Salary Cap: Leafs' 2014-2015 Cap Situation and Strategy

[FreeBird]

So what if Holland doesn't make the team

He has to clear waivers, if he's picked up by another team you've given up a 2nd a 7th, and Blacker. Dumb cap move dumb trade if this happens. that's why I just can't trust Nonis. Bolland was injured but the facts are they gave up three draft picks and now Bolland is gone when his contract demands were ridiculous. So two 2nd's two 4th's and a 7th with nothing to show for it. Although Nonis talks much less than Burke but his management style leads to erratic moves that keep haunting us. Two 2nd's turned into two big Swedish D'men for Hawks and Ducks and LA waiting in the wings to snatch up next years 2dn rd pick. To Shanny don't leave your legacy to this Burke infested front office and scouting staff, or you'll just be remembered as another failure in long list of failures that have come before you.

 

[Northern Dancer]

So you're saying acquiring Kessel at age 21 waiting 10-12 years and then when he is 31-33 years old the rebuild will be at a point where Leafs are Cup competitive annually if everything goes well and on plan?.

I see a team that finished 8th from the bottom of the league, one of the worst defensive teams that just swapped out 1/2 their forwards and nearly 1/2 the D as a strong indication that this wasn't a very good team. The major roster turnover a sign that things were not going as planned but rather a change in direction was needed.

I see a team that spends to the cap ceiling and finishing in the bottom 10 overall in 6 of the last 7 seasons as one that has serious cap management issues and talent and team building concerns..

I have hope that once Shanny and Dubas get more experience and then we will see major moves to the core not the fringe players as they continue to reshape this team into one that can be competitive not just passing time.

Should have known where this is going !!!!

 

[Mess]

So you want the cap space and not the holes?

You can't have it both ways.

2011-12
NYI 79 points (4th last) ... Toronto 80 points (5th last)

2013-14
NYI 79 poins (5th last) .. Toronto 84 points (8th last)

Isles spend to the Cap floor while Toronto spends to the cap ceiling +$16 mil more on players using all their cap space and both team produce relatively similar results finishing bottom 8 overall.

NYI is explainable as they're rebuilding and spending far less on talent and keeping lots of free cap space in reserve and drafting high as a result.

Toronto is spending however like the teams that are cup competitive, so why are the results similar to one spending near the cap floor?.

Again this season NYI have one of the lowest salaries and Leafs one of the highest so what happens if the NYI finish above Toronto?

 

[TMLegend]

I really feel this could be the supposed "core" of this teams last hurrah. Kessel, Phaneuf, Lupul, etc. have all been here for not one, not two, but three horrific collapses. At some point you can't just say there's a lack of leadership or lack of experience in the locker room. At some point, you just have to get the damn job done.

Management has shuffled quite a few chairs to give these guys another chance. If they fail once again, I would anticipate there will be big moves coming at the trade deadline and into next off-season.

 

[Northern Dancer]

2011-12
NYI 79 points (4th last) ... Toronto 80 points (5th last)

2013-14
NYI 79 poins (5th last) .. Toronto 84 points (8th last)

Isles spend to the Cap floor while Toronto spends to the cap ceiling +$16 mil more on players using all their cap space and both team produce relatively similar results finishing bottom 8 overall.

NYI is explainable as they're rebuilding and spending far less on talent and keeping lots of free cap space in reserve and drafting high as a result.

Toronto is spending however like the teams that are cup competitive, so why are the results similar to one spending near the cap floor?.

Again this season NYI have one of the lowest salaries and Leafs one of the highest so what happens if the NYI finish above Toronto?

Which way do you want it Mess, if NYI finish ahead of Leafs it will indicate a good draft pick. You are all over the map in this thread and keep changing the goal posts, we have gone from the L.A. Kings and Hawks to the NYI. LOL !!!

 

[Northern Dancer]

I really feel this could be the supposed "core" of this teams last hurrah. Kessel, Phaneuf, Lupul, etc. have all been here for not one, not two, but three horrific collapses. At some point you can't just say there's a lack of leadership or lack of experience in the locker room. At some point, you just have to get the damn job done.

Management has shuffled quite a few chairs to give these guys another chance. If they fail once again, I would anticipate there will be big moves coming at the trade deadline and into next off-season.

