in previous years and shit the bed in the playoffs so who knows
TMLife17
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Auston, Willy, Rielly - A/A+
Marner - C
Tavares - D-
Offense as a whole - B+
Defense as a whole - C
Goaltending as a whole - B
Team as a whole - B-
Marner - C
Tavares - D-
Offense as a whole - B+
Defense as a whole - C
Goaltending as a whole - B
Team as a whole - B-
therealkoho
Him/Leaf/fan
Hmmmm
Goodbadgoodbadgoodbadgoodbadgoodbadokbadbadbadgreatgoodokbadbadabadokgreatgoodokbad
Or something very close to that
Goodbadgoodbadgoodbadgoodbadgoodbadokbadbadbadgreatgoodokbadbadabadokgreatgoodokbad
Or something very close to that
They’ve been streaky. Blueline definitely needs an upgrade but other than that including goalies they look fine surprisingly. I’d give them a B.
BraveCanadian
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I know it doesn’t fit the current narrative around here, and Marner has had an uneven season, but he’s into the top 20 now and only 3 points back of Matthews.
TMLife17
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He doesn't look like Magic Mitch to me. I'm not basing my assessment off points, just comparing him to himself of past seasons. And from my point of view he doesn't look as good at all.
...Haven't we only played 39 games? Feels weird to do a half-season review before we've actually played half the season.
He's right about a lot of it though.
He's right about a lot of it though.
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ToneDog
56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
I believe he has had 3, 4 point games so if you do the math he has almost been as inconsistent as Nylander has been consistent. Matty has no goals in 19 games and 33 in 19. Feast or famine.
Mess
Global Moderator
Regulation play is mainly 5v5 when most hockey is played, particularly in the playoffs.
OT/SO in the regular season is circus and gimmick time of 3v3 or shootout designed to settle games, but when REAL hockey starts in the playoffs those gimmicks no longer exist for a reason.
A team that is strong at gimmick play and weak at even strength regular time play is not built for playoff success. Its too bad those results are not reversed and Leafs winning when it matters not when it doesn't.
A team built on talent to be successful at 3v3 OT or the shootout is built more for entertainment purposes then serious Cup contender. IMO
16 of Leafs 39 games [ or 41%] have been decided by gimmicks allowing the Leafs to build up points and wins by meaningless events that simply don't exist come playoff time.
This should concern diehard Leaf fans in this for Cup Championships and not only regular season inflated point total titles and inflated which has rendered regular season all but meaningless except to qualify for the playoffs.
I’m far from shocked that you would take the glass half empty outlook but your takeaways are simply incorrect.
This team isn’t weak at even strength regular play at all. We have only lost 10 games of 39 in regulation. That’s actually 3rd best in the NHL. By your own admission, what happens after that point is gimmicks and cannot be extrapolated to post season play.
Samsonov’s excesssively leaky play was also a major part in so many early OT games.
Beyond that we have 17 ROW and 13 RW so quick math says we’ve won 4 games in 3 on 3 OT. The broadcast last game said we are 4-1 in shootouts, so we’re 8-8 in gimmicks which isn’t some amazing result. Entirely arguable we win a better percentage of those by just having the game play out 5 on 5
There is nothing inflated about our record.
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Buds17
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Winning just four times before the shootout is at least balanced by the team's overall record after regulation (OT: 4-7, SO: 4-1, 8-8 overall). A game exceeding regulation time against a divisional or Conference rival also can have a different sense of meaning in comparison to the Leafs doing so against a team from the West (against whom have those points been earned or squandered?). It'd obviously be great to have Toronto win more games in regulation. Whenever they're unfortunately going to lose though, better to at least see some reward come from it.
Evilhomer
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The only relevance to regulation wins is that serves as one of the tie-breakers. It is otherwise a completely meaningless stat. It is not evidence of a lack of "killer instinct". I imagine if you looked year over year we would see that there is no correlation at all between the teams that win the Cup and their "regulations wins" record relative to overtime and shootout wins.
To me the takeaway should be that only 1 out of every 4 games has the opposition actually been able to beat us in playoff relevant portions of the game and if samsonov had even played average NHL quality this year, it’d be even less than that.
Mess
Global Moderator
Leafs have played 39 games and 16 of those went to 3v3 OT or SO circus time.
That leaves 23 games decided in regulation of which Leafs have lost 10 which means 13 regulation wins at ES in regulation time in 60 minutes. 13 wins vs. 10 losses not very good.
Then when you look at who the Leafs beat in regulation and consider bottom feeders like SJ X 2 and bunch of bottom 16 teams with only a sprinkle coming against Cup contenders.,
Here are those 13 regulation wins.
Here are the top 16 teams in the standings as of Jan 13/2024
Only 5 of Leafs wins in regulation have come against top 16 teams as we near 1/2 a NHL season while the other 8 wins have come against the bottom 16 teams.
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BraveCanadian
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Tampa Bay - 2W, 0L (both OT, Sammy pulls Woll salvaged)
Dallas - 1W, 0L
Florida - 1W, 1L (win in OT)
New York Rangers - 1W, 1L
Nashville - 1W, 1L (loss in OT)
Los Angeles - 1W, 1L
Vancouver - 1W, 0L
Boston - 0W, 2L (both in OT)
New York Islanders - 0W, 2L (both in OT)
In all 16 games vs current playoff opponents (as of Jan 13), we’ve only been beaten in regulation 3 times which is actually even better than against non-playoff teams.
Also, 9/16 games that have gone to overtime/shootout this season were with Samsonov either playing the whole game or getting pulled.
Maple Leaf
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