Post-Game Talk: Leafs Beat Zebras 4-3

[The Hanging Jowl]

Ugh Matthews doesn’t look good.

Yup. I'm seriously freaked out about him now. Something is seriously wrong.

 

[saltming]

I'm not sure this is the right mentality to build a serious cup contender around - has Ottawa from last year or Colorado from a few years back written all over it. Tampa Bay looks pretty dominant in most contests they play - it's not just put luck or goal-tending stealing games, and I don't believe the Leafs are in the same tier.

If you want a cup in Toronto, you shouldn't be simply satisfied with where we are, you should always want us to be the best.

I said the best team looks good lots of the times but sometimes they don't
Colorado was always lucky. The send were on the border and had more luck that year than normal.
The point is that we are not those teams. We have a good possession game and it will come back soon. We are young and still learning. We are also trending well. This is the 2nd year we are still winning and having a good share of dominant games.

 

[CanadasTeam]

Yup. I'm seriously freaked out about him now. Something is seriously wrong.

Pretty sure you're not alone. Also I would not be surprised if he misses tonight's game, that collision with #44 looked terribad

 

[MapleLeafistan]

This game wasn't as badly reffed as that one Leafs-Pens game a couple of years ago. Leafs were leading I think 3-1 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd and the refs game the Pens like 4 straight powerplays and ended up winning the game in regulation I think.

This game almost felt similar...but this Leafs team had the talent to save the game....let me try and find the highlights of that game...I remember Malkin and Crosby gooning it up and flopping all around...I was so irrate.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Crosby was a 95% possession player and there are still people thinking we handled him well lmao

 

[Nithoniniel]

Pretty sure you're not alone. Also I would not be surprised if he misses tonight's game, that collision with #44 looked terribad

That line just look dysfunctional to me. Hyman and Brown as a combination seem to be tripping over each other, and both have a tendency to pull all traffic around Matthews.

But he lacks the non-stop motor and bulldozing power that he's had before, for sure.

 

[The Legend]

Right. This whole "underlying numbers" predicted a decline nonsense.

I've tackled this many times myself. With r2 and correlations and challenges. Let me simply say that if these underlying numbers were so predictive, sports gambling houses would be broke.

They clearly aren't.

And if you continually play good and win odds are you will eventually lose.

All winning streaks come to an end.

See "independent events"

I remember you now. Logical fallacy salesman to the moon. No statistical model is going to be perfect over a small sample size. The concern is that over time, results catch up with performance. But I recall that many people have explained this to you on multiple occasions, and I suspect you're just being intentionally obtuse at this point.

And "sports gambling houses" adjust their lines to action and betting patterns (to get equal money on both sides), so I am confused what you're talking about there.

Results are independent, performance isn't. Hence why you'd be able to better guess my golf handicap after seeing me on the range rather than guessing blind.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

I said the best team looks good lots of the times but sometimes they don't
Colorado was always lucky. The send were on the border and had more luck that year than normal.
The point is that we are not those teams. We have a good possession game and it will come back soon. We are young and still learning. We are also trending well. This is the 2nd year we are still winning and having a good share of dominant games.

But, I can count on one hand the games we’ve dominated. Some of that is youth, but part is the marginalization of some of our young stars. I can understand though not agree that Marner and Nylander be placed on a fourth line for a game or two, but what Babcock is doing with Nylander is abhorrent. He played very well the last 3 games despite playing with avg players. I agree with Nith that tonight wasn’t his best game but can you blame the kid, he’s probably disheartened.

 

[MapleLeafistan]

Ahh yes...this game. November 27 2013...

Leafs were leading 4-1 in the 2nd period...then the refs gave the Pens two ridiculous PPs and they scored on both....4-3...then Kadri scored in the last seconds of the 2nd....5-3 Leafs.

In the 3rd, the refs screw the Leafs again and gave the pens a 2 man advantage...Pens scored....5-4.

Then the Pens crashed into Bernier (obvious goaltender interference) and scored, but the goal stayed. 5-5.

Leafs lose in the shootout 6-5.

 

[The Legend]

Nylander barely touched the puck tonight. He barely had any completed passes, and had the puck with control in the offensive zone once.

I'm the furthest thing from a Nylander critic, but I see absolutely no way to arrive at the conclusion that you did after this game.

Just to add some context here, he played 8 minutes on the 4th line.

 

[Pookie]

I remember you now. Logical fallacy salesman to the moon. No statistical model is going to be perfect over a small sample size. The concern is that over time, results catch up with performance. But I recall that many people have explained this to you on multiple occasions, and I suspect you're just being intentionally obtuse at this point.