I agree with this, I would think the Leafs will be massive sellers at the TD (with some excellent assets for sale) if we are not looking good.

Some posters here are convinced Nonis is shooting for the Cup this year. It is obvious that 2017 (Leafs 100th anniversary) is what MLSE is building for. (Stamkos anyone).

The very same posters who always wanted a so called "proper re-build" are the ones with the least patience.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes and no.

If I told you that Bolland offer was legit but if he signed it we were moving Lupul for a pair of 2nd round picks does that change your opinion of the offer?

As fans we try and draw conclusions while only knowing the end result and not all the factors that went into that decision.

You can never be sure any team is on the right track. Most of us 5 years ago would have expected Pittsburgh to be the team with multiple Cups at this point, not Chicago and LA.

Ok fair point. You can't blame people for having less faith then you might want them to though considering what we've had to put up with it for so many years. Maybe we're finally on the right track, maybe not. I will say though that I am skeptical because even even if there was some kind of justifiable plan in place for offering Bolland that kind of deal, I see no justification for the trade that brought him here in the first place. I hated that deal (even more than the Clarkson signing) because I could only see it ending one of two ways, we either overpay to sign him, or we lose him and the picks we gave up for him. And I'm sick and tired of people talking as if those picks are almost worthless.

Maybe that was all on Nonis and now that Shanahan is in charge, Nonis will soon be gone and things will change? I sure hope so.

On a more positive note, I think another big part of what makes a contender is luck. Whether it's luck in winning the draft lottery, luck in trades working out better than anyone would have hoped, or luck in the players you draft turning out awesome (you can scout all you want but it's never a sure thing). On that front, there is reason to hope IMO. The fact that Nylander slipped to us in the draft ... you never know but maybe, just maybe he'll turn out to be the next Stamkos and him dropping to us will be talked about for the foreseeable future as the luckiest thing ever to happen to the Leafs.

One can only hope that if this does turn out to be the case, we will not screw it up but actually build a winner around him.

He has to clear waivers, if he's picked up by another team you've given up a 2nd a 7th, and Blacker. Dumb cap move dumb trade if this happens. that's why I just can't trust Nonis. Bolland was injured but the facts are they gave up three draft picks and now Bolland is gone when his contract demands were ridiculous. So two 2nd's two 4th's and a 7th with nothing to show for it. Although Nonis talks much less than Burke but his management style leads to erratic moves that keep haunting us. Two 2nd's turned into two big Swedish D'men for Hawks and Ducks and LA waiting in the wings to snatch up next years 2dn rd pick. To Shanny don't leave your legacy to this Burke infested front office and scouting staff, or you'll just be remembered as another failure in long list of failures that have come before you.

Bingo. I would love to see us go through a few years without any moves that seem doomed from the start like this one seemed to me to be.

 

[Mess]

Which way do you want it Mess, if NYI finish ahead of Leafs it will indicate a good draft pick. You are all over the map in this thread and keep changing the goal posts, we have gone from the L.A. Kings and Hawks to the NYI. LOL !!!

There are always two measuring sticks the top teams or the bottom teams as well as the cap ceiling and the cap floor cap, actual spending verses actual results produced for evaluating cap management.

Leafs spend like the top teams but produce results like the bottom teams. Why?

Teams don't need to spend to the cap ceiling to produce a top draft pick as that is what teams spending to the floor do. The fact the Leafs finish near the bottom while trying/believing they're a playoff team annually is a strong indication that cap management & talent evaluation is an issue as the results don't match the spending habits.

Shanahan already fired Claude Loiselle the Leafs capologist, and I'm pretty sure that wasn't because he was doing a good job managing it, but rather another indication there is a problem.

 

[seanlinden]

Ok fair point. You can't blame people for having less faith then you might want them to though considering what we've had to put up with it for so many years. Maybe we're finally on the right track, maybe not. I will say though that I am skeptical because even even if there was some kind of justifiable plan in place for offering Bolland that kind of deal, I see no justification for the trade that brought him here in the first place. I hated that deal (even more than the Clarkson signing) because I could only see it ending one of two ways, we either overpay to sign him, or we lose him and the picks we gave up for him. And I'm sick and tired of people talking as if those picks are almost worthless.

Maybe that was all on Nonis and now that Shanahan is in charge, Nonis will soon be gone and things will change? I sure hope so.

