Leafs cap issues come the off season of 2019?

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glucker

Registered User
Aug 22, 2008
7,883
1,421
London, ON
As of right now. The leafs have 15 million left in cap space rounded down.

Assuming they sign nylander, that will cost them probably 6 million on the low end if not higher imo. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say that then sign him at 6 million. So now they have 9 million left in cap space heading into the 18-19 season.

The 2019 off season rolls around and boom, they have only 9 million left to work with to sign....Matthews, marner, kapanen, and Carrick! Let's give them lots more benefit of the doubt on these salaries. Matthews at 10 million, marner at 7 million, kapanen at only 1.5 million Carrick at 2 million.

Here's where the numbers get tricky
So you could say that with Gardiner's and hainseys contracts running out that they would have 16 million left in cap room. Gardiner will want at least 5-6 million after the last 2 productive seasons with the leafs. Let's say hainsey retires to make it easy based on his age. So now there's 10 million to sign Matthews, marner, kapanen, and carrick!

The point is the leafs are gonna have to move some players around. By the end of next season, and not just one 4-5 millon guy for a cap dump.

So, I'd like to hear some opinions and suggestions on what they do, thank you for reading my pow on this situation!
CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

That site should help. Safe to assume the cap going up by a couple million, too.

The Leafs will likely let Hainsey and Gardiner walk, and will have plenty of room for the rest.
 
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Canada4Gold

Registered User
Dec 22, 2010
42,997
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I find starting from this season and subtracting numbers as they come off is a bad way of going about it. CapFriendly has the current number for 2019/20 with the guys who are under contract for that season. Might as well start there and add on the contract guesses from there. Less work, and as this season starts and tweaks happen it will be more accurate too.

Right now we have 31.5 cap space in 19/20 with 5F/3D/1G signed. Estimate 25ish for the big 3(on the high end IMO) and add back the LTIR for Horton gives us 11.8 space for 4 forwards, 3 D, a goalie and 3 extras. Kapanen for 2, and use Grundstrom, Borgman, Lil, and one of the young goalies all for sub million leaves 6 million for 2 forwards, 1 defence man and 3 extras for about a million a piece. Those could include Carrick, Leivo cheaper resigns or other prospects. Marleau's contract is structured where it potentially could be moved if he agrees if necessary, as well as any extra space from the big 3 signing for less than estimated, and a likely couple million cap increase as usual.

It'll be tight for sure but doable. For sure the stars and 'scrubs', cap management style.
 

Jmo89

Registered User
Mar 21, 2010
4,407
3,916
Your numbers for next season aren't correct, as pointed out above. It should also be noted that in 2020-21 Marleau and Horton both expire, meaning if Toronto needs to push bonuses and/or use the ltir next off season it won't be an issue the following season (2020-21).

Next season will require some smart management by Dubas, but the much more exciting news is that after next seasons cap crunch Toronto will have Matthews*, Marner*, Nylander*, Tavares, Rielly, and Kadri signed for two more seasons with cap space for additions.

*Assuming those guys all get signed to 5+ year contracts.

The management team has actually handled the cap exceptionally well. The cap issues are a one year blip that the media is obsessing about.

Toronto's window is probably opening this season to truly be a contender, and in 20-21 they're most likely going to be able to add to the current core opening the window even wider.

Edit: Also, unless management decides to trade one of the big three for defence which is entirely possible, if someone is getting cut for next year due to cap issues, its Gardiner, not Nylander.
 

IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
8,226
2,649
Toronto
- Anticipate a minimum ~$3M increase in the cap
- Trade Gardiner to San Jose for picks/prospects
- Trade picks/prospects/depth to Minnesota for Jared Spurgeon
- Bridge Nylander for 2 years, take the hit in 2020
- LTIR Horton (in 2019, not this year)

Hyman (2.25) - Tavares (11) - Marner (7.5) - 20.75
Marleau (6.25) - Matthews (10.75) - Nylander (4.5) - 21.5
Johnsson (2) - Kadri (4.5) - Kapanen (2.5) - 9
Grundstrom (.925) - Lindholm (1) - Brown (2.1) - 4.025
"Press-box" (.75)
Forwards - 56.025

Rielly (5) - Spurgeon (5.1875) - 10.1875
Dermott (.863) - Zaitsev (4.5) - 5.363
Rosen (1) - Liljegren (.894) - 1.894
Borgman (1) - Ozhiganov (1) - 2
Defense - 19.4445

Andersen (5)
Sparks (1)
Goalies - 6

Phil Kessel (1.2)

Total - 82.6695

Cup Victory - Priceless
 
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Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
79,034
54,009
There’s a bit of a crunch in 2020 when Marleau is still on the books, the Big Three will have all been re-signed, Kapanen and Johnsson are off their ELCs and Gardiner is a UFA with no obvious big ticket RHD solution on the horizon.
 

