L'Art Scelleur - Part II - Recovery Edition

[PricePkPatch*]

Reached 1000 posts.. soo..

Come on, Lars!!! You are worth a lot more than what you are playing!

please increase your trade value

Click to read more...

 

[Skip Bayless]

In Lars I trust.

 

[Whitesnake]

And I thought it was L'Harceleur.

Or....Lard, c'est l'heure. Or.....L'Or sait l'heure.

 

[HabsFan76]

Is it just me or does Eller's skating seem sluggish so far this year? From what I have seen before, he used to much more faster and explosive when skating.

 

[Team_Spirit]

Sekac-Eller-Weise

Bournival-Eller-Sekac

 

[No More Subban]

Prediction: Eller with 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points vs Vancouver

 

[MasterDecoy]

Prediction: Eller with 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points vs Vancouver

my prediction: 0 goal, 0 assist, 1 minor

ok, but honestly, bourque came so close many times, statistically, he's gonna score at some point

 

[ECWHSWI]

Sekac-Eller-Weise

Bournival-Eller-Sekac

why do you want a 4th liner on a 3rd line ?

 

[Kriss E]

Patches is probably our streakiest player, there's no sugarcoating that. When he does good the line does good, when he does bad the line does bad.

Which further proves the point that he is carrying his line, hence why many of us want to switch the lines up so that Max doesn't have the burden of being entirely responsible for the production of his line. Isn't it simple? Max is not Crosby, yet he's being asked to carry his linemates the same way Crosby is. It's ridiculously Pejorative Slured.

But just that we are on the same page - he was used in the same manner last playoff and he did produce- Right?

No, he was not used in the same manner in the Playoffs. That is the problem here. People think Eller is getting the same role as last year. He's not. He's in a tougher situation than Plekanec was in last season. I brought it a few pages back already.
Eller is less talented than Plekanec, we can all agree on that, and yet he's used in an even more difficult role than Plekanec was in last year.
Plek barely cracked the 40pt mark last year and that was still with 1 or 2 top 6 wingers, on top of top minutes and a regular PP shift. So what exactly do you expect Eller to do in an even tougher situation??
People love to whine at Eller without even realizing just how difficult his situation is.

You brought up his last POs. Apparently you want to use that to show that he should be able to produce with those guys.
Well, first of all, his line is used in a much tougher situation than last POs. Second, Bourque decided to start playing. Third, he was given another decent winger in Gionta. What happened? Well he lead all forwards in points. Isn't that telling enough for you to consider the fact that maybe, JUST MAYBE, this guy would perform a lot better if we used him properly?? And if we want to use him as a pure checking line center with ineffective offensive winger, then we shouldn't really judge his offensive contribution??
I mean come on here...

I'm arguing with people insisting that Eller is an offensive juggernaut being held back because of the coach and Rene Bourque.

There isn't one person here that said Eller was an offensive juggernaut.
People have said that his production, considering context, is completely understandable and that expecting more is actually an unrealistic expectation. Those same people seem to believe that comparing DD or Plekanec, without considering context, is entirely fair. It's really insane. Some people just throw logic or rationale out the window when it comes down to analyzing Eller.

Here's the reality, DD=Eller. Except one is a playmaker and the other is more of a two way hybrid (think of a less talented Plekanec). Heck, I'll even say that DD is a bit more offensively talented. It doesn't mean Eller should be centering our go-to line though, just like DD shouldn't either. For the fun of it thought, tell me, just how many points do you think Eller would gather if he was centering Max and Gallagher, getting close to 18min of ice, and 2:30 of PP time, while getting close to 70% of off.zone starts? And how many points do you think DD would get playing 14min with no PP time starting in the Off.zone half the amount of time he does playing with Bourque and Weise versus tougher opponents??
This isn't about people believing Eller is a juggernaut. This isn't even a DD vs Eller situation. This is about people trying to put things in perspective and others categorically ignoring the facts just because they have a preconceived opinion on Eller. It is completely Pejorative Slured.

Its easy and convenient to dump on Murray.

Meanwhile, because we do not have effective defensive DMen, Markov is now forced to play 30 minutes per game........because 6 minutes of that time last night was on the PK.

Subban, our, $9M ™ DMan is not getting the minutes on the PK. Murray was more valuable than you think. Without him, Markov has been forced to carry the load because Gilbert, Subban, Tinordi (rookie) and yes Weaver have not been solid on D.

But that's another subject for another thread.

All Eller has to do is score points. With his linemates or in spite of his linemates. As of this season, he has not put himself in a position to ask for a promotion nor is he deserving of the propping up that he is getting on this thread.

It all rests on his shoulders (or on his stick). I hope he succeeds.