On a more positive note, I think another big part of what makes a contender is luck. Whether it's luck in winning the draft lottery, luck in trades working out better than anyone would have hoped, or luck in the players you draft turning out awesome (you can scout all you want but it's never a sure thing). On that front, there is reason to hope IMO. The fact that Nylander slipped to us in the draft ... you never know but maybe, just maybe he'll turn out to be the next Stamkos and him dropping to us will be talked about for the foreseeable future as the luckiest thing ever to happen to the Leafs.

One can only hope that if this does turn out to be the case, we will not screw it up but actually build a winner around him.



Bingo. I would love to see us go through a few years without any moves that seem doomed from the start like this one seemed to me to be.

Personally, I see this as a bigger screwup.

You have 3 centres, all coming up for contracts within a 2 year span. Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, and Mikhail Grabovski. Only one of them plays well with your star player, and none are remotely well suited for the 3rd line. Rather than making a decision and sticking to it, we try to do everything, and force our way into buying out Grabovski.

We then trade a couple of 2nds for 1 year of injury-prone Dave Bolland to replace Grabo. Then have to trade another 2nd, to get a replacement for Bolland in Peter Holland. We then have to use a regular buyout on JML/Gleason, because we used the others on Grabovski/Komisarek. Grand scheme of things, don't buy out Grabovski, don't sign Clarkson or trade for Bolland, and you've got no cap penalties, 3 more 2nd round picks, and are paying $1.5m more for Grabovski over the next 3 years than the Isles are paying over 4.

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

Which way do you want it Mess, if NYI finish ahead of Leafs it will indicate a good draft pick. You are all over the map in this thread and keep changing the goal posts, we have gone from the L.A. Kings and Hawks to the NYI. LOL !!!

You're missing the point. The Isles don't spend and, understandably so, finish low in the standings. The Leafs do spend and also finish low in the standings. The question therein is why can't Leafs management outperform NY's with much more resources available to them?

 

[Northern Dancer]

There is always two measuring sticks the top teams or the bottom teams as well as the cap ceiling and the cap floor.

Leafs spend like the top teams but produce results like the bottom teams. Why?

Teams don't need to spend to the cap ceiling to produce a top draft pick as that is what teams spending to the floor do. The fact the Leafs finish near the bottom while trying/believing they're a playoff team anually is a strong indication that cap management & talent evaluation is an issue.

Shanahan already fired Claude Loiselle the Leafs capologist, and I'm pretty sure that wasn't because he was doing a good job managing it.

You cannot compare a small market team to a big market team. Big market teams are big for a reason, they sell-out (at ridiculous prices) and have huge corporate and marketing deals. They cannot bilk their supporters and spend to the floor. Look what happened to the Blue Jays attendance once fans got the perception that Rogers was going through the motions with payroll. They are still struggling at the gate.

 

[Northern Dancer]

You're missing the point. The Isles don't spend and, understandably so, finish low in the standings. The Leafs do spend and also finish low in the standings. The question therein is why can't Leafs management outperform NY's with much more resources available to them?

The answer is the Leafs have a much brighter future than the NYI, just have patience.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Personally, I see this as a bigger screwup.

You have 3 centres, all coming up for contracts within a 2 year span. Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, and Mikhail Grabovski. Only one of them plays well with your star player, and none are remotely well suited for the 3rd line. Rather than making a decision and sticking to it, we try to do everything, and force our way into buying out Grabovski.

We then trade a couple of 2nds for 1 year of injury-prone Dave Bolland to replace Grabo. Then have to trade another 2nd, to get a replacement for Bolland in Peter Holland. We then have to use a regular buyout on JML/Gleason, because we used the others on Grabovski/Komisarek. Grand scheme of things, don't buy out Grabovski, don't sign Clarkson or trade for Bolland, and you've got no cap penalties, 3 more 2nd round picks, and are paying $1.5m more for Grabovski over the next 3 years than the Isles are paying over 4.

No argument here.

You cannot compare a small market team to a big market team. Big market teams are big for a reason, they sell-out (at ridiculous prices) and have huge corporate and marketing deals. They cannot bilk their supporters and spend to the floor. Look what happened to the Blue Jays attendance once fans got the perception that Rogers was going through the motions with payroll.

