Larry Fisher's 5th annual mock draft (7 Rounds)

Larry Fisher

Registered User
Sep 19, 2002
4,038
1,209
Kelowna, B.C.
As per tradition, with the Stanley Cup handed out last night, my fifth annual NHL mock draft is published today. Prospect junkies rejoice, I did all seven rounds this year and tacked on 115 honourable mentions for good measure. Let me know what you think of the Oilers picks: http://thehockeywriters.com/5th-annual-nhl-mock-draft-2016-round-1/

And here's the updated version published on the eve of the draft to reflect recent trades, rankings and feedback from scouts, media and passionate fans: http://thehockeywriters.com/on-second-thought-last-minute-mock-draft/
 
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Seachd

Registered User
Mar 16, 2002
24,939
8,947
I might have a look at it later, but I just tried right now, and it opened 4 tabs to have the whole draft there at once.

If the whole thing can't be on one page, why not have links at the bottom to the next round, and why do they have to open a new tab?
 

SDig14

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
12,029
1,143
Edmonton, AB
I like Carter Hart, I am just firmly against drafting any goalies, especially with essentially a late first round pick.

Let someone else develop them for 5-8 years and then just give them a 2nd round pick once you know they are already good.
 

Larry Fisher

Registered User
Sep 19, 2002
4,038
1,209
Kelowna, B.C.
The new tab is a personal preference thing Seachd, some like to have all five windows open for easy referencing back and forth. Others hate it. Hope you give it a read later as I know you're one of the bigger prospect guys on this board.
 

McDoused

Registered User
Feb 5, 2007
16,282
13,141
Katy <3
This is somewhat hard to navigate on the mobile. Solid mock. Two things really stand out to me. I don't see Arizona taking a forward and not sure why Johansen fell so far.
 
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belair

Jay Woodcroft Unemployment Stance
Apr 9, 2010
38,641
21,835
Canada
Not a fan of the goalie at 32. I'd prefer one of the defensemen there and probably take Colton Point in the 5th or later. The two RW in the third are nice but are in the long-term boom or bust territory for me. It's not a particularly 'safe' draft for Edmonton.
 

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
75,604
35,381
Alberta
The Oilers pick 2 goalies and a NA one at 32? I don't like that pick at 32, I don't think it's good value for the Oilers.
 

ChaoticOrange

Registered User
Jun 29, 2008
50,581
29,245
Edmonton
I'd largely be happy with this draft, aside from Hart at 32.

The one thing that stands out to me is I don't know how smart it is to go the entire draft without selecting one centre.

Tkachuk, Hart, Allison, Quenneville, Kneirim, Sambrook, Menell, Vehilvelainen and Wiederer would be a very strong draft from the Oilers, but with who you had left on the board...

I'd much rather Howden, Asplund, or Fox at 32 over Hart.

I'd prefer Makinen to Kneirim, but that's a very Chiarelli pick.

I do like the multiple swings at puck moving RHD, though.
 

Beerfish

Registered User
Apr 14, 2007
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Great draft, including the goalie. I'd be happy to take the top goalie at 32. I would have preferred Samsonov in last years draft mind you.
 

redgrant

Registered User
Nov 2, 2013
6,306
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Larry, realistically who do you think will go after oilers 4 pick harder Arizona or Montreal?
 

ChaoticOrange

Registered User
Jun 29, 2008
50,581
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Edmonton
Great draft, including the goalie. I'd be happy to take the top goalie at 32. I would have preferred Samsonov in last years draft mind you.

My biggest thing is i've seen quotes from goalie scouts saying they'd have a really hard time recommending to their GM that he take a goalie in the first two rounds.

I'd be fine with a guy like Sawchenko, Marmenlind, or Gustafsson with one of our 3rds, though.
 

Larry Fisher

Registered User
Sep 19, 2002
4,038
1,209
Kelowna, B.C.
It's true that goalies are tough to gauge long-term, but I really like Hart. Then again, I really liked Marek Schwartz in his WHL days too and he turned into a total bust. As a former goalie, I pay close attention to that position and like to think I have a good read on them, but I've been wrong as much as I've been right. Only 60 goalies in the world are on NHL rosters at any given time, so is Hart one of the top 60 goalies in the world? Or will he be in a few years? I like his chances, but time will tell.

I assume Montreal will push hard to get to 4 or 5 for Dubois, but I don't expect Subban to be part of those conversations. Vancouver doesn't have a second-round pick and Montreal has two, so that might be a better fit assuming Dubois is there at 5 (according to my mock, he would be, and most seem to agree that Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi and Tkachuk will be 1-4 in some order). Vancouver might be more willing to drop back to 9 than Edmonton, or might make that move for less in return.

Arizona wants to pick 1st and will put all its energy towards landing Matthews. Falling short of that, the Coyotes might try to keep Dvorak and Tkachuk together but I doubt they would package both of their first-rounders (7-20) to move up 3 spots. It would be more like 7 and 53 (or 37) for 4 and not sure Edmonton wants to make that move either.
 