Murray was terrible and that's why he couldn't get a contract. Drop this moronic belief of yours already.

There is no reason for Markov to have been used as much as he has, and we finished as a top PK team with Subban getting a big role on it. There's no reason why he couldn't kill more penalty time. It's a coaching decision, not a roster problem.

Eller has 2pts in last 5gp, +1, 9 shots on goal. His line also regularly outchanced their opponents. Those are better stats than the guy centering our go-to offensive line. But ya, sure, Eller is the one who's not playing up to par...

 

[Kriss E]

Thanks for the insight. Advanced stats are not valued or used by everyone, so I definitely appreciate you taking the time to elaborate. The sticky question is, how much reliability should we place on these numbers and comparables? If they are compelling and indicative of suppressed potential, would the Habs' brass not be cognizant of it?

I apologize if my post came across as anecdotal, I did not engage into any research or number-crunching. I do understand that there are arguments to be made on the basis of Corsi stats, same as when Gilbert mad puck possession skills get snuffed by a general impression of nonchalance and lack of physicality -- definitely a great exercise to look under the hood so to speak.

Maybe, maybe not. This is where the scene from Moneyball where you have the old scouts believing in subjective analysis vs the numbers guy come into place.
It's possible that they are aware of it. It's also possible that they choose to ignore it. One thing we do know for a fact is that coaches (and managers) take stupid decisions regularly.
Just look at some posters here when discussing certain subjects. You can bring them all the stats and actual proof in the world that goons are absolutely useless to your team, they still decide to ignore it based on improvable ''tangibles''.
If you're a rationale person, you will come to the conclusion that you have. That is, ''if those numbers are correct, then surely the Habs brass would buy into them''. Well no. They don't have to buy into them. Just like no matter how horrible Bouillon's stats are on the PP, he still got to regularly play there, and to nobody's surprise, it never worked.
Therrien does not seem like the progressive coach type. Stats or no stats. Facts or no facts. He will do what his ''gut'' tells him to do. He's even used that ''gut'' explanation sometimes in press conferences for some of his decisions.

So, if the above is reliable and is a measuring stick that professionals will rely upon, how does this info fail to trickle down to Therrien?

Therrien can choose to apply or ignore it. It's clear which option he followed.

Direct observation is inherently flawed but necessary still. Biggest issue a lot of us have, is that we're watching televised games where players disappear from the screen, get off the ice or get on without us being able to track them for their full shift, so we only get to revel in what the camera offers at any particular time. Now, even on an observational basis, you'd prefer someone who is a trained eye and who is attending the game, providing the best complement to what the stats are saying.

Well that's it. You only see a part of the action. Precisely why taking whatever you see on a TV screen as the truth and nothing but the truth is the perfect way to come to a flawed conclusion. You also do not factor in the bias factor. Some people are just waiting for a certain player to make a mistake so they can further back up their initial belief. Take Subban for example. People loved to say he's a defensive liability. So PK can make a million awesome plays all game, if he coughs up the puck one time and it leads to a scoring chance or even worse, a goal, then that's all they will focus on.
Stats can give you a broader analysis of the performance. In no way do they predict the future, and you also have to be careful how to use them. Using the +/- is a perfect example as to how you can use stats to come to a poor conclusion.
But in this particular subject, there's no confusion. Eller is being used in a more difficult situation Plekanec was last year. How much importance Therrien puts on this vs production is an entirely different matter.
If Therrien feels like Eller should be able to produce more than he should despite his incredibly tough minutes, then it's his decision. It doesn't mean he's being realistic.

I definitely like how you were able to make a parallel analysis with Pleks to support your contentions about Eller. Only thing I am grappling with is the subjective element -- watching Eller so many times, give up possession in the offensive zone. Again, it's just subjective viewing -- what are the stats saying about his ability to control the puck in the offensive zone? Is Eller more of a shooter or a playmaker, or both, according to advanced stats?

What will it take to see his potential untap to the level of a top 6 player, as your stats analysis appears to suggest -- is it merely about a player being misused or not playing with complementary linemates?

The stats show that Eller's line regularly outchances its opposition.
Eller is more of a hybrid, a la Plekanec, albeit less talented.
There isn't one regular NHL player that untaped its top 6 potential while playing on the 3rd line. Not one.
You don't have to look very far really. Just look at Plekanec's usage. As soon as he showed potential, we moved him up to top 6. Look at DD. As soon as he showed potential, we moved him up to top 6 as well.
I believed this was what we were naturally going to do when Eller scored 30pts in 46gp. We started the year doing it too. You even had Eller and Galchenyuk mention in interviews after games at the beginning of last season how their role is a little more difficult this year because their minutes are tougher (tough match ups/deployment). But it was short lived because our other lines were doing very little. Both sophomore wingers (Galch-Galla) got promoted, Eller was left back and his PP time kiled.
Eller is not going to score 40 ES being used as he is. He won't even crack 30. It will never happen, not with his current wingers playing as they have.