You can't compare the Leafs to the Blue Jays. Just have a look at the thread called "do you ever get sick of being a TML fan" or whatever it's called and you'll see why.

 

[Mess]

You're missing the point. The Isles don't spend and, understandably so, finish low in the standings. The Leafs do spend and also finish low in the standings. The question therein is why can't Leafs management outperform NY's with much more resources available to them?

Agreed the point can't be any clearer.

If you spend like the top teams but finish among the bottom teams then who you spent your money on (ie cap management) in assembling your team that produces the results is at the forefront of the problem.

The end doesn't justify the spending means.

 

[TMLegend]

The answer is the Leafs have a much brighter future than the NYI, just have patience.

Debatable at best imo. The Isles have two top 5 picks waiting in the wings in Griffin Reinhart and Ryan Strome as well young players like Calvin De Haan, Travis Hamonic and of course, John Tavares.

I'd wager a fair amount of money of the Isles finishing above the Leafs next season through the combination of their young guys improvement and the signings they made this past offseason.

 

[Northern Dancer]

No argument here.



You can't compare the Leafs to the Blue Jays. Just have a look at the thread called "do you ever get sick of being a TML fan" or whatever it's called and you'll see why.

Why not the Jays were the toast of MLB drawing over 4 million fans in back to back seasons just 20 years ago.

Look, I don't deny the leafs have made some royal screw-ups the past few years but for anyone to take the path that they would be content with the results if the Leafs were at the cap floor is ridiculous.
That does not mean spending like a drunken sailer (i.e Pegula in Buffalo). I have faith Shanahan knows exactly what he is doing.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Why not the Jays were the toast of MLB drawing over 4 million fans in back to back seasons just 20 years ago.

Look, I don't deny the leafs have made some royal screw-ups the past few years but for anyone to take the path that they would be content with the results if the Leafs were at the cap floor is ridiculous.
That does not mean spending like a drunken sailer (i.e Pegula in Buffalo). I have faith Shanahan knows exactly what he is doing.

If they were the Leafs they would have drawn over 4 million fans every year since.

 

[Northern Dancer]

If they were the Leafs they would have drawn over 4 million fans every year since.

Maybe, but NOT at at an average ticket price at the top of the NHL.

 

[Northern Dancer]

Debatable at best imo. The Isles have two top 5 picks waiting in the wings in Griffin Reinhart and Ryan Strome as well young players like Calvin De Haan, Travis Hamonic and of course, John Tavares.

I'd wager a fair amount of money of the Isles finishing above the Leafs next season through the combination of their young guys improvement and the signings they made this past offseason.

If that evolves then Toronto will be massive sellers at the TD and this entire topic of cap strategy is a complete waste if time.

 

[The CyNick]

So this year with this roster we're not Cup competitive while in year 7 of the current rebuild.

Next year the Cap goes up $5 mil and Leafs now split that amount between Kadri and Bernier who become RFAs. So same team as this year only now paying our own players more money. Our current bottom 6 almost all become UFAs as 1 year deals end, and Leafs go out an get a new set of bargain basement <$1.5 mil players to fill in start promoting prospects.

Rinse and repeat for the next 3-5 years making our rebuild a 10-12 year undertaking. By then Kessel will be 32 and Phaneuf 35 and now we will be considered a Cup competitor, and we're counting on an organization with a limited success at the draft to start providing key talent.

So Leafs are just killing time for the next 3-5 years until we're ready if everything goes well, & so the cap for the next few years means little because of simply biding time for the future at present?

guys can get traded

look at the Kings. At one point you would have said guys like Johnson, Simmonds and Schenn were or would be part of their core. They became Carter and Richards. Carter himself had signed a long term deal in Philly and was quickly moved...twice!

With guys like Kessel and Dion all we did was ensure our assets remain with us. What we do with them to shape the team in the future is anyone's guess. Maybe they are part of the winning puzzle maybe they are not. 29 teams fail each year. so it's not like everyone else's "plan" is working out.

 

[The CyNick]

2011-12
NYI 79 points (4th last) ... Toronto 80 points (5th last)

2013-14
NYI 79 poins (5th last) .. Toronto 84 points (8th last)

Isles spend to the Cap floor while Toronto spends to the cap ceiling +$16 mil more on players using all their cap space and both team produce relatively similar results finishing bottom 8 overall.