And "sports gambling houses" adjust their lines to action and betting patterns (to get equal money on both sides), so I am confused what you're talking about there.

Results are independent, performance isn't. Hence why you'd be able to better guess my golf handicap after seeing me on the range rather than guessing blind.

Teams play each other.

Performance is dependent on reacting and adjusting to a different opponent every night, every shift.

And those variables change every game. Sometimes between periods.

You'd like this to be like auto play on PlayStation but fortunately, it's not.

 

[CanadasTeam]

That line just look dysfunctional to me. Hyman and Brown as a combination seem to be tripping over each other, and both have a tendency to pull all traffic around Matthews.

But he lacks the non-stop motor and bulldozing power that he's had before, for sure.

Agree. I guess it's what makes Babcock's job complex where some others fail to consider, have the best line vs. team A and completely obliterated against team B.. so fun!

 

[DarkKnight]

Hopefully we can turn it around and get out of 2nd in the conference.

 

[CanadasTeam]

Ahh yes...this game. November 27 2013...

Leafs were leading 4-1 in the 2nd period...then the refs gave the Pens two ridiculous PPs and they scored on both....4-3...then Kadri scored in the last seconds of the 2nd....5-3 Leafs.

In the 3rd, the refs screw the Leafs again and gave the pens a 2 man advantage...Pens scored....5-4.

Then the Pens crashed into Bernier (obvious goaltender interference) and scored, but the goal stayed. 5-5.

Leafs lose in the shootout 6-5.

Oh man... 2013 just seems like such a forgettable season for the Leafs

 

[member 262271]

This game wasn't as badly reffed as that one Leafs-Pens game a couple of years ago. Leafs were leading I think 3-1 with 10 minutes left in the 3rd and the refs game the Pens like 4 straight powerplays and ended up winning the game in regulation I think.

This game almost felt similar...but this Leafs team had the talent to save the game....let me try and find the highlights of that game...I remember Malkin and Crosby gooning it up and flopping all around...I was so irrate.

Was that the one where they pushed Bernier into the net for the tying goal? I remember being mad about it then a friend reminded me the leafs had 0 shots in the third period.

EDIT: Just saw your post above.

 

[therealkoho]

Babcock is breaking Nylander like he would a bronco. It's sad what he's doing to that kid. So much skill, stuck on the 4th line, even after playing well the past 3 games. It's not like Hyman and Brown have been well alongside Matthews. Where is your sense of fairness Babcock?

Nylander seems to lone wolf way too much when he's out there, he was on with Matthews in the 2nd had an opportunity to set something up and just flat out made a selfish play and lost the puck.

The kid has so much talent it's frustrating to watch him go through these periods of disinterest in the team game. You cannot continually put yourself above the others on the ice and do it all yourself.

Babcock is looking for one thing from him and that's structured play within the line/system, and for some reason Nylander continually seems to fall into being a lone wolf, even when he's with Matthews.

I mean you'd have to be an idiot to not understand that he's not a 4th line player and Babcock is no idiot! Nylander is so much more talented then his current linemates it almost hurts. Being that much better then those guys it means that he needs to lift them up and make them better, he's not doing that!

Do you ever see Sid not trying to use his linemates to his advantage, Sid always has to play with inferior players and yet he uses them to advance the play into becoming scoring chances which quite obviously makes him a better player. Do any of you think that if Sid went out and puck-hogged he'd score anywhere near as frequent as he has over his career?not likely cause he'd be seeing a lot less ice time.

 

[therealkoho]

It's getting ridiculous

Marner was promoted back from the 4th line so quick. Nylander could cure cancer and he'd still be on the 4th line.

you don't remember the shot generation and shot suppression and Marner's little scoring streak with the 4th line, one of the reasons he was promoted back to his line, in fact if I were a betting man, Id say if Nylander had been playing well with Matthews, Mitch would've stayed on the 4th a lot longer(not taking anything away from Mitch) the kid is turning into a hell of an NHLer, well rounded and very disciplined

 

[therealkoho]

because you say so, right?

no it's because he's that good, so many people underestimate Brown, and they've all been wrong

 

[therealkoho]

COME ONNNNNNNNNNN

Nylander is NOT anywhere close to Malkin... For one, he isn't a center (at least not yet). For two, he's nowhere as good... this is just absurd.

not to mention Nylander is not an NHL centre

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Just watched the game in and hour replay. Leafs really outplayed them in the first two periods, obviously especially the Bozak line. They were hemmed in the entire third period but so what? They wouldn't have been in that position (a close game) at all if it wasn't for some game management by the refs.