 

[PricePkPatch*]

Damn. Lard C'Est L'Heure is a damn good title. Should i change it?

 

[Milhouse40]

Since Therrien/Bergevin arrive Two years...not taking out any parts, not leaving any parts out either.
Not going to put only 5-on-5 stats or % of O-zone Start or the huge difference between the quality of
linesmates each center had and quality of competition. Only basic PP time is include.

This is the thing plain and simple:

Plekanec: 98pts in 160 games (0.61pts per game) 382 minutes of Powerplay Time.
Desharnais: 94pts in 159 games (0.59pts per game) 445 minutes of Powerplay Time.
Eller: 70pts in 150 games (0.46pts per game) 128 minutes of Powerplay Time.

And all the crap i kept hearing for 2 years is:

- Desharnais is the best offensive center
- Desharnais is the best playmaker/best passer
- Desharnais is the only who can drive an offensive line and play with Max
- Desharnais is the best one for the job

Where, when and how?

- Eller got absolutely no vision
- Eller can't produce offensively
- Plekanec lost his offense / don't have chemistry with anyboby
- Plekanec should be playing on a third line as a defensive only center
- Plekanec or Eller should traded for Galchenyuk but Desharnais: Impossible


Seriously, Desharnais isn't even our best offensive center in terms of points despites getting a lot more Powerplay time than anybody. Plekanec is...never even mind all the other factor in favor of Desharnais.

Eller sucked? Not a good 3rd liner? What do you expect? Since Therrien/Bergevin's arrival, he's produce 0.13pts per games (10pts over an 82 game season) less than Desharnais who played 317 minutes more on the powerplay. 24 more points with 300+Minutes of PP. with 9 more games played over 2+ years is the difference between Desharnais and Eller. That's the difference between our 3rd line center and 1st line center.

For two years, i kept reading and hearing poeple say how much Desharnais is better than Plekanec and Eller and just with basic stats, it's such an obvious load of crap!

 

[Not The One]

In the spirit of the great Bruins well of excuses, I now give you the

Top TEN list of Lars Eller (fanboy) Excuses

10) “I’m kind of like the Danish Gretzky, you know…”

9) “They took my Galchies and Gallies, my precioussesssssssssssssss.”

8) “CORSI rocks, man!”

7) “DD stole my spot! He’s soooooooooooo tiny. What’s up with that?”

6) “I’m a first rounder. Thou must worship my pre-draft ranking.”

5) “What do you mean the Olympic break lasted three weeks? I was sure it was three months.”

4) “My coach hates me, and I don’t know why! All I ever did was steal his pants after a couple of practices. Do they make my butt look big?”

3) “DD is 70 kg and I’m 98 kg. If F=mv2 then at equal speed I’m at least 1,4 times better than him. CQFD.”

2) “Goals and assists are for sissies, real men do Defensive Zone starts.”

...

1) “BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK!”

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

I don't mind his lack of offensive game, but his lackluster defensive game and his several mistakes so far leading to scoring chances and goals is what bothers me.

 

[Rapala]

In the spirit of the great Bruins well of excuses, I now give you the

Top TEN list of Lars Eller (fanboy) Excuses

10) “I’m kind of like the Danish Gretzky, you know…â€

9) “They took my Galchies and Gallies, my precioussesssssssssssssss.â€

8) “CORSI rocks, man!â€

7) “DD stole my spot! He’s soooooooooooo tiny. What’s up with that?â€

6) “I’m a first rounder. Thou must worship my pre-draft ranking.â€

5) “What do you mean the Olympic break lasted three weeks? I was sure it was three months.â€

4) “My coach hates me, and I don’t know why! All I ever did was steal his pants after a couple of practices. Do they make my butt look big?â€

3) “DD is 70 kg and I’m 98 kg. If F=mv2 then at equal speed I’m at least 1,4 times better than him. CQFD.â€

2) “Goals and assists are for sissies, real men do Defensive Zone starts.â€

...

1) “BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK!â€

This is amusing as is every derogatory post aimed at Eller.
Our 2nd line and what was our 3rd line during most of the playoffs struggles so let's attack Eller.
Chucky look's poised to Take DD's job so let's attack Eller.
We have spent 3yrs trying to make 1 line work, we've thrown everthing at it and where are we today?
Attacking Eller that's where. Closing in on a year of close to single digit PP let's attack Eller.
We have never been able to call ourselves a consistent two line team, let's attack Eller.