NYI is explainable as they're rebuilding and spending far less on talent and keeping lots of free cap space in reserve and drafting high as a result.

Toronto is spending however like the teams that are cup competitive, so why are the results similar to one spending near the cap floor?.

Again this season NYI have one of the lowest salaries and Leafs one of the highest so what happens if the NYI finish above Toronto?

Unless you are the Leafs accountant, you shouldn't care about the correlation between poor results and high salary spending.

won't finishing lower make you happy since we will be getting a higher draft pick? Need those home grown guys right?

What advantage does the cap space give the Isles? are they going to land Stamkos when he becomes a UFA?

 

[ACC1224]

2011-12
NYI 79 points (4th last) ... Toronto 80 points (5th last)

2013-14
NYI 79 poins (5th last) .. Toronto 84 points (8th last)

Isles spend to the Cap floor while Toronto spends to the cap ceiling +$16 mil more on players using all their cap space and both team produce relatively similar results finishing bottom 8 overall.

NYI is explainable as they're rebuilding and spending far less on talent and keeping lots of free cap space in reserve and drafting high as a result.

Toronto is spending however like the teams that are cup competitive, so why are the results similar to one spending near the cap floor?.

Again this season NYI have one of the lowest salaries and Leafs one of the highest so what happens if the NYI finish above Toronto?

I'm sure some here will be delighted but it matters not to me as long as they are in the top 8.

 

[The CyNick]

Agreed the point can't be any clearer.

If you spend like the top teams but finish among the bottom teams then who you spent your money on (ie cap management) in assembling your team that produces the results is at the forefront of the problem.

The end doesn't justify the spending means.

again, that money can't be squirreled away for later. so you might as well spend it in an effort to win. As you yourself pointed out even using the islanders strategy of not spending to the cap has resulted in no franchise players in the years you mentioned and put them in the same ball park as teams spending a lot. Neither formula is getting the job done right now.

 

[The CyNick]

Debatable at best imo. The Isles have two top 5 picks waiting in the wings in Griffin Reinhart and Ryan Strome as well young players like Calvin De Haan, Travis Hamonic and of course, John Tavares.

I'd wager a fair amount of money of the Isles finishing above the Leafs next season through the combination of their young guys improvement and the signings they made this past offseason.

They might. But this whole game is about winning the Cup. If you don't do that you fail. Neither the Leafs or Isles are winning the Cup anytime soon.

 

[Delicious Dangles*]

Leafs contracts 3 to 8 years. 2.95M cap hit or above.

1. Kessel
2. Dion
3. Lupul
4. Clarkson
5. JVR
6. Bozak
7. Gardiner
8. Komarov (50K shy of 3M)
9. Robidas

Leafs have 15M to sign Kadri, Bernier, and Franson to LTC, plus 6 other players, if they re-sign the former players to LTC this would equal 12 long term contracts.

LA. 3 years or longer contracts at 3M or more.

1. Brown
2. Richards
3. Carter
4. Gaborik
5. Doughty
6. Voynov
7. Quick

15-16 Projected Capspace:

LA 16.635M

Toronto 15.497M

LA are cup winners 2 out of the last 3 years, they are significantly positioned better than the Leafs are going into next summer and long term. Better players, better contracts. Is this incorrect?

It's all here.

http://www.capgeek.com/mapleleafs/

LMAO!

So you arbitrarily add a dollar amount limit for some unknown reason (in addition to your wild assertion that 3 years is long term, something which you have not backed up with reasoning at all) that takes off 2 LA players so that you can try and hide the fact that THERE ARE THE EXACT SAME NUMBER OF PLAYERS ON BOTH TEAMS, 9. You can't just make up arbitrary classifications to make sure King and Greene don't count, lol.

On top of that, why are you automatically assuming that our 2 RFAs and one UFA (who we have signed to multiple consecutive 1-year contracts) will sign long-term contracts (that fit inside your wacky criteria), yet you continuously fail to mention that LA has 6 RFAs next year. Why are they not signing all of them (and one UFA) to long-term contracts, like we apparently are?

I would disagree that LA is better positioned because of their "long-term contracts". I would say that they are better positioned because of their playoff experience and complimentary players, not these wacky assertions which you continuously fail to back up in any transparent way.

It's all here.

http://www.capgeek.com/mapleleafs/