There have been some ugly wins in the last few weeks but I honestly don't see this as one of them.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

This was a rough game for us, I think, and one where I'm going to point the finger a lot on Babcock. Three of four lines doesn't work well right now, and two of them got completely mashed in and couldn't find each other if their life depended on it, and they got repeatedly thrown out there to get beaten up. It's not that he threw tons of ice time on particular players, it's that he chose to give them to guys that were completely under the ice tonight. I'm a huge fan of Babcock, but he can certainly be rigid and tonight it's hard to argue that it wasn't to the detriment of the team.

If we continue playing these lines and show no inclination to adapting in our breakout systems, we'll continue to perform like this, and it'll come back to haunt us.

Great
Bozak - This line had a terrific night in all regards. They were dangerous more or less every shift, and was flying out there. Shame they barely got used.
Marner - Mitchy was absolutely buzzing tonight, barely saw him out there not flying around getting to pucks, attacking the opposition, and tearing down their structure.

Good
JVR - The least good on a terrific line. They talked about how JVR is nursing an injury, anybody know anything about that?

Average
Brown - His line was absolutely dysfunctional, but Brown looked good on the PK and had a few high-end plays on the other end for us.
Rielly - Offensively dynamic, defensively questionable.
Polak - Got sheltered all to hell, but hard to complain about how he managed it.
Andersen - Andersen was fine tonight.

Bad
Marleau - Showed some life and initiative at times, and didn't just turtle in front of the onslaught.
Moore - Got thrown up the lineup for some reason and got absolutely toyed with.
Martin - We might as well have played without him tonight. I don't see the point in playing someone 5 minutes where they do nothing. Get a PKer in there at least.
Gardiner - Did the best he could, but his matchups got caved in.
Zaitsev - Same as Gardiner. Had nothing against them individually, but neither provided some spark that could alleviate all that pressure.
Hainsey - Pretty much the same as the other pairing.
Borgman - Super sheltered minutes, did OK in them but had a few too many mistakes for my taste.

Awful
Matthews - Auston got schooled tonight.
Hyman - Hyman did nothing right, but had over 20 minutes of ice time and looked like he could barely move towards the end. Jeez, Babs.
Kadri - Naz got schooled tonight.
Komarov - The biggest issue on that line. Komarov couldn't handle the puck, couldn't contain his guys, got outskated, outskilled, outworked (!).
Nylander - Barely moved.

I feel like your assessment is off tonight (which is unusal), and biased by the third period.

For the first two periods, Pittsburgh generated very little offense except when on the power play. After the first Pitts goal, I looked and the shots were pretty much even (22-19 Pittsburgh maybe?), which considering the score effects of an instant 2-0 lead and early 3-0 lead is pretty good.

After Pittsburgh's second goal, the feeling wasn't "they're dominated us and they're back in it," the feeling was "they're weaseling their way back in it.". Their first goal was undeserved (obviously), and the second came on a power play as a result of an accidental high stick at the end of a shift that the Matthews line had dominated. The Leafs had another shift where they dominated enough to change on the fly while sustaining pressure in the offensive zone.

As for Babcock's coaching, if you're going to say he coached poorly, I think you have to point at specific decisions he made. I know that unlike some on the board, you're not slobbering over the chance to say he got out-coached, so I think it's worth the effort to explain the decisions I saw and how I interpreted them:

1. The Pittsburgh coaching staff identified that the Leafs only had two centres they dared put out against Crosby/Malkin. They realize that they could play the crap out of those two lines and the Leafs would be just as tired as the Pens because they were hard-matched against them. Having tired players on both sides can be advantageous to the team that is trying to come back, as this can lead to sloppy play. So as Leafs' coach, what do you do? Your choices are to either start giving Bozak's line matchups against Crosby/Malkin, or keep hard-matching. Personally, I keep Bozak's line away from those two. Don't get me wrong. That line had some terrific push-back shifts in the third period, going up against the Pens' third line. But they were going up against the Pens' third line. If you put them out against Malkin (for example),they probably get owned, maybe end up icing it, and now a fresh Crosby comes out against them. You could argue that the other lines were being dominated, so what's the difference, but the Kadri/Matthews lines were bending-but-not-breaking, and actually playing very hard in the d-zone. In fact, the only icing I remember was Hyman's, and that wasn't a desperation icing, it was a case of trying to feather it and getting the weight wrong. (I just mention the lack of icings as a way of demonstrating the Leafs' compete level - they were only barely containing Pittsburgh, but the battle was still there.)