No use questioning Mr. 95% first 10 game rating is it?
No use questioning his pig headed choices over this 3yr span.
No use pointing our finger directly at our second line and let them know it's not good enough.
Let's attack Eller.

Read my lips Eller is not the issue.

 

[Skip Bayless]

I don't mind his lack of offensive game, but his lackluster defensive game and his several mistakes so far leading to scoring chances and goals is what bothers me.

When he's slumping offensively the rest of his game goes to ****. I think he has a hard time accepting his role.

 

[Skip Bayless]

As to the "Eller has no vision" claim, I think it's easy to perceive it that way. But I find that it has more to do with him not trusting his linemates.

 

[Leon Lucius Black]

Pacioretty - Desharnais - Sekac
Bournival - Eller - Gallagher

The Desharnais line has been creating nothing and Gallagher is just wasted there, Sekac at least can work the corners and help with puck possession on that line. Bournival isn't great offensively but he'll forecheck his ass off and at least create chances for Eller/Gallagher.

 

[DRGO]

Good suggestion!

I like both lines you are proposing... It can't be that bad and it would give two big wingers to Desharnais...

 

[Kriss E]

Pacioretty - Desharnais - Sekac
Bournival - Eller - Gallagher

The Desharnais line has been creating nothing and Gallagher is just wasted there, Sekac at least can work the corners and help with puck possession on that line. Bournival isn't great offensively but he'll forecheck his ass off and at least create chances for Eller/Gallagher.

Cannot touch DD's line. Until this coach decides to mix it up, it's pointless to even think he will.

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

In the spirit of the great Bruins well of excuses, I now give you the

Top TEN list of Lars Eller (fanboy) Excuses

10) “I’m kind of like the Danish Gretzky, you know…â€

9) “They took my Galchies and Gallies, my precioussesssssssssssssss.â€

8) “CORSI rocks, man!â€

7) “DD stole my spot! He’s soooooooooooo tiny. What’s up with that?â€

6) “I’m a first rounder. Thou must worship my pre-draft ranking.â€

5) “What do you mean the Olympic break lasted three weeks? I was sure it was three months.â€

4) “My coach hates me, and I don’t know why! All I ever did was steal his pants after a couple of practices. Do they make my butt look big?â€

3) “DD is 70 kg and I’m 98 kg. If F=mv2 then at equal speed I’m at least 1,4 times better than him. CQFD.â€

2) “Goals and assists are for sissies, real men do Defensive Zone starts.â€

...

1) “BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK! BORK!â€

Poor attempt at being funny or whatever you're trying to do.

 

[hototogisu]

As to the "Eller has no vision" claim, I think it's easy to perceive it that way. But I find that it has more to do with him not trusting his linemates.

Well come on. That's kind of like saying "it's OK that Desharnais never shoots, he just trusts his linemates to score more". Both are silly ways to excuse a player's flaws.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Well come on. That's kind of like saying "it's OK that Desharnais never shoots, he just trusts his linemates to score more". Both are silly ways to excuse a player's flaws.

What?

It's nothing like saying that. I wasn't alluding to anything with Desharnais. I'm giving you my take on Eller not feeding his linemates as often as he wants to, I'm not excusing him, I'm simply giving my take on what the flaw is.

Now Desharnais not shooting enough is another matter.Some people say that it's because he's not confident in his shot or has a good one, I say that his reflex is pass first and it's tough for him to decide what to do on the spot because he's so used to slowing down the play in order to create time and space.

It's not Desharnais vs Eller for me. Please don't put words into other people's mouths.

 

[hototogisu]

What?

It's nothing like saying that. I wasn't alluding to anything with Desharnais. I'm giving you my take on Eller not feeding his linemates as often as he wants to, I'm not excusing him, I'm simply giving my take on what the flaw is.

Now Desharnais not shooting enough is another matter.Some people say that it's because he's not confident in his shot or has a good one, I say that his reflex is pass first and it's tough for him to decide what to do on the spot because he's so used to slowing down the play in order to create time and space.

Right...and I'm saying it's just as lame an excuse as the one I dreamed up for Desharnais. Frankly it does what a lot of posters here constantly do for Eller, which is to take the blame off him and put it on anyone else (linemates, coach, etc).

 

[Skip Bayless]

Right...and I'm saying it's just as lame an excuse as the one I dreamed up for Desharnais. Frankly it does what a lot of posters here constantly do for Eller, which is to take the blame off him and put it on anyone else (linemates, coach, etc).

Maybe if you'd try to think harder and objectively, you wouldn't see this as Eller vs Desharnais. And again, I'm not excusing Eller nor Desharnais.

Grow up.