Dubcanesfan

Registered User
Jan 6, 2016
120
31
Yeah I F***Ed up those numbers that's for sure didn't think that through too well! Appreciate everyone's thoughts though with the correct numbers in place from other people!
 

IrishInOntario

Registered User
May 18, 2013
3,103
2,689
Your numbers are off. They have $15.5 million in cap space right now, plus they have the exemption money due to Horton's injury if they need to use it. They are able to exceed the cap because of that.

15.5 million as of now becomes...

Josh Leivo expires= $925,000
Auston Matthews expires= $925,000
Mitch Marner expires= $900,000
Kasperi Kapanen expires= $850,000
Tyler Ennis expires= $650,000
Jake Gardiner expires= $4 million
Ron Hainsey expires= $3 million
Connor Carrick expires= $1.3 million
Curtis McElhinney= $850,000
Total= $13.4 million

15.5 + 13.4 = $28.9 million

William Nylander + Mitch Marner = $14 million (whether that's 7 and 7, 8 and 6 or 7.5 and 6.5 is irrelevant to the point)
Auston Matthews= $10 million

If the cap doesn't increase (it almost certainly will by a little bit) you have just shy of $5 million remaining in space before you consider being able to exceed the cap due too Horton's LTIR money.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
79,034
54,009
I wonder if we can keep Gardiner on a shorter term deal after this season.
 

A1LeafNation

Obsession beats talent everytime!!
Oct 17, 2010
27,470
17,456
There are literally two contracts that aren’t below market value as of July 2019.

1. Zaitsev can turn this into a below market deal if he can regain his form.

2. Marleau who can be traded after his bonus is paid out back to SJ to retire. They are looking for players.

Matthews (10) Marner (7.5) Nylander (7) all per year at 8 years for RFAs will be below market value and should be the goal for all parties involved. If an UFA like a Tavares took a below market value, the rest should follow that example.
 

Whaleafs

“The Leafs are mulch again”
Mar 24, 2017
1,348
2,068
HFX
- Trade Gardiner to San Jose for picks/prospects
- Trade picks/prospects/depth to Minnesota for Jared Spurgeon

Trading Gardiner for Spurgeon 1 for 1 with Minnesota might be an easier deal since Gardiner is from there and would be likely to re-sign with them on an expiring contract.
 

rent free

Registered User
Apr 6, 2015
20,427
6,114
Trading Gardiner for Spurgeon 1 for 1 with Minnesota might be an easier deal since Gardiner is from there and would be likely to re-sign with them on an expiring contract.
both teams have to agree to a trade. i don't envision any logical scenario where the wild would agree to that trade
 
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IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
8,226
2,649
Toronto
Trading Gardiner for Spurgeon 1 for 1 with Minnesota might be an easier deal since Gardiner is from there and would be likely to re-sign with them on an expiring contract.
If it is, do it up, but they have Brodin and Suter on the left side already. (Unless one of them plays their off-side, in which case, that's perfect)
 

mallory67

Registered User
Jul 2, 2015
2,581
921
North Carolina
A lot of worry out there about the Cap.

Can we just understand that not having any players wroth more then 5-6 Million was not exactly a good thing right?
It meant we had no NHL level stars. For years we had nobody and no Cap problems. We also had no success.

To win we need awesome players and yes those awesome payers cost $10M give or take a couple of million.
Bring on the tight Cap!
 

Puckstuff

Registered User
May 12, 2010
11,138
3,337
Milton
Actually we are in really good cap space. Even moving forward; we can keep the big 4. 2022-23 is the year it get's dicey with Rielly and Kadri due for new contracts. Grundstrom could be coming off his ELC at that time too.
 
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