2. After Hyman's horrible shift, Babcock stuck with the same lines. I disagree with you that Hyman had a horrible game, but he did have a very bad shift, where he repeatedly couldn't clear the zone, and then when he did, he iced it. This is the one decision I disagree with Babcock on - if he's having that much trouble, why not just replace him with Nylander - not for the offense, but just to have someone who can hopefully skate the puck out and prevent the Leafs from being pinned so much.

3. Moving Marleau on to Bozak's line late. Despite Bozak's line playing very well, Babcock actually seemed still more concerned with the danger of Bozak's line getting caught out and being stuck in a mismatch, so he actually gave them some defensive help in the form of Marleau. I'm on board with this. As bad as Hyman looked trying to clear the puck on that shift, it's something we see from JVR a lot, Mitch gets into trouble when he starts trying to do much and abandoning his assignment, and I'm very scared of Bozak trying to cover either of the big two. For me it's a solid decision.

4. Replacing Marleau with Moore on Kadri's line. Someone had to fill the role, and there were three possible choices - JVR, Nylander, or Moore. In this case Babcock went with the "trusty veteran". It's kind of funny/ironic that Babcock gets accused of loving his veterans, because it was three 2nd year players tasked with stopping Crosby, and that trusty veteran was actually replacing another veteran (JVR), not a young player. In any event, I don't have a particular preference for who would have been the best of the three to take this role, but I felt Moore did fine once he was on the line.

In another post, you mentioned that Kadri and Matthews had something like 20% or 30% of shot attempts. While the eye test can be dangerous, especially when looking at individual players, I think the eye test is pretty good for determining the general flow of the game - I mean it's pretty obvious just from watching where the puck is and how good of scoring chances a team is getting, and the eye test usually coincides with statistics in this regard anyway. I would submit that where it does not coincide for a game, it is at least worth acknowledging the possibility that it might be the stats rather than the eye test that is wrong and taking a deeper dive. There are some posts that suggest the Leafs got the majority of both scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances - I don't know what the source of these stats is or whether it is reliable, but there is at least some suggestion that the game (looking at the full 60 minutes) was not as one-sided as shot-attempt stats might suggest.

In terms of player ratings, I would have Bozak and Marner as good, Gardiner as good, Matthews as Average, Kadri as bad or average, and Hyman as bad. Possibly covered my reasons why above, but essentially I'm looking at these criteria - I'm trying to look at the full 60 minutes, I have to understand that sometimes a good team will be able to achieve a full-on assault and respect that these players withstood it, and I think on this night you are putting stats too heavily into your analysis of the players (either directly or indirectly). (EDIT: and I dropped Bozak/Marner to good because IMO it was partly the requirement to shelter that line that resulted in the one-sided third. Maybe it's a bit unfair to judge them for shifts they didn't have.)

That's my two cents.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Just watched the game in and hour replay. Leafs really outplayed them in the first two periods, obviously especially the Bozak line. They were hemmed in the entire third period but so what? They wouldn't have been in that position (a close game) at all if it wasn't for some game management by the refs.

There have been some ugly wins in the last few weeks but I honestly don't see this as one of them.

Where did you get the full replay? Are they still available on CBC's website like they used to be? I kind of wanted to have a second look, still doubting how accurate my assessment was.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Where did you get the full replay? Are they still available on CBC's website like they used to be? I kind of wanted to have a second look, still doubting how accurate my assessment was.

LeafsTV Game In and Hour.

Edit: Geez, two straight posts where I said "and" instead of "an". Dopey.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I can't believe it. Komarov and Hyman got over 20 minutes of ice time, lol!

 

[White Shadow]

I feel like your assessment is off tonight (which is unusal), and biased by the third period.

For the first two periods, Pittsburgh generated very little offense except when on the power play. After the first Pitts goal, I looked and the shots were pretty much even (22-19 Pittsburgh maybe?), which considering the score effects of an instant 2-0 lead and early 3-0 lead is pretty good.

After Pittsburgh's second goal, the feeling wasn't "they're dominated us and they're back in it," the feeling was "they're weaseling their way back in it.". Their first goal was undeserved (obviously), and the second came on a power play as a result of an accidental high stick at the end of a shift that the Matthews line had dominated. The Leafs had another shift where they dominated enough to change on the fly while sustaining pressure in the offensive zone.

As for Babcock's coaching, if you're going to say he coached poorly, I think you have to point at specific decisions he made. I know that unlike some on the board, you're not slobbering over the chance to say he got out-coached, so I think it's worth the effort to explain the decisions I saw and how I interpreted them:

1. The Pittsburgh coaching staff identified that the Leafs only had two centres they dared put out against Crosby/Malkin. They realize that they could play the crap out of those two lines and the Leafs would be just as tired as the Pens because they were hard-matched against them. Having tired players on both sides can be advantageous to the team that is trying to come back, as this can lead to sloppy play. So as Leafs' coach, what do you do? Your choices are to either start giving Bozak's line matchups against Crosby/Malkin, or keep hard-matching. Personally, I keep Bozak's line away from those two. Don't get me wrong. That line had some terrific push-back shifts in the third period, going up against the Pens' third line. But they were going up against the Pens' third line. If you put them out against Malkin (for example),they probably get owned, maybe end up icing it, and now a fresh Crosby comes out against them. You could argue that the other lines were being dominated, so what's the difference, but the Kadri/Matthews lines were bending-but-not-breaking, and actually playing very hard in the d-zone. In fact, the only icing I remember was Hyman's, and that wasn't a desperation icing, it was a case of trying to feather it and getting the weight wrong. (I just mention the lack of icings as a way of demonstrating the Leafs' compete level - they were only barely containing Pittsburgh, but the battle was still there.)

2. After Hyman's horrible shift, Babcock stuck with the same lines. I disagree with you that Hyman had a horrible game, but he did have a very bad shift, where he repeatedly couldn't clear the zone, and then when he did, he iced it. This is the one decision I disagree with Babcock on - if he's having that much trouble, why not just replace him with Nylander - not for the offense, but just to have someone who can hopefully skate the puck out and prevent the Leafs from being pinned so much.

3. Moving Marleau on to Bozak's line late. Despite Bozak's line playing very well, Babcock actually seemed still more concerned with the danger of Bozak's line getting caught out and being stuck in a mismatch, so he actually gave them some defensive help in the form of Marleau. I'm on board with this. As bad as Hyman looked trying to clear the puck on that shift, it's something we see from JVR a lot, Mitch gets into trouble when he starts trying to do much and abandoning his assignment, and I'm very scared of Bozak trying to cover either of the big two. For me it's a solid decision.

4. Replacing Marleau with Moore on Kadri's line. Someone had to fill the role, and there were three possible choices - JVR, Nylander, or Moore. In this case Babcock went with the "trusty veteran". It's kind of funny/ironic that Babcock gets accused of loving his veterans, because it was three 2nd year players tasked with stopping Crosby, and that trusty veteran was actually replacing another veteran (JVR), not a young player. In any event, I don't have a particular preference for who would have been the best of the three to take this role, but I felt Moore did fine once he was on the line.

In another post, you mentioned that Kadri and Matthews had something like 20% or 30% of shot attempts. While the eye test can be dangerous, especially when looking at individual players, I think the eye test is pretty good for determining the general flow of the game - I mean it's pretty obvious just from watching where the puck is and how good of scoring chances a team is getting, and the eye test usually coincides with statistics in this regard anyway. I would submit that where it does not coincide for a game, it is at least worth acknowledging the possibility that it might be the stats rather than the eye test that is wrong and taking a deeper dive. There are some posts that suggest the Leafs got the majority of both scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances - I don't know what the source of these stats is or whether it is reliable, but there is at least some suggestion that the game (looking at the full 60 minutes) was not as one-sided as shot-attempt stats might suggest.

In terms of player ratings, I would have Bozak and Marner as good, Gardiner as good, Matthews as Average, Kadri as bad or average, and Hyman as bad. Possibly covered my reasons why above, but essentially I'm looking at these criteria - I'm trying to look at the full 60 minutes, I have to understand that sometimes a good team will be able to achieve a full-on assault and respect that these players withstood it, and I think on this night you are putting stats too heavily into your analysis of the players (either directly or indirectly). (EDIT: and I dropped Bozak/Marner to good because IMO it was partly the requirement to shelter that line that resulted in the one-sided third. Maybe it's a bit unfair to judge them for shifts they didn't have.)

That's my two cents.

I don't know how to post heat maps in here, but the overwhelming majority of the Pens shots on goal were from the point.

Scoring chances: Toronto 27 Pittsburgh 19
HD Scoring chances: Toronto 14 Pittsburgh 6

This was a perfect snapshot of how Babcock wants to play