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thadd

Oil4Life
Jun 9, 2007
26,726
2,731
Canada
Holy cow I can't imagine how much time it took you to create that mock draft. Very solid piece of work.

While I don't really want to go with a goalie with our 32nd overall pick, I'd be pretty happy if Edmonton walked away with that group of kids at the draft.

Like someone that previously responded, I'd be a little surprised if Arizona went with another forward given the state of their blue line depth.
 

Beerfish

Registered User
Apr 14, 2007
19,513
5,665
My biggest thing is i've seen quotes from goalie scouts saying they'd have a really hard time recommending to their GM that he take a goalie in the first two rounds.

I'd be fine with a guy like Sawchenko, Marmenlind, or Gustafsson with one of our 3rds, though.

Those scouts are chicken, heck we handed away a early 2nd round pick in the perrron deal, we handed away an early 2nd round pick in the reinhart deal, we have drafted legends like moroz and musil in the early 2nd.

Top ranked goalie? go for it. I try and not let some recent history cloud my long term drafting (as in 'hey! the most recent successful teams have had later rounders or undrafted guys!)

And this is a need for us as well, brossoit for all of his good ahl play looked pure awful in his nhl games last year.
 

lakai17

Registered User
Aug 10, 2006
20,922
1,329
Great job of course. These are hard to do and take a lot out of a guy with these projects.

In my opinion Fabbro and Abramov are low but I value them higher than most of course. Caps have a identical player in Vrana already.

Loving the #32 selection unlike some here. Hoping for Hart, Howden or Girard fall to 32. Some just do not understand what composure does for a goaltender no matter the age.
 
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Larry Fisher

Registered User
Sep 19, 2002
4,038
1,209
Kelowna, B.C.
I'm a big fan of Hart too, got to see stone the Kelowna Rockets a few times this season. When he's on his game, he's unbeatable and you'd never know he was "short" by today's goalie standards. He is so positionally sound that there is nothing to shoot at on his good nights, he plays much bigger than he is if that makes sense. Granted, it's one thing to do that in junior where only a handful of players on each team have a pro-calibre shot. The NHL is a totally different beast, everybody is capable of picking corners, but I like Hart's chances of becoming an impact goalie. Something tells me he won't be there at 32 anyway. I could see the Leafs taking him at 29-30, but I could also see Hart going as high as the mid-teens. Yes, I'm that high on him.

Thanks for all the positive feedback in general, glad you all appreciate my efforts. It was a time-consuming project, and not necessarily the write-ups but deciding on the actual picks. It became a bit of an obsession, to the point where I was spending a half hour debating between a handful of prospects for the 203rd overall pick as an example. I tried to do my homework/research and not just pull names out of the hat. Even the list of honourable mentions, I had like 240 skaters left over and had to shorten that list to 100, which took hours. The goalie honourable mentions were even harder for me because I feel as though I didn't draft enough goalies in general and had way too many quality leftovers. That will be one of my regrets in hindsight I'm sure, that and perhaps drafting too many over-agers, but I can't wait to see the results.

Oh, and good call on comparing Abramov to Vrana, I see a lot of similarities there too, but can you ever have too much of a good thing? It sounds like the Capitals could be trading Marcus Johansson at the draft, so having Burakovsky, Vrana and Abramov as skilled young top-six wingers wouldn't be a bad thing. I can't see Washington passing on Abramov if he's still on the board.
 

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
75,604
35,381
Alberta
no worries here because the Oilers are simply too chicken to take a goalie at #32, especially when they can waste a late round pick on one. :shakehead

I don't understand your point. Picking a NA goalie early is a huge risk because they are so hard to develop, because you have to find space for them to develop.

Late picks on Euro goalies are nice because they can play and develop without worry of having to "find them space" to get games in.

Unless the goalie at @ 32 is a Demko type, it's generally not worth the risk and doesn't provide great value.
 

Larry Fisher

Registered User
Sep 19, 2002
4,038
1,209
Kelowna, B.C.
I would argue that Hart is very much a "Demko type". He's a local boy too. I think you guys are underrating Hart's potential if you don't see him as a "Demko type".
 

lakai17

Registered User
Aug 10, 2006
20,922
1,329
I also like the gamble you had on Logan Stanley in the 1st round.

The majority of the hfoil scouts just step on him due to his size and skating. Yet many do not understand the improvement on his game this past season or that he uses his size for his advantage. The size of him at his age only defines project defenceman.
 

Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
75,604
35,381
Alberta
I would argue that Hart is very much a "Demko type". He's a local boy too. I think you guys are underrating Hart's potential if you don't see him as a "Demko type".

I guess, and I could be wrong. I mean, Demko type, good enough to be 1st rounder.

Basically they have to be amazingly high end for a NA goalie to make sense in the early rounds. The Oilers aren't really in a position to give a guy like that much in terms of ice time, so a pick like this doesn't make sense for them, imo. I don't see the value for the Oilers.